The cognitive biases and fallacies that trick us into believing our plans are accurate and achievable, that people are the only barriers to a plans success and that keep us tied to our plans long after they are proved to be hopelessly wrong.

1. Paul Bowler
Head of Delivery
@spbowler @RadicalCo
31st January, 2013

2. Think again!
How our decision-making processes
get us into trouble

3. The Project

4. The Plan
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5. Intention

6. The kickoff

7. Iteration 1
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8. Iteration 1
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9. Iteration 2
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10. Iteration 2
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11. Iteration 3
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12. Iteration 3
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13. Iteration 4
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14. The Steering Group

15. The NEW Plan
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16. Iteration 5
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17. Iterations 6-12
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18. What were they thinking?
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19. Hindsight bias

20. Overconfidence effect

21. Planning fallacy

22. Availability bias

23. Texas sharpshooter
fallacy

24. Selection bias

25. Confirmation Bias

26. Subjective validation
bias

27. Precision bias

28. Estimation anti-patterns
• Ask an expert
• Ask him (or her) face-to-face
• Know the answer you want in advance
• Confuse precision with accuracy
• If the answer doesn’t match your figure
then ask somebody else

29. Why was the plan
accepted?

30. Framing effect

31. Interloper effect

32. False consensus effect

33. Survivor bias

34. Optimism bias

35. Bandwagon effect

36. What happened next?

37. Outcome bias

38. Correspondence bias

39. "When I'm wrong it's through
circumstances beyond my
control.When you're wrong it's
through incompetence."

40. Cognitive dissonance

41. Optimism vs Blame (Hypothesis)
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42. Why wasn’t the project
stopped?

43. Sunk cost fallacy

44. Pseudocertainty effect

45. Optimism
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46. Information bias

47. ...and many more

48. Where do these biases
come from?

50. Extended Concentration
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Concentration

51. System1
System 2

52. Biases
Beliefs
Behaviours

53. Antidotes?

54. “Vigilance, persistence
and a healthy dose of
skepticism!”
Sheena Iyengar

55. When unsure,
think again.
When certain,
definitely think again!

56. Thank you.
linkedIn: paulbowler
twitter: @spbowler
email: paul.bowler@radicalcompany.com
web: radicalcompany.com