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Introduction to Technical Analysis
- 1. Introduction to Technical Analysis Karel De Bie Market Strategist BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets FI Research. Blanmont, May 18, 2011
- 3. TA vs FA Michigan Confidence Indicator New Home Sales Durable Goods Orders Jobless Claims ISM Manufacturng Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemplyment Rate Trade Balance CPI P(fa) P(fa)>P=> buy P(fa)<P=> sell … FA A fundamental analyst only analyzes a handful of stocks or currencies Geopolitical Situation TA Basics
- 6. Loss of information : per period just the close (no OHL), the H&L are important when drawing resistance/support lines The chart: line chart
- 7. The chart: bar chart Bar = 1 period, 1 min to 1 year
- 8. The chart: candle stick chart Candle = 1 period, 1 min to 1 year Advantage: Jap candlestick clearly visible
- 15. Higher bottom Higher top
- 16. EUR/USD
- 17. Bund
- 20. Trend, reversal & continuation patterns Reversal pattern Reversal pattern Continuation pattern
- 22. Basic Formations: Trend Line Simplest tool within TA Connects the lows in an uptrend Below every 2 bottoms, it is possible to fine such a line, but it needs 3 points to be a valid one = support line
- 24. Uptrend Support Line 3 & 4: buying opportunities 5: selling opportunity pull-back possible: previous support line becomes resistance
- 26. AEX 1 december 2010: long or short?
- 27. AEX : another buy signal
- 28. AEX : and now?
- 30. 20.90 13.70 24.25 28.50 25.50
- 33. EUR/USD, weekly bars chart buy sell
- 36. (analogous for downtrend channel) Basic Formations: Channel Target Target Break-out Break-out Uptrend channel, break-out and target
- 37. Bund 125.40 124.00 122.05 fibo target
- 40. Channel
- 41. 71.50 67.00 63.00 58.00
- 42. Reversal Formation: Head & Shoulders
- 45. S&P 500, daily bars
- 48. Reversal Formation: Double & Triple Top Similar for a double (or triple) bottom No previous top in the double top space
- 49. Brent Oil
- 51. Dollar index
- 55. (Key) Reversal day & Island reversal
- 57. S&P 500 daily bars bearish key reversal bullish key reversal bullish key reversal
- 58. EUR/USD, daily candlesticks Bullish key reversal day Bearish reversal day
- 59. Gold, weekly bars Bullish reversal weeks Bearish reversal week
- 61. 1.4144 1.4225 1.4122 25 tics risk for 80 tics potential profit
- 62. Example
- 63. EUR/USD, 30min bars, Oct 5th 2010 long stop loss target 20 tics ris vs 100 tics potential profit
- 66. EUR/USD
- 68. Triangle: Reversal or Continuation Pattern
- 72. Driehoek
- 75. Bund voorbeelden
- 76. Bund voorbeelden
- 78. The Candlestick
- 79. Hammer & Hanging Man
- 84. EUR/USD, 60 min bars
- 91. Long if closing price is above MA (a 25 period simple MA), short if closing price is below MA. Bel20, weekly bars Example of using the MA
- 92. Long if closing price is above MA (a 25 period simple MA), short if closing price is below MA. Bel20, daily bars Example of using the MA
- 94. 100 days MA MA: great results when the market is in a clear up- or downtrend Sideways trading: you lose money when trading the MA signals
- 95. 100 days MA 50 days MA 20 days MA Which MA to use? Afterwards, it is always clear…
- 97. 12 periods 26 periods the “0” level MACD: comparing 2 moving averages MACD = Exp MA of 12 periods – Exp MA of 26 periods MACD: the white line Crossing below zero: sell signal Crossing above zero: buy signal
- 101. Bel20, monthly bars
- 104. Positive divergence: a rise is very probable Positive divergence: announces a rise
- 105. Positive divergence: a rise is very probable Positive divergence: announces a rise
- 107. Negative divergence: a decline is very probable Negative divergence: announces a decline
- 108. Negative divergence: a decline is very probable Negative divergence: announces a decline
- 111. Daily MACD WEEKLY MACD EUR/USD, daily bars
- 112. Bel20, monthly bars
- 115. Divergence positive: hausse très probable Divergence positive: annonce une hausse
- 116. Divergence positive: hausse très probable Divergence positive: annonce une hausse
- 117. Divergence negative: baisse très probable Divergence negative: annonce une baisse
- 118. Divergence negative: baisse très probable Divergence negative: annonce une baisse
- 121. 1170-1250 Fibonacci
- 122. Fibonacci
- 124. Fibonacci: 1 + 0.618 => golden spiral
- 127. Fibonacci in the finacial markets
- 128. Fibonacci retracements are calculated relative to a previous move. Fibonacci retracements
- 130. S&P 500
- 131. BEL 20
- 132. Fibonacci extensions A A*1.618 B B*1.618 C C*1.618
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &quot;Preneed&quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis' intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
- Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &quot;Preneed&quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis' intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
- Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &quot;Preneed&quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis' intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
- Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &quot;Preneed&quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis' intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
- Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &quot;Preneed&quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis' intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.