A presentation I gave at App Promotion Summit Berlin in December, 2015 recapping key trends from 2015 in the mobile app stores and providing an outlook on major shifts by Google and Apple that will change the structure of the app stores in 2016.

1. APP MARKET TRENDS & 2016
OUTLOOK
App Promotion Summit, Berlin
Patrick Kane
PRIORI DATA
Founder & CEO
@pdkane
www.prioridata.com

2. Agenda
1. Priori Data Background
2. State of the (App) Union
3. 2016 Outlook

3. 1.
PRIORI DATA
BACKGROUND

4. Me: Trying to Change the Status Quo in Mobile App Market Data
Nationality: US, now camped in an Eastern American
outpost (Berlin)
Twittering: @pdkane & @prioridata
Gamer?: Lots of hours. Lots of parent frustration. I now
sneak in 30mins a day on mobile or build cities (Skylines)
during sleepless nights
Before going “Start-up”: I analyzed and invested in
information companies, mostly in the healthcare space
Talked to: hundreds of publishers over the past 2 years,
plus, yes, just about as many VCs
4
Patrick Kane
Founder / CEO
Ex.
PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND

5. OUR MISSION
Our mission is to crowdsource the world’s largest
panel of mobile app data.
We want to deliver reliable statistics on any app,
publisher and market trend
Confidential 5
WE ANALYZE
APP STORES
Founded June 2013
International team of 22
WIR SIND
EIN BERLINER

6. PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND
Us: Powerful App Store Intelligence at a Better Value
6
Public Data
crawled from
the app stores
Proprietary
Data shared by
our
partners
Download and revenue
estimates for all apps, publishers,
and categories across 57
countries
MARKET
TRENDS
COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE
NEWCOMER
DETECTION
CUSTOMIZED
WATCHLISTS

7. Over 10,000 Apps Have Joined Our Free Data Sharing Network
7
PRIORI DATA BACKGROUND

8. 2.
STATE OF THE (APP)
UNION

9. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
Mobile Is Only Working For The Top 1%
9
Supply / Demand
Imbalance
Broken
Discovery
Market
Concentration
The Problem in 3 Steps:

10. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
Increased App Supply & Flat App Demand = More Competition
10
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Avg. Monthly Downloads Avg. # of Apps
-1%
+18
%
Indexed Supply & Demand • Consumer demand has
flatlined
• 500 new apps and 100
new publishers enter
the store every day!
• Newcomers (and their
apps) apps are as a
rule better funded and
more experienced
Based on Apple App Store. Since Sep. 2014

11. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
Top Chart Turnover (& Discovery) Offer Only Fleeting Success
11
Average Length of Stay per New App
3%
7%
41%
49%
1%
3%
71%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
>2 weeks 1-2 weeks <1 week one day
Average Free App Average Paid App
• 50% of new free apps
are in and out of the
charts within 1 day,
and 90% within 1 week.
• Only 4% of new apps
last more than 2 weeks
in the charts. That’s
350 a month, globally.
Based on Apple Top 200 Charts. „New“ designates first-time appearance in the top chart, not age of the app.

12. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
Apps Represent a “Winner Takes All” Market
12
Share of Market to Top Publishers • 100 companies
command ~70% of
store downloads and
~60% of store revenue
• There are over 450k
companies publishing
apps today, Top 100 =
0.01%
72%
59%
9%
8%
5%
5%
14%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of Total Store Downloads % of Total Store Revenue
Top 100 101-200 201-300 Everyone Else
Based on Apple App Store in June 2015. Global
Estimates.
% of Downloads % of Revenue

13. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
And Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated?
13
Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads
(Globally)
Category
Action Games
Strategy Games
Action Games
RPG Games
Sim. Games
Puzzle Games
Arcade Games
Sim. Games
Action Games
RPG Games
10 out of 10
Games
2013
0 out of 10
Games
2014
Category
Social Networking
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Finance
Photo & Video
Photo & Video
Entertainment
Lifestyle
Music

14. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
And Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated?
14
0 out of 10
Games
2014
Category
Social Networking
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Finance
Photo & Video
Photo & Video
Entertainment
Lifestyle
Music
?
2015
Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads
(Globally)

15. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
And Where is That Market Concentration, well, Concretrated?
15
2 out of 10
Games
2015
App Category
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Social Networking
Photo & Video
Social Networking
Adventure Games
Education
Health & Fitness
Strategy Games
• 50% exact overlap with
2014
• 60% are Apple, Google,
and Facebook Published
• Both gaming titles are
franchises/classics
• The two you don’t
recognize are Chinese
Top 10 Free Apps on iOS based on Monthly Downloads
(Globally)

16. STATE OF THE (APP) UNION
What Others Say
“With over 2MM apps across the various mobile app stores, discoverability is close
to impossible. User acquisition strategies are just not enough anymore, and it’s been
a while since burst campaigns were viable. When looking at all these parameters,
one question comes to mind: has the app gold rush finished?”
Michael Velkes, VP of Marketing at Plamee Games
16
Published on Mobile Dev Memo

17. 3.
2016 OUTLOOK

18. 2016 OUTLOOK
So Has the App Gold Rush Finished?
18

19. 2016 OUTLOOK
So Has the App Gold Rush Finished?
19
Doubtful.
But 2016 will change the frame of the
discussion in a major way

20. 20
Mobile Web vs. Mobile Apps
The Discussion Since 2008
2016 OUTLOOK

21. Mobile Web vs. Mobile Apps
21
^
and
The Discussion in 2016
2016 OUTLOOK

22. 2016 OUTLOOK
Fred Wilson’s Summary
22
“the mobile web is top of funnel, and
mobile apps bottom of funnel”
“The mobile web is the window of your store.
Users window shop on your mobile website.
Getting them to download and install and use your
mobile app is like getting them to come into the
store”.
http://avc.com/2015/09/mobile-web-is-top-of-funnel-mobile-app-is-bottom-of-funnel/
- Fred Wilson

23. 2016 OUTLOOK
The Optimal User Funnel For Marketers is a Mixture Of Web & App
23
“web search (discovery) + deep links (conversion) + rich
apps (engagement) + push notifications (retention)”
Patrick Kane

24. 24
So why does this notion of web
vs. apps exist in the first place?
Web and Apps are not Mutually Exclusive
2016 OUTLOOK

25. 2016 OUTLOOK
The Dominant App Stores Have Different Worldviews
25
“this apps vs. browser argument is so charged
partly because it’s a surrogate for Apple’s and
Google’s competing visions for the mobile internet”
Greg Sterling – Editor @Search Engine Land
http://marketingland.com/morgan-stanley-no-apps-arent-winning-the-mobile-browser-is-144303

26. 2016 OUTLOOK
2016 Will See Big Changes to The Store Status Quo Impacting UA
26
iOS9 and Ad Blockers Google App Streaming

27. 2016 OUTLOOK
Wrapping Up
27
• Supply/demand imbalance, broken discovery, and market
concentration pose fundamental challenges to the vast majority of
publishers
• The “gold rush” is not over, but outperformers will look for synergies
and consumer patterns that span across “web” and “apps”
• 2016 is shaping up to be a year where the major platforms take firm
stands on their view of mobile – it’s going to be a wild ride!

28. Patrick Kane
Founder /CEO
patrick@prioridata.com
Twitter @pdkane
Email me directly for a copy of
this presentation.