The document discusses the linkages between climate change, food security, and population in Ethiopia. It presents results from a modeling analysis on how climate change is expected to decrease agricultural outputs and challenge food security for Ethiopians. Specifically, it finds that rising temperatures and erratic rainfall from climate change will decrease crop yields and food availability. This will exacerbate food insecurity issues, as many Ethiopians already face challenges meeting their nutritional needs. However, lowering population growth through increased family planning can help offset the negative impacts of climate change on food security by reducing food demand. The analysis estimates that with low population growth, food shortages from climate change can be almost entirely mitigated by 2050.

1. Welcome to [event name…].
Today we are pleased to share with you the results of a recent analysis of the linkages
between climate change, food security, and population in Ethiopia. It draws on a wide
range of Ethiopian and international data, including a modeling framework developed by
the Futures Group, with support from the Measure Evaluation Project and the Packard
Foundation.
Many Ethiopians today remain vulnerable to shocks to the food system, putting them on
the edge of food security. Today we will explore how climate change is expected to affect
the agricultural system and the ability of Ethiopians to achieve food security. While many
adaptation strategies address agricultural systems, we will also look at the other side of
food security: population.
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2. There are three areas we will look at:
Climate change will decrease agricultural outputs in the future, thus challenging food
security.
Food security is already a concern today for the people of Ethiopia, especially the poor.
Family planning is one of many adaptation strategies Ethiopia may choose.
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3. During this presentation we will hear voices from many Ethiopian farmers.
And they have already begun to notice the effects of climate change in their lives.
3

4. What do we mean by “food security”?
There are several definitions but we define it as a situation when the supply and demand
for food are in balance; that is, when there is sufficient food for a given population.
The supply of food is what Ethiopia produces locally plus food imports.
The demand for food is household consumption, for both people and their livestock.
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5. There are many factors that can lead to food insecurity. One is climate change, because it
can threaten food production.
In a minute we will see how changes in temperature and rainfall can affect agricultural
production.
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6. Farmers can adapt to the threats of climate change in several ways by techniques that
increase the supply. Examples of production factors are:
• Seed varieties;
• Fertilizers;
• Technology;
• Area under cultivation; and
• Water management
These strategies will be crucial in increasing Ethiopia’s supply of food to satisfy the needs of
its growing population, especially in the face of climate change.
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7. Another set of adaptation strategies focuses on decreasing or managing the overall
demand for food. Examples of demand-side factors are:
• Population;
• Poverty; and
• Inequality
Today’s presentation will focus on the role of managing population growth as one
adaptation strategy to improve food security in the face of climate change.
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8. First let’s review where Ethiopia is today in several relevant areas.
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9. Climate change has two main dimensions: rising temperatures and erratic rainfall.
We have all heard about global warming and Ethiopia has not been immune. Here we see
that average temperatures in Ethiopia have increased in the recent past. Average
temperatures have increased 1.3 degree Celsius from 1960 to 2006.
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10. Climate change scientists’ forecasts predict this trend of increasing temperatures will
continue.
Here we see the forecasts of three scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change; all three show continued rising temperatures. Forecasts estimate an additional
increase of between 1.5 and 5.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
10

