The document provides an introduction to challenges faced by carbon-based economies and the need for sustainable energy transitions. It discusses how climate change from greenhouse gas emissions threatens human well-being and socioeconomic development. While global CO2 emissions have recently stagnated, more action is needed to limit global warming below 2°C as agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. Renewable energy and energy efficiency can significantly reduce emissions by 2030 and help achieve climate targets, but ambitious implementation is required. Sustainable Development Goals also aim to raise awareness of climate change's multidimensional impacts on issues like poverty and health.

1. DESIRE Basic Module
−
Energy Transitions and
Socioeconomics
Sustainable Energy System Transition Processes -
Introduction (DESIRE Basic Module)
ToT Workshop Amman, January 10-11, 2018
Dr. Thomas Fink
Economist and Research Fellow
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

2. Introduction of the
Wuppertal Institute for
Climate, Environment and
Energy
2Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

3. Wuppertal Institute
Application-oriented Sustainability Research
3Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! The WI explores and develops models, strategies
and instruments to support transitions towards
sustainable development at local, national and
international levels.
! Sustainability research at the WI focuses on
resource, climate and energy challenges in
relation to economy and society.
! Our research analyses and initiates technological
and social innovations that decouple economic
growth from nature use and wealth.
! Scientific policy consulting institute (think
tank), no university
! Independent connecting point between
basic science (universities) and policy /
business and society

4. Wuppertal Institute
Facts and figures
4Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! President: Prof. Dr. Uwe Schneidewind
! Vice President: Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick
! Head of Administration: Brigitte Mutert
! Founded 1991 as Non-Profit-Organisation;
! Ownership: State of North Rhine-Westphalia
! Multi-disciplinary team: ≈200 employees /
110 scientists from diverse backgrounds
(plus approx. 60 PhD Students)
! Projects: 80 - 120 third party funded projects per
year
! Organisation: 3 Research groups:
! Future Energy and Mobility Structures
! Climate Energy and Transport Policy
! Sustainable Consumption and Production Berlin)Office)
Wuppertal)
headquarter)

5. Transition research
Research focus „Ruhr Region“ (respectively NRW) – a potential blueprint for other
industry regions transitions of their economic model
5Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! approx. 18 Mio. inhabitants (more than in the Netherlands)
! 34.084 km2 surface area
! 90% of German hard coal extraction
! 50% of German lignite extraction
! 40% of German energy consumption
! 35% of German CO2-emissions (290 Mio. t in 2007)
25 % mid-term GHG mitigation target 1990 bis 2020
80-95% long-term GHG mitigation target 1990 bis 2050
! 33% of German electricity generation (net export country)
! approx. 80% of electricity generation is based on coal
! approx. 30.000 MW installed power plant capacity
! approx. 1.1 Mio. employees in energy sector
NRW – the energy economic heart of Germany
Wuppertal))
Berlin)
Munich)
Hamburg)
Frankfurt)
Stu?gart)

6. Understanding
the System
Enabling
Transitions
Transitions to what?
Defining Targets
System-Knowledge
(Understanding socio-technical
systems in their natural
environment)
Transformation-
Knowledge
(Enabling complex societal
transitions)
Target-Knowledge
(Defining socio-ecological
targets for a sustainable world)
Policies
Economy
Technology
Society
Climate
Resources
Land-
use
Infra-
structure
Multilevel
Transition-
Cycle
Experiments
Developing
Sustainability
visions, concrete
concepts and
transition
agendas
Problem -
AssessmentVision-
DevelopmentExperiments
Learning
Mobilizing actors
and executing
projects and
experiments
Problem assess-
ment, establish-
ment and further
development of
the transition
arena
Evaluating,
monitoring
and learning for
large-scale
diffusion
&
Up-scaling
Land
use
Climate
Reso-
urces
Well-
fare
Global
justice
Transition research at the Wuppertal Institute
Provision of system, target and transformation knowledge
6Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

