Manoj Saxena TED talk - Bending the Knowledge Curve with Cognitive Computing
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Watson Solutions General Manager Manoj Saxena's TED talk on Bending the Knowledge Curve: "We have only just begun a new era of Cognitive Computing which will dramatically influence our own evolution" http://bit.ly/13cyAGX
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Manoj Saxena TED talk - Bending the Knowledge Curve with Cognitive Computing
- 1. 1 Bending the knowledge curve with Cognitive Computing Manoj Saxena | General Manager IBM Watson @manojsaxena
- 3. 3 Person Organization L. Gerstner IBM J. Welch GE W. Gates Microsoft “If leadership is an art then surely Jack Welch has proved himself a master painter during his tenure at GE.” Welch ran this? Noses that run and feet that smell? How can a house burn up as it burns down? Does CPD represent a complex comorbidity of lung cancer? What mix of zero-coupon, non-callable, A+ munis fit my risk tolerance? Why is Watson a Big Deal?
- 4. 4 Humanity is at its next big inflection point ... Cuneiform Tablets Mesopotamia 34 B.C Gutenberg Press Europe 1450 A.D The Internet US (DoD) 1960 Cognitive Computers US (IBM) 2006 “Systems that are capable of learning from interactions with data and humans — continuously reprogramming themselves vs. being programmed by humans”
- 5. 5 Understands natural language and human communication Adapts and learns from user selections and responses Generates and evaluates evidence-based hypothesis …built on a massively parallel architecture optimized for IBM POWER7 1 2 3 IBM Watson combines transformational technologies to help computers understand and engage with us 200m pages in 3 seconds!
- 6. 6 Watson can read these medical records in six seconds!
- 7. 7 7 Symptoms UTI Diabetes Influenza Hypokalemia Renal Failure no abdominal pain no back pain no cough no diarrhea (Thyroid Autoimmune) Esophagitis pravastatin Alendronate levothyroxine hydroxychloroquine Diagnosis Models frequent UTI cutaneous lupus hyperlipidemia osteoporosis hypothyroidism SymptomsFam.History Pat.History MedicationsFindings Confidence difficulty swallowing dizziness anorexia fever dry mouth thirst frequent urination Family History Graves’ Disease Oral cancer Bladder cancer Hemochromatosis Purpura Patient HistoryMedicationsFindings supine 120/80 mm HG urine dipstick: leukocyte esterase urine culture: E. Coli heart rate: 88 bpm Symptoms A 58-year-old woman complains of dizziness, anorexia, dry mouth, increased thirst, and frequent urination. She had also had a fever. She reported no pain in her abdomen, back, and no cough, or diarrhea. A 58-year-old woman presented to her primary care physician after several days of dizziness, anorexia, dry mouth, increased thirst, and frequent urination. She had also had a fever and reported that food would “get stuck” when she was swallowing. She reported no pain in her abdomen, back, or flank and no cough, shortness of breath, diarrhea, or dysuria Family History Her family history included oral and bladder cancer in her mother, Graves' disease in two sisters, hemochromatosis in one sister, and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura in one sister Patient History Her history was notable for cutaneous lupus, hyperlipidemia, osteoporosis, frequent urinary tract infections, a left oophorectomy for a benign cyst, and primary hypothyroidism, diagnosed a year earlier Her medications were levothyroxine, hydroxychloroquine, pravastatin, and alendronate. MedicationsFindings A urine dipstick was positive for leukocyte esterase and nitrites. The patient given a prescription fo ciprofloxacin for a urinary tract infection. 3 days later, patient reported weakness and dizziness. Her supine blood pressure was 120/80 mm Hg, and pulse was 88. • Extract Symptoms from record • Use paraphrasings mined from text to handle alternate phrasings and variants • Perform broad search for possible diagnoses • Score Confidence in each diagnosis based on evidence so far • Identify negative Symptoms • Reason with mined relations to explain away symptoms (thirst is consistent w/ UTI) • Extract Family History • Use Medical Taxonomies to generalize medical conditions to the granularity used by the models • Extract Patient History• Extract Medications • Use database of drug side-effects • Together, multiple diagnoses may best explain symptoms • Extract Findings: Confirms that UTI was present Most Confident Diagnosis: DiabetesMost Confident Diagnosis: UTIMost Confident Diagnosis: EsophagitisMost Confident Diagnosis: Influenza Putting the pieces together at point of impact can be game changing can be life changing
- 8. 8 Medicine In 2020 Watson will change the way Medicine is: RESEARCHED • MD Anderson’s Moon Shot program PRACTICED • Memorial Sloan-Kettering, Community Cancer Care Centers TAUGHT • Students learning from and “teaching” Watson at the Cleveland Clinic
