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Cell based Structures
for Security
- an open discussion.
simon.wardley@leadingedgeforum.com

Orient
Purpose
Landscape
Climate
Doctrine
Leadership
Observe
Decide
The “game”
why of
purpose
why of
movement
Act
Orient
Purpose
Landscape
Climate
Doctrine
Leadership
Observe
Decide
The “game”
why of
purpose
why of
movement
Act
Orient
Purpose
Landscape
Climate
Doctrine
Leadership
Observe
Decide
The “game”
why of
purpose
why of
movement
Act
Wardley Map
Anticipation
Scenario
Planning
Orient
Purpose
Landscape
Climate
Doctrine
Leadership
Observe
Decide
The “game”
why of
purpose
why of
movement
Act
Wardley Map
Organise
NMaps
NMaps
Patterns
NMaps
Patterns
Competitor
Analysis
NMaps
Patterns
Open
Discussion
Competitor
Analysis
NMaps
Patterns
Open
Discussion
Competitor
Analysis
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Application
compute
Best
architectural
practice (Legacy)
Operating
system
Best coding
practice
Good
architectural
practice
(DevOps)
emerging
architectural
practice
(???)
Low MTTRHigh MTTR
Low obscurity of
cost
SERVERLESS
CLOUD
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Application
compute
Best
architectural
practice (Legacy)
Operating
system
Best coding
practice
Good
architectural
practice
(DevOps)
emerging
architectural
practice
(???)
Low MTTRHigh MTTR
Low obscurity of
cost
SERVERLESS
CLOUD
Doctrine
Means of
Learning
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Application
compute
Best
architectural
practice (Legacy)
Operating
system
Best coding
practice
Good
architectural
practice
(DevOps)
emerging
architectural
practice
(???)
Low MTTRHigh MTTR
Low obscurity of
cost
SERVERLESS
CLOUD
Doctrine
Common
Language
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Application
compute
Best
architectural
practice (Legacy)
Operating
system
Best coding
practice
Good
architectural
practice
(DevOps)
emerging
architectural
practice
(???)
Low MTTRHigh MTTR
Low obscurity of
cost
SERVERLESS
CLOUD
Doctrine
Challenge
Assumptions
NMaps
Patterns
Open
Discussion
Competitor
Analysis
Orient
Purpose
Landscape
Climate
Doctrine
Leadership
Observe
Decide
The “game”
why of
purpose
why of
movement
Act
Wardley Map
Organise
Doctrine
universally applicable
principles regardless of
context
Flanking versus
Firing
Emergency
Services Mobile
Communication
Platfom (ESMCP)
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Emergency Function
Doctrine
Focus on
user needs
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Doctrine
Think small
(as in know the
details)
Orient
Purpose
Landscape
Climate
Doctrine
Leadership
Observe
Decide
The “game”
why of
purpose
why of
movement
Act
Wardley Map
Spend Control
(collect, collate,
challenge and
advise)
+Borders +Immigration
+Police
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
Email (7)
Data Centre (5)
Compute (10)
Power (15)
Finance (6)
Procurement (4)
Platform (10)
E-Catalogue (7)
CRM (7)
HR (7)
E-Commerce Payment (5)
Storage (8)
User Registration (6)
Website (9)
Document Management System (8)
Doctrine
Duplication
Doctrine
Bias
Number of Duplicate Efforts
in a single Organisation
Technology Space Industry
2,000+
(unconfirmed)
Accounting systems Global Defence
1,000+
(estimated)
Risk management Global Finance
380 ERP system Global Energy
300+ ECM systems Global Pharma
170 Cloud projects Global Technology
118 Workflow systems Government
22 Rules Engines European Corporate
14 CRM system National Bank
6 General Rule of Thumb Everywhere
IT Weapons of Mass Duplication - Leader Board
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Doctrine
Remove
Duplication
Complexity
Goodness
Simplicity Cycle,
Lt Col Dan Ward
Idea
+ features
Complexity
Idea
Goodness
Simplicity Cycle,
Lt Col Dan Ward
+ features
+ features
Complexity
Idea
Goodness
Simplicity Cycle,
Lt Col Dan Ward
+ features
+ features
FIST
Harvest Hawk, idea to
combat operations in
18 months
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Doctrine
Think small
(as in contracts)
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
SIX SIGMA / Outsource
StrongWeak
AGILE / In-house
Strong Weak
Strong WeakWeak
LEAN / Off the shelf product
focus on learning & reducing waste
focus on reducing deviation
focus on reducing cost of change
Climatic pattern
No one size
fits all
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Doctrine
Use appropriate
methods
build in-house with
Agile techniques
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
use off the shelf
products, Lean
build in-house with
Agile techniques
Doctrine
Use appropriate
methods
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
outsource to
utility suppliers,
Six Sigma
use off the shelf
products, Lean
build in-house with
Agile techniques
Doctrine
Use appropriate
methods
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Climatic pattern
No one size
fits all
What is a
world perception
server?
Should we
outsource or
build our own?
B
Should we
outsource or
build our own?
A
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Should we
outsource or
build our own?
Should we
outsource or
build our own?
A
B
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Autonomous
Vehicle Driver
GPS
Vehicle
State
Server
Autonomous
vehicle manager
LIDAR
World
Perception
Server
Vision System
Driver
Sunil060902, CC by SA 3.0
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Unit_395008_at_Ebbsfleet_International.JPG
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Data Centre
Power
Platform
HR
Customer
GIS
Customer
Customer
Compute
PIMS
ERPM
Finance
Web site
RISK
CRMWISE
3D Visualisation
Land Registry
BIM
Collaboration
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
3D Visualisation
Land Registry
Data Centre
Power
Platform
HR
Customer
GIS
Customer
Customer
Compute
PIMS
ERPM
Finance
BIM
Web site
RISK
CRMWISE
Collaboration
outsource to utility
suppliers, Six Sigma
use off the shelf
products, Lean
build in-house with
Agile techniques
Doctrine
Use appropriate
methods
SIX SIGMA / Outsource
StrongWeak
AGILE / In-house
Strong Weak
focus on reducing deviation
focus on reducing cost of change
Yoyo
SIX SIGMA / Outsource
StrongWeak
focus on reducing deviation
SIX SIGMA / Outsource
StrongWeak
focus on reducing deviation
Some parts
will be
efficient
SIX SIGMA / Outsource
StrongWeak
focus on reducing deviation
Some parts
will be
efficient
Incur excessive
change control
costs
Next time
we need to
specify it
better
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
outsource to
utility suppliers,
Six Sigma
use off the shelf
products, Lean
build in-house with
Agile techniques
Doctrine
Use appropriate
methods
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
outsource to
utility suppliers,
Six Sigma
use off the shelf
products, Lean
build in-house with
Agile techniques
Team 5
Team 6
Team 1
Team 3
Team 4
Team 2
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Doctrine
Think small
(use cells)
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Team 6
Team 1
Team 3
Team 4
Team 2
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Pioneers
Settlers
Town Planners
Doctrine
Think aptitude
and attitude
Team 5
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Pioneers Town PlannersSettlers
Doctrine
Design for constant
evolution
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
Town PlannersSettlersPioneers
Rare
Poorly Understood
Differential & Novel
High Future value
Constantly changing
Undefined Market
Deals with …
Happy with ...
Failure
Gambling & Gut Feel
Experimentation
Uncertainty
Methods ... Agile
Build on common components
Making the impossible / pathfinder
Most likely to build a partially
functioning 3D printer with Lego
Exploration
Growing
Increasing Education
Feature Differentiation
High Profitability
Maturing Products
Growing Market
Deals with ...
Happy with ...
Constant Improvement
Market Analysis
Feedback
Trend Spotting
Methods ... Lean
Making success happen / tactical player
Most likely to steal a half baked Lego 3D printer
and turn it into something that lots of people
want to buy
Listening
Common
Well Defined
Essential Cost of Doing Business
High Volume
Standardised & Stable
Mature Market
Deals with ...
Happy with ...
Operational Efficiency
Metric Driven
Analytics
Scientific Modelling
Methods ... Six Sigma
Empires of scale / war maker
Most likely to be running the
factory which builds Lego bricks
and Lego kits
Building what is needed
Pioneers build upon components provided by Town Planners
Speed above all else Makes success happen
Mines / Nurtures ecosystems Build ecosystems
Empires of Scale
steal from Pioneers steal from Settlers
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
Town PlannersSettlersPioneers
Rare
Poorly Understood
Differential & Novel
High Future value
Constantly changing
Undefined Market
Deals with …
Happy with ...
Failure
Gambling & Gut Feel
Experimentation
Uncertainty
Methods ... Agile
Build on common components
Making the impossible / pathfinder
Most likely to build a partially
functioning 3D printer with Lego
Exploration
Growing
Increasing Education
Feature Differentiation
High Profitability
Maturing Products
Growing Market
Deals with ...
Happy with ...
Constant Improvement
Market Analysis
Feedback
Trend Spotting
Methods ... Lean
Making success happen / tactical player
Most likely to steal a half baked Lego 3D printer
and turn it into something that lots of people
want to buy
Listening
Common
Well Defined
Essential Cost of Doing Business
High Volume
Standardised & Stable
Mature Market
Deals with ...
Happy with ...
Operational Efficiency
Metric Driven
Analytics
Scientific Modelling
Methods ... Six Sigma
Empires of scale / war maker
Most likely to be running the
factory which builds Lego bricks
and Lego kits
Building what is needed
Pioneers build upon components provided by Town Planners
Speed above all else Makes success happen
Mines / Nurtures ecosystems Build ecosystems
Empires of Scale
steal from Pioneers steal from Settlers
Doctrine
There is no
one culture
GCHQ, Boiling Frogs, 2016, Crown Copyright, https://github.com/gchq/BoilingFrogs
Category Wardley’s Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply regardless of context)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams, “two pizza”)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
Fotango website, 2005, courtesy of CEO.
