TAICCAT 2015期末簡報
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TaiCCAT期末簡報 Dec. 31, 2015 @ Room 10, MOST
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TAICCAT 2015期末簡報
- 1. Taiwan Integrated Research Programme on Climate Change Adaptation Technology, TaiCCAT Dec. 31, 2015 TaiCCAT
- 6. / ( ) VA Vulnerability assessment / ( ) EA Environmental system analysis / ( ) AG Adaptation governance IC interdisciplinary coordination D1: D2: D3: D4: D5:D6: S2: S3: S5: S1: S4: R1: R2: R3: R4: R5: R6: (2015)
- 7. http://www.taiccat.net/ . . . . . . . . . . . . . TaiCCAT . . . 2015 . 2014 . 2013 . 2012
- 11. http://sdl.ae.ntu.edu.tw/TaiCATS/ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ( ) • • • • • • • • • ( )
- 12. • • • • • • Technology Service Online Offline offline http://sdl.ae.ntu.edu.tw/TaiCATS/ D-I-K-W (Taiwan Climate Adaptation Technology Service, TaiCATS) http://sdl.ae.ntu.edu.tw/TaiCATS/
- 13. . . : . TAO (SCI) special issue: Climate Change Adaptation – Scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-making . ( : )
- 16. : 104 104 103 TaiCCAT 104 TaiCCAT 104 TaiCCAT 105 TaiCCAT 103 106
- 18. TAO (SCI) special issue: climate change adaptation - scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-making SCI TAO (the journal of Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) Climate Change Adaptation – Scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision- making TaiCCAT TaiCCAT
- 19. 20 - Important date: • May 01, 2015. • Oct. 31, 2015. • Mar. 31, 2016. • Sept. 01, 2016. TAO
- 20. Sept. 24, 25, 2015. @ NCU http://taiccat.wix.com/ccat2015 http://www.taiccat.net/#!events/c1ulz
- 21. Keynote speech I : Study for climate change impact analysis in water related disasters Mr. Yoichi Iwami, ICHARM, Japan Keynote speech II : Climate change and international trade Prof. Dabo Guan, University of East Anglia, UK Keynote speech II : Extreme climate in urban areas: perspectives of participatory early warning and real time monitoring for flooding Dr. Peter van der Keur, GEUS, Denmark
- 22. Presentation: The long-term sea surface temperature change in vicinity of Taiwan and its possible impact on the biology resources ( ) Presentation: The effect of urban development on urban heat island and regional precipitation pattern from ground based and satellite data ( ) Presentation: Analyzing the relationship between urban development, rainfall conditions and flood occurrence ( ) Presentation: Landslide trend under extreme climate ( ) Presentation: Impact analysis of coastal disasters under climate change ( ) Presentation: Impact on wetland biodiversity from potential sea- level rise in Tainan City ( ) Conclusion The feasibility on the environmental potential index and value-added analysis using multidisciplinary approach in Tainan city TaiCCAT Presentation: The Decision Supportive Tool for Climate Change Adaptation ( ) Presentation: - Assessment of Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategy under Climate Change Impact ( ) Presentation: Effects of Rainfall and Flooding Events on Waterborne Diseases ( ) Presentation: The cross-sectoral vulnerability assessment of food security under climate change ( ) Presentation: A Framework for Assessing Risk of Climate Change on Coastal Ecosystems in Taiwan ( ) Presentation: Assessing Water Resources Vulnerability and Resilience of Southern Taiwan in Changing Climate ( ) Conclusion
- 23. Presentation: - Engaging stakeholders to assessing and enhancing adaptation capacity- The case of Tainan County ( ) Presentation: - Articulating a legal framework for climate change adaptation -- A Taiwan's perspective ( ) Presentation: The application of land use simulation model on the climate change adaptation strategies ( ) ( ) Presentation: The establishment and application of community adaptation indices corresponding to flood and high temperature of climate change ( ) Presentation: : Unpacking the Co-production of Knowledge in Adaptation to Climate Change: The Role of Local Knowledge in a Coastal City – Tainan, Taiwan ( ) Presentation: Flood resilient cities: using geodesign to support decision-making on climate change adaptation ( ) Conclusion TaiCCAT Overview: – TaiCCAT Developing climate change adaptation technology – lessons learned from the TaiCCAT project ( ) Presentation: – The assessment of government policies on climate change adaptation in Taiwan – a pilot study of the Taiwan Climate Change Adaptation Performance Index (TCCAPI) Presentation: 2011 2015 – Research pattern of climate adaptation from 2011 to 2015 - a co-word based analysis ( ) Closing ceremony: ,
