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Risk Management

For Project Management
What is Risk?




• Risk (noun): possibility of loss or injury
     • (Merriam-Webster Dictionary)
Risk in Project Management

 •A risk is something that may happen
and if it does, will have an impact on the
            project objectives.

May           → possibility
Impact        → loss
Objectives    → time, cost, performance,
              quality, scope, client
              satisfaction.
Words in Risk Management

• Possibility → probability, likelihood
• Loss → impact
• Weakness → vulnerability
• Threat
• Control → countermeasure
• Residual Risk → the amount of risk that is left
  over when appropriate controls are properly
  applied to lessen or remove weakness
Risk Management Plan

•   Risk Identification
•   Risk Quantification
•   Risk Response
•   Risk Monitoring and
    Control
Risk Identification

                Or Risk Assessment
• Threats to the project
• Weaknesses of the project environment
• The possibility that threat will make use of
  weakness
• The impact of the exposure (threat to
  weakness)
• Available controls
Risk Identification and SWOT

  Factors affecting an
  organization (in this
  case, project) can usually
  be classified as:
• Internal factors
   – Strengths (S)
   – Weaknesses (W)
• External factors
   – Opportunities (O)
   – Threats (T)
Risk Identification Tools and
           Techniques
• Document Reviews
• Information Gathering
  – Brainstorming
  – Lessons Learned Database
  – Other methods, some common techniques include:
    questionnaires and surveys, interviewing, checklists,
    and examination of the Work Breakdown Structure
    for the project with appropriate specialty groups,
    asking “what-if’ questions
Risk Identification Output

• Identification # for each risk identified
• Date and phase of project development when risk was
  identified
• Name of risk (does the risk pose a threat or present an
  opportunity?)
• Detailed description of risk event
• Risk trigger
• Risk type
• Potential responses to identified risk
• Comments about risk identification
Risk Identification Sheet Example
Risk Quantification

• Set Impact Level of the Project
  – Impact Level to Cost
  – Impact Level to Schedule
• Set Probability Level of the Project (could be
  organization standard)
• Set Risk Matrix (should be organizational
  standard)
Impact Level Example

• Project Value 10M
• Project Schedule 3 Months
     Level           Value      Time
   Very High         > 5M      > 1Mo
     High           2M-5M     2W-1Mo
    Medium         0.5M-2M     3d-2W
     Low          0.1M-0.5M    1d-3d
   Very Low         <0.1M       < 1d
Probability Level Example

   Level         Probability
 Very High         >90%
   High          70%-90%
 Medium          30%-70%
   Low            5%-10%
 Very Low           <5%
Probability   Risk Matrix Example

              •VH
              •H
              •M
              •L
              •VL
                    •VL   •L   •M   •H   •VH

                          Impact
Risk Response


    Avoid: Do Something to Remove

    Transfer: Make Someone Else Responsible

    Reduce: Take Action to Lessen the Impact or
    Possibility

    Accept
Risk Response: Rule

 Cost of Risk Response (Avoid, Transfer or
Reduce) must be less than the cost of impact.
    Probability




                    Reduce               Avoid

                    Accept              Transfer

                             Severity
Risk Monitoring and Control

• Risk Audit
• Risk Reviews
• Risk Status Meetings and Reports

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Risk Management in Project Management