7. DESIRE Basic Module:
Motivation and
implementation
7Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

8. 8Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
DESIRE Basic Module
Motivation
! Module intends to provide an overall introduction and framing
(“storyline”) for all DESIRE modules
! Within the basic module the experience of the Wuppertal Institute on
energy transition processes is reflected
! Basic module provides to understanding about the need for a
sustainable energy transition and provides and provides a general
overview about socioeconomic impacts
! Transition processes are described including characteristics, driver
and challenges (including theoretical concepts)
! The specific role of socioeconomic impacts of renewable energies
with regards to the social acceptance of complex energy transition
strategies are illustrated

9. 9Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
DESIRE Basic Module
Implementation
! Basic module should be implemented as overall framework (“storyline”)
at each partner institution
! Each partner institution should adjust the basic module according to
individual needs at universities (existing curricula) and students
e.g., country specific data, case studies and examples.
! Basic module intends to be an introduction on the topic of socioeconomic
impacts of renewable energies and transition processes, but not a full
teaching module!
! Details on selected socioeconomic topics are provided with additional
modules
! DESIRE modules intend to complement existing teaching materials on
renewable energy technologies (e.g., technological perspective, etc.)
! Basic module intends as “working version” and needs to be updated
and complemented over time by partner institutions

10. 10Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
DESIRE Basic Module
Implementation
! Partner institutions identify teaching staff which will implement the
modules in courses
! Two trainings on the basic modules are provided
! Identified teaching staff will be the responsible contact at each partner
institution
! Handbook for supporting the application of the basic module is under
development
! Additional materials have been prepared for the trainings that will
support the application and can also support the extension of materials
according to individual needs

11. DESIRE Basic Module will cover six sub-chapters
Challenges faced by carbon based
economies
11Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
1.
Renewable energy technologies2.
Energy market structures and
stakeholders
3.
Energy system transition process4.
5. Energy transition phase model
6. Energy market transition experiences
Understanding negative impacts of fossil fuels
in the context of sustainable development and
why a sustainable transition of the energy
system is needed
Introduction of technologies and highlighting
the benefits of technology implementation with
regard to socio-economic dimensions
Understanding typical energy market structures
(centralized system approach), tendencies and
recent trends in renewable energy dominated
market structures (decentralized system
approach)
Theoretical background of the Multi-Level-
Perspective (MLP) approach. Challenges faced
in the energy system transition process
Identification of transition phases to
understand drivers and barriers for achieving
next (identification of road maps)
Using Germany as example for illustrating the
complexity of the energy system transition
process

12. Any questions so far?
12Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

13. Challenges faced by carbon
based economies
Understanding socio-economic
impacts of fossil fuels in the context
of sustainable development
13Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
1.

14. 14Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Content
! Climate change and global warming
as global driver for the transition of
energy systems
! Global trends and initiatives
! Renewable energies and energy
efficiency as option for GHG
mitigation
! Conflicting goals of sustainable
development
Why becoming active?
What is ongoing at the
moment?
Why going for RE?
Why is sustainability a
challenge?

15. Climate change as
an alarming issue
15Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

16. Climate Change is still an alarming issue
GHG concentration increased significantly over the last decade and has approached
more than 400ppm
16Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
“Today the Earth is already 1°C hotter than at the start
of the twentieth century. We are halfway to the critical
2°C threshold. National climate change plans adopted
so far may not be enough to avoid a temperature rise of
3°C, but we can avert the worst-case scenarios with
urgent and far-reaching measures to cut carbon dioxide
emissions,” said Dr. Taalas (World Meteorological
Organization, 2016).

