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Measuring socio-economic development
– The Local Human Development Index
        Piotr Arak, Project Coordinator,
         UNDP Project Office Poland
    PhD Candidate, Institute for Social Policy,
              University of Warsaw
          Manchester, September 6, 2012
   MANCEPT Workshop on Well-being and Public Policy
Principles guiding the search for HDI:
• To find a measure that goes beyond income while
  retaining methodological soundness.
• To limit the number of variables to ensure
  simplicity and manageability.
• To construct a composite index rather than an
  extensive set of indicators.
• To merge social and economic indicators (ul Haq
  2003).
• Since 1990 the HDI has been gradually refined,
  but main principles remain unchanged.

                                                    2
About the Polish project
• Together with the Polish Ministry of Regional
  Development the UNDP Project Office in Poland is
  starting a project on a new operational measure of
  socio-economic development, which methodology will
  be based on the Human Development Index.
• National level indicators are only useful for international
  comparisons. They can indicate the specific problems
  and priorities of a country.
• But computation on a local level is important to reveal
  the kind of intra-national distribution that is critical for
  domestic policy-making (EU Funds and regional
  policy).

                                                                 3
Local Human Development Index
• Studies in disaggregated HDI have been initiated in a
  number of countries (Akder 1994, Ivanov & Peleah 2011).
• Within each country, there are significant disparities, gaps:
  among regions, between the sexes, between urban and
  rural areas.
• It‟s not about a ranking of municipalities or regions.
• It is about the way each of it has achieved its human
  development level (e.g. good economic performance at the
  expense of health or good educational opportunities
  offsetting delays in other areas).
• An attempt will be also made to make a retrospective
  analysis of LHDI, going back 6 years. This longitudinal
  approach would make possible not just monitoring trends
  over time but also linking the human development
  outcomes to major political developments, decisions taken
                                                                  4
Goal 1: unveiling the image of Poland




                                        5
Goal 2: linking policy inputs with
                outcomes
• We would be able to say something about the
  changes happening after accession to the
  European Union – in link with EU funding.
• Looking for a link between inputs (financial
  and infrastructural) of public policy and
  outcomes in the level of human development.



                                                 6
Possible levels of analysis (1)
Level                       General characteristics                   Known data issues in Poland
                                                                      Income (GDP data) are
NUTS 2 - Voivodeships       Large territorial formations, with        available
(Województwa)               population Administrative units.          Education data are available
                                                                      Health data are available
                                                                      Income (GDP data) are
NUTS 3 – Subregion          Subregional non-administrative units      available
(Podregiony)                used in Eurostat analyses.                Education data are available
                                                                      Health data are available
                            Smaller territorial formations, with a    GDP not available but
LAU 1 - Districts and
                            large variation of population (from       computation is possible using
city districts (Powiaty i
                            small districts to large cities as the    taxpayers income data
miasta na prawach
                            capital city of Warsaw). Administrative   Education data are available
powiatu)
                            units.                                    Health data are limited

                                                                      Limited data availability
LAU 2 - Municipalities      Lowest level territorial formations,
                                                                      HDI computation difficult or
(Gminy)                     administrative units.
                                                                      almost impossible
                                                                                                      7
Possible levels of analysis (2)
• An ideal attemt would be to compute the measure the LHDI at the
  LAU2 level as it is the closest level of authority to the citizen and the
  direct influence to their lives.
• Bearing in mind limited availability of appropriate data, we propose
  that in order to built reliable and valid LHDI, the primary unit of
  analysis for this study is LAU 1. This choice is further justified by
  activities pursued at the district level in Polish administrative system
  – including inter alia secondary education, and provision of health
  care (more important than at the LAU 2 level).
• Placing our analysis on the level of NUTS 2 wouldn‟t allow for a
  thorough examination of a local policy processes. Limited availability
  of data at the LAU 2 level impedes reliability of an indicator
  constructed at this level.
• The economical dimension is only possible to be computed using
  taxpayers income data.