CEO
CIO CFO CBO COO
IT &
Project
Mgmt.
Finance
& HR
Business
Dev,
Marketing
PR &
Sales
Ops &
Customer
Support
2002
CEO
CIO CFO CBO COO
IT &
Project
Mgmt.
Finance
& HR
Business
Dev,
Marketing
PR &
Sales
Ops &
Customer
Support
Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
Good
Neutral /
unknown
Weak
Warning
CEO
CIO CFO CBO COO
IT &
Project
Mgmt.
Finance
& HR
Business
Dev,
Marketing
PR &
Sales
Ops &
Customer
Support
Product Owner
Product Owner
2003
CEO
CIO CFO CBO COO
IT &
Project
Mgmt.
Finance
& HR
Business
Dev,
Marketing
PR &
Sales
Ops &
Customer
Support
Product Owner
Product Owner
CEO
CIO CFO CBO COO
IT &
Project
Mgmt.
Finance
& HR
Business
Dev,
Marketing
PR &
Sales
Ops &
Customer
Support
Product Owner
Product Owner
2003
Dev
Dev
Core
Core
CEO
CIO CFO CBO COO
IT &
Project
Mgmt.
Finance
& HR
Business
Dev,
Marketing
PR &
Sales
Ops &
Customer
Support
Product Owner
Product Owner
2004
Dev Core
Dev
Core
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CORE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
DEV
CORE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
DEV
CORE
You look
after this!
Where’s the
documentation?
Heretic
Burn
him!
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
DEV
Nothing was
evolving
CORE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
DEV
DEV
Nothing was
evolving
CORE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
DEV
DEV
Nothing was
evolving
Increasing
instability
CORE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
DEV
DEV
Nothing was
evolving
Increasing
instability
Open Warfare
CORE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
DEV
DEV
Missing
“middle”
CORE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Team 6
Team 1
Team 3
Team 4
Team 2
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Pioneers
Settlers
Town Planners
Team 5
CEO
Chief
Pioneer
Chief
Settler
Chief
TP
2005
CEO
Chief
Pioneer
Chief
Settler
Chief
TP
APTITUDES
CEO
Chief
Pioneer
Chief
Settler
Chief
TP
Product Owner
Product Owner
CEO
Chief
Pioneer
Chief
Settler
Chief
TP
Product Owner
Product Owner
CEO
Chief
Pioneer
Chief
Settler
Chief
TP
Product Owner
Product Owner
CEO
Chief
Pioneer
Chief
Settler
Chief
TP
Product Owner
Product Owner
2006
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Mobile Network
Ambient
User
Video
Job Dispatch
Messaging
D2D
Telephony
P2P
P2MP
Core Apps
Common Apps
Local
Apps Store
App
Catalogue
Stats
App Certification
Device
Catalogue
Secure Data Service
Device
Location Services
Device
Certification
Device
Enhancements
Bespoke Coverage
Control Room
Connections
Network
Statistics
Fault
Visualisation
MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing
Radio Site Coverage
System Support
Services
Emergency Function
CO
User
Orgs
LTE Network
Enhancement
Team 6
Team 1
Team 3
Team 4
Team 2
Team 7
Team 8
Team 9
Team 10
Pioneers
Settlers
Town Planners
Team 5
EVOLUTIONARY FLOW
Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
Good
Neutral /
unknown
Weak
Warning
NMaps
Patterns
Open
Discussion
Competitor
Analysis
Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
Good
Neutral /
unknown
Weak
Warning
E-COMMERCE GIANT
Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
Good
Neutral /
unknown
Weak
Warning
INSURANCE GIANT
Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
Good
Neutral /
unknown
Weak
Warning
LARGE GOV AGENCY
Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
Good
Neutral /
unknown
Weak
Warning
BANKING GIANT
We will just
adapt!
DOCTRINE correlated with
PERFORMANCE & ADAPTABILITY
SCENARIO …
AGAIN!
Category Wardley’s Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply regardless of context)
Communication
Be transparent
(a bias towards open)
Focus on high situational
awareness (understand what is
being considered)
Use a common language
(necessary for
collaboration)
Challenge assumptions
(speak up and question)
Development
Know your users
(e.g. customers, shareholders,
regulators, staff)
Focus on user needs
Think fast, inexpensive,
restrained and elegant
(FIRE, formerly FIST)
Remove bias and duplication
Use appropriate methods
(e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma)
Focus on the outcome not a
contract (e.g. worth based
development)
Be pragmatic
(it doesn’t matter if the
cat is black or white as
long as it catches mice)
Use standards where
appropriate
Use appropriate tools
(e.g. mapping, financial models)
Operation
Manage inertia
(e.g. existing practice, political
capital, previous investment)
Optimise flow
(remove bottlenecks)
Think small
(as in know the details)
Effectiveness over
efficiency
Do better with less
(continual improvement)
Set exceptional standards
(great is just not good enough)
Manage failure
Structure
Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy
Think small
(as in teams, “two pizza”)
Distribute power and
decision making
Think aptitude and attitude
Design for constant evolution
There is no one culture
(e.g. pioneers, settlers and
town planners)
Seek the best
Learning
Use a systematic mechanism of
learning
(a bias towards data)
A bias towards action
(learn by playing the game)
A bias towards the new
(be curious, take
appropriate risks)
Listen to your ecosystems
(acts as future sensing
engines)
Leading
Be the owner
(take responsibility)
Move fast
(an imperfect plan executed
today is better than a perfect
plan executed tomorrow)
Think big
(inspire others, provide
direction)
Strategy is iterative not
linear
(fast reactive cycles)
Strategy is complex
(there will be uncertainty)
Commit to the direction, be
adaptive along the path
(crossing the river by feeling
the stones)
There is no core
(everything is transient)
Be humble
(listen, be selfless, have
fortitude)
Exploit the landscape
FUTURE PLANNING
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
CRM
Compute
Customer
+efficiency
+Inertia
+Worth
Online Image
Manipulation
Here?
Here?
Here?
Here?
Platform
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
CRM
Compute
Customer
+efficiency
+Inertia
+Worth
Online Image
Manipulation
Platform
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
CRM
Compute
Customer
+efficiency
+Inertia
+Worth
Online Image
Manipulation
Platform
Pioneers
Settlers
Town Planners
Team A
Team B
Team C
Team D
NMaps
Patterns
Open
Discussion
Competitor
Analysis
WEAK SIGNALS
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
Platform
CRM
Compute
Customer
Online Image
Manipulation
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
Platform
CRM
Compute
Customer
+efficiency
+Inertia
+Worth
Online Image
Manipulation
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
CRM
Compute
Customer
+efficiency
+Inertia
+Worth
Online Image
Manipulation
Here?
Here?
Here?
Here?
Platform
Category Wardley’s Climatic Pattern (Rules of the game. Patterns that are applied across contexts regardless of user choice)
Components
Everything evolves through supply and
demand competition
Rates of evolution can vary by
ecosystem
(e.g. consumer vs industrial)
Characteristics change as
components evolve
(Salaman & Storey)
No choice over evolution
(Red Queen)
No single method fits all
(e.g. in development or purchasing)
Components can co-evolve
(e.g. practice with activity)
Evolution consists of
multiple waves of
diffusion with many
chasms.
Commoditisation <>
Centralisation
Financial
Higher order systems create new sources
of value
Efficiency does not mean a
reduced spend (Jevon’s Paradox)
Capital flows to new areas
of value
Creative Destruction
(Joseph Schumpeter)
Future value is inversely proportional
to the certainty we have over it.
Evolution to higher order systems
results in increasing local order
and energy consumption
Speed
Efficiency enables innovation
(Componentisation effect)
Evolution of communication
mechanisms can increase the
speed of evolution overall and
the diffusion of a single
example of change
Increased stability of
lower order systems
increases agility & speed
of re-combination
Change is not always linear
(discontinuous &
exponential change exists)
Shifts from product to utility tend to
demonstrate a punctuated equilibrium
Inertia Success breeds inertia Inertia can kill an organisation
Inertia increases the more
successful the past model
is
Competitors Competitors actions will change the game
Most competitors have poor
situational awareness
Prediction
Not everything is random
(p[what] vs p[when])
Economy has cycles
(peace, war and wonder)
Different forms of
disruption
(predictable vs non-
predictable)
A “war” (point of
industrialisation) causes
organisations to evolve
You cannot measure evolution over time
or adoption, you need to embrace
uncertainty.
The less evolved something is
then the more uncertain it
becomes
Not everything survives
Category Wardley’s Climatic Pattern (Rules of the game. Patterns that are applied across contexts regardless of user choice)
Components
Everything evolves through supply and
demand competition
Rates of evolution can vary by
ecosystem
(e.g. consumer vs industrial)
Characteristics change as
components evolve
(Salaman & Storey)
No choice over evolution
(Red Queen)
No single method fits all
(e.g. in development or purchasing)
Components can co-evolve
(e.g. practice with activity)
Evolution consists of
multiple waves of
diffusion with many
chasms.
Commoditisation <>
Centralisation
Financial
Higher order systems create new sources
of value
Efficiency does not mean a
reduced spend (Jevon’s Paradox)
Capital flows to new areas
of value
Creative Destruction
(Joseph Schumpeter)
Future value is inversely proportional
to the certainty we have over it.