17. Understanding the role of GHG emissions
CO2 with high importance in global warming
17Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! Carbon dioxide (CO2): about 60% of the human made GHG emissions are related to
CO2 which includes a lifetime in the atmosphere of up to 200 years
! Methane (CH4): human made methane is related to agriculture (rice production, cattle
farming, etc.) and forestry, biomass, waste, etc. But also leaks in the exploitation and
transportation of gas has high importance in emissions (increasing importance in gas
fracking). CH4 has a global warming potential 25 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2)
and includes a lifetime in the atmosphere of around 12 years.
! Nitrous oxide (N2O): human made nitrous oxide is related to agriculture (livestock
farming, fertilization, biomass, and fossil fuels from power plants and traffic). N2O has
a global warming potential 298 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2) and includes a
lifetime in the atmosphere of 114 years.
! ...
Carbon dioxide of very high importance with regard to global
warming, however, further GHG emissions have to be taken
into account from different sectors to reduce global warming
Source:
IPCC: https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/016.htm
!

18. Climate Change is still an alarming issue
Affecting the well-being of humans
18Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Climate change and global warming is correlated with
- droughts
- crop failure
- flooding
- storms
- etc.
affecting the well-being and livelihood of people (socio-
economic development)
Reference)
Scenario))
>)4°C)!)
Source: UNFCCC 2016

19. Climate Change is still an alarming issue
GHG gases emissions by economic sector
19Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Electricity and
heating sector plays
a key role in global
GHG emissions and
has to be part of
mitigation measures
IPCC 2014
AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry, and other land use

20. But there are also
promising
trends…
20Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

21. Climate Change is still an alarming issue
But there are promising trends
Promising trends:
! 2014-2016: Global energy-
related CO2 emissions stagnated
although the global economy
grew (decoupling of emissions
and economic activity)
! Renewable energy based
electricity production (PV, Wind)
becomes competitive (MENA
among the lowest cost)
! Co-Benefits („blue sky above
China“) enforce CO2 mitigation
measures
! Decarbonization on top of the Agenda of G7 summit at Elmau Germany and
core topic in Enzyclica of the pope
! United Nations launched Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
! COP 21 (Paris 2015) marked a mental turnaround with respect to international
climate negotiations
21Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Source:!IEA!2017!
Resulting from growing RE generation, switches from
coal to gas, increasing energy efficiency, and structural
changes in economy.
Declining emissions have been experienced especially
in USA and China, while a stagnation could be seen in
Europa, and an increase in most of the rest of the world.
There is still an urgent need for actions!

22. Clear statements in 2015 to decarbonize the global economy and to mitigate
global warming according to climate change
! Decarbonisation of the global economy is needed
G7 2015 Decisions Elmau (June 2015):
! Decarbonisation globally by 2100
! Achieving a low-carbon global economy
! Innovative technologies required and striving for a
transformation of the energy sectors by 2050
! Develop national long term low-carbon strategies
! COP 21 results significantly determine climate policy discussion
and foster need for energy system transformation in the country
(2015):
! For the first time total community of states undersigns treaty that requests GHG
mitigation (not binding, voluntary character via INDC: intended national
determined contribution helps to include formerly difficult countries (e.g. USA,
China))
! Clear common target: limitation of temperature increase
significantly below (!) 2°C
! Emission peak should be reached as soon as possible
! GHG neutrality should be achieved during the second half of the century
(Decarbonisation!)
22Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

23. Clear statements in 2015 to decarbonize the global economy and to mitigate
global warming according to climate change
! Decarbonisation of the global economy is needed
G7 2015 Decisions Elmau (June 2015):
! Decarbonisation globally by 2100
! Achieving a low-carbon global economy
! Innovative technologies required and striving for a
transformation of the energy sectors by 2050
! Develop national long term low-carbon strategies
! COP 21 results significantly determine climate policy discussion
and foster need for energy system transformation in the country
(2015):
! For the first time total community of states undersigns treaty that requests GHG
mitigation (not binding, voluntary character via INDC: intended national
determined contribution helps to include formerly difficult countries (e.g. USA,
China))
! Clear common target: limitation of temperature increase
significantly below (!) 2°C
! Emission peak should be reached as soon as possible
! GHG neutrality should be achieved during the second half of the century
(Decarbonisation!)
23Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
...but, a rulebook on how the Paris
Agreement should be implemented
is still outstanding!
Rulebook should be completed in
2018 and agreed at COP 24 and has
also to include measures in case
targets are not achieved

24. The decarbonization of the energy system is not a linear pathway…
24Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
President Donald Trump
announced in June 2017
he is withdrawing the
United States from the
Paris Agreement.
Strong support still guaranteed by further countries
“We deem the momentum generated in Paris in December 2015 irreversible,
and we firmly believe that the Paris agreement cannot be renegotiated, since it
is a vital instrument for our planet, societies and economies,” said German
chancellor Angela Merkel, French president Emmanuel Macron and Italian prime
minister Paolo Gentiloni.

