What will happen in 2013? What value was created in 2012 in mobile gaming?

1. The Mobile Gaming Market Mess:
Who to believe in 2013?!
@benjaminjoffe
|
GMGC
2013

3. Geography
1. China
mostly
2. US
mostly
3. Mix
or
Other

4. How
is
your
company?
1. Very
profitable
2. Around
breakeven
3. Not
breaking
even
yet

7. I
spent
most
of
my
working
life
(11
years)
overseas,
especially
in
Japan,
China,
South
Korea
and
USA.
My
cultural
DNA
has
become
rather
complex.
13 Years Across Asia (& some US)"

8. Digital Naturalist"

9. • 150+
talks
&
500,000+
views
on
SlideShare
Speaker"

10. Mentor @ Startup Accelerators"

11. Angel Investor!
1. Gengo
(JP)
2. TokyoOtakuMode
(JP)
3. Cmune
(CN)
4. TwitMusic
(PH)
5. PayrollHero
(PH)
6. StoryPanda
(CA)
7. CuriousHat
(US)
8. YoGoMe
(MX)
9. TenderTree
(US)
10. SmartBites
(US)
Funded!
Funded!
Funded!
Funded!
Funded!

12. Other People’s Predictions!

15. Games.com
Predic`ons
• Big
Ktles
– Temple
Run
– The
Walking
Dead
• SubscripKon
model
• Kids
games
– Educa`onal,
– Based
on
books,
movies,
TV
shows

17. 1.5
million
ac`va`ons
per
day
1
billion
by
end
2013
Why
am
I
looking
down?

20. Market Figures!
“I’m bored. What could I play?”

21. $195m revenue, 45% toys"
$9B Valuation?"

22. $2.4m / day?"
$770m Valuation?"

23. $2m / day? TV ads"
$10B Market Cap"

25. What
in
common?

26. $200m in 2013?"
Valuation $1B?"

28. Market
Caps
• GREE
$4.0B
• DENA
$4.1B
• Gungho
$10.4B
• Zynga
$2.5B
• EA
$5.39B
• Ac`vision
Blizzard
$16.91B

29. Smaller
guys
• Korea
– Gamevil
$514
million
– Come2US
$458
million
• Japan
– Ateam
$280
million
– Drecom
$270
million
– Crooz
$265
million
– Klab
$187
million
– Enish
$124
million
– Voltage
$50
million
– Cave
$24
million
– Axel
Mark
$24
million
$1B
$1.2B

30. Value
Crea`on
in
Mobile
Gaming
• Japan
$20
billion
• Korea
$1
billion
• Europe
$10
billion
• US
?
• China
?

31. M&As
(for
memory)
• NGMOGO
$303
million
DeNA
(2010)
• OpenFeint
$103
million
GREE
(2011)
• Funzio
$210
million
GREE
(2012)
• Pokelabo
$170
million
GREE
(2012)
• OMGPOP
$180
million
Zynga
(2012)
• GungHo
$265
million*
Sojbank
(2013)
=
$1.2B

32. Source:
SerkanToto.com

33. Other
guys
• Temple
Run
• Gameloj
• Cut
the
Rope
• Talking
Tom
Cat
• Many,
many,
many
others

34. Billion-­‐dollar
mobile
genres?
• So
far
all
casual
&
mid-­‐core
• Console
/
PC
$1B
categories?
– Almost
untouched
on
mobile
&
tablets
– Shooters,
Racing,
Sports,
Music
&
Dance

35. 2011
2012
2013
Casual
Mid-­‐Core
Core

36. Metrics!
“At least it’s not meat”

37. Old
Metrics
• Registered
users
• MAU
• DAU
• ARPU
• ARPPU

38. New
Metrics
• Quality
DAU
(QDAU)
• 1,
2,
7,
30
days
Reten`on
• Conversion
to
paying
• LTV
• Number
of
Game
Sessions
• ROI
vs
UA

39. Problems
• App
discovery
– Apple
killing
discovery
apps
– Rankings

40. Problems
• App
discovery
– Apple
killing
discovery
apps
– Rankings
• CPI
– How
far
in
the
future
are
you
front-­‐running
revenue?

41. But
don’t
forget!
• Onboarding
flow
• Sense
of
progress
• Connec`on
• FUN

42. Communication or Entertainment?!
“I wish I hadn’t used SnapChat”

45. Messaging
Apps
=
New
Discovery
Channel?

48. Thanks!
谢谢大家！
benjamin@plus8star.com