11. Another aspect of climate change is variation in rainfall patterns. Too little or too much
water can be challenging to farmers.
A recent survey found that most farmers have experienced drought and over 20% have
faced flooding at some point during the year. As we can see, both of these shocks have
increased from 2008 to 2010.
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12. Another aspect of climate change is variation in rainfall patterns. Too little or too much
water can be challenging to farmers.
A recent survey found that most farmers have experienced drought and over 40% have
faced flooding at some point during the year. As we can see, both of these shocks have
increased from 2008 to 2010.
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13. As farmers around the country note, these changes affect their crops.
A farmer notes that “Productivity is declining. Enset and coffee do not produce the same as
before.”
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14. Agricultural and climate change research are consistent with the observations of farmers.
Temperature increases and erratic rainfall due to climate change are decreasing the
productivity of crops around the world. As climate change continues we expect this to
worsen. Here we see that maize yields are expected to decrease by about 22% in East
Africa. Yields for other crops, and in other parts of the world, are also decreasing.
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15. Family farms in Ethiopia face many challenges that add to the threat of lower yields. These
include:
Insufficient use of fertilizers, irrigation, improved seed varieties, and technology
Decreasing plot size with each generation
No space for livestock and open grazing
Remote areas’ lack of access to markets leads to selling at low prices
Wastage in production and transport
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16. “The rain doesn’t come at the usual, expected time and the temperature is increasing.
There are many problems because of climate change, and the indigenous way of farming
can’t support my family anymore.”
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17. The US Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) monitors the food situation in Africa on a
continuous basis. In their latest assessment much of Ethiopia today is facing a precarious
food security situation. The map shows that large parts of the country are considered in a
state of emergency, crisis, or stressed.
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18. Food security is not only a matter of crop yields and production; it is also intimately linked
with poverty.
In Ethiopia poverty has decreased from 35% to 29%, yet 23 million Ethiopians remain in
poverty.
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19. A recent survey shows the extent of food insecurity in rural Ethiopia.
19

20. The poor face more food security challenges than do the rich. Here we can see that the
poorest households – on the left side of the graph – spend 5 months per year without
enough food, while the wealthiest households – on the right side of the graph – spend
about one month per year without enough food.
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21. Food consumption is also lowest among the poor. Recent data show that their calorie
consumption averages 1672 kcal per day, while the wealthiest consume 2367 kcal.
Using FAO methodology for estimating human energy requirements, we calculated the
daily kcal need for an average person in Ethiopia. Kcal requirements for individuals vary
according to their age, gender, size, physical activity level, and pregnancy state. Thus our
calculation of average kcal requirements reflects Ethiopia’s population composition.
[after animation]
We estimate that the average Ethiopian needs about 2212 kcal of energy per day. As we
can see, only the wealthiest 40% of rural Ethiopians meet this requirement, while the
poorest 60% have insufficient food consumption .
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22. Agricultural challenges and poverty combine to create food insecurity.
“Feeding a family is a challenge for women. Food prices often increase and sometimes we
don’t have enough to eat, especially when there is a shortage of rainfall.”
22

23. Food security is not only a matter of agricultural productivity; it is also a question of
poverty.
One indicator that is linked to poverty is the percentage of household expenditures that are
spent on food. The higher the percentage that goes towards food, the more vulnerable that
families are to changes in food prices.
Here we see that poorer families – again to the left of the graph – devote a larger
percentage of their expenditures to food than do the wealthier families on the right on the
graph. This is consistent with the pattern in other countries and is often described as
“Engel’s Law.”
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24. Household size also affects food consumption. Households with many people, to the right
on this graph, only spend about 7,000 Birr annually per person to purchase food.
Households with fewer people, to the left of the graph, have more resources to spend on
food for each person.
This is another marker of poverty, this time for large households.
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25. Plot size, which has been falling among rural households, also influences food
consumption. People living on plots of less than half a hectare – to the left on the graph –
spend far less per person on food than do people living on large plots.
This is yet another marker of poverty for those with small plots of land.
Small plot size is often a sign of rural crowding. Some agricultural areas in Ethiopia have
experienced a population explosion living on a finite land size, resulting in the subdivision
of plots amongst heirs. The plots of many in today’s generation are far smaller than in their
grandparents’ generation, and often do not produce enough crops – cash and subsistence –
to feed their large families.
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26. The Ethiopian government has recognized these issues and is implementing a
comprehensive response to food security and poverty, called the Productive Safety Nets
Programme, or PSNP. It is the largest anti-poverty and food security program in Africa,
outside of South Africa, and covers about 10% of the Ethiopian population, or about 8
million people. There is regional variation in programme coverage, with Tigray and Afar
having the highest coverage.
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27. Ethiopia’s population has grown tremendously in recent years.
The 1984 Census showed a population of 40 million,
[animation] growing to 53 million in 1994.
[animation] The most recent Census, in 2007, counted 74 million
people within the same borders.
[animation] Today’s population is an estimated 82 million
people.
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28. Now that we have reviewed Ethiopia today, we will look at how climate change might affect
this picture into the future.
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29. We used a computer model that is based on Ethiopian and international data to estimate
future food consumption under various scenarios.
We estimate that, if there were no climate change in the future, food consumption would
increase. However, with a growing population these increases will continue to fall short of
food requirements. By 2050, we estimate an average daily kcal shortfall of 133 kcal per
person.
How will climate change affect this situation?
29

