The Guessing Game - Alternatives to Agile Estimation

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Killick Agile Consulting Services

My talk delivered at Agile Australia 2013.

Technologie Business

Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
The Guessing Game
Alternatives to Agile Estimation

ARBITRARY PROJECT BOUNDARIES
ESTIMATES SET
EXPECTATIONS

Present a
business case
Estimate
team & other
cost ==> ROI
Put team
together
Team
estimates
Is the
estimate
too big?
Reduce scope
Project
approved
NO
YES
Ditch
project?
Business case
approved &
project prioritised
but when will it start?
Complete guess?
HOW DO WE ESTIMATE COST?

HOW DO WE KNOW WE'RE
BUILDING THE RIGHT THING?

Project lifecycle
Assumption lifecycle
PROJECTS MAKE
ASSUMPTIONS

BUDGET CREATES A REAL DEADLINE
WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $500k?
USE REAL CONSTRAINTS

BUILD & LEARN WHAT IS POSSIBLE
WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $50k?
ITERATE ON QUALITY

Present a
business case
Approved as
viable option
Team
assigned
2-4 week
experiment
Is initiative
still valuable
enough?
NO
Initiative
prioritised
YES
+ Team(s) if
required
Frequent delivery
& feedback loop
PUT THE ITERATE INTO
ITERATIONS!
Stop

MULTIPLE OPTIONS, EASY TO SWITCH
DIVERSIFY RISK (e.g. STOCK MARKET)
SMALL BETS & EXPERIMENTS

BUILD FIXED, CAPABLE TEAMS
ENABLE CONTINUOUS DELIVERY
HIRE THE "A-TEAM"

REVIEW ROI MONTHLY, NOT ANNUALLY
STOP FUNDING IF VALUE DIMINISHES
FOCUS ON VALUE

BE PROACTIVE TO BEAT COMPETITORS
DRIP FUNDING ENABLES TRUE AGILITY
RESPOND TO CHANGE

WORK ON FEATURES WHEN ASKED FOR
DELIVER AS SOON AS THEY ARE BUILT
PREDICTABLE DELIVERY

HOW DO WE AGREE
PRICE & TERMS WITH
OUR CUSTOMERS?

CHOOSE TRUST OVER PARANOIA
WELCOME & EMBRACE CHANGE
COLLABORATION

SET DELIVERY & QUALITY EXPECTATION
CUSTOMER CAN CUT CORD EARLY
FLEXIBLE OPTIONS

USE HEURISTIC, E.G. "1 ACCEPTANCE TEST"
SLICE FEATURES SIMPLE

DERIVE COST WITH THROUGHPUT
PRICE PER FEATURE

STORY POINTS LEAD TO GAMING
ESTIMATES ARE NOT PROMISES
CULTURE OF HONESTY

WE WANT TO MAKE GOOD CHOICES
WE WANT TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS
FREEDOM OF CREATIVITY

I want to shift focus
away from estimating and onto
delivering value to
stakeholders & customers...
So that I am empowered to
make the right decisions and
@neil_killick
#NoEstimates
AS A SOFTWARE PRACTITIONER
BUILD THE RIGHT THING

Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
Thank you
Questions?

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The Guessing Game - Alternatives to Agile Estimation

1. Neil Killick neilkillick.com The Guessing Game Alternatives to Agile Estimation

2. WHAT WILL I GET AND WHEN?

3. ARE WE ESTIMATING OR GUESSING?

4. ARBITRARY PROJECT BOUNDARIES ESTIMATES SET EXPECTATIONS

5. ESTIMATES ARE SELF-FULFILLING

6. A TYPICAL DYSFUNCTION USING ESTIMATES

7. Present a business case Estimate team & other cost ==> ROI Put team together Team estimates Is the estimate too big? Reduce scope Project approved NO YES Ditch project? Business case approved & project prioritised but when will it start? Complete guess? HOW DO WE ESTIMATE COST?

8. HOW DO WE PRIORITISE?

9. HOW DO WE KNOW WE'RE BUILDING THE RIGHT THING?

10. Project lifecycle Assumption lifecycle PROJECTS MAKE ASSUMPTIONS

11. BIG BETS ARE RISKY

12. WE MUST CONSIDER EMERGENT VALUE

13. MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

14. WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE?

15. BUDGET CREATES A REAL DEADLINE WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $500k? USE REAL CONSTRAINTS

16. BUILD & LEARN WHAT IS POSSIBLE WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $50k? ITERATE ON QUALITY

17. Present a business case Approved as viable option Team assigned 2-4 week experiment Is initiative still valuable enough? NO Initiative prioritised YES + Team(s) if required Frequent delivery & feedback loop PUT THE ITERATE INTO ITERATIONS! Stop

18. MULTIPLE OPTIONS, EASY TO SWITCH DIVERSIFY RISK (e.g. STOCK MARKET) SMALL BETS & EXPERIMENTS

19. BUILD FIXED, CAPABLE TEAMS ENABLE CONTINUOUS DELIVERY HIRE THE "A-TEAM"

20. REVIEW ROI MONTHLY, NOT ANNUALLY STOP FUNDING IF VALUE DIMINISHES FOCUS ON VALUE

21. BE PROACTIVE TO BEAT COMPETITORS DRIP FUNDING ENABLES TRUE AGILITY RESPOND TO CHANGE

22. WORK ON FEATURES WHEN ASKED FOR DELIVER AS SOON AS THEY ARE BUILT PREDICTABLE DELIVERY

23. HOW DO WE AGREE PRICE & TERMS WITH OUR CUSTOMERS?

24. CHOOSE TRUST OVER PARANOIA WELCOME & EMBRACE CHANGE COLLABORATION

25. ITERATIVE PRICING

26. SET DELIVERY & QUALITY EXPECTATION CUSTOMER CAN CUT CORD EARLY FLEXIBLE OPTIONS

27. FEATURE DELIVERY WITHOUT ESTIMATING

28. USE HEURISTIC, E.G. "1 ACCEPTANCE TEST" SLICE FEATURES SIMPLE

29. STORY COUNT > STORY POINTS

30. DERIVE COST WITH THROUGHPUT PRICE PER FEATURE

31. WHY IS THIS SO IMPORTANT?

32. STORY POINTS LEAD TO GAMING ESTIMATES ARE NOT PROMISES CULTURE OF HONESTY

33. WE WANT TO MAKE GOOD CHOICES WE WANT TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS FREEDOM OF CREATIVITY

34. ON TIME, ON BUDGET?

35. I want to shift focus away from estimating and onto delivering value to stakeholders & customers... So that I am empowered to make the right decisions and @neil_killick #NoEstimates AS A SOFTWARE PRACTITIONER BUILD THE RIGHT THING

36. Neil Killick neilkillick.com Thank you Questions?

The Guessing Game - Alternatives to Agile Estimation

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