1. EXPLORING THE WOOLWICH EFFECT
INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC DIALOGUE/UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM, JUNE 20 2013
Dr Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ

2. Let’s explore three assumptions…
1. Woolwich has triggered an anti-Islam backlash
-Not just numbers, but wider reservoir of hostility?
2. That the public response has been coherent
-But how have different social groups and generations
reacted?
1. Woolwich has triggered support for the far right
- Does online social media growth signal broader support?

3. Data and Methods
• Based on two surveys: (1) November 20-21 2012; (2) within 48 hours of Woolwich
• Survey based on random sample of 1,839 respondents from @YouGov online panel
• Weighted to profile of eligible UK voters on basis of internet
access, age, gender, social class, region, party ID and newspaper readership
• Any biases introduced by method extremely small and offset by larger sample size
• Surveys remain exploratory, should not be viewed as definitive
• Thanks @JoeTwyman and @YouGov
• So what did we find….

4. At first glance, Woolwich appears to have increased
expectations of violent group conflicts….
33
20
41
5
40
19
36
4
Agree Neither
agree/disagree
Disagree Don't know
% agreeing – ‘Violent conflict between white majority and ethnic
minorities in Britain is largely inevitable’
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

5. …and as before, these expectations of conflict are linked
specifically to Muslim communities….
% agreeing
12
13
20
50
17
20
25
59
There will be clash of civilizations
between white Brits and SIKHS
There will be clash of civilizations
between white Brits and HINDUS
There will be clash of civilizations
between white Brits and BLACK
BRITS
There will be clash of civilizations
between white Brits and MUSLIMS
Post-Woolwich Pre-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

6. But at the same time, wider public attitudes toward Muslims
held steady after Woolwich (albeit at worrying levels)…
% agreeing
41
62
43
36
40
63
48
38
Muslims make
important
contributions to
Britain
Most Muslims good
British citizens
Value diffs make
conflict w/ Muslims
inevitable
British Muslims
share majority values
& culture
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

7. In fact, after Woolwich citizens were more likely to see Muslims
as compatible with British way of life…
24
48
7
33
40
5
Net agree Net disagree Don't know
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

8. And while far more overwhelming, people generally stable in
views about whether ‘British people of all races’ get on well
together
44
25
4
42
27
4
Net agree Net disagree Don't know
Pre Woolwich Post Woolwich
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

9. So IF we did want to tackle some of this,
where should we be looking?
55
30
39
43
36
13
64
41
53 54
43
23
h between White Brits and MuslimsBritish Muslims pose threat to democracyFree speech threatened by MuslimsValue differences make conflict with Muslims inevitableMuslims not compatible with British lifeMuslims in plot to abolish p
ABC1 C2DE
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

10. …and a clear opportunity in a generational divide…
28
48
19
28
36
24
30
51
70
47
62
57
38
52
ween whites and BME inevitableWill be a clash of civilizations with MuslimsMuslims pose threat to democracyFree speech threatened by MuslimsValue differences make conflict inevitableBritish-born Muslims don't share majority valueMuslims not compatible with
18-24 60 and above
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

11. So, what effect did Woolwich have on the far right?

12. Taken from earlier work of M Goodwin, see @GoodwinMJ

13. But what was the effect of Woolwich on the group?
How much, if anything, do you know about the English Defence League?
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
33
42
19
6
42 41
12
4
hem and know exactly what they stand forHeard of them but unsure what they stand forNever heard of them Don't know
Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich

14. But did Woolwich fuel direct support for the far right?
How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?
77
9
1
13
84
6
1
9
Would never joinWould consider joiningConsider myself a memberDon't know
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)

15. … what about indirect sympathy for the group?
Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to your
view?
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
3
21
47
29
3
22
52
23
Agree with EDL
values & methods
Agree with EDL
values but not
methods
Do not agree with
EDL values or
methods
Don't know
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)

16. Was there broader national support for retaliatory action?
Some people are planning to hold counter-demos against
Muslim terrorism. What’s your view?
Asked to a random sample of 912 respondents
20
51
22
7
Positive Negative Neither positive
nor negative
Don't know

17. The English Defence League is planning to hold counter-
demos against Muslim terrorism. What’s your view?
N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)
20
51
22
7
17
60
17
6
Positive Negative Neither positive
nor negative
Don't know
Counter-Demos Demos by far right

18. What does it all mean?
• Picture far more complex, and in some way more positive
• Inconsistency of British public opinion a challenge
• No consistent and sharp shift in attitudes to anti-Islam backlash
• But a generational divide is an opportunity: will we seize it?
• But let’s not kid ourselves – big challenges remain
• A deepening rather than widening of far right support

19. Thanks. Full slides available at:
@GoodwinMJ