30. Taking into account the effects of climate change, (primarily through its effects on
agricultural productivity), we estimate that food availability will decrease in the future. This
means that, by the year 2050, there will be an even larger shortfall between food
consumption and food requirements. We estimate an average daily kcal shortfall of 506
kcal.
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31. Another impact of climate change is on food prices, which are expected to increase. Here
we show the results of our model with the example of wheat. If there were no climate
change, we predict 2050 prices would be 58% higher than today, in real terms.
[animation]
With climate change we predict an even greater price increase. Here we see that wheat
prices are about 76% higher in 2050.
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32. Ethiopia’s population is growing rapidly, and will continue to grow into the future.
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35. Our population projections show that Ethiopia’s population will exceed 150
million by 2050. In a scenario of lower population growth, we estimate a 2050
population of 154 million. In a scenario of higher population growth, we
estimate a 2050 population of 194 million.
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36. Local people are aware of this growth and the effects it has on their lives and the future.
“Our population is increasing rapidly and our land holding size is diminishing with each
generation. If things continue as usual, feeding our children and grandchildren will be a
challenge.”
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37. Keeping in mind these population projections, based on our model we estimate that the
food requirements for Ethiopia will approximately double by 2050 under the low growth
scenario. This graph shows total food requirements as measured by the total national food
energy needed to feed the population.
[animation]
However, if Ethiopia follows the high growth scenario, we estimate that the total food
requirements for all Ethiopians will be even higher. By 2050, 25% more food would be
needed to adequately feed all Ethiopians than under the low growth scenario.
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38. Given these growth scenarios, what will food security look like for the people of Ethiopia in
the future?
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39. Remember that, with high population growth we estimate a 506 kcal shortfall by the year
2050.
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40. Alternatively, with low population growth, we estimate that there will be only a 127 kcal
shortfall in daily food consumption per person.
Remember that the food shortfall in 2050 without climate change was 133 kcal. Notice that
these two scenarios produce very similar food security outcomes! In other words, shifting
from high to low population growth almost precisely makes up for the decreased food
energy consumption due to climate change.
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41. One of the most important influences on the rate of population growth is fertility;
decreases in fertility result in lower population growth. And one of the most important
factors on fertility is the use of family planning.
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42. Ethiopia has made impressive recent advances in contraceptive use.
Here we can see a large increase in the percentage of married women using family
planning in Ethiopia. The recent increase from 15% to 29% is one of the fastest increases in
the world, demonstrating Ethiopia’s strong commitment to family planning.
Most contraceptive use in Ethiopia is modern methods.
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43. There is wide regional variation in Ethiopia in the use of family planning. Although the
national CPR is 28.6%, regional CPRs vary from 4.3% in Somali to 62.5% in Addis Ababa.
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44. Unmet need for family planning measures the percentage of married women who do not
want to have another child, or do not want another child in the next 2 years, yet are not
using family planning. These women are candidates for future family planning use because
they have expressed a desire to limit or space their births.
Unmet need has been decreasing in Ethiopia, but it remains high at 25% of married
women.
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45. Like the CPR, there is also wide regional variation in unmet need, from the national average
of 25.3%.
The lowest unmet need is in Addis Ababa at 10.6% and the highest is in Oromiya at 29.9%
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46. Mostly as a result of increased family planning, Ethiopia’s fertility has also been
falling. In 1990 there was an average of 6.4 births per woman whereas in 2011 this
was 4.8 births per woman.
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47. While family planning has an impact of fertility and thus on the pace of population growth,
it has important benefits for infant and child health.
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48. Let’s look first at child nutrition. In these data from the recent EDHS we can see that child
malnutrition also varies from region to region. Nationally, 28.7% of children under 5 are
considered to be underweight. Addis Ababa has the lowest percentage of underweight
children (6.4%), while Affar has the highest (40.2%).
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49. As we have seen that climate change can affect food consumption, and it can also affect
nutrition. Our analysis suggests that climate change will increase the number of
underweight children. Here we can see that without climate change over the next 40 years
we expect the number of malnourished children would first increase – due to population
growth – and then decrease with socioeconomic development.
[animation]
But climate change is predicted to increase the number of malnourished children, as
compared to a scenario without climate change. This is because of the lower food
consumption with climate change that we saw earlier and which affects children’s
nutritional status.
49