                                                                              8
The basic level of anaylisis – LAU1




                                      9
New approach to regional policy
1. Defining and populating input indicators –
   the quantitative estimate of the personal,
   financial, physical and other resources (time
   is often being disregarded)
2. Defining and populating outcome indicators
   – the quantitative estimate of the change in
   the immediate area of intervention (improved
   access to, use of, better health, education
   outcomes)

                                                   10
Potential problems
• Avoid the error of confusing „input' indices from policy
  „outcomes'.
• As far as the international HDI treats this factors jointly,
  at this point we need to focus on dividing the indicators
  in two separate groups.
• The key is to find sufficient measures enabling
  computation outcome indicators at the local level, in
  order to estimate policy effects in the spatial
  dimension.
• Aside from policy outcomes you need also to take into
  consideration external factors, which can complement
  the dimensions of the HDI.
                                                                 11
Methodology
• The original HDI methodology suggests that the
  measurement of human development should focus on the
  three essential elements of human life: longevity (health),
  knowledge (education) and decent living standards
  (represented by income levels).
• Because of the differences in the indices used in the LHDI,
  we propose to use the computation method prior to the
  2011 HDI revival. In general the aim would be to transform
  a raw variable, into a unit-free index between 0 and 1
  (which allows different indices to be added together).
• Special effort must go into developing a simple quantitative
  measure to capture the many aspects of human life with
  sufficient data available at the local level (LAU1).

                                                                 12
Dimensions and indicators of the
            “outcome” Local HDI
Dimensions of
                    Economical            Educational              Health
development

                                          Share of children
                    Average total
                                          enrolled in pre-school   Life expectancy
                    taxpayers income
                                          education (3-5)

Human Development   Agricultural income
Indicators                                Average result of the
                    based on conversion
                                          middle school exam
                    hectares                                       Infant mortality
                                                                   rate
                    Sold production of    Share of people with
                    industry              tertiary education


                                                                                      13
Dimensions and indicators of the “input”
             Local HDI
Dimensions of
              Economical                  Educational       Health
development

              Budget of the local         Student-teacher   Average waiting time for
              government per capita       ratio             outpatient specialty care

                                                           Percentage of medical
Human                                                      emergency trips that
Development                               Local government exceeded the maximum
Indicators    EU funds distribution per   expenditures on amount of time specified by
              capita                      education per    law
                                          student
                                                            Population per primary care
                                                            physician
                                                                                          14
Single Local HDI may be not enough
• Fakuda Parr (2003) and Pinenda (2012) state that from the HDI‟s
  inception, it was explicitly recognized that the concept of human
  development is larger than what can be measured by the index.
• This creates certain policy challenges, since there may be situations
  where human progress may mask deterioration in other key aspects
  not covered in the index.
• For example, civic activity, environment pollution, sustainability of
  development, social cohesion, labour market conditions and digital
  engagement could be worsening at the same time as the HDI
  moves upward.
• This means that the UNDP must regularly update its methodologies
  and indicators, as well as try out different indices to better capture
  certain aspects of human development (Pineda 2012).



                                                                           15
Single Local HDI may be not enough
• The welcomed revision of the HDI in 2010 gave new
  indicators such as the education index, because the
  formerly used literacy indicator is losing meaning, since
  many countries have reached the upper limit.
• The HDI fails to capture important aspects of human
  development and the focus of the Human Development
  Report Office in recent years has been on refining the
  measurement of existing indicators, rather than on the
  inclusion of new dimensions.
• But in case of Poland we are going to take into account
  additional contextual measures, useful in exploring the
  concept of human development.