25. The role of renewable
energies and energy
efficiency in
addressing climate
change and global
warming
Source: UNFCCC 2016 25Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

26. Ambitious renewable energy and energy efficiency measures until 2030 can
contribute significantly to reduce global CO2 emissions and create the basis
for a 1.5-2.0°C pathway - it is still possible!
Source: IRENA, 2016 26Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
2030!

27. Ambitious renewable energy and energy efficiency measures until 2030 can
contribute significantly to reduce global CO2 emissions and create the basis
for a 1.5-2.0°C pathway - it is still possible!
27Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! Climate targets can still be achieved, but not much time is left!
! For achieving the 1.5-2.0°C pathway GHG emissions must be limited to 20 Gt in
2030 (reduction from 35 Gt in 2014 is needed)
! Renewable energy and energy efficiency measures must be part of climate change
mitigation strategies
! Scenarios with longer timelines foresee particularly the implementation of Carbon
Capture Storage (CCS) solutions but high uncertainties with that technology still exist
(e.g., further cost reductions are needed, large-scale applications are missed, questions
about storages exist, social acceptance of such strategies needs further research, ...)
What will be the consequence if CCS becomes not
reality and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are not
limited on time?
IPCC foresees an temperature increase of more than 4 degrees until
2100 in reference scenarios!

28. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) a possible option to raise
awareness of multi-dimensional problems
Climate change has strong impacts on the achievement of SDGs
Source: United Nations 2015
28Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

29. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) a possible option to raise
awareness of multi-dimensional problems
Climate change has strong impacts on the achievement of SDGs
Source: United Nations 29Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! With the SDGs a UN framework out of 17 goals (169 sub-targets) exists to end
poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all
! Each SDG has specific targets that should be achieved by 2030
! SDGs replace the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and apply for all countries
in the world (MDGs focused on developing countries only)
! SDGs have been determined by a Open Work Group representing 70 countries (MDGs
were determined by experts at the UN headquarter
Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs)
Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs)

30. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) a possible option to raise
awareness of multi-dimensional problems
Climate change has strong impacts on the achievement of SDGs
Source: United Nations 30Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Goal 1:
End poverty in all its forms
everywhere
Goal 2:
End hunger, achieve food security
and improved nutrition and promote
sustainable agriculture
Goal 3:
Ensure healthy lives and promote
well-being for all at all ages
Goal 4:
Ensure inclusive and quality
education for all and promote
lifelong learning
Goal 5:
Achieve gender equality and
empower all women and girls
Goal 6:
Ensure access to water and
sanitation for all
Goal 7:
Ensure access to affordable,
reliable, sustainable and modern
energy for all
Goal 8:
Promote inclusive and sustainable
economic growth, employment and
decent work for all
Goal 9:
Build resilient infrastructure, promote
sustainable industrialization and foster
innovation
Goal 10:
Reduce inequality within and
among countries
Goal 11:
Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient
and sustainable
Goal 12:
Ensure sustainable consumption
and production patterns
Goal 13:
Take urgent action to combat
climate change and its impacts
Goal 14:
Conserve and sustainably use the
oceans, seas and marine resources
Goal 15:
Sustainably manage forests, combat
desertification, halt and reserve land
degradation, holt biodiversity loss
Goal 16:
Promote just, peaceful and inclusive
societies
Goal 17:
Revitalize the global partnership for
sustainable development

31. Affordable and clean energy supports all SDGs
Renewable energies play a key role for sustainable development
31Wuppertal)Ins-tut) Source:!IRENA,!2017!
Dimension
Sustainable
Growth
Dimension
Human
Development
Dimension
Environmental
Sustainability

32. 32Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
The transformation of the energy
system is not just necessary for
addressing climate change
Fossil fuel based energy systems
affect further basic human needs
such as water supply!

