1. MZUMBE UNIVERSITY
SCHOOL OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND MANAGEMENT
(SOPAM)
SUBJECT ; PRINCIPLES OF HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
CODE ; PUB 228
CORSE ; BHRM II
NATURE OF TASK; Group assignment
NAMES OF PARTICIPANTS
HAMISI ZAKARIA 13307/T.11
ZUHURA KIZUGUTO 15426/T.11
SARAPION HILDA K. 13103/T.11
TONNY MAFOLE 13315/T.11
SCHOLA E. NDONYO 13217/T.11
NITISHE EMMANUEL 15423/T.11
PETRO PAULO 13309/T11
INOCENT MLAGAMA
CLAUDIA SIMON 13191/T.11
Question
Forecasting the demand for human resource posses problem and challenges in Tanzania organizations
Discuss .

2.  TABLE OF CONTENTS
 INTRODUCTION
 DISCUSSION
 Problems faces forecasting demand human resource
 Possible solutions
 CONCLUSION
 REFERENCE

3. Human resource planning has been defined as the process by which management determine how
organization should move from its current manpower position to its desired manpower position.
Through its management strive strives to have the right number and the right kind of people at
the right place at the right time, doing things that impact both individual, organization and social
trend at large. E. W. Vetter (1967) As defined by Bulla and Scott (1994) it is ‘the process for
ensuring that the human resource requirements of an organization are identified and plans are
made for satisfying those requirements’.
Human resource planning is based on the belief that people are an organization’s most important
strategic resource. It is generally concerned with matching resources to business needs in the
longer term, although it will sometimes address shorter term requirements. It addresses human
resource needs both in quantitative and qualitative terms that is how many people and what sort
of people are needed.
As a part of corporate business planning, human resource planning said to be done in three clear
steps; Forecasting future people needs (demand forecasting). Forecasting the future availability
of people (supply forecasting). Drawing up plans to match supply to demand. Whereby at the last
step the possible measures are taken to deal with any incidents which may disturb the
equilibrium between the needed human resource and the work load.
But as Casson (1978) as couted by Armstrong (2006) pointed out, this conventional wisdom
represents human resource planning as an ‘all-embracing, policy-making activity producing, on a
rolling basis, precise forecasts using technically sophisticated and highly integrated planning
systems’. He suggests that it is better regarded as, first, a regular monitoring activity, through
which human resource stocks and flows and their relationship to business needs can be better
understood, assessed and controlled, problems highlighted and a base established from which to
respond to unforeseen events; and second, an investigatory activity by which the human resource
implications of particular problems and change situations can be explored and the effects of
alternative policies and actions investigated.
As the need of the question our discussion will base on one of three mentioned steps and that is
demand forecasting. At a more practical level, forecasting demand involves determining the

4. numbers and kinds of personnel that an organization will need at some point in the future. Most
managers consider several factors when forecasting future personnel needs. The demand for the
organization’s product or service is paramount. Thus, in a business, markets and sales figures are
projected first. Then, the personnel needed to serve the projected capacity is estimated. Other factors
typically considered when forecasting the demand for personnel include budget constraints; turnover
due to resignations, terminations, transfers, and retirement; new technology in the field; decisions to
upgrade the quality of services provided; and minority hiring goals (Noe, 2012).
Keeping in consideration all the above mentioned factors doesn’t leave forecasting human resource
demand as the party of human resource planning with no challenges and problem especial in
developing countries like Tanzania.
As a future oriented category, forecasting human resource demand in Tanzania faces a number of
challenges and problems in which the following championed others.
Uncertainties is one of the problem and far most big challenge that faces forecasting human resource
demand in Tanzania and elsewhere. As the matter of fact that human beings are blind about the
future, changes that occurs in our political, social and economical sphere, poses imbalances in our
future plans. Uncertainty about labor turn over which is the outcome of unsatisfied working
environment and competition in labor market, technological changes as the influence from globalized
world, and market fluctuation due to the week economy of Tanzania acts as a big challenge toward
proper human resource forecasting that ends up with massive redundancies and job right sizing as the
way of balancing the economy of the state.
Further more, too much rely on the past experience is another problem in forecasting human resource
demand in Tanzania as the case study. It has been a daily routine for managers and planners to rely
their future plans on the past experience. This behavior assumes that all factors which may influence
changes in their plans will remain constant during the running period so whatever is planed now will
succeed since they had previous succession through the same plan. In return, for the sensitivity field
like human resource planning it ends up with a big number of errors since human resource planning
as the multidisciplinary field of study and action depends on a huge number of factors such as
political policies, economical trend, social trend and other physical phenomena which can not remain
constant through out. So any small changes that arise in the above factors disturb the plan.