                                                              16
Context dimensions and indicators to
          human development
              Sustainable
             development         Poverty and
                                                                                          Digital
Dimension         and               social         Labout market     Civic activity
                                                                                        engagement
            sustainability of     exclusion
             development




                                 The share of
                                                   Employment (but                      Share of tax
                                beneficiaries of                     Voter turnout in
             Percentage of                           the data are                       declarations
Indicator                           social                            recent local
            treated sewage                          gathered only                         sent by
                                 assistance in                          elections
                                                    during census)                        internet
                                  population




                                                                                                       17
Reveiling the whole picture




                              18
Main data sources:
•   National Statistical Office,
•   National Health Service,
•   Ministry of Health,
•   Ministry of Finance,
•   Ministry of Regional Development,
•   Ministry of Labour and Social Policy,
•   Public Electoral Commission.

                                            19
What is more needed?
• A framework for measuring subjective well-being
  – maybe an internet site gathering information?
• Well-being as an contextual measure?
• Subjective social capital – trust in other people.
• What could be the basis? A study done every 2-
  years on a group of 20 thou people (Social
  Diagnosis) or a study on Social Cohesion
  conducted by the NSO (social trust and well-
  being questions) both not representative for the
  LAU1 level but computation and correlation can
  be done on the NUTS2 level.
                                                       20
The connection with well-being
• HDI falls into the objective category, as it reflects
  people‟s objective circumstances, basing on
  observable, quantitative statistics.
• Conversely, subjective indicators are based on
  the individual‟s perception of his/her status (e.g.
  level of happiness).
• The word “happiness” is often used in a general
  way. It does help to focus thinking and look for
  measures that count what matters in human life,
  which is not available in the vast datasets of
  statistical offices and governmental agencies.

                                                          21
Happiness and human development
• There is an interest in finding out how happy people are, such
  subjective measures will be of little help unless they can be
  combined with sufficient other information to build an understanding
  of what makes for better lives (Helliwell, Layard, Sachs 2012).
• Both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and should
  be complementing each other, but incorporation of subjective
  measures on the local level remain a considerable challenge.
• Nonetheless, a possible follow-up to this project could be targeted
  specifically at the measurement of subjective well-being, since it
  captures best how people rate the quality of their lives.
• What could be done is computation of the indicators listed with
  representative indicators of social capital and happiness on the
  NUTS2, and on the LAU1 level having in mind the quality of data.



                                                                         22
Happiness and human development as
            a policy goal
• Keeping happiness as a clear policy objective is
  important but difficult and risky. Focusing just on
  subjective perceptions is not sufficient.
• A robust “happiness and human development index”
  should be a combination of status and perception
  indicators.
• Designing such indicators is the minor challenge.
• The difficult – and most important – part is changing
  policies from a consumption-driven to “meaningful life
  driven” pattern. This entails a fundamental shift in
  values of the policymakers – something extremely
  difficult – but not impossible.

                                                           23
Thank you for your attention!



       piotr.arak@undp.org


                                24

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Measuring socio-economic development