33. Understanding the broader Water-Climate-Energy-(Food)-Nexus
Complex and various interactions
Water Energy
! Cooling for thermal power plants
! Hydropower
! Irrigation of bioenergy crops
! Extraction and refining
! Extraction and transportation
! Water treatment/desalination
! Wastewater, drainage, treatment, and
disposal
Food
Energy is needed to supply water
Water is needed to generate energy
33Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

34. Understanding the broader Water-Climate-Energy-(Food)-Nexus
Projections of increasing demands on water-energy-food sectors in 2050
F
At the sam
Figure 1–Proj
me time, the
jections of de
e world is r
emand on wate
reaching, an
er-energy-foo
nd in some
od sectors in 2
cases has a
050 (source :
already exc
IRENA, 2015
ceeded, the
5)
sustainablee
Source: IRENA, 2015 34Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

35. Coal energy accounts already for 7% of all water withdrawal globally and is
set to double in the next 20 years
Assessment of the entire coal power value chain against water consumption is
needed
Electricity production
Water is used for cooling, running steam
turbines and washing out coal ash
Resource exploitation
Large quantities of surface and ground water
are long-term polluted as consequence of
mining
Source: Greenpeace, 2016 35Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

36. Global coal strategies
Existing and new power plants are especially located in regions with water stress
(suffering from climate change)
Strategies in India and China particularly
foresee to invest into coal power plants,
however both countries are already suffering
from water stress
New coal power plants are proposed in the
Western United States, a region that is
already suffering from high water stress
Source: Greenpeace, 2016 36Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Illustration of existing coal
power plants and coal
power plants under
development

37. Water-induced cuts in hydro, coal and nuclear power generation are already
reality today and not part of a future story!
Source: IASS, 2016 37Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Reduced water availability
jeopardizes the energy
security

38. Renewables provide a solution for tomorrow’s water resource
challenges and for addressing climate change
Source: Greenpeace, 2016
Assessment of
technologies with regard
to their contribution to
sustainable development
is needed
Wind and PV need less water resources for
operation and address water scarcity in regions
with water stress
Water demand for fossil fired power plants
depend on cooling systems – in comparison
cooling towers are associated with less water
demand (but also reduced electrical efficiency)
38Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

39. But fossil fuel power generation
technologies affect further aspects of
human well-being
39Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! Coal, oil or gas power plants affect air quality
! Coal mines affect in many cases homes and livings areas of people
(resettlement)
! Mining and extraction of fossil fuel resources are risky works
! Hazardous wastes have negative impacts on people and future generations
(e.g. nuclear waste)
! Fossil fuels are not available in each country which jeopardize energy
security
! …

40. Power generation
technologies are needed that
contribute to the socio-
economic development of
countries and societies
40Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

41. What does socio-economic development
exactly mean?
41Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
! Socio-economic development is a process that addresses social
and economic needs of the society in the long run
! Instead of a pure economic growth, socio-economic development
includes economic development leading to qualitative changes in
structures (e.g. production and employment) and institutions
! Socio-economic development sets economic development in the
overall societal context (interplay of economic and societal
development)
Socio-economic impacts are phenomena
that apply to the social sphere as much as
to the economic sphere

42. Socio-economic impacts in the context of sustainable development
Understanding tensions between different dimensions and targets
42Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Social))
Environmental) Economic)
Sustainable)
Development)
Sustainability
triangle as
underlying
principle

43. 43Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Having the sustainability
triangle as underlying
principle in mind for the
transition to the future
energy system and the
assessment of technologies

44. Technology assessment in the context of the sustainability triangle
Holistic assessment of energy technologies is required
44Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Consideration of
different targets
required (finding
the balance)
Source:!IRENA,!2016!
Exemplary
illustration of
selected criteria
used for the
assessment of
technologies

45. Technology assessment in the context of the sustainability triangle
Energy technology assessment against the different dimensions of sustainable
development to support “welfare” creation in societies
45Wuppertal)Ins-tut) Source:!IRENA,!2016!

