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                  Rodney Harrell, PhD
                  Senior Strategic Policy Advisor
                  AARP Public Policy Institute
U.S. population is growing …
     and growing older
                                             65+ Share of
                             Total
Year   65+ Population                           Total
                           Population
                                              Population

2000    34,991,753        281,421,906            12%

2010    40,229,000        310,233,000            13%

2030    72,092,000        373,504,000            19%

2050    88,547,000        439,010,000            20%


                  Source: U.S Census Bureau - Census projections as of
                     8/2008
U.S. Census Bureau projection:
Growth in 65+ will outpace other
            cohorts
                                  U.S. Population by Age, 2010 and 2050
                           100%
                           90%             40
                                                                                                    89
Percentage of Population




                           80%
                           70%                                     65 and
                                                                   Over
                           60%
                                          186                      20-64
                           50%                                                                     238
                           40%
                                                                   Under 20
                           30%
                           20%
                           10%             84                                                      113
                            0%
                                          2010                                                    2050
                                         Table 12. Projections of the Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050 (NP2008-T12)
                                                                                                 Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
                                                                                                                   Release Date: August 14, 2008
Homelessness and
                Older Adults
•30 percent of the U.S. population is 50 years of
age and older

•In 2008, 16.8 percent of persons who sought
community services for the homeless were aged
51 or older.

• Older homeless are more likely to suffer from
health problems due to exposure to extreme
climates

    Source: The Policy Book, AARP Public Policies, 2011-2012
Homelessness and
                 Older Adults

•National data (HUD Annual Homelessness Assessment
Report) shows modest increases in older (62+) homeless
population: 2.4% in 2005 to 2.8% in 2008.

•Site specific data from various cities show greater
increases in general homeless populations which would
include older homeless.

•Older homeless population projected to increase by 33%
from 44,172 in 2010 to 58,772 in 2020 and reach over
95,000 in 2050.


     Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly
     Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
Homelessness and
            Older Adults: Causes
• Older households with annual income below the poverty line

• Aging of the chronically homeless population

• New homeless elderly adults who did not experience
homelessness prior to age 65

• Other causes:
    • history of unstable employment
    • financial problems/housing costs
    • mental/physical health problems
    • job loss
    • inadequate/discontinued public assistance
    • inadequate income

     Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly
     Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
Homelessness and
          Older Adults: Causes-
Inadequate/Discontinued Public Assistance
• Affordable housing supply declining for approximately 30 years. A
loss of 1.3 million units from 1993 to 2003.

• Public housing provides affordable housing units but programs
have ceased building new units

• Vacancy rates for Section 202 (2.6%) and LIHTC (1.6%) housing
properties serving seniors are low compared to national rate of
9.6% in 2006.

• Long waiting lists and low turnover in subsidized housing
    • Older residents don’t move as frequently as younger residents
    • Older residents may find moving difficult due to health reasons

• Section 8 vouchers: demand often exceeds supply; five- to ten-
year waiting lists
      Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly
      Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
50+ Householders with Housing
        Cost Burdens




    Low- and moderate-income households often have a
     housing cost burden, even if they own their homes

  Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
California - 50+ Householders with
       Housing Cost Burdens




   Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
New York - 50+ Householders
 with Housing Cost Burdens




 Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
Massachusetts - 50+ Householders
   with Housing Cost Burdens




   Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
State Housing Profiles:

              Housing Conditions and
             Affordability for the Older
                    Population

            Housing Statistics for each
                      state

             Coming soon!: Will be
                  available at
            www.aarp.org/statehousing
                    profiles
Homelessness and
         Older Adults: Mortgage Crisis
                   • Americans age 50 and older represent
                   approximately 28% of all delinquencies and
                   foreclosures as of 2007 (684,000 homeowners,
                   including 50,000 in foreclosures or home already
                   lost).

                   • Older African-Americans and Hispanics have higher
                   foreclosures rates than whites of any age.

•Older Americans with subprime first mortgages are nearly 17 times more
likely to be in foreclosure than Americans of the same age with prime
loans.

•For Americans over the age of 50, a loan-to-value ratio that exceeds
100% is associated with foreclosure rates that are roughly double the
national rate for consumers in this age group.