  • 1. Measuring socio-economic development – The Local Human Development Index Piotr Arak, Project Coordinator, UNDP Project Office Poland PhD Candidate, Institute for Social Policy, University of Warsaw Manchester, September 6, 2012 MANCEPT Workshop on Well-being and Public Policy
  • 2. Principles guiding the search for HDI: • To find a measure that goes beyond income while retaining methodological soundness. • To limit the number of variables to ensure simplicity and manageability. • To construct a composite index rather than an extensive set of indicators. • To merge social and economic indicators (ul Haq 2003). • Since 1990 the HDI has been gradually refined, but main principles remain unchanged. 2
  • 3. About the Polish project • Together with the Polish Ministry of Regional Development the UNDP Project Office in Poland is starting a project on a new operational measure of socio-economic development, which methodology will be based on the Human Development Index. • National level indicators are only useful for international comparisons. They can indicate the specific problems and priorities of a country. • But computation on a local level is important to reveal the kind of intra-national distribution that is critical for domestic policy-making (EU Funds and regional policy). 3
  • 4. Local Human Development Index • Studies in disaggregated HDI have been initiated in a number of countries (Akder 1994, Ivanov & Peleah 2011). • Within each country, there are significant disparities, gaps: among regions, between the sexes, between urban and rural areas. • It‟s not about a ranking of municipalities or regions. • It is about the way each of it has achieved its human development level (e.g. good economic performance at the expense of health or good educational opportunities offsetting delays in other areas). • An attempt will be also made to make a retrospective analysis of LHDI, going back 6 years. This longitudinal approach would make possible not just monitoring trends over time but also linking the human development outcomes to major political developments, decisions taken 4
  • 5. Goal 1: unveiling the image of Poland 5
  • 6. Goal 2: linking policy inputs with outcomes • We would be able to say something about the changes happening after accession to the European Union – in link with EU funding. • Looking for a link between inputs (financial and infrastructural) of public policy and outcomes in the level of human development. 6
  • 7. Possible levels of analysis (1) Level General characteristics Known data issues in Poland Income (GDP data) are NUTS 2 - Voivodeships Large territorial formations, with available (Województwa) population Administrative units. Education data are available Health data are available Income (GDP data) are NUTS 3 – Subregion Subregional non-administrative units available (Podregiony) used in Eurostat analyses. Education data are available Health data are available Smaller territorial formations, with a GDP not available but LAU 1 - Districts and large variation of population (from computation is possible using city districts (Powiaty i small districts to large cities as the taxpayers income data miasta na prawach capital city of Warsaw). Administrative Education data are available powiatu) units. Health data are limited Limited data availability LAU 2 - Municipalities Lowest level territorial formations, HDI computation difficult or (Gminy) administrative units. almost impossible 7
  • 8. Possible levels of analysis (2) • An ideal attemt would be to compute the measure the LHDI at the LAU2 level as it is the closest level of authority to the citizen and the direct influence to their lives. • Bearing in mind limited availability of appropriate data, we propose that in order to built reliable and valid LHDI, the primary unit of analysis for this study is LAU 1. This choice is further justified by activities pursued at the district level in Polish administrative system – including inter alia secondary education, and provision of health care (more important than at the LAU 2 level). • Placing our analysis on the level of NUTS 2 wouldn‟t allow for a thorough examination of a local policy processes. Limited availability of data at the LAU 2 level impedes reliability of an indicator constructed at this level. • The economical dimension is only possible to be computed using taxpayers income data. 8
  • 9. The basic level of anaylisis – LAU1 9
  • 10. New approach to regional policy 1. Defining and populating input indicators – the quantitative estimate of the personal, financial, physical and other resources (time is often being disregarded) 2. Defining and populating outcome indicators – the quantitative estimate of the change in the immediate area of intervention (improved access to, use of, better health, education outcomes) 10
  • 11. Potential problems • Avoid the error of confusing „input' indices from policy „outcomes'. • As far as the international HDI treats this factors jointly, at this point we need to focus on dividing the indicators in two separate groups. • The key is to find sufficient measures enabling computation outcome indicators at the local level, in order to estimate policy effects in the spatial dimension. • Aside from policy outcomes you need also to take into consideration external factors, which can complement the dimensions of the HDI. 11
  • 12. Methodology • The original HDI methodology suggests that the measurement of human development should focus on the three essential elements of human life: longevity (health), knowledge (education) and decent living standards (represented by income levels). • Because of the differences in the indices used in the LHDI, we propose to use the computation method prior to the 2011 HDI revival. In general the aim would be to transform a raw variable, into a unit-free index between 0 and 1 (which allows different indices to be added together). • Special effort must go into developing a simple quantitative measure to capture the many aspects of human life with sufficient data available at the local level (LAU1). 12