46. Technology assessment in the context of the sustainability triangle
Energy technology assessment against the different dimensions of sustainable
development to support “welfare” creation in societies
46Wuppertal)Ins-tut) Source:!IRENA,!2016!
Need for identification of
criteria that can measure
socio-economic
development (assessment of
technologies for the
achievement of targets)

47. Technology assessment in the context of the sustainability triangle is
needed to provide sustainable solutions for current trends
47Wuppertal)Ins-tut) Source: Steffen et al., 2015.
Overview of
selected socio-
economic
dimensions
During the last decades a
strong increase in socio-
economic trends can be
identified....

48. Technology assessment in the context of the sustainability triangle is
needed to provide sustainable solutions for current trends
48Wuppertal)Ins-tut) Source: Steffen et al., 2015.
…, but also increasing
pressure on the earth
system

49. Any questions?
49Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

50. But technical potentials for renewable
energies are facing huge differences
among global regions
Every region and country has to use
individual resources
75Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

51. Energy system transition
process
Identification of drivers and barriers
for the energy transition
117Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
4.

52. 118Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Content
! Motivation for energy transitions
! Concept of the Multi-Level-Perspective
! System innovations as drivers for changing
the socio-technical landscape
What are energy
transitions?
How does the
transition process
look like?
How do system
innovations look
like?!

53. 119Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Background

54. 120Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Motivation for energy transition
How to live well within environmental limits?
Source: EEA 2016
A lot of countries live well
today but have to reduce
their ecological footprint,
while others still need to
improve their living
conditions
Human Development Index is an
indicator that measures the
lifespan, level of education, and
GDP per capita
Ecological Footprint measures the ecological assets that one person needs to produce the
resources it consumes and to absorb its waste.

55. 121Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
System innovations as solution (?)
Why are system innovations different from system optimization?
Factor 10
Factor 2 System optimization
System innovation
Time (years)
Reduction on impact on
environment
5 10 15 20
System optimization will not be
sufficient for the achievement of
needed enviornmental impact
reduction

56. Why do transitions take place?
Persistent problems demand fundamental solutions
! Regular policy offers no solutions
! Market creation and commodification is not a solution
! Incremental institutionalism is not sufficient
Against that background transitions are
fundamental shifts in the systems that fulfill societal needs,
through profound changes in dominant structures, practices,
technologies, policies, lifestyles, thinking …
122Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

57. What are (energy) transitions
exactly and how can they be
defined?
123Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

58. Characteristics of transitions
! Transformation processes are frequently driven through crises and
scarcity situations
! Transformation processes occur rapidly when existing structures reach
their limits, present behavioral patterns stop working and established
business models are declining (society is otherwise characterized by risk
and change reluctance)
! Transformation processes are successful, when
they have a clear objective and the (additional) benefit can be transferred
sufficient technological possibilities exist and are embedded in social and
cultural contexts (embedded technologies)
demonstration projects can be used to show how the processes can be
implemented and that a high level of partaking is possible
! Transformation processes require the active change of socio-technical
regimes through (niche) innovations
124Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

59. Characteristics of energy system transitions
Sustainable energy transformation processes are characterized by...
! high dynamics in very conservative (structures) sector
! high uncertainties and increasing complexity (inclusive the overlapping in
infrastructure systems)
! structural decision nodes with regard to the allocation of limited goods or the
development of new infrastructures (decisions could lead to lock-in effects and
insufficient flexibility for upcoming innovation / new developments)
! international developments and resulting opportunities and boundaries - import of
renewable power and power based fuels and feedstock for industry
Decisions with regard to the energy system transformation must taken into account:
! Management of uncertainties and complexity (resulting from uncertain market conditions
and complex transformation processes)
! Prevention lock-in effects and path dependencies as well as political and economic risks
! Guarantee of sufficient opportunities for adjustment and flexibility
125Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