       Source: “A First Look at Older Americans and the Mortgage
       Crisis,” AARP Public Policy Institute, 2008
Livable Communities




     Photo by Jana Lynott




                            Photo by Jana Lynott
AARP Housing Policy Principles
(2011-2012)

 Improve home design.
 Promote affordable housing options.
 Strengthen federal housing programs.
 Increase capacity for public-private
  partnerships.
 Promote financial security of housing
  assets.
 Foster home and community-based
  service delivery.
Homelessness and
Older Adults: AARP Policy Solutions


•Federal Program Coordination


    •Funding and Assistance



 Source: The Policy Book, AARP Public Policies, 2011-2012
 www.aarp.org/policybook
PPI Report:
      “Preserving Affordability and Access in Livable
                         Communities
    Subsidized Housing Opportunities near Transit and the 50 +
                          Population”
                                                                                  Authors:
                                                                      Rodney Harrell, PhD
                                                                AARP Public Policy Institute

                                                                              Allison Brooks
                                                                       Reconnecting America

                                                                               Todd Nedwick
                                                                      National Housing Trust


   AARP, Reconnecting America, and the National Housing Trust developed a study, research
    paper and Solutions Forum that looked at housing, transportation, and land use.

   This study looked at the differences between housing near transit and housing far from
    transit, the location of subsidized housing in 20 cities, and how housing location mattered to
    older persons who lived in those apartments.
Overview of Research Conclusions…

   Subsidized housing near transit meets a crucial need for
    older adults.

   Currently, there is a significant supply of affordable
    housing near transit (Project-based Section 8 and Section 202)

   However, existing affordable housing near transit is
    increasingly at risk in the face of upward pressure on
    housing prices and expiring government subsidies.

   Preserving affordable housing near transit is of critical
    importance for creating livable communities for older
    Americans.
Cleveland, OH
   Long waiting lists for
    housing

   Safety and perception
    of safety were issues

   Lack of access to train
    station limits the use
    by residents

   Good bus service on
    main avenues,
    problems getting
    elsewhere
© Google 2010
2                                                  1




                                1
                            3



                © Google 2010

                                    © Google 2010




                                                                    3
2




© Google 2010                                       © Google 2010
Twin Cities, MN
   The downtown location
    in Minneapolis has
    access to light rail,
    buses, shopping

   Buses in Edina not
    “frequent” but are
    useful

   Car access not as
    important as in other
    areas due to effective,
    useful transit
Light Rail
Station




                Nicollet Mall




                                Nicollet
© Google 2010                   Towers
© Google 2010




© Google 2010                     © Google 2010




            Nicollet Mall, Minneapolis
AARP Public Policy Institute




   Informs and stimulates public debate
    on the issues we face as we age.

   Provides objective research and
    analysis

   Promotes the development of sound,
    creative policies to address our       www.aarp.org/ppi/liv-com
    common need for economic security,
    health care, and quality of life.