  • 13. Dimensions and indicators of the “outcome” Local HDI Dimensions of Economical Educational Health development Share of children Average total enrolled in pre-school Life expectancy taxpayers income education (3-5) Human Development Agricultural income Indicators Average result of the based on conversion middle school exam hectares Infant mortality rate Sold production of Share of people with industry tertiary education 13
  • 14. Dimensions and indicators of the “input” Local HDI Dimensions of Economical Educational Health development Budget of the local Student-teacher Average waiting time for government per capita ratio outpatient specialty care Percentage of medical Human emergency trips that Development Local government exceeded the maximum Indicators EU funds distribution per expenditures on amount of time specified by capita education per law student Population per primary care physician 14
  • 15. Single Local HDI may be not enough • Fakuda Parr (2003) and Pinenda (2012) state that from the HDI‟s inception, it was explicitly recognized that the concept of human development is larger than what can be measured by the index. • This creates certain policy challenges, since there may be situations where human progress may mask deterioration in other key aspects not covered in the index. • For example, civic activity, environment pollution, sustainability of development, social cohesion, labour market conditions and digital engagement could be worsening at the same time as the HDI moves upward. • This means that the UNDP must regularly update its methodologies and indicators, as well as try out different indices to better capture certain aspects of human development (Pineda 2012). 15
  • 16. Single Local HDI may be not enough • The welcomed revision of the HDI in 2010 gave new indicators such as the education index, because the formerly used literacy indicator is losing meaning, since many countries have reached the upper limit. • The HDI fails to capture important aspects of human development and the focus of the Human Development Report Office in recent years has been on refining the measurement of existing indicators, rather than on the inclusion of new dimensions. • But in case of Poland we are going to take into account additional contextual measures, useful in exploring the concept of human development. 16
  • 17. Context dimensions and indicators to human development Sustainable development Poverty and Digital Dimension and social Labout market Civic activity engagement sustainability of exclusion development The share of Employment (but Share of tax beneficiaries of Voter turnout in Percentage of the data are declarations Indicator social recent local treated sewage gathered only sent by assistance in elections during census) internet population 17
  • 18. Reveiling the whole picture 18
  • 19. Main data sources: • National Statistical Office, • National Health Service, • Ministry of Health, • Ministry of Finance, • Ministry of Regional Development, • Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, • Public Electoral Commission. 19
  • 20. What is more needed? • A framework for measuring subjective well-being – maybe an internet site gathering information? • Well-being as an contextual measure? • Subjective social capital – trust in other people. • What could be the basis? A study done every 2- years on a group of 20 thou people (Social Diagnosis) or a study on Social Cohesion conducted by the NSO (social trust and well- being questions) both not representative for the LAU1 level but computation and correlation can be done on the NUTS2 level. 20
  • 21. The connection with well-being • HDI falls into the objective category, as it reflects people‟s objective circumstances, basing on observable, quantitative statistics. • Conversely, subjective indicators are based on the individual‟s perception of his/her status (e.g. level of happiness). • The word “happiness” is often used in a general way. It does help to focus thinking and look for measures that count what matters in human life, which is not available in the vast datasets of statistical offices and governmental agencies. 21
  • 22. Happiness and human development • There is an interest in finding out how happy people are, such subjective measures will be of little help unless they can be combined with sufficient other information to build an understanding of what makes for better lives (Helliwell, Layard, Sachs 2012). • Both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and should be complementing each other, but incorporation of subjective measures on the local level remain a considerable challenge. • Nonetheless, a possible follow-up to this project could be targeted specifically at the measurement of subjective well-being, since it captures best how people rate the quality of their lives. • What could be done is computation of the indicators listed with representative indicators of social capital and happiness on the NUTS2, and on the LAU1 level having in mind the quality of data. 22
  • 23. Happiness and human development as a policy goal • Keeping happiness as a clear policy objective is important but difficult and risky. Focusing just on subjective perceptions is not sufficient. • A robust “happiness and human development index” should be a combination of status and perception indicators. • Designing such indicators is the minor challenge. • The difficult – and most important – part is changing policies from a consumption-driven to “meaningful life driven” pattern. This entails a fundamental shift in values of the policymakers – something extremely difficult – but not impossible. 23
  • 24. Thank you for your attention! piotr.arak@undp.org 24