60. Sustainable energy system transition process does not follow a linear path
Electricity!
X!%!
Electricity!
100%!RE!
2014
Shareofrenewableenergies
Total!Energy!
X!%!
Total!
Energy!
100%!RE!
Supply structure completely
based on renewable
energies – Power-to-X as
important enabling option
15
Kriterien für die Standortwahl.
Verfügbarkeit einer erneuerbaren Strom-
quelle (Menge und Angebotscharakteris-
tik). Zusätzlich wird auch das Stromnetz
maximal entlastet, wenn die Elektroly-
seureinderNähedererneuerbarenStrom-
erzeuger stehen. Gleichwohl kann aus
Gründen der Kostenoptimierung die Ins-
tallation größerer Elektrolyseure an zen-
tralen Stromnetzknoten sinnvoll sein.
Absatz- und Vertriebsmöglichkeiten für
Wasserstoff bzw. Methan
Wasserstoffaufnahmekapazität des Gas-
netzes bei direkter Einspeisung von H2.
Für Elektrolyseure ist ein Standort mit
einem ganzjährig kontinuierlich hohen
e f f i z i e n z e n t s c h e i d e t .
Gasdurchfluss im Erdgasnetz von Vorteil,
da hier größere Mengen Wasserstoff
eingespeist werden können.
Für große Wasserelektrolyseure mit nach-
geschalteter Methanisierung ist die räum-
liche Nähe zu Gasspeichern ein wichtiger
Standortfaktor, wenn die Transportkapa-
zitäten nicht ausreichen.
Für die Methanisierung ist eine Kohlen-
dioxidquelle notwendig.
Wirtschaftliche Absatzmöglichkeiten
für die Nebenprodukte Wärme und
Sauerstoff steigern zusätzlich den ener-
getischen Nutzungsgrad und die Wirt-
schaftlichkeit.
Standortwahl.
Die Standortwahl hat maßgeblichen Ein-
fluss auf die Kosten einer Power-to-Gas-
Anlage. Die Auswahl des Standorts richtet
sich nach dem Geschäftsmodell der ge-
planten Anlage. Dabei muss sich die Wahl
an den Gegebenheiten sowohl im Strom-
als auch im Gasnetz orientieren. So ist
zum Beispiel für die Methanisierung die
räumliche Nähe zu einer Kohlendioxid-
quelle von Vorteil.
H2
H2
H2
CO2
CH4
CH4
H2
O2
CO2
Standortfaktoren Power to Gas
Power-to-Gas-Anlage
Industrieanlage/Raffinerie H2-Tankstelle
Strom aus
erneuerbaren
Energien
Gasnetz
H2- und
Erdgasspeicher
Strom
Biogasanlage
Due to limited national potentials -
import of RE electricity or RE based
synthetic fuels might be crucial
Guarantee further market dynamics
(renewable energies) and foster energy
efficiency as second strategic pillar
Source:DENA2013
Different phases of the transition process require substantial decisions
considering complexity and uncertainties of a dynamic system
!

61. Sustainable energy system transition process does not follow a linear path
Electricity!
X!%!
2014
Shareofrenewableenergies
Total!Energy!
X!%!
Total!
Energy!
100%!RE!
Supply structure completely
based on renewable
energies – Power-to-X as
important enabling option
Electricity!
100%!RE!
H2
H2
H2
CO2
CH4
CH4
H2
O2
CO2
Standortfaktoren Power to Gas
Power-to-Gas-Anlage
Industrieanlage/Raffinerie H2-Tankstelle
Strom aus
erneuerbaren
Energien
Gasnetz
H2- und
Erdgasspeicher
Strom
Biogasanlage
Due to limited national potentials -
import of RE electricity or RE based
synthetic fuels might be crucial
Guarantee further market dynamics
(renewable energies) and foster energy
efficiency as second strategic pillar
Source:DENA2013
Different phases of the transition process require substantial decisions
considering complexity and uncertainties of a dynamic system
!