Evolution to higher order systems
results in increasing local order
and energy consumption
Speed
Efficiency enables innovation
(Componentisation effect)
Evolution of communication
mechanisms can increase the
speed of evolution overall and
the diffusion of a single
example of change
Increased stability of
lower order systems
increases agility & speed
of re-combination
Change is not always linear
(discontinuous &
exponential change exists)
Shifts from product to utility tend to
demonstrate a punctuated equilibrium
Inertia Success breeds inertia Inertia can kill an organisation
Inertia increases the more
successful the past model
is
Competitors Competitors actions will change the game
Most competitors have poor
situational awareness
Prediction
Not everything is random
(p[what] vs p[when])
Economy has cycles
(peace, war and wonder)
Different forms of
disruption
(predictable vs non-
predictable)
A “war” (point of
industrialisation) causes
organisations to evolve
You cannot measure evolution over time
or adoption, you need to embrace
uncertainty.
The less evolved something is
then the more uncertain it
becomes
Not everything survives
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Climatic pattern
Punctuated
Equilibrium
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
War
Wonder Peace
Climatic pattern
Peace, War
and Wonder
The Age of Electricity
Dreams of
magic, a time
of wonder
Electricity is a powerful
constitutional tonic
American Electrotherapeutic Association, 1892
The Mechanical Age
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
War
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
Certainty
Ubiquity
Custom
Built
Commodity
Service
(rental)
Product
Service
(utility)
Genesis
Supply competition
Demandcompetition
Stage I II (key) III (key) IV
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
operation,
maintenance and
feature
differences
use
time
Frequency
increasing certainty
Stage I II (key) III (key) IV
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
operation,
maintenance and
feature
differences
use
time
Frequency
increasing certainty
Point of
stability
100%
certain
t1
Peace War
War
Points of Change 2014 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050
Now Near Far
IaaS War
PaaS War
SaaS War
Big Data War
Robotics War
Currency (blockchain) War
Sensor as a Service War
IoT War
Immersive War
3D printing War
Social Change War
GMO War
Genetic Engineering War
Intelligent Agents War
Printed Electronics War
Hybrid Printing War
Bio Manufacturing War
Epigenetics War
Materials War
Unpredictable Predictable
Weak signal analysis, 2014
NATION STATE
Self
driving car
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible A to B
Comfort
Route
Management
Status
Affordable
Car
2015
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Comfort
Route
Management
Intelligent
agents
LBS
IS
Maintenance
IoT
Affordable
OEM
Design
Simulation
Manufacturers
Assembly
Fabrication
Power supply
CPU
Car
Material
Sensors
Infotainment Entertainment
HUD
Screen
2015
A to BStatus
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Comfort
Route
Management
LBS
IS
Maintenance
IoT
Affordable
OEM
Design
Simulation
Manufacturers
Assembly
Fabrication
Power supply
CPU
Car
Material
Sensors
Infotainment
Entertainment
Immersive
2025
A to BStatus
Intelligent
agents
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Comfort
Route
Management
LBS
IS
Maintenance
IoT
Affordable
OEM
Design
Simulation
Manufacturers
Assembly
Fabrication
Power supply
CPU
Car
Material
Sensors
Infotainment
Entertainment
Immersive
2025
Digital
subscription
model
A to BStatus
Intelligent
agents
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
War
Wonder Peace
Climatic pattern
Peace, War and
Wonder
War
Points of Change 2014 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050
Now Near Far
IaaS War
PaaS War
SaaS War
Big Data War
Robotics War
Currency (blockchain) War
Sensor as a Service War
IoT War
Immersive War
3D printing War
Social Change War
GMO War
Genetic Engineering War
Intelligent Agents War
Printed Electronics War
Hybrid Printing War
Bio Manufacturing War
Epigenetics War
Materials War
Unpredictable Predictable
Weak signal analysis, 2014
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Comfort
Route
Management
LBS
IS
Maintenance
IoT
Affordable
OEM
Design
Simulation
Manufacturers
Assembly
Fabrication
Power supply
CPU
Car
Material
Sensors
Infotainment
Entertainment
Immersive
2025
Digital
subscription
model
A to BStatus
Intelligent
agents
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Comfort
Route
Management
LBS
IS
Maintenance
IoT
Affordable
OEM
Design
Simulation
Manufacturers
Assembly
Fabrication
Power supply
CPU
Car
Material
Sensors
Infotainment
Entertainment
Immersive
2025
Digital
subscription
model
A to BStatus
Intelligent
agents
Constraint
Last man standing
Directed investment
Directed investment
Directed investment
Directed investment
Factor Industry 2015 2025
Leadership
Cloud
Automotive
Train
Aero
Nuclear
Solar
Wind
Biomedical
US advantage
China advantage
Equal footing
CHEAT SHEET
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
Platform
CRM
Online Image
Manipulation
Compute
Customer
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Visual Yes
Context Yes
Position Yes
Anchor Yes
Movement NO
Components Yes
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
Platform
CRM
Online Image
Manipulation
Compute
Customer
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Novel Commodity
Evolution = Change = Movement
100%
0
Adoption rate at a given time
Total adoption at a given time
One is simply the
total of the other
A Rogers diffusion curve
A typical Moore presentation
time
Adoption(%)
100%
0
Adoption rate at a given time
Total adoption at a given time
One is simply the
total of the other
A Rogers diffusion curve
The chasm
A typical Moore presentation
The early
market
The
mainstream
market
time
Adoption(%)
100%
0
Genesis Product
Custom %
Product %
Commodity %
CommodityCustom
time
Adoption(%)
Time
ApplicableMarket
100% adoption A[5]
100% adoption A[2]
100% adoption A[1]
100% adoption A[3]
100% adoption A[4]
Time for A[5]Time for A[2]
Stage I
Publication
Type
Wonder
time
Frequency
Stage I II (key)
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
time
Frequency
Stage I II (key) III (key)
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
operation,
maintenance and
feature
differences
time
Frequency
Stage I II (key) III (key) IV
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
operation,
maintenance and
feature
differences
use
time
Frequency
Stage I II (key) III (key) IV
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
operation,
maintenance and
feature
differences
use
time
Frequency
increasing certainty
Stage I II (key) III (key) IV
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
operation,
maintenance and
feature
differences
use
time
Frequency
increasing certainty
Point of
stability
100%
certain
t1
Time
ApplicableMarket
Point of
Ubiquity
Point of
stability
100%
Ubiquitous
t1
100% adoption A[5]
100% adoption A[2]
100% adoption A[1]
100% adoption A[3]
100% adoption A[4]
0.00%
25.00%
50.00%
75.00%
100.00%
0.00% 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 100.00%
Ubiquity
Certainty
Point of
stability
Point of
Ubiquity
Trace
past
history
Certainty
Ubiquity
Custom
Built
Commodity
Service
(rental)
Product
Service
(utility)
Genesis
Supply competition
Demandcompetition
Simon Wardley, creative commons, 2007
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Custom
Built
Commodity
Service
(rental)
Product
Service
(utility)
Genesis
Supply competition
Demandcompetition
Simon Wardley, creative commons, 2007
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Print
Web Site
Platform
CRM
Online Image
Manipulation
Compute
Customer
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Needs
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
Visual Yes
Context Yes
Position Yes
Anchor Yes
Movement NO
Components Yes
Stage I II (key) III (key) IV
Publication
Type
Wonder
building, construction
and awareness
operation,
maintenance and
feature
differences
use
time
Frequency
increasing certainty
Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV
Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility)
Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled
Practice Novel Emerging Good Best
Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted
Characteristics
Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing
Widespread in the applicable market /
ecosystem
Certainty
Poorly understood / exploring the
unknown
Rapid increases in learning / discovery
becomes refining
Rapid increases in use / increasing fit
for purpose
Commonly understood
(in terms of use)
Publication Types
Describe the wonder of the thing / the
discovery of some marvel / a new land /
an unknown frontier
Focused on build / construct / awareness
and learning / many models of
explanation / no accepted forms / a wild
west.
Maintenance / operations /
installation / comparison between
competing forms / feature analysis e.g.
merits of one model over another
Focused on use / increasingly an
accepted, almost invisible component
General Properties
Market Undefined market
Forming market / competing forms and
different models of understanding
Growing market / consolidation to a few
competing but more accepted forms.
Mature market / stabilised to an
accepted form
Knowledge management Uncertain
Learning on use / focused on testing
prediction
Learning on operation / using prediction
/ verification
known / accepted
Market (Ecosystem)
Perception
Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the
“crazy”
Domain of “experts”
Increasing expectation of use / Domain
of “professionals”
Ordered (appearance of being linear) /
trivial / formula to be applied
User perception
Different / confusing / exciting /
surprising / dangerous
Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty
over results
Increasingly common / disappointed if
not used or available / feeling left
behind
Standard / expected / feeling of shock
if not used
Perception in Indusry
Future source of competitive advantage /
unpredictable / unknown
Seen as a competitive advantage / a
differential / looking for ROI and case
examples
Advantage through implementation /
features / this model is better than
that
Cost of doing business /
accepted / specific defined models
Focus of value
High future worth but immediate
investment
Seeking ways to profit and a ROI /
seeking confirmation of value
High profitability per unit / a valuable
model / a feeling of understanding /
focus on exploitation
High volume / reducing margin /
important but invisible / an essential
component of something more complex
Understanding
Poorly understood /
unpredictable
Increasing understanding / development
of measures
Increasing education / constant
refinement of needs / measures
Believed to be well defined / stable /
measurable
Comparison
Constantly changing / a differential /
unstable
Learning from others / testing the water
/ some evidential support
Competing models / feature difference /
evidential support
Essential / any advantage is operational
/ accepted norm
Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong
Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but
disappointed
Not tolerated /assumed to be in the
right direction / resistance to changing
Surprised by failure / focus on
operational efficiency
Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed
Efficiency
Reducing the cost of change
(experimentation)
Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume)
Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV
Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility)
Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled
Practice Novel Emerging Good Best
Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted
Characteristics
Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing
Widespread in the applicable market /
ecosystem
Certainty
Poorly understood / exploring the
unknown
Rapid increases in learning / discovery
becomes refining
Rapid increases in use / increasing fit
for purpose
Commonly understood
(in terms of use)
Publication Types
Describe the wonder of the thing / the
discovery of some marvel / a new land /
an unknown frontier
Focused on build / construct / awareness
and learning / many models of
explanation / no accepted forms / a wild
west.