- 24. . . . :
- 25. 6.1.2.3 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D1 D2 / / D3 / D4 D5 D6 1: - 2: 3:
- 26. l Drought Frequency (events per decade) l Drought Severity (SPI per event ) l Drought Duration (months per event) Ø Trend Ø Trend Ø Trend (based on SPI) – Tainan City, 1960-2009
- 27. UHI & Fraction of total Rainfall Ø The results indicate that rainfall fraction of thunderstorm around the area of core urban is enhanced by the intense UHI effect
- 28. 1995 2012 1995 2011 Land use and land cover Urban heat island intensity (related to urbanisation) Aug. 1992 Aug. 2007 Aug. 2012 (e.g., )
- 29. dust storm biomass burning haze man-made pollution Taiwan related Other Anthropogenic Biomass Dust Mixture
- 30. 2010 2014 2010 2014 TOA BOA at the top of the atmosphere bottom of the atmosphere ATM atmosphere TOA BOA (ATM) TOA BOA ATM Dust ( )
- 31. Landsat-8 DINEOF AVHRR Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions(DINEOF) DINEOF [Ding et al. 2008]
- 32. longitude (E) latitude(N) 120 120.5 121 121.5 122 22 22.5 23 23.5 24 24.5 25 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 % Regional rainfall change rate during El Nino Spring (Feb-Apr) comparing to the normal year (-0.5<NINO3.4< 0.5) Lag- correla/on between rainfall modes and the ENSO and PDO index
- 34. 2001 2004 2007 2014 Year Overall accuracy (%) Kappa coefficien t 2001 83.9 0.86 2004 91.5 0.89 2007 82.8 0.77 2014 91.5 0.89 Landsat (Farm) (Water body) (Urban) (Forest) (Impervious surface area, ISA) 2001-2014
- 36. 100 ( TCCIP ) (Mountainous terrain) 2075-2099 mm 25,885,700m2
- 37. Positive (negative )values indicate the coastal erosion (deposition ) 1918 2012 ( ) ( )
- 38. (1980-1999) (2020-2039) 2020 2039 45% ( ) 39% overflow on the seawall (2020~2039) 10 m3/m*sec
- 39. - EPI ( )
- 40. 3
- 43. ~
- 44. AdaptSTEPS l l AdaptCloud AdaptSTEPS AdapCAB l l l AdaptCross l l l l l AdaptRankin g l AdaptScn TCCIP 5km 5km TaiWAP l AdaptWth l l AdaptCross AdaptCross AdaptCross AdaptScn AdaptWth AdaptCross AdaptRanking AdaptCloud AdaptSTEPs AdaptCross
- 45. - AdaptSTEPS - - (2012) AdaptCloud - AdaptSTEPS AdapCAB
- 46. AdaptCross - (Cross-sectoral System Dynamics Model, CSD Model) Visual Basic CSD Model AdaptCross VENSIM AdaptCross AdaptCross Water supply sub-system Daily amount of public water supply in surface water Daily amount of agricultural water supply in surface water Daily amount of public water supply in groundwater Daily amount of agricultural water supply in groundwater Domestic water demand Industrial water demand Agricultural water demand Land use Active storage capacity Domestic water quality Leakage rate River discharge Water storage facilities Diversion capacity Revenue water ratio Soil type Channel length Channel water conveyance losses Flow release Forest coverage Pumping facilities Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Daily domestic water consumption per person Non-tap water withdrawal Air temperature Economic output value Rainfall Area of the industrial zone Irrigated area Aquaculture water Crop output value Crop species Livestock water Discount water supply Water purification capacity Urban sewage recycling Industrial wastewater recycling Return flow Population Amount of alternative water resources supply Desalination CSD Model D-S-R AdaptCross AdaptCross VENSIM VENSIM AdaptCross
- 47. AdaptRanking - AdaptRanking AdaptScn - TCCIP 5km 5km TCCIP
- 49. S2 S4 S4 S5 S6 S3
- 50. • AdaptCross • • TaiWAP AdaptScn GCM RCP • AdaptRanking • ~ ~
- 53. - ( ) ( ) Bottom up – Top down - ( ) / ( ..) /
- 54. (102-106 ) -