- 9. 9 Contact Center Healthcare Financial Services Government Diagnostic/treatment assistance, evidenced- based insights, collaborative medicine Investment and retirement planning, institutional trading and decision support Call center and tech support services, enterprise knowledge management, consumer insight Public safety, improved information sharing, security Cognitive Systems will enable mass movement in core industries by bending the knowledge curve
- 10. 10 We are about to get “Schumpetered” from this Super Convergence Cloud Social Mobile Big Data Analytics Millennials
- 11. 11 1 1900 1950 20XX Watson Jeopardy! System circa 2011 Cognitive Computing “Brain Cube” aka SyNAPSE circa 2020 We have only just begun a new era of Cognitive Computing Calculate rapidly Learn from data & interactions
- 12. 12 Watson represents the beginning of a great shift in our own evolution “Homo sapiens have had it, Homo digitus* is the future” *David Zeitlyn X
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Main Point: At the core of what makes Watson different are three powerful technologies - natural language, hypothesis generation, and evidence based learning. But Watson is more than the sum of its individual parts. Watson is about bringing these capabilities together in a way that’s never been done before resulting in a fundamental change in the way businesses look at quickly solving problems Solutions that learn with each iteration Capable of navigating human communication Dynamically evaluating hypothesis to questions asked Responses optimized based on relevant data Ingesting and analyzing Big Data Discovering new patterns and insights in seconds Further speaking points: . Looking at these one by one, understanding natural language and the way we speak breaks down the communication barrier that has stood in the way between people and their machines for so long. Hypothesis generation bypasses the historic deterministic way that computers function and recognizes that there are various probabilities of various outcomes rather than a single definitive ‘right’ response. And adaptation and learning helps Watson continuously improve in the same way that humans learn….it keeps track of which of its selections were selected by users and which responses got positive feedback thus improving future response generation Additional information : The result is a machine that functions along side of us as an assistant rather than something we wrestle with to get an adequate outcome
- Main point: Watson has already changed industries around the world by expanding the expectations that tens of millions of people have about technology and its possibilities to help them live and work better. And as Watson is deployed in more and more industries it will continue to raise the bar for business technology. In many ways, the barriers that have for so long kept IT from meeting its full potential for helping us live and work better are falling. The only barriers are our own imaginations. How can Watson help you? Further speaking points: . Moving beyond healthcare, the Watson team is exploring opportunities to help financial planners help their investment and retirement planning customers and help institutional traders make better decisions. The team is working with contact centers improve their call center and tech support services, improve enterprise knowledge management , and improve customer insight. And the team is working with governments to improve public safety, public information sharing and security. Additional information : IBM Watson has the capabilities to address grand business and societal challenges
- Main Point: Watson represents a whole new class of industry specific solutions called cognitive systems. It builds on the current paradigm of Programmatic Systems and is not meant to be a replacement; programmatic systems will be with us for the foreseeable future. But in many cases, keeping pace with the demands of an increasingly complex business environment and challenges requires a paradigm shift in what we should expect from IT. We need an approach that recognizes today’s realities and treats them as opportunities rather than challenges. Further speaking points: For example, most digitized information of the past was structured. It was organized into tables, stored in easily identified cells in databases, and easily searched and accessed. Unstructured information was largely ignored as too difficult to utilize…and therefore it lay fallow. Similarly, traditional IT has largely limited itself to deterministic applications. 2+2=4. 100cm in a meter. Situations where there is only one answer to a question But this rules out a whole world of real world situations that have a more probabilistic outcome. It is very likely that the car will not start because of a dead battery but there is a chance there is a clog in the fuel line. It is very likely to be sunny tomorrow but it may rain. Traditional IT relies on search to find the location of a key phrase. Emerging IT gathers information and combines it for true discovery. Traditional IT can handle only small sets of focused data while IT today must live with big data. And traditional IT interacts with machine language while what we as users really need is interaction the way we ourselves communicate – in natural language.