Maintenance / operations /
installation / comparison between
competing forms / feature analysis e.g.
merits of one model over another
Focused on use / increasingly an
accepted, almost invisible component
General Properties
Market Undefined market
Forming market / competing forms and
different models of understanding
Growing market / consolidation to a few
competing but more accepted forms.
Mature market / stabilised to an
accepted form
Knowledge management Uncertain
Learning on use / focused on testing
prediction
Learning on operation / using prediction
/ verification
known / accepted
Market (Ecosystem)
Perception
Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the
“crazy”
Domain of “experts”
Increasing expectation of use / Domain
of “professionals”
Ordered (appearance of being linear) /
trivial / formula to be applied
User perception
Different / confusing / exciting /
surprising / dangerous
Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty
over results
Increasingly common / disappointed if
not used or available / feeling left
behind
Standard / expected / feeling of shock
if not used
Perception in Indusry
Future source of competitive advantage /
unpredictable / unknown
Seen as a competitive advantage / a
differential / looking for ROI and case
examples
Advantage through implementation /
features / this model is better than
that
Cost of doing business /
accepted / specific defined models
Focus of value
High future worth but immediate
investment
Seeking ways to profit and a ROI /
seeking confirmation of value
High profitability per unit / a valuable
model / a feeling of understanding /
focus on exploitation
High volume / reducing margin /
important but invisible / an essential
component of something more complex
Understanding
Poorly understood /
unpredictable
Increasing understanding / development
of measures
Increasing education / constant
refinement of needs / measures
Believed to be well defined / stable /
measurable
Comparison
Constantly changing / a differential /
unstable
Learning from others / testing the water
/ some evidential support
Competing models / feature difference /
evidential support
Essential / any advantage is operational
/ accepted norm
Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong
Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but
disappointed
Not tolerated /assumed to be in the
right direction / resistance to changing
Surprised by failure / focus on
operational efficiency
Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed
Efficiency
Reducing the cost of change
(experimentation)
Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume)
Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV
Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility)
Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled
Practice Novel Emerging Good Best
Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted
Characteristics
Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing
Widespread in the applicable market /
ecosystem
Certainty
Poorly understood / exploring the
unknown
Rapid increases in learning / discovery
becomes refining
Rapid increases in use / increasing fit
for purpose
Commonly understood
(in terms of use)
Publication Types
Describe the wonder of the thing / the
discovery of some marvel / a new land /
an unknown frontier
Focused on build / construct / awareness
and learning / many models of
explanation / no accepted forms / a wild
west.
Maintenance / operations /
installation / comparison between
competing forms / feature analysis e.g.
merits of one model over another
Focused on use / increasingly an
accepted, almost invisible component
General Properties
Market Undefined market
Forming market / competing forms and
different models of understanding
Growing market / consolidation to a few
competing but more accepted forms.
Mature market / stabilised to an
accepted form
Knowledge management Uncertain
Learning on use / focused on testing
prediction
Learning on operation / using prediction
/ verification
known / accepted
Market (Ecosystem)
Perception
Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the
“crazy”
Domain of “experts”
Increasing expectation of use / Domain
of “professionals”
Ordered (appearance of being linear) /
trivial / formula to be applied
User perception
Different / confusing / exciting /
surprising / dangerous
Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty
over results
Increasingly common / disappointed if
not used or available / feeling left
behind
Standard / expected / feeling of shock
if not used
Perception in Indusry
Future source of competitive advantage /
unpredictable / unknown
Seen as a competitive advantage / a
differential / looking for ROI and case
examples
Advantage through implementation /
features / this model is better than
that
Cost of doing business /
accepted / specific defined models
Focus of value
High future worth but immediate
investment
Seeking ways to profit and a ROI /
seeking confirmation of value
High profitability per unit / a valuable
model / a feeling of understanding /
focus on exploitation
High volume / reducing margin /
important but invisible / an essential
component of something more complex
Understanding
Poorly understood /
unpredictable
Increasing understanding / development
of measures
Increasing education / constant
refinement of needs / measures
Believed to be well defined / stable /
measurable
Comparison
Constantly changing / a differential /
unstable
Learning from others / testing the water
/ some evidential support
Competing models / feature difference /
evidential support
Essential / any advantage is operational
/ accepted norm
Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong
Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but
disappointed
Not tolerated /assumed to be in the
right direction / resistance to changing
Surprised by failure / focus on
operational efficiency
Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed
Efficiency
Reducing the cost of change
(experimentation)
Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume)
Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV
Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility)
Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled
Practice Novel Emerging Good Best
Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted
Characteristics
Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing
Widespread in the applicable market /
ecosystem
Certainty
Poorly understood / exploring the
unknown
Rapid increases in learning / discovery
becomes refining
Rapid increases in use / increasing fit
for purpose
Commonly understood
(in terms of use)
Publication Types
Describe the wonder of the thing / the
discovery of some marvel / a new land /
an unknown frontier
Focused on build / construct / awareness
and learning / many models of
explanation / no accepted forms / a wild
west.
Maintenance / operations /
installation / comparison between
competing forms / feature analysis e.g.
merits of one model over another
Focused on use / increasingly an
accepted, almost invisible component
General Properties
Market Undefined market
Forming market / competing forms and
different models of understanding
Growing market / consolidation to a few
competing but more accepted forms.
Mature market / stabilised to an
accepted form
Knowledge management Uncertain
Learning on use / focused on testing
prediction
Learning on operation / using prediction
/ verification
known / accepted
Market (Ecosystem)
Perception
Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the
“crazy”
Domain of “experts”
Increasing expectation of use / Domain
of “professionals”
Ordered (appearance of being linear) /
trivial / formula to be applied
User perception
Different / confusing / exciting /
surprising / dangerous
Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty
over results
Increasingly common / disappointed if
not used or available / feeling left
behind
Standard / expected / feeling of shock
if not used
Perception in Indusry
Future source of competitive advantage /
unpredictable / unknown
Seen as a competitive advantage / a
differential / looking for ROI and case
examples
Advantage through implementation /
features / this model is better than
that
Cost of doing business /
accepted / specific defined models
Focus of value
High future worth but immediate
investment
Seeking ways to profit and a ROI /
seeking confirmation of value
High profitability per unit / a valuable
model / a feeling of understanding /
focus on exploitation
High volume / reducing margin /
important but invisible / an essential
component of something more complex
Understanding
Poorly understood /
unpredictable
Increasing understanding / development
of measures
Increasing education / constant
refinement of needs / measures
Believed to be well defined / stable /
measurable
Comparison
Constantly changing / a differential /
unstable
Learning from others / testing the water
/ some evidential support
Competing models / feature difference /
evidential support
Essential / any advantage is operational
/ accepted norm
Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong
Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but
disappointed
Not tolerated /assumed to be in the
right direction / resistance to changing
Surprised by failure / focus on
operational efficiency
Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed
Efficiency
Reducing the cost of change
(experimentation)
Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume)
Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV
Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility)
Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled
Practice Novel Emerging Good Best
Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted
Characteristics
Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing
Widespread in the applicable market /
ecosystem
Certainty
Poorly understood / exploring the
unknown
Rapid increases in learning / discovery
becomes refining
Rapid increases in use / increasing fit
for purpose
Commonly understood
(in terms of use)
Publication Types
Describe the wonder of the thing / the
discovery of some marvel / a new land /
an unknown frontier
Focused on build / construct / awareness
and learning / many models of
explanation / no accepted forms / a wild
west.
Maintenance / operations /
installation / comparison between
competing forms / feature analysis e.g.
merits of one model over another
Focused on use / increasingly an
accepted, almost invisible component
General Properties
Market Undefined market
Forming market / competing forms and
different models of understanding
Growing market / consolidation to a few
competing but more accepted forms.
Mature market / stabilised to an
accepted form
Knowledge management Uncertain
Learning on use / focused on testing
prediction
Learning on operation / using prediction
/ verification
known / accepted
Market (Ecosystem)
Perception
Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the
“crazy”
Domain of “experts”
Increasing expectation of use / Domain
of “professionals”
Ordered (appearance of being linear) /
trivial / formula to be applied
User perception
Different / confusing / exciting /
surprising / dangerous
Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty
over results
Increasingly common / disappointed if
not used or available / feeling left
behind
Standard / expected / feeling of shock
if not used
Perception in Indusry
Future source of competitive advantage /
unpredictable / unknown
Seen as a competitive advantage / a
differential / looking for ROI and case
examples
Advantage through implementation /
features / this model is better than
that
Cost of doing business /
accepted / specific defined models
Focus of value
High future worth but immediate
investment
Seeking ways to profit and a ROI /
seeking confirmation of value
High profitability per unit / a valuable
model / a feeling of understanding /
focus on exploitation
High volume / reducing margin /
important but invisible / an essential
component of something more complex
Understanding
Poorly understood /
unpredictable
Increasing understanding / development
of measures
Increasing education / constant
refinement of needs / measures
Believed to be well defined / stable /
measurable
Comparison
Constantly changing / a differential /
unstable
Learning from others / testing the water
/ some evidential support
Competing models / feature difference /
evidential support
Essential / any advantage is operational
/ accepted norm
Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong
Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but
disappointed
Not tolerated /assumed to be in the
right direction / resistance to changing
Surprised by failure / focus on
operational efficiency
Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed
Efficiency
Reducing the cost of change
(experimentation)
Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume)
Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
FOOL’S MATE
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
Open
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
Do you think
Creative Studios
will oppose this?
