15 09-2008 Almir Guilherme Barbassa - Supply Chain for the Pre-salt Developme...
Ähnlich wie Antonio Carlos Pinto - "Pre-Salt: Challenges and Opportunities for the Brazilian Industry" - Presentation to the Citi (Energy Day) Congress
Ähnlich wie Antonio Carlos Pinto - "Pre-Salt: Challenges and Opportunities for the Brazilian Industry" - Presentation to the Citi (Energy Day) Congress (20)
2. The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the
expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect",
"forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous
expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and
uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of
operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations
exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the
presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
All projects forecasted herein are subject to approval by the appropriate stakeholders.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings
with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production
or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and
operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources,
that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
3. Summary
• History
• Development Strategy
• Material Results
• Technological Challenges
• Opportunities
4. Summary
• History
• Development Strategy
• Material Results
• Technological Challenges
• Opportunities
5. Pre‐Salt Province
Total area: 149.000 km²
Area already under concession: 41.750 km² (28%)
Area with Petrobras interest: 35.750 km² (24% of the total area)
Area without Petrobras interest: 6.000 km² (4% of the total area)
Area not under concession : 107.228 km² (72%)
Petrobras Exploratory Sucess Rate in Presalt Province => 85% (until 2009, 41 drilled wells)
Industry Benchmark => 30%
6. Blocks Consortium
BMS-8 BR (66%), SH (20%) e PTG (14%)
BMS-9 BR (45%), BG (30%) e RPS (25%)
BMS-10 BR (65%), BG (25%) e PAX (10%)
BMS-11 BR (65%), BG (25%) e PTG (10%)
BMS-21 BR (80%), PTG (20%)
BMS-22 EXX (40%), HES (40%) e BR (20%)
BMS-24 BR (80%), PTG (20%)
Shore Distance = 300 km
Total Area = 15.000 km2
10. Transfer of Rights with Compensation areas
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
11. Summary
• History
• Development Strategy
• Material Results
• Technological Challenges
• Opportunities
12. Integrated Planning Opportunity
Several blocks Operational Similar geological
acquired at the Partnership characteristics
same period
Challenging
water depth,
shore distance,
salt layer...
Petrobras as
Massive High risk and
operator in
exploratory high potential areas
several blocks
efforts
Huge Significant
High investment
discoveries technological
need
challenges
13. PLANSAL Structure
FPUs Critical Critical
Oil Regulatory Technology Resources - Resources -
Exploration Transference Aspects Development Engineering E&P
CO2
Oil Gas Production
HSSE Infrastructure Technology
Transportation Technology Development Development
Well
Gas Human Gas Technology
Transference Joint Ventures Resources Transportation Development
?
15. Development Strategy
Phase 0 Phase 1a Phase 1b
Information Gathering Operated Production > 1 MM bbl Innovation and Production
2008/2018 2013/2016 After 2017
• Appraisal wells • Guará Pilot • Innovation acceleration
• Extended Well Tests • Lula NE Pilot • Massive use of new
• Lula Pilot • Guará N technologies specially
tailored for Pre-Salt
• Cernambi S conditions
• 8 definitive production
systems (replicants)
• 4 Transfer of Rights
production units
19. Petrobras Estimated Production
5,382
7.6% p.y.
3,907
2,583
4.6% p.y.
1,810
alt
Pre‐s
1078
241
* Production curve does not currently assume any contribution from Transfer of Rights
20. Petrobras Estimated Total Recoverable Volumes in Brazil
Santos Pre‐Salt announced recoverable volumes including the transfer of
rights, can more than double Petrobras Brazilian reserves.