50. But lowering population growth (shown in green), would decrease the number of
underweight children in Ethiopia. This is due to two related characteristics of lower
population growth: first there are fewer children, and second each child has higher food
consumption.
By the year 2050 we expect 51% fewer malnourished children with low population
growth, as compared with high population growth.
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51. Another measurement of child and infant health is mortality. Here we can see that
mortality rates for both children under 5 and infants have decreased over the past 10 years.
However, today’s under 5 child mortality rate of 88 and infant mortality rate of 59 are still
high.
As we will see later, decreasing both these rates are key goals of Ethiopia’s development
plan.
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52. How does family planning decrease infant and child mortality rates?
Family planning can lead to fewer high-risk births. These are classified as those occurring
too early and too late in a mother’s life, too closely spaced, or too many total children.
Statistically there are well-established correlations between high-risk births and maternal,
infant and under 5 mortality. So fewer high-risk births means fewer maternal, infant, and
child deaths.
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53. As mentioned, births that are too closely spaced together lead to more infant
deaths. In Ethiopia, a child born less than 24 months after his or her older sibling
has an infant mortality rate of 208. When a baby is born between 2 and 3 years
after the older sibling, this mortality rate decreases by nearly a half to 105. It further
decreases to 66 with more than 4 years between births.
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54. Because of the decrease in high-risk births, and because there are fewer children, Ethiopia
will see fewer infant and child deaths under the low growth scenario. Compared with the
high growth scenario, by 2050 there will be 1.2 million fewer infant deaths and 1.9 fewer
child deaths.
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55. Now that we have seen the linkages between climate change, food security, and
population, what is the way forward?
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56. Ethiopia has a new Growth and Transformation Plan – GTP – that lays out the country’s
goals for 2015.
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57. The GTP provides strategic direction on the topics of climate change, food security, and
population.
Climate Change: “The evidence of these impacts shows how critical it is that climate
change adaptation strategies are put in place.”
Population and Development: “harmonizing the rate of population growth with the
country’s capacity to develop and use natural resources.”
Health: “Of particular importance … is the inter-sectoral collaboration in cross-cutting areas
such as water supply and sanitation, education, gender, population, and food supply.”
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58. The Health Sector has specific maternal and child health goals:
Increase CPR to 65% by 2015
Decrease:
maternal mortality
under 5 mortality
infant mortality
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59. These data paint a picture of strong support for family planning in Ethiopia.
Health Extension Workers have been vital in Ethiopia’s recent expansion of family planning
services, increasing the CPR from 14.7% to 28.6% in just six years.
HEWs have greatly expanded coverage of basic health services into remote rural areas.
There are 34,000 HEWs and15,000 health posts throughout the country.
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60. What is the population policy response to improve food security in the face of climate
change?
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61. Read slide
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62. Read slide
“Crosscutting issues like poverty, food security and others are aspects that should be
considered when planning interventions that address climate change and adaptation.”
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64. Read slide
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65. Read slide
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66. Read slide
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67. Read slide
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