Open
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
CRM
Creative
Studios
Traditional
Media (DVDs
etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
ServiceRecommendation
Engine
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
+ Constraint
Gameplay
Fool’s mate
Open
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
Entertainment
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
Entertainment
Access
Device
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
Device
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
Device
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
CDN
Gaming
Engine
Design Tools
Compute
Content
APIs
Game
Platform
Identity
Management
Data Centre
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
CDN
Gaming
Engine
Artistic
Direction
Design Tools
Compute
Content
APIs
Game
Platform
Identity
Management
Data Centre
Commissioned Old
Pipeline Creative
Studios
Game
Designers
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
CDN
Gaming
Engine
Artistic
Direction
Design Tools
Compute
Content
APIs
Game
Platform
Identity
Management
Data Centre
Commissioned Old
Pipeline Creative
Studios
Game
Designers
Lumberyard
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
CDN
Gaming
Engine
Design Tools
Compute
Content
APIs
Game
Platform
Identity
Management
Data Centre
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
+constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
+constraint
+constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
+speed
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
+speed
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
+speed
+constraint
+value
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Artistic
Direction
Creative
Studios
+speed
+value
+Capital
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Creative
Studios
+speed
Artistic
Direction
+separation
+constraint
Uncharted Industrialised
Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
ValueChain
VisibleInvisible
Gamer
2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR)
Content
Entertainment
Access
App store
Device
Gaming Platform
Commissioned Old
Pipeline
Game
Designers
Creative
Studios
+speed
Artistic
Direction
+separation
+constraint
Climatic pattern
Patterns can be
applied across
contexts
?
Doctrine
Use a common
language
LEARN MORE
medium.com/wardleymaps
creative commons
Thank you
@swardley
medium.com/wardleymaps
leadingedgeforum.com
simon.wardley@leadingedgeforum.com

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#w-cell-struc-security Wardley Maps: Cell Bases structures for Security

  • 1. Cell based Structures for Security - an open discussion. simon.wardley@leadingedgeforum.com

  • 11.
  • 12. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Application compute Best architectural practice (Legacy) Operating system Best coding practice Good architectural practice (DevOps) emerging architectural practice (???) Low MTTRHigh MTTR Low obscurity of cost SERVERLESS CLOUD
  • 13. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Application compute Best architectural practice (Legacy) Operating system Best coding practice Good architectural practice (DevOps) emerging architectural practice (???) Low MTTRHigh MTTR Low obscurity of cost SERVERLESS CLOUD Doctrine Means of Learning
  • 14. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Application compute Best architectural practice (Legacy) Operating system Best coding practice Good architectural practice (DevOps) emerging architectural practice (???) Low MTTRHigh MTTR Low obscurity of cost SERVERLESS CLOUD Doctrine Common Language
  • 15. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Application compute Best architectural practice (Legacy) Operating system Best coding practice Good architectural practice (DevOps) emerging architectural practice (???) Low MTTRHigh MTTR Low obscurity of cost SERVERLESS CLOUD Doctrine Challenge Assumptions
  • 21. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Emergency Function Doctrine Focus on user needs
  • 22. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement
  • 23. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Doctrine Think small (as in know the details)
  • 24. Orient Purpose Landscape Climate Doctrine Leadership Observe Decide The “game” why of purpose why of movement Act Wardley Map Spend Control (collect, collate, challenge and advise)
  • 26. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution Email (7) Data Centre (5) Compute (10) Power (15) Finance (6) Procurement (4) Platform (10) E-Catalogue (7) CRM (7) HR (7) E-Commerce Payment (5) Storage (8) User Registration (6) Website (9) Document Management System (8) Doctrine Duplication Doctrine Bias
  • 27. Number of Duplicate Efforts in a single Organisation Technology Space Industry 2,000+ (unconfirmed) Accounting systems Global Defence 1,000+ (estimated) Risk management Global Finance 380 ERP system Global Energy 300+ ECM systems Global Pharma 170 Cloud projects Global Technology 118 Workflow systems Government 22 Rules Engines European Corporate 14 CRM system National Bank 6 General Rule of Thumb Everywhere IT Weapons of Mass Duplication - Leader Board
  • 28. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Doctrine Remove Duplication
  • 29.
  • 31. Complexity Idea Goodness Simplicity Cycle, Lt Col Dan Ward + features + features
  • 32. Complexity Idea Goodness Simplicity Cycle, Lt Col Dan Ward + features + features FIST
  • 33. Harvest Hawk, idea to combat operations in 18 months
  • 34. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Doctrine Think small (as in contracts)
  • 35. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible SIX SIGMA / Outsource StrongWeak AGILE / In-house Strong Weak Strong WeakWeak LEAN / Off the shelf product focus on learning & reducing waste focus on reducing deviation focus on reducing cost of change Climatic pattern No one size fits all
  • 36. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Doctrine Use appropriate methods build in-house with Agile techniques
  • 37. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement use off the shelf products, Lean build in-house with Agile techniques Doctrine Use appropriate methods
  • 38. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement outsource to utility suppliers, Six Sigma use off the shelf products, Lean build in-house with Agile techniques Doctrine Use appropriate methods
  • 39. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Climatic pattern No one size fits all
  • 40. What is a world perception server?
  • 41.
  • 42. Should we outsource or build our own? B Should we outsource or build our own? A
  • 43. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Should we outsource or build our own? Should we outsource or build our own? A B
  • 44. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Autonomous Vehicle Driver GPS Vehicle State Server Autonomous vehicle manager LIDAR World Perception Server Vision System Driver
  • 45. Sunil060902, CC by SA 3.0 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Unit_395008_at_Ebbsfleet_International.JPG
  • 46.
  • 47. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Data Centre Power Platform HR Customer GIS Customer Customer Compute PIMS ERPM Finance Web site RISK CRMWISE 3D Visualisation Land Registry BIM Collaboration
  • 48. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible 3D Visualisation Land Registry Data Centre Power Platform HR Customer GIS Customer Customer Compute PIMS ERPM Finance BIM Web site RISK CRMWISE Collaboration outsource to utility suppliers, Six Sigma use off the shelf products, Lean build in-house with Agile techniques Doctrine Use appropriate methods
  • 49.
  • 50. SIX SIGMA / Outsource StrongWeak AGILE / In-house Strong Weak focus on reducing deviation focus on reducing cost of change Yoyo
  • 51. SIX SIGMA / Outsource StrongWeak focus on reducing deviation
  • 52. SIX SIGMA / Outsource StrongWeak focus on reducing deviation Some parts will be efficient
  • 53. SIX SIGMA / Outsource StrongWeak focus on reducing deviation Some parts will be efficient Incur excessive change control costs
  • 54. Next time we need to specify it better
  • 55. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement outsource to utility suppliers, Six Sigma use off the shelf products, Lean build in-house with Agile techniques Doctrine Use appropriate methods
  • 56. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement outsource to utility suppliers, Six Sigma use off the shelf products, Lean build in-house with Agile techniques Team 5 Team 6 Team 1 Team 3 Team 4 Team 2 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Doctrine Think small (use cells)
  • 57. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Team 6 Team 1 Team 3 Team 4 Team 2 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Doctrine Think aptitude and attitude Team 5
  • 58. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Pioneers Town PlannersSettlers Doctrine Design for constant evolution
  • 59. Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution Town PlannersSettlersPioneers Rare Poorly Understood Differential & Novel High Future value Constantly changing Undefined Market Deals with … Happy with ... Failure Gambling & Gut Feel Experimentation Uncertainty Methods ... Agile Build on common components Making the impossible / pathfinder Most likely to build a partially functioning 3D printer with Lego Exploration Growing Increasing Education Feature Differentiation High Profitability Maturing Products Growing Market Deals with ... Happy with ... Constant Improvement Market Analysis Feedback Trend Spotting Methods ... Lean Making success happen / tactical player Most likely to steal a half baked Lego 3D printer and turn it into something that lots of people want to buy Listening Common Well Defined Essential Cost of Doing Business High Volume Standardised & Stable Mature Market Deals with ... Happy with ... Operational Efficiency Metric Driven Analytics Scientific Modelling Methods ... Six Sigma Empires of scale / war maker Most likely to be running the factory which builds Lego bricks and Lego kits Building what is needed Pioneers build upon components provided by Town Planners Speed above all else Makes success happen Mines / Nurtures ecosystems Build ecosystems Empires of Scale steal from Pioneers steal from Settlers
  • 60. Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution Town PlannersSettlersPioneers Rare Poorly Understood Differential & Novel High Future value Constantly changing Undefined Market Deals with … Happy with ... Failure Gambling & Gut Feel Experimentation Uncertainty Methods ... Agile Build on common components Making the impossible / pathfinder Most likely to build a partially functioning 3D printer with Lego Exploration Growing Increasing Education Feature Differentiation High Profitability Maturing Products Growing Market Deals with ... Happy with ... Constant Improvement Market Analysis Feedback Trend Spotting Methods ... Lean Making success happen / tactical player Most likely to steal a half baked Lego 3D printer and turn it into something that lots of people want to buy Listening Common Well Defined Essential Cost of Doing Business High Volume Standardised & Stable Mature Market Deals with ... Happy with ... Operational Efficiency Metric Driven Analytics Scientific Modelling Methods ... Six Sigma Empires of scale / war maker Most likely to be running the factory which builds Lego bricks and Lego kits Building what is needed Pioneers build upon components provided by Town Planners Speed above all else Makes success happen Mines / Nurtures ecosystems Build ecosystems Empires of Scale steal from Pioneers steal from Settlers Doctrine There is no one culture
  • 61. GCHQ, Boiling Frogs, 2016, Crown Copyright, https://github.com/gchq/BoilingFrogs
  • 62. Category Wardley’s Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply regardless of context) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams, “two pizza”) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape
  • 63. Fotango website, 2005, courtesy of CEO.