- 55. - (urban resilience): (resilience) ( the capacity to ) (considering the current situations) - - Walker and Salt, 2006 UK Cabinet Office, 2012 (examining trends and future threats) - - - UK Cabinet Office, 2012 Bouwer et al, 2010 (learning from previous experiences) - Walker and Salt, 2006 Hutter, 2011, Hutter et al., 2011, Hutter, 2010, Bernhard, 2010, van den Brink (setting goals) - - Godschalk, 2003, Fleischhauer, 2008, van den Brink et al., 2011, Gupta et al., 2010 (initiating actions) - - - - - - Fleischhauer, 2008, Hutter, 2011, Hutter et al., 2011, Hutter, 2010, Bernhard, 2010 (involving the public) - - Godschalk, 2003, Davoudi and Strange, 2009, UK Cabinet Office, 2012, Hutter, 2011, Hutter et al., 2011, Hutter, 2010, Taipei Tainan
- 56. Taipei Climate Change Adaptation Plan, 2012 44.95% 15.67% 6.85% 14.18% 18.34% Disaster Infrastructure Water Resources Land use Energy supply and industry Agricultural production and biodiversity Health Considering the current situation Examining trends and future threats Learning from previous experiences Setting goals Initiating actions Involving the public Tainan Climate Change Adaptation Plan, 2014 11.26% 4.69% 21.79% 43.79% 18.47% Considering the current situation Examining trends and future threats Learning from previous experiences Setting goals Initiating actions Involving the public Disasters Infrastructure Water Resources Land use Energy supply and industry Agricultural production and biodiversity Health Coastal zones判斷目前狀態 評估未來趨勢 從過去的經驗中學習 制定目標 落實行動 公共參與 Findings: - - Taipei Tainan - (urban resilience):
- 57. : ( ) Return period 450 years Return period 200 years Return period 100 years Return period 50 years 0.120 (6500) 0.119 (9500) 0.120(11500) 0.151(120000) 0.133(6500) 0.133(9500) 0.127(11500) 0.185(120000) 0.138(6495) 0.137(9487) 0.129(11454) 0.153(11913) 0.253(6500) 0.253(9500) 0.269(11500) 0.347(120000) 0.275 (-) 0.263(-) 0.404(-) -(-) 1/500 ( ) 1/100 ( ) 500,000 300,000 60% 100% / $6,000 $20,000 30% 10% 3 ( ) 15 -> -> 18% 30% (36%) 10% (2%)
- 58. : 綠覆率 (RGC) 溼地面積 (AW) 山坡地開 發面積比 (RDSL) 災害潛勢 區內之開 發面積 (ADAP) 指標類型 構面數 量 因子數 量 功能 土地使用調 適能力評估 指標 3 10 土地調適指標可用以規劃因應氣候 變遷之土地使用調適策略與行動計 畫，並有助於空間的設計、評估與 分析。 區域調適能 力指標 5 19 量化行政區之調適能力，評估社會 經濟、基礎設施、制度、知識認知 與生態等構面，可針對低調適能力 區加強管理 社區調適能 力指標 5 15 評估社區因應氣候變遷的調適能力
- 59. 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 ( ) :
- 60. : : / :
- 61. 40-80 : 21
- 62. Fire bureau Mayor Deputy Mayor Councilor Water Resources Bureau Economic Development Bureau Tech. Industrial Park Agricultural Bureau District office Irrigation assoc. Water Resource Agency Council of Agriculture Ministry of Economic Six River Management Office Southern Region Water Resources Office Taiwan Water Corporation Public Construction Commission Southern Taiwan Science Park Citizen Construction sector Agriculture Industry Fishery Transportation Food Environmental groups Farmer's assoc. Experts : Central Weather Bureau Citizen Construction and Planning Agency Councilor Deputy?Mayor Directorate General of Highways District office Education Bureau Environmental Protection Bureau Executive Yuan Experts Fire bureau Fishery Industry Legislator Mayor Ministry of Economic Ministry of Education President Public Works Bureau Six River Management Office Transportation Bureau Water Resource Agency Water Resources Bureau
- 63. : 1F1F
- 64. . . : . .
- 65. 1: 2: ( ) 3:
- 67. (step4,5) ( ) ( ) 2015 ( ) 10/23 1: 1 2 3 4 5 • • • • 6
- 68. 2: (step 4,5) (step 2) : (1) (2) (3) 1 2 3 4 5 • • • • 6
- 70. :
- 72. (e.g., land use, assessment, tourism, heat islands) : SCOUPS climate adaptation (11326)
- 75. UNESCO-IHE GEUS IMPRESSIONS TaiCCAT IMPRESSIONS Tainan City Europe Dr. Harrison IMPRESSIONS ~ Climate change adaption for sustainable urban development (ClimUrban) The ClimUrban project (Climate change adaption for sustainable urban development) is a seed money project leading towards a project application to the new INTERREG Programme period 2014-2020 or other clients. Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) Project-led collaboration
- 76. -
- 78. IMPRESSIONS
- 81. , TaiCCAT