billion boe ~ 28-30 bn boe
30
5
25
Higher estimates
20
14 10
Lower estimates
8
15 29
10
15
5
0
Proved Cumulative Proved Potential
Transfer of Proved Reserves
Recoverable Production Reserves BR Recoverable (Lula,
Rights +
Volume BR from (SPE 2010) Cernambi, Iara,
Potential Recoverable
1953 - 2010 Petrobras Guará and Whales
+
1953 - 2010 Park), ranging from
Transfer of Rights
8.1 to 9.6
*SPE Criteria
21. Summary
• History
• Development Strategy
• Material Results
• Technological Challenges
• Opportunities
31. Investing in Technological Leadership
Expansion of CENPES makes it one of the
largest research center in the world Petrobras´s partnerships with 120 universities and
research centers has created one of the greatest
concentrations of energy research in the world
In the Technological Park of the Rio de Janeiro Federal
University, four R&D centers for major equipment and
services suppliers is currently under construction :
• Schlumberger • FMC Technologies
• Baker Hughes • Usiminas
Others companies are schedule to come to Brazil to
develop technological centers:
• Cameron
Petrobras Investments •TenarisConfab
• General Electric
R&D (2010‐14) • Vallourec & Mannesman
• Halliburton
• Weatherford
US$ 5.3 Billion • IBM
• Technip • Wellstream
32. Summary
• History
• Development Strategy
• Material Results
• Technological Challenges
• Opportunities
33. Pre‐Salt Opportunities
Scenario
Exploration and Production Development in several blocks;
Several operator partnerships in each block;
Several projects to be implemented in each block;
Each project will demand:
Sub-surface studies
Well drilling/completion
Subsea equipments Instalation
Subsea lines handling
Floating Production Units
Oil and gas flow
Future operation/maintanance for long time period
Strong local content orientation.
34. Petrobras E&P equipment and services demand
Installed Business Plan
Equipment
Dec/10 (2010‐2014)
Subsea Trees 803 500
Subsea Manifolds 25 30
Subsea Flexible
4,364 4000
Flowlines (km)
Umbilicals (km) 3,303 2200
Rigid Pipelines (km) 1,773 500
Delivery Plan
Current (to be contracted)
Critical Resources Situation Accumulated Value
Dec/10
2013 2015 2020
Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 14 26 31 53
Supply and Special Vessel 298 465 491 504
Production Platforms SS e FPSO 47 53 63 84
Others (Jacket and TLWP) 79 81 83 85
Source: Petrobras Investor Relations
35. Business Plan 2010‐14: Increased Investment
for Integrated Operations in Brazil
Total Capital Investment Plan ‐ 2010‐2014: US$ 224.1 bi
Petrobras’ Corporate Strategy to 2020 2%1%2% 1%
8% International
5%
Integrated Growth, Profitability and
Sustainability
Oil & gas production growth in a sustainable manner
that will approximately double our production in the 53%
next 10 years 33%
E&P Brazil
Focus in oil, oil products, petrochemicals, gas & 95%
Distribution
energy, biofuels, refining and distribution with an RTM
Biofuels
integrated and sustainable business model G&P
Corporate
Petrochemicals
Consolidate leadership in the Brazilian market of
Pre‐Salt: US$ 33.0 billion Post‐Salt: US$ 75.2 billion
natural gas, electricity generation and gas chemicals 15%
15%
3%
13%
Production (million boe/d)
18%
Be recognized as a benchmark among integrated
energy companies
84% 67%
Exploration Development Infrastructure
36. Local Content Policies and Strategies
Brazil has a determination to maximize value for
their own country and population, using the
same approach as Norway did in the 70’s.
• A stronger bargaining position caused policy •Creation of the local content program ‐ 2003
changes in 1972 •Petrobras recognizes opportunities to improve
• Application in 1973 licensing round cost
• Initial emphasis on procurement and human •effectiveness and quality standards in the local
capital supplying market
• “Local Content” through bidders lists and •Local suppliers usually provide After Sales faster
procurement reviews and friendlier when compared with foreign
• Transfer of managerial and operational skills companies
• Cooperation in research and development •Financing Agent (BNDES – Brazilian development
• Procurement: preference to domestic goods and bank) requires minimum local content for financing
services, to build up supply industries, 1972‐94 concession
• Transfer of knowledge, priority to human capital •The Petrobras Local Content policy is connected
to enhance research and development, 1972‐94 and contributes to the Petrobras Social
• Petroleum Fund, setting revenues aside to spend Responsibility Policy
proceeds only, since 1992