5. Lack of reliable and accurate data in the human resource field also poses another problem in
forecasting human resource demand. There is no full data development that concerning about
manpower structure in most of Tanzanian organization and whatever they are acquired they are not
taken as one of importance. Data concerning about number of employees that organization holds at
the current period and their skills, age, gender, change in work load time to time and daily routine are
much important in forecasting human resource demand in any organization and wherever it happens
that an organization doesn’t take these data into consideration as its day after day pilot, it will
directly pose the threats to the manpower planning including finding themselves overstaffing or
understaffing at the near coming future hence loss.
Also lack or poor top management support. So as human resource planning and its three mentioned
steps to succeed, it needs full top management support. Top management is responsible in assessing
the relevance of human resource data if they can shoulder the strategies of an organization, goals and
objectives of an organization. If the human resource plans meets the future demands of an
organization it will receive full supports from the top management but if it doesn’t, management
discourages its relevance and not supporting it. Most of human resource planning data especially that
based on the forecasting demand, faces lack of support from top management due to the fact that they
are irrelevant to the changing technology and economic trend since they rely on the past experience.
Organizations overambitious also can be considered as the problem and challenge that is possessed
by human resource planning in Tanzania. Management and its actors within an organization found
themselves making too huge work planning which needs a big number of employees during its
implementation. So failure to reach such targets leave a large number of employees who were
employed to perform a certain task with nothing to do in an organization. Example a manufacture
firm which have the mean production of 1000 tons of flower every year within ten years, may over
plan by aiming at producing 3000 tons for the coming future, this will need also an increase of
manpower so as to reach its target. So when it will happen that the firm fail to produce such amount
due to over planning then there will be a large number of employees who have nothing to do in an
organization.
Failure to integrate human resource planning with organizations core strategies and objectives also
proved to be a problem during forecasting human resource demand. Job objectives, organizations
strategies, mission and vision of an organization together with organizations work load, decide the

6. manpower demands in an organization. So there must be straight integration between human
resource planning and organization goals and objectives so as to decide the quality and quantity of
individuals that an organization is going to hire. This is not the case in most of Tanzanians
organization whereby human resource department works as an independent department with no
linkage with other departments such as finance, sells and planning board meetings. So due to this
situation perfection in human resource planning getting harder and harder.
Poor knowledge of managers in making organization planning also is another problem in
forecasting human resource; Human resource planning today is more likely to concentrate on
what skills will be needed in the future, and may do no more than provide a broad indication of
the numbers required in the longer term, although in some circumstances it might involve
making short term forecasts when it is possible to predict activity levels and skills requirements
with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Such predictions will often be based on broad scenarios
rather than on specific supply and demand forecasts.
Poor in making scenario planning. A scenario can be defined as ‘an imagined sequence of future
events’ (Oxford English Dictionary). Scenario planning is simply a more or less formalized
process for establishing a view about any changes that can be foreseen to the scale and type of
activities in the organization and to its structure, and for identifying any external environmental
changes that are likely to affect it. The aim is to obtain a better understanding of the possible
situations that may have to be dealt with in the future. So by having poor or not having scenario
planning, managers in human resource planning finds it hard to make future planning of an
organization and great failure in forecasting manpower demand in an organization hence loss
either through overstaffing or understaffing.
In summation, All management is about decision-making in an environment of risk and
uncertainty. Effective management aims to reduce the risk and uncertainty as far as this is
possible in an imperfect world by the acquisition of the best available information and the use of
a system. Improved HR information systems mean there is no reason why data that drives
decisions on human resource planning should not be made now, as we argued in our discussion.

7. Accurate data and conceptual skill is the best solution for the problem in forecasting human
resource demand.

8. Reference;
Gupta, C. B,( 2009 ) 13th ed Management theory and practice, Sultan Chand & sons, New Delhi
Milkovich B, (2004) 5th ed Human resource management, business publication inc, New Delhi
Michael armstrong, (2006) 10th ed A hand book of human resource management practice, Kogan
page limited. London