Mark Mulligan: Access-based business models versus ad-funded and subsidised radio
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Radio and streaming audiences are slowly converging over time, with overlap between the two increasing. While streaming growth continues, radio listening is experiencing only gradual declines. Younger audiences are more likely to use streaming services, while radio retains most older listeners. However, streaming has not replaced radio for music discovery or as a core listening experience for most consumers. The transition between the two will likely be gradual and generational as younger listeners replace older audiences.
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“Gustav Söderström, Spotify](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Mark Mulligan: Access-based business models versus ad-funded and subsidised radio
- 1. MIDiA Research Mark Mulligan October 2018 Radio and Streaming – Learning to Live Together http://midiaresearch.com
- 2. [Ad supported] allows us to reach much, much deeper into the market. “Gustav Söderström, Spotify
- 3. To me it’s creepy when I look at something and all of a sudden it’s chasing me all the way across the web. I don’t like that “ Tim Cook, Apple
- 4. 69% 64% 65% 64% 63% 73% 72% 70% 63% 65% 65% 64% 74% 73% 68% 64% 62% 63% 62% 72% 70% 68% 65% 62% 60% 61% 72% 73% 71% 73% 69% 67% 64% 75% 74% Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Weighted Average US UK Australia Canada Radio Audiences Are Experiencing Cyclical But Slow Decline %ofallconsumers Radio Audience Penetration, Q4 2016 To Q2 2018, US, UK, Canada, Australia Source: MIDiA Research Brand Tracker , US, Canada, Australia and UK n = 4,000
- 5. 34% 31% 34% 34% 32% 38% 41% 37% 33% 37% 38% 35% 41% 45% 25% 27% 25% 23% 25% 32% 33% 24% 25% 22% 22% 24% 32% 32% 27% 27% 26% 26% 25% 31% 33% Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Weighted Average US UK Australia Canada Streaming Audio is Growing, But Steadily Not Dramatically %ofallconsumers Streaming Music Audience Penetration, Q4 2016 To Q2 2018, US, UK, Canada, Australia Source: MIDiA Research Brand Tracker , US, Canada, Australia and UK n = 4,000
- 6. %ofagegroup RADIO AND STREAMING PENETRATION %ofradiolisteners The Gap Between Radio and Streaming is Narrowing, and Overlap is Increasing Too, Which Means Radio’s Unique Audience is Lessening Listen to radio Stream music 40% 37% 38% 38% 37% 40% 45% Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 % RADIO LISTENERS THAT ARE ALSO STREAMERS Streaming Music and Radio Listening Penetration and Overlap, Q4 2016 to Q2 2018, US, UK, Australia and Canada Source: MIDiA Research Brand Tracker, US, UK, Australia and Canada n = 4,000 69% 64% 65% 64% 63% 73% 72% 34% 31% 34% 34% 32% 38% 41% Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 35% 31%
- 7. 5% 9% 20% 17% 19% 30% 16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Radio Audiences Have the Scale But Are Getting Older While Streaming Audiences are Much Younger RADIO AUDIENCE AGE DISTRIBUTION STREAMING AUDIENCE AGE DISTRIBUTION 10% 16% 28% 19% 14% 14% Radio and Streaming Audience Age Distribution, Q2 2018, US, UK, Canada, Australia Source: MIDiA Research Brand Tracker, US, UK, Australia and Canada n = 4,000 72% penetration 41% penetration
- 8. Streaming Is A Major Part Of Most (But Not All) UK Radio Stations Source: MIDiA Research Brand Tracker (02/18), UK only n = 1,000 Streaming Music Overlap With Selected UK Radio Stations, Q2 2018, UK BBC RADIO 1 BBC RADIO 2 CAPITAL FM 7% 7% 16% 17% 19% 38% 44% 76% Deezer Google Play Music Amazon Prime Music Apple Music Soundcloud Spotify YouTube (For Music Videos) YouTube 4% 5% 6% 7% 12% 26% 35% 43% Mixcloud Google Play Music Soundcloud Apple Music Amazon Prime Music Spotify YouTube (For Music Videos) YouTube 5% 7% 12% 13% 15% 42% 52% 71% Amazon Music Unlimited Google Play Music Soundcloud Apple Music Amazon Prime Music Spotify YouTube (For Music Videos) YouTube 8% 10% 14% 16% 23% 35% 45% 74% Amazon Music Unlimited Amazon Prime Music Deezer Soundcloud Apple Music Spotify YouTube (For Music Videos) YouTube KISS 51% stream for free 35% stream for free 53% stream for free 47% stream for free
- 9. Streaming is Not Impacting Regular Radio Listeners’ Radio Listening More than Overall Consumers Consumers Response to Statement that they are Listening to Less Radio Because of Streaming, Q1 2018 % segment 16% 15% 33% 18% 18% 29% 27% 25% 22% 15% 17% 9% 24% 24% 7% All consumers Monthly radio listeners that stream Streamers Source: MIDiA Research Consumer Survey Q1 2018, US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, Sweden, Germany, UK, Australia, n = 7,758
- 10. YouTube is Fast Challenging Radio for Music Discovery, But Audio Streaming Still Lags far Behind Main Ways in Which Consumers Discover Music, Q1 2018 % consumers 13% 4% 5% 8% 8% 22% 26% 27% 29% 51% 52% I don't discover much new music Podcasts Other Magazines / newspapers Blogs / websites Streaming music services like Spotify Personal recommendations Via social media Hearing songs on TV shows, movies or games YouTube / Vevo Radio Source: MIDiA Research Consumer Survey Q1 2018, US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, Sweden, Germany, UK, Australia, n = 7,758 In the UK, radio still has a big lead: 51% to YouTube’s 35%, with streaming on 21%
- 11. CONCLUSIONS • Streaming is winning over younger audiences • Radio is holding onto older audiences • The high degree of audience overlap means that transitions are not binary • Streaming is not yet delivering on the core use vase for radio for most consumers • Radio has a disruption buffer to help it get its house in order • The real shift will be generational
- 12. Sign up to our free weekly research digest: http://midiaresearch.com/blog Contact: Mark Mulligan Phone: +44 (0) 780 11 66 712 Email: mark@midiaresearch.com Blog: http://musicindustryblog.wordpress.com Twitter: @mark_mulligan