62. Prevent path dependencies
Decisions need a comprehensive assessment against the aspect of high
flexibility
With an increasing number of decisions over time path dependencies could
be the result (e.g., investments into baseload power structures with very
long life times) that would allow a decreasing number of options (reduced
flexibility) and might result in so-called lock-in effects
7
2.4 Die drei Phasen der Pfadabhängigikeit
Abbildung 1: In Anlehnung an die Konstitution eines Pfades15
Bei der Betrachtung des obigen Schaubilds erkennt man die spezifische
Darstellung der drei Phasen.
Die erste Phase wird Präformationsphase genannt. Diese ist charakterisiert durch
Source: Burger 2012 128Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Energy system with high
flexibility
Reduced flexibility due to
specific decision notes
(e.g. centralized energy
system)
Adjustments of the energy system
for upcoming innovations needs
strong efforts (e.g. due to long-term
investments into baseload power
plants)

63. Steering of transition requires
knowledge regarding the design of
transformation processes that
includes knowledge about goals,
systems and transformations
129Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

64. Understanding
the System
Enabling
Transitions
Transitions to what?
Defining Targets
System-Knowledge
(Understanding socio-technical
systems in their natural
environment)
Transformation-
Knowledge
(Enabling complex societal
transitions)
Target-Knowledge
(Defining socio-ecological
targets for a sustainable world)
Policies
Economy
Technology
Society
Climate
Resources
Land-
use
Infra-
structure
Multilevel
Transition-
Cycle
Experiments
Developing
Sustainability
visions, concrete
concepts and
transition
agendas
Problem -
AssessmentVision-
DevelopmentExperiments
Learning
Mobilizing actors
and executing
projects and
experiments
Problem assess-
ment, establish-
ment and further
development of
the transition
arena
Evaluating,
monitoring
and learning for
large-scale
diffusion
&
Up-scaling
Land
use
Climate
Reso-
urces
Well-
fare
Global
justice
Knowledge regarding the design of transformation processes is needed
(knowledge about goals, systems and transformations)
130Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

65. Any questions so far?
131Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

66. The Multi-Level Perspective (MLP)
as an illustrative method to
understand how niche innovations
change socio-technical regimes
Methodological concept for complex
energy system transition processes
132Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

67. Source: according to Geels 2005 133Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Multi-Level Perspective helps to successfully determine appropriate niche
innovations considering overall landscape and internal drivers

68. Source: according to Geels 2005 134Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Selected literature
Geels, F. W. (2002). ‘Technological transitions as evolutionary configuration processes: A multi-level perspective and a case-
study’. Research policy, 31(8/9), 1257-1274. DOI: 10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8
Geels, Frank W. (2004). ‘From Sectoral Systems of Innovation to Socio-Technical Systems: Insights about Dynamics and
Change from Sociology and Institutional Theory’. Research Policy 33 (6–7): 897–920. doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2004.01.015.
Geels, Frank W., and Johan Schot. (2007). ‘Typology of Sociotechnical Transition Pathways’. Research Policy 36 (3): 399–
417. doi:10.1016/j.respol.2007.01.003.
Geels, F. W., Sovacool, B. K., Schwanen, T., & Sorrell, S. (2017). ‘Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization’.
Science, 357(6357), 1242-1244.
Halbe, J., Reusser, D. E., Holtz, G., Haasnoot, M., Stosius, A., Avenhaus, W., & Kwakkel, J. H. (2015). ‘Lessons for model
use in transition research: a survey and comparison with other research areas’. Environmental Innovation and Societal
Transitions, 15, 194-210.
Holtz, G.; Brugnach, M.; Pahl-Wostl, C. (2008). ‘Specifying ‘regime’ — A framework for defining and describing regimes in