  • 2. What is Risk? • Risk (noun): possibility of loss or injury • (Merriam-Webster Dictionary)
  • 3. Risk in Project Management •A risk is something that may happen and if it does, will have an impact on the project objectives. May → possibility Impact → loss Objectives → time, cost, performance, quality, scope, client satisfaction.
  • 4. Words in Risk Management • Possibility → probability, likelihood • Loss → impact • Weakness → vulnerability • Threat • Control → countermeasure • Residual Risk → the amount of risk that is left over when appropriate controls are properly applied to lessen or remove weakness
  • 5. Risk Management Plan • Risk Identification • Risk Quantification • Risk Response • Risk Monitoring and Control
  • 6. Risk Identification Or Risk Assessment • Threats to the project • Weaknesses of the project environment • The possibility that threat will make use of weakness • The impact of the exposure (threat to weakness) • Available controls
  • 7. Risk Identification and SWOT Factors affecting an organization (in this case, project) can usually be classified as: • Internal factors – Strengths (S) – Weaknesses (W) • External factors – Opportunities (O) – Threats (T)
  • 8. Risk Identification Tools and Techniques • Document Reviews • Information Gathering – Brainstorming – Lessons Learned Database – Other methods, some common techniques include: questionnaires and surveys, interviewing, checklists, and examination of the Work Breakdown Structure for the project with appropriate specialty groups, asking “what-if’ questions
  • 9. Risk Identification Output • Identification # for each risk identified • Date and phase of project development when risk was identified • Name of risk (does the risk pose a threat or present an opportunity?) • Detailed description of risk event • Risk trigger • Risk type • Potential responses to identified risk • Comments about risk identification
  • 11. Risk Quantification • Set Impact Level of the Project – Impact Level to Cost – Impact Level to Schedule • Set Probability Level of the Project (could be organization standard) • Set Risk Matrix (should be organizational standard)
  • 12. Impact Level Example • Project Value 10M • Project Schedule 3 Months Level Value Time Very High > 5M > 1Mo High 2M-5M 2W-1Mo Medium 0.5M-2M 3d-2W Low 0.1M-0.5M 1d-3d Very Low <0.1M < 1d
  • 13. Probability Level Example Level Probability Very High >90% High 70%-90% Medium 30%-70% Low 5%-10% Very Low <5%
  • 14. Probability Risk Matrix Example •VH •H •M •L •VL •VL •L •M •H •VH Impact
  • 15. Risk Response  Avoid: Do Something to Remove  Transfer: Make Someone Else Responsible  Reduce: Take Action to Lessen the Impact or Possibility  Accept
  • 16. Risk Response: Rule Cost of Risk Response (Avoid, Transfer or Reduce) must be less than the cost of impact. Probability Reduce Avoid Accept Transfer Severity
  • 17. Risk Monitoring and Control • Risk Audit • Risk Reviews • Risk Status Meetings and Reports

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Try to identify as many risks as possible that may affect project objectives. Documentation Reviews Peer level reviews of project documentation, studies, reports, preliminary plans, estimates and schedules are a common and early method to help identify risks that may affect project objectives. Information Gathering • Brainstorming Formal and informal brainstorming sessions with project team members and extended project team members such as specialty groups, stakeholders and regulatory agency representatives is a technique for risk identification. • Lessons Learned Database Searching for lessons learned database that are relevant to your project can provide an abundance of information on projects that may have faced similar risks. • Other methods There are many techniques, some common techniques include: questionnaires and surveys, interviewing, checklists, and examination of the Work Breakdown Structure for the project with appropriate specialty groups, asking “what-if’ questions, for example “what-if we miss the fish window?” or “what-if our environmental documentation is challenged and we have to prepare … ?” etc.
  2. There are four things you can do about a risk. The strategies are: Avoid the risk. Do something to remove it. Use another supplier for example. Transfer the risk. Make someone else responsible. Perhaps a Vendor can be made responsible for a particularly risky part of the project. Mitigate the risk. Take actions to lessen the impact or chance of the risk occurring. If the risk relates to availability of resources, draw up an agreement and get sign-off for the resource to be available. Accept the risk. The risk might be so small the effort to do anything is not worth while. A risk response plan should include the strategy and action items to address the strategy. The actions should include what needs to be done, who is doing it, and when it should be completed.
  3. The final step is to continually monitor risks to identify any change in the status, or if they turn into an issue. It is best to hold regular risk reviews to identify actions outstanding, risk probability and impact, remove risks that have passed, and identify new risks.