  • 64. CEO CIO CFO CBO COO IT & Project Mgmt. Finance & HR Business Dev, Marketing PR & Sales Ops & Customer Support 2002
  • 65. CEO CIO CFO CBO COO IT & Project Mgmt. Finance & HR Business Dev, Marketing PR & Sales Ops & Customer Support
  • 66. Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape Good Neutral / unknown Weak Warning
  • 67. CEO CIO CFO CBO COO IT & Project Mgmt. Finance & HR Business Dev, Marketing PR & Sales Ops & Customer Support Product Owner Product Owner 2003
  • 68. CEO CIO CFO CBO COO IT & Project Mgmt. Finance & HR Business Dev, Marketing PR & Sales Ops & Customer Support Product Owner Product Owner
  • 69. CEO CIO CFO CBO COO IT & Project Mgmt. Finance & HR Business Dev, Marketing PR & Sales Ops & Customer Support Product Owner Product Owner 2003 Dev Dev Core Core
  • 70. CEO CIO CFO CBO COO IT & Project Mgmt. Finance & HR Business Dev, Marketing PR & Sales Ops & Customer Support Product Owner Product Owner 2004 Dev Core Dev Core
  • 71. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CORE
  • 72. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible DEV CORE
  • 73. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible DEV CORE
  • 74. You look after this! Where’s the documentation?
  • 76. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible DEV Nothing was evolving CORE
  • 77. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible DEV DEV Nothing was evolving CORE
  • 78. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible DEV DEV Nothing was evolving Increasing instability CORE
  • 79. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible DEV DEV Nothing was evolving Increasing instability Open Warfare CORE
  • 80. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible DEV DEV Missing “middle” CORE
  • 81. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Team 6 Team 1 Team 3 Team 4 Team 2 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Team 5
  • 88. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Mobile Network Ambient User Video Job Dispatch Messaging D2D Telephony P2P P2MP Core Apps Common Apps Local Apps Store App Catalogue Stats App Certification Device Catalogue Secure Data Service Device Location Services Device Certification Device Enhancements Bespoke Coverage Control Room Connections Network Statistics Fault Visualisation MDM / MAM Purchasing Billing Radio Site Coverage System Support Services Emergency Function CO User Orgs LTE Network Enhancement Team 6 Team 1 Team 3 Team 4 Team 2 Team 7 Team 8 Team 9 Team 10 Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Team 5 EVOLUTIONARY FLOW
  • 89. Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape Good Neutral / unknown Weak Warning
  • 91. Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape Good Neutral / unknown Weak Warning E-COMMERCE GIANT
  • 92. Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape Good Neutral / unknown Weak Warning INSURANCE GIANT
  • 93. Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape Good Neutral / unknown Weak Warning LARGE GOV AGENCY
  • 94. Category Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape Good Neutral / unknown Weak Warning BANKING GIANT
  • 95.
  • 96.
  • 100. Category Wardley’s Doctrine (universally useful patterns that a user can apply regardless of context) Communication Be transparent (a bias towards open) Focus on high situational awareness (understand what is being considered) Use a common language (necessary for collaboration) Challenge assumptions (speak up and question) Development Know your users (e.g. customers, shareholders, regulators, staff) Focus on user needs Think fast, inexpensive, restrained and elegant (FIRE, formerly FIST) Remove bias and duplication Use appropriate methods (e.g. agile vs lean vs six sigma) Focus on the outcome not a contract (e.g. worth based development) Be pragmatic (it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice) Use standards where appropriate Use appropriate tools (e.g. mapping, financial models) Operation Manage inertia (e.g. existing practice, political capital, previous investment) Optimise flow (remove bottlenecks) Think small (as in know the details) Effectiveness over efficiency Do better with less (continual improvement) Set exceptional standards (great is just not good enough) Manage failure Structure Provide purpose, mastery & autonomy Think small (as in teams, “two pizza”) Distribute power and decision making Think aptitude and attitude Design for constant evolution There is no one culture (e.g. pioneers, settlers and town planners) Seek the best Learning Use a systematic mechanism of learning (a bias towards data) A bias towards action (learn by playing the game) A bias towards the new (be curious, take appropriate risks) Listen to your ecosystems (acts as future sensing engines) Leading Be the owner (take responsibility) Move fast (an imperfect plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow) Think big (inspire others, provide direction) Strategy is iterative not linear (fast reactive cycles) Strategy is complex (there will be uncertainty) Commit to the direction, be adaptive along the path (crossing the river by feeling the stones) There is no core (everything is transient) Be humble (listen, be selfless, have fortitude) Exploit the landscape
  • 102. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site CRM Compute Customer +efficiency +Inertia +Worth Online Image Manipulation Here? Here? Here? Here? Platform
  • 103. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site CRM Compute Customer +efficiency +Inertia +Worth Online Image Manipulation Platform
  • 104. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site CRM Compute Customer +efficiency +Inertia +Worth Online Image Manipulation Platform Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Team A Team B Team C Team D
  • 107.
  • 108.
  • 109.
  • 110. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site Platform CRM Compute Customer Online Image Manipulation
  • 111. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site Platform CRM Compute Customer +efficiency +Inertia +Worth Online Image Manipulation
  • 112. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site CRM Compute Customer +efficiency +Inertia +Worth Online Image Manipulation Here? Here? Here? Here? Platform
  • 113. Category Wardley’s Climatic Pattern (Rules of the game. Patterns that are applied across contexts regardless of user choice) Components Everything evolves through supply and demand competition Rates of evolution can vary by ecosystem (e.g. consumer vs industrial) Characteristics change as components evolve (Salaman & Storey) No choice over evolution (Red Queen) No single method fits all (e.g. in development or purchasing) Components can co-evolve (e.g. practice with activity) Evolution consists of multiple waves of diffusion with many chasms. Commoditisation <> Centralisation Financial Higher order systems create new sources of value Efficiency does not mean a reduced spend (Jevon’s Paradox) Capital flows to new areas of value Creative Destruction (Joseph Schumpeter) Future value is inversely proportional to the certainty we have over it. Evolution to higher order systems results in increasing local order and energy consumption Speed Efficiency enables innovation (Componentisation effect) Evolution of communication mechanisms can increase the speed of evolution overall and the diffusion of a single example of change Increased stability of lower order systems increases agility & speed of re-combination Change is not always linear (discontinuous & exponential change exists) Shifts from product to utility tend to demonstrate a punctuated equilibrium Inertia Success breeds inertia Inertia can kill an organisation Inertia increases the more successful the past model is Competitors Competitors actions will change the game Most competitors have poor situational awareness Prediction Not everything is random (p[what] vs p[when]) Economy has cycles (peace, war and wonder) Different forms of disruption (predictable vs non- predictable) A “war” (point of industrialisation) causes organisations to evolve You cannot measure evolution over time or adoption, you need to embrace uncertainty. The less evolved something is then the more uncertain it becomes Not everything survives
  • 114. Category Wardley’s Climatic Pattern (Rules of the game. Patterns that are applied across contexts regardless of user choice) Components Everything evolves through supply and demand competition Rates of evolution can vary by ecosystem (e.g. consumer vs industrial) Characteristics change as components evolve (Salaman & Storey) No choice over evolution (Red Queen) No single method fits all (e.g. in development or purchasing) Components can co-evolve (e.g. practice with activity) Evolution consists of multiple waves of diffusion with many chasms. Commoditisation <> Centralisation Financial Higher order systems create new sources of value Efficiency does not mean a reduced spend (Jevon’s Paradox) Capital flows to new areas of value Creative Destruction (Joseph Schumpeter) Future value is inversely proportional to the certainty we have over it. Evolution to higher order systems results in increasing local order and energy consumption Speed Efficiency enables innovation (Componentisation effect) Evolution of communication mechanisms can increase the speed of evolution overall and the diffusion of a single example of change Increased stability of lower order systems increases agility & speed of re-combination Change is not always linear (discontinuous & exponential change exists) Shifts from product to utility tend to demonstrate a punctuated equilibrium Inertia Success breeds inertia Inertia can kill an organisation Inertia increases the more successful the past model is Competitors Competitors actions will change the game Most competitors have poor situational awareness Prediction Not everything is random (p[what] vs p[when]) Economy has cycles (peace, war and wonder) Different forms of disruption (predictable vs non- predictable) A “war” (point of industrialisation) causes organisations to evolve You cannot measure evolution over time or adoption, you need to embrace uncertainty. The less evolved something is then the more uncertain it becomes Not everything survives
  • 115. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible
  • 116. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible
  • 117. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible
  • 118. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Climatic pattern Punctuated Equilibrium
  • 119. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible War Wonder Peace Climatic pattern Peace, War and Wonder
  • 120. The Age of Electricity
  • 121.