     For hard copies of publications, send requests to: ppi@aarp.org

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3.7 Rodney Harrell

  • 1. Title text here Rodney Harrell, PhD Senior Strategic Policy Advisor AARP Public Policy Institute
  • 2. U.S. population is growing … and growing older 65+ Share of Total Year 65+ Population Total Population Population 2000 34,991,753 281,421,906 12% 2010 40,229,000 310,233,000 13% 2030 72,092,000 373,504,000 19% 2050 88,547,000 439,010,000 20% Source: U.S Census Bureau - Census projections as of 8/2008
  • 3. U.S. Census Bureau projection: Growth in 65+ will outpace other cohorts U.S. Population by Age, 2010 and 2050 100% 90% 40 89 Percentage of Population 80% 70% 65 and Over 60% 186 20-64 50% 238 40% Under 20 30% 20% 10% 84 113 0% 2010 2050 Table 12. Projections of the Population by Age and Sex for the United States: 2010 to 2050 (NP2008-T12) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau Release Date: August 14, 2008
  • 4. Homelessness and Older Adults •30 percent of the U.S. population is 50 years of age and older •In 2008, 16.8 percent of persons who sought community services for the homeless were aged 51 or older. • Older homeless are more likely to suffer from health problems due to exposure to extreme climates Source: The Policy Book, AARP Public Policies, 2011-2012
  • 5. Homelessness and Older Adults •National data (HUD Annual Homelessness Assessment Report) shows modest increases in older (62+) homeless population: 2.4% in 2005 to 2.8% in 2008. •Site specific data from various cities show greater increases in general homeless populations which would include older homeless. •Older homeless population projected to increase by 33% from 44,172 in 2010 to 58,772 in 2020 and reach over 95,000 in 2050. Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
  • 6. Homelessness and Older Adults: Causes • Older households with annual income below the poverty line • Aging of the chronically homeless population • New homeless elderly adults who did not experience homelessness prior to age 65 • Other causes: • history of unstable employment • financial problems/housing costs • mental/physical health problems • job loss • inadequate/discontinued public assistance • inadequate income Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
  • 7. Homelessness and Older Adults: Causes- Inadequate/Discontinued Public Assistance • Affordable housing supply declining for approximately 30 years. A loss of 1.3 million units from 1993 to 2003. • Public housing provides affordable housing units but programs have ceased building new units • Vacancy rates for Section 202 (2.6%) and LIHTC (1.6%) housing properties serving seniors are low compared to national rate of 9.6% in 2006. • Long waiting lists and low turnover in subsidized housing • Older residents don’t move as frequently as younger residents • Older residents may find moving difficult due to health reasons • Section 8 vouchers: demand often exceeds supply; five- to ten- year waiting lists Source: “Demographics of Homelessness Series: The Rising Elderly Population,” National Alliance to End Homeless, April 2010
  • 8. 50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens Low- and moderate-income households often have a housing cost burden, even if they own their homes Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
  • 9. California - 50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
  • 10. New York - 50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
  • 11. Massachusetts - 50+ Householders with Housing Cost Burdens Source: State Housing Profiles 2011, AARP Public Policy Institute
  • 12. State Housing Profiles: Housing Conditions and Affordability for the Older Population Housing Statistics for each state Coming soon!: Will be available at www.aarp.org/statehousing profiles
  • 13. Homelessness and Older Adults: Mortgage Crisis • Americans age 50 and older represent approximately 28% of all delinquencies and foreclosures as of 2007 (684,000 homeowners, including 50,000 in foreclosures or home already lost). • Older African-Americans and Hispanics have higher foreclosures rates than whites of any age. •Older Americans with subprime first mortgages are nearly 17 times more likely to be in foreclosure than Americans of the same age with prime loans. •For Americans over the age of 50, a loan-to-value ratio that exceeds 100% is associated with foreclosure rates that are roughly double the national rate for consumers in this age group. Source: “A First Look at Older Americans and the Mortgage Crisis,” AARP Public Policy Institute, 2008
  • 14. Livable Communities Photo by Jana Lynott Photo by Jana Lynott
  • 15. AARP Housing Policy Principles (2011-2012)  Improve home design.  Promote affordable housing options.  Strengthen federal housing programs.  Increase capacity for public-private partnerships.  Promote financial security of housing assets.  Foster home and community-based service delivery.
  • 16. Homelessness and Older Adults: AARP Policy Solutions •Federal Program Coordination •Funding and Assistance Source: The Policy Book, AARP Public Policies, 2011-2012 www.aarp.org/policybook
  • 17. PPI Report: “Preserving Affordability and Access in Livable Communities Subsidized Housing Opportunities near Transit and the 50 + Population” Authors: Rodney Harrell, PhD AARP Public Policy Institute Allison Brooks Reconnecting America Todd Nedwick National Housing Trust  AARP, Reconnecting America, and the National Housing Trust developed a study, research paper and Solutions Forum that looked at housing, transportation, and land use.  This study looked at the differences between housing near transit and housing far from transit, the location of subsidized housing in 20 cities, and how housing location mattered to older persons who lived in those apartments.
  • 18. Overview of Research Conclusions…  Subsidized housing near transit meets a crucial need for older adults.  Currently, there is a significant supply of affordable housing near transit (Project-based Section 8 and Section 202)  However, existing affordable housing near transit is increasingly at risk in the face of upward pressure on housing prices and expiring government subsidies.  Preserving affordable housing near transit is of critical importance for creating livable communities for older Americans.
  • 19. Cleveland, OH  Long waiting lists for housing  Safety and perception of safety were issues  Lack of access to train station limits the use by residents  Good bus service on main avenues, problems getting elsewhere
  • 21. 2 1 1 3 © Google 2010 © Google 2010 3 2 © Google 2010 © Google 2010
  • 22. Twin Cities, MN  The downtown location in Minneapolis has access to light rail, buses, shopping  Buses in Edina not “frequent” but are useful  Car access not as important as in other areas due to effective, useful transit
  • 23. Light Rail Station Nicollet Mall Nicollet © Google 2010 Towers
  • 24. © Google 2010 © Google 2010 © Google 2010 Nicollet Mall, Minneapolis
  • 25. AARP Public Policy Institute  Informs and stimulates public debate on the issues we face as we age.  Provides objective research and analysis  Promotes the development of sound, creative policies to address our www.aarp.org/ppi/liv-com common need for economic security, health care, and quality of life. For hard copies of publications, send requests to: ppi@aarp.org