  • 122.
  • 123.
  • 124.
  • 125.
  • 126. Dreams of magic, a time of wonder
  • 127. Electricity is a powerful constitutional tonic American Electrotherapeutic Association, 1892
  • 128.
  • 129.
  • 131. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible War Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution
  • 133. Stage I II (key) III (key) IV Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness operation, maintenance and feature differences use time Frequency increasing certainty
  • 134. Stage I II (key) III (key) IV Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness operation, maintenance and feature differences use time Frequency increasing certainty Point of stability 100% certain t1 Peace War
  • 135. War Points of Change 2014 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Now Near Far IaaS War PaaS War SaaS War Big Data War Robotics War Currency (blockchain) War Sensor as a Service War IoT War Immersive War 3D printing War Social Change War GMO War Genetic Engineering War Intelligent Agents War Printed Electronics War Hybrid Printing War Bio Manufacturing War Epigenetics War Materials War Unpredictable Predictable Weak signal analysis, 2014
  • 138. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible A to B Comfort Route Management Status Affordable Car 2015
  • 139. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Comfort Route Management Intelligent agents LBS IS Maintenance IoT Affordable OEM Design Simulation Manufacturers Assembly Fabrication Power supply CPU Car Material Sensors Infotainment Entertainment HUD Screen 2015 A to BStatus
  • 140. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Comfort Route Management LBS IS Maintenance IoT Affordable OEM Design Simulation Manufacturers Assembly Fabrication Power supply CPU Car Material Sensors Infotainment Entertainment Immersive 2025 A to BStatus Intelligent agents
  • 141. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Comfort Route Management LBS IS Maintenance IoT Affordable OEM Design Simulation Manufacturers Assembly Fabrication Power supply CPU Car Material Sensors Infotainment Entertainment Immersive 2025 Digital subscription model A to BStatus Intelligent agents
  • 142.
  • 143.
  • 144.
  • 145.
  • 146.
  • 147. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible War Wonder Peace Climatic pattern Peace, War and Wonder
  • 148. War Points of Change 2014 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Now Near Far IaaS War PaaS War SaaS War Big Data War Robotics War Currency (blockchain) War Sensor as a Service War IoT War Immersive War 3D printing War Social Change War GMO War Genetic Engineering War Intelligent Agents War Printed Electronics War Hybrid Printing War Bio Manufacturing War Epigenetics War Materials War Unpredictable Predictable Weak signal analysis, 2014
  • 149. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Comfort Route Management LBS IS Maintenance IoT Affordable OEM Design Simulation Manufacturers Assembly Fabrication Power supply CPU Car Material Sensors Infotainment Entertainment Immersive 2025 Digital subscription model A to BStatus Intelligent agents
  • 150. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Comfort Route Management LBS IS Maintenance IoT Affordable OEM Design Simulation Manufacturers Assembly Fabrication Power supply CPU Car Material Sensors Infotainment Entertainment Immersive 2025 Digital subscription model A to BStatus Intelligent agents Constraint Last man standing Directed investment Directed investment Directed investment Directed investment
  • 151. Factor Industry 2015 2025 Leadership Cloud Automotive Train Aero Nuclear Solar Wind Biomedical US advantage China advantage Equal footing
  • 153. Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site Platform CRM Online Image Manipulation Compute Customer Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs ValueChain VisibleInvisible Visual Yes Context Yes Position Yes Anchor Yes Movement NO Components Yes
  • 154. Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site Platform CRM Online Image Manipulation Compute Customer Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs ValueChain VisibleInvisible
  • 156. Evolution = Change = Movement
  • 157. 100% 0 Adoption rate at a given time Total adoption at a given time One is simply the total of the other A Rogers diffusion curve A typical Moore presentation time Adoption(%)
  • 158. 100% 0 Adoption rate at a given time Total adoption at a given time One is simply the total of the other A Rogers diffusion curve The chasm A typical Moore presentation The early market The mainstream market time Adoption(%)
  • 159. 100% 0 Genesis Product Custom % Product % Commodity % CommodityCustom time Adoption(%)
  • 160.
  • 161. Time ApplicableMarket 100% adoption A[5] 100% adoption A[2] 100% adoption A[1] 100% adoption A[3] 100% adoption A[4] Time for A[5]Time for A[2]
  • 162.
  • 163.
  • 165. Stage I II (key) Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness time Frequency
  • 166. Stage I II (key) III (key) Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness operation, maintenance and feature differences time Frequency
  • 167. Stage I II (key) III (key) IV Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness operation, maintenance and feature differences use time Frequency
  • 168. Stage I II (key) III (key) IV Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness operation, maintenance and feature differences use time Frequency increasing certainty
  • 169. Stage I II (key) III (key) IV Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness operation, maintenance and feature differences use time Frequency increasing certainty Point of stability 100% certain t1
  • 170. Time ApplicableMarket Point of Ubiquity Point of stability 100% Ubiquitous t1 100% adoption A[5] 100% adoption A[2] 100% adoption A[1] 100% adoption A[3] 100% adoption A[4]
  • 171. 0.00% 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 100.00% 0.00% 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 100.00% Ubiquity Certainty Point of stability Point of Ubiquity Trace past history
  • 184. Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site Platform CRM Online Image Manipulation Compute Customer Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Needs Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution Visual Yes Context Yes Position Yes Anchor Yes Movement NO Components Yes
  • 185. Stage I II (key) III (key) IV Publication Type Wonder building, construction and awareness operation, maintenance and feature differences use time Frequency increasing certainty
  • 186. Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility) Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled Practice Novel Emerging Good Best Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted Characteristics Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing Widespread in the applicable market / ecosystem Certainty Poorly understood / exploring the unknown Rapid increases in learning / discovery becomes refining Rapid increases in use / increasing fit for purpose Commonly understood (in terms of use) Publication Types Describe the wonder of the thing / the discovery of some marvel / a new land / an unknown frontier Focused on build / construct / awareness and learning / many models of explanation / no accepted forms / a wild west. Maintenance / operations / installation / comparison between competing forms / feature analysis e.g. merits of one model over another Focused on use / increasingly an accepted, almost invisible component General Properties Market Undefined market Forming market / competing forms and different models of understanding Growing market / consolidation to a few competing but more accepted forms. Mature market / stabilised to an accepted form Knowledge management Uncertain Learning on use / focused on testing prediction Learning on operation / using prediction / verification known / accepted Market (Ecosystem) Perception Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the “crazy” Domain of “experts” Increasing expectation of use / Domain of “professionals” Ordered (appearance of being linear) / trivial / formula to be applied User perception Different / confusing / exciting / surprising / dangerous Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty over results Increasingly common / disappointed if not used or available / feeling left behind Standard / expected / feeling of shock if not used Perception in Indusry Future source of competitive advantage / unpredictable / unknown Seen as a competitive advantage / a differential / looking for ROI and case examples Advantage through implementation / features / this model is better than that Cost of doing business / accepted / specific defined models Focus of value High future worth but immediate investment Seeking ways to profit and a ROI / seeking confirmation of value High profitability per unit / a valuable model / a feeling of understanding / focus on exploitation High volume / reducing margin / important but invisible / an essential component of something more complex Understanding Poorly understood / unpredictable Increasing understanding / development of measures Increasing education / constant refinement of needs / measures Believed to be well defined / stable / measurable Comparison Constantly changing / a differential / unstable Learning from others / testing the water / some evidential support Competing models / feature difference / evidential support Essential / any advantage is operational / accepted norm Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but disappointed Not tolerated /assumed to be in the right direction / resistance to changing Surprised by failure / focus on operational efficiency Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed Efficiency Reducing the cost of change (experimentation) Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume) Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
  • 187. Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility) Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled Practice Novel Emerging Good Best Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted Characteristics Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing Widespread in the applicable market / ecosystem Certainty Poorly understood / exploring the unknown Rapid increases in learning / discovery becomes refining Rapid increases in use / increasing fit for purpose Commonly understood (in terms of use) Publication Types Describe the wonder of the thing / the discovery of some marvel / a new land / an unknown frontier Focused on build / construct / awareness and learning / many models of explanation / no accepted forms / a wild west. Maintenance / operations / installation / comparison between competing forms / feature analysis e.g. merits of one model over another Focused on use / increasingly an accepted, almost invisible component General Properties Market Undefined market Forming market / competing forms and different models of understanding Growing market / consolidation to a few competing but more accepted forms. Mature market / stabilised to an accepted form Knowledge management Uncertain Learning on use / focused on testing prediction Learning on operation / using prediction / verification known / accepted Market (Ecosystem) Perception Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the “crazy” Domain of “experts” Increasing expectation of use / Domain of “professionals” Ordered (appearance of being linear) / trivial / formula to be applied User perception Different / confusing / exciting / surprising / dangerous Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty over results Increasingly common / disappointed if not used or available / feeling left behind Standard / expected / feeling of shock if not used Perception in Indusry Future source of competitive advantage / unpredictable / unknown Seen as a competitive advantage / a differential / looking for ROI and case examples Advantage through implementation / features / this model is better than that Cost of doing business / accepted / specific defined models Focus of value High future worth but immediate investment Seeking ways to profit and a ROI / seeking confirmation of value High profitability per unit / a valuable model / a feeling of understanding / focus on exploitation High volume / reducing margin / important but invisible / an essential component of something more complex Understanding Poorly understood / unpredictable Increasing understanding / development of measures Increasing education / constant refinement of needs / measures Believed to be well defined / stable / measurable Comparison Constantly changing / a differential / unstable Learning from others / testing the water / some evidential support Competing models / feature difference / evidential support Essential / any advantage is operational / accepted norm Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but disappointed Not tolerated /assumed to be in the right direction / resistance to changing Surprised by failure / focus on operational efficiency Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed Efficiency Reducing the cost of change (experimentation) Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume) Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
  • 188. Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility) Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled Practice Novel Emerging Good Best Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted Characteristics Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing Widespread in the applicable market / ecosystem Certainty Poorly understood / exploring the unknown Rapid increases in learning / discovery becomes refining Rapid increases in use / increasing fit for purpose Commonly understood (in terms of use) Publication Types Describe the wonder of the thing / the discovery of some marvel / a new land / an unknown frontier Focused on build / construct / awareness and learning / many models of explanation / no accepted forms / a wild west. Maintenance / operations / installation / comparison between competing forms / feature analysis e.g. merits of one model over another Focused on use / increasingly an accepted, almost invisible component General Properties Market Undefined market Forming market / competing forms and different models of understanding Growing market / consolidation to a few competing but more accepted forms. Mature market / stabilised to an accepted form Knowledge management Uncertain Learning on use / focused on testing prediction Learning on operation / using prediction / verification known / accepted Market (Ecosystem) Perception Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the “crazy” Domain of “experts” Increasing expectation of use / Domain of “professionals” Ordered (appearance of being linear) / trivial / formula to be applied User perception Different / confusing / exciting / surprising / dangerous Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty over results Increasingly common / disappointed if not used or available / feeling left behind Standard / expected / feeling of shock if not used Perception in Indusry Future source of competitive advantage / unpredictable / unknown Seen as a competitive advantage / a differential / looking for ROI and case examples Advantage through implementation / features / this model is better than that Cost of doing business / accepted / specific defined models Focus of value High future worth but immediate investment Seeking ways to profit and a ROI / seeking confirmation of value High profitability per unit / a valuable model / a feeling of understanding / focus on exploitation High volume / reducing margin / important but invisible / an essential component of something more complex Understanding Poorly understood / unpredictable Increasing understanding / development of measures Increasing education / constant refinement of needs / measures Believed to be well defined / stable / measurable Comparison Constantly changing / a differential / unstable Learning from others / testing the water / some evidential support Competing models / feature difference / evidential support Essential / any advantage is operational / accepted norm Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but disappointed Not tolerated /assumed to be in the right direction / resistance to changing Surprised by failure / focus on operational efficiency Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed Efficiency Reducing the cost of change (experimentation) Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume) Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
  • 189. Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility) Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled Practice Novel Emerging Good Best Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted Characteristics Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing Widespread in the applicable market / ecosystem Certainty Poorly understood / exploring the unknown Rapid increases in learning / discovery becomes refining Rapid increases in use / increasing fit for purpose Commonly understood (in terms of use) Publication Types Describe the wonder of the thing / the discovery of some marvel / a new land / an unknown frontier Focused on build / construct / awareness and learning / many models of explanation / no accepted forms / a wild west. Maintenance / operations / installation / comparison between competing forms / feature analysis e.g. merits of one model over another Focused on use / increasingly an accepted, almost invisible component General Properties Market Undefined market Forming market / competing forms and different models of understanding Growing market / consolidation to a few competing but more accepted forms. Mature market / stabilised to an accepted form Knowledge management Uncertain Learning on use / focused on testing prediction Learning on operation / using prediction / verification known / accepted Market (Ecosystem) Perception Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the “crazy” Domain of “experts” Increasing expectation of use / Domain of “professionals” Ordered (appearance of being linear) / trivial / formula to be applied User perception Different / confusing / exciting / surprising / dangerous Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty over results Increasingly common / disappointed if not used or available / feeling left behind Standard / expected / feeling of shock if not used Perception in Indusry Future source of competitive advantage / unpredictable / unknown Seen as a competitive advantage / a differential / looking for ROI and case examples Advantage through implementation / features / this model is better than that Cost of doing business / accepted / specific defined models Focus of value High future worth but immediate investment Seeking ways to profit and a ROI / seeking confirmation of value High profitability per unit / a valuable model / a feeling of understanding / focus on exploitation High volume / reducing margin / important but invisible / an essential component of something more complex Understanding Poorly understood / unpredictable Increasing understanding / development of measures Increasing education / constant refinement of needs / measures Believed to be well defined / stable / measurable Comparison Constantly changing / a differential / unstable Learning from others / testing the water / some evidential support Competing models / feature difference / evidential support Essential / any advantage is operational / accepted norm Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but disappointed Not tolerated /assumed to be in the right direction / resistance to changing Surprised by failure / focus on operational efficiency Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed Efficiency Reducing the cost of change (experimentation) Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume) Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
  • 190. Stage (of Evolution) I II III IV Activity Genesis Custom Product (+rental) Commodity (+utility) Data Unmodelled Divergent Convergent Modelled Practice Novel Emerging Good Best Knowledge Concept Hypothesis Theory Universally Accepted Characteristics Ubiquity Rare Slowly increasing Rapidly increasing Widespread in the applicable market / ecosystem Certainty Poorly understood / exploring the unknown Rapid increases in learning / discovery becomes refining Rapid increases in use / increasing fit for purpose Commonly understood (in terms of use) Publication Types Describe the wonder of the thing / the discovery of some marvel / a new land / an unknown frontier Focused on build / construct / awareness and learning / many models of explanation / no accepted forms / a wild west. Maintenance / operations / installation / comparison between competing forms / feature analysis e.g. merits of one model over another Focused on use / increasingly an accepted, almost invisible component General Properties Market Undefined market Forming market / competing forms and different models of understanding Growing market / consolidation to a few competing but more accepted forms. Mature market / stabilised to an accepted form Knowledge management Uncertain Learning on use / focused on testing prediction Learning on operation / using prediction / verification known / accepted Market (Ecosystem) Perception Chaotic (non linear) / Domain of the “crazy” Domain of “experts” Increasing expectation of use / Domain of “professionals” Ordered (appearance of being linear) / trivial / formula to be applied User perception Different / confusing / exciting / surprising / dangerous Leading edge / emerging / uncertainty over results Increasingly common / disappointed if not used or available / feeling left behind Standard / expected / feeling of shock if not used Perception in Indusry Future source of competitive advantage / unpredictable / unknown Seen as a competitive advantage / a differential / looking for ROI and case examples Advantage through implementation / features / this model is better than that Cost of doing business / accepted / specific defined models Focus of value High future worth but immediate investment Seeking ways to profit and a ROI / seeking confirmation of value High profitability per unit / a valuable model / a feeling of understanding / focus on exploitation High volume / reducing margin / important but invisible / an essential component of something more complex Understanding Poorly understood / unpredictable Increasing understanding / development of measures Increasing education / constant refinement of needs / measures Believed to be well defined / stable / measurable Comparison Constantly changing / a differential / unstable Learning from others / testing the water / some evidential support Competing models / feature difference / evidential support Essential / any advantage is operational / accepted norm Failure High / tolerated / assumed to be wrong Moderate / unsurprising if wrong but disappointed Not tolerated /assumed to be in the right direction / resistance to changing Surprised by failure / focus on operational efficiency Market action Gambling / driven by gut Exploring a "found" value Market analysis / listening to customers Metric driven / build what is needed Efficiency Reducing the cost of change (experimentation) Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of waste (Learning)  Reducing cost of deviation (Volume) Decision Drivers Heritage / culture Analysis & synthesis Analysis & synthesis Previous experience
  • 192.
  • 193. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline
  • 194. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline
  • 195. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint
  • 196. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint
  • 197. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint
  • 198. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint
  • 199. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint
  • 200. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint
  • 201. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint Open
  • 202. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint Do you think Creative Studios will oppose this? Open
  • 203. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible CRM Creative Studios Traditional Media (DVDs etc) Customer Leisure TimeAggregator Branded Commissioned Acquired Internet Broadcast Artistic Direction Production Talent Production Systems Market Analysis Content Web Site Streaming ServiceRecommendation Engine Web Server Compute Power Content Pipeline + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint + Constraint Gameplay Fool’s mate Open
  • 204.
  • 205. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer Entertainment
  • 206. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer Entertainment Access Device
  • 207. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access Device
  • 208. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access Device Commissioned Old Pipeline
  • 209. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device CDN Gaming Engine Design Tools Compute Content APIs Game Platform Identity Management Data Centre Commissioned Old Pipeline
  • 210. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device CDN Gaming Engine Artistic Direction Design Tools Compute Content APIs Game Platform Identity Management Data Centre Commissioned Old Pipeline Creative Studios Game Designers
  • 211. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device CDN Gaming Engine Artistic Direction Design Tools Compute Content APIs Game Platform Identity Management Data Centre Commissioned Old Pipeline Creative Studios Game Designers Lumberyard
  • 212. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device CDN Gaming Engine Design Tools Compute Content APIs Game Platform Identity Management Data Centre Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios
  • 213. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios
  • 214. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios +constraint
  • 215. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios +constraint +constraint
  • 216. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios +speed
  • 217. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios +speed
  • 218. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios +speed +constraint +value
  • 219. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Artistic Direction Creative Studios +speed +value +Capital
  • 220. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Creative Studios +speed Artistic Direction +separation +constraint
  • 221. Uncharted Industrialised Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility) Evolution ValueChain VisibleInvisible Gamer 2D Immersion3D Immersion (VR / AR) Content Entertainment Access App store Device Gaming Platform Commissioned Old Pipeline Game Designers Creative Studios +speed Artistic Direction +separation +constraint Climatic pattern Patterns can be applied across contexts
  • 222. ?
  • 223.
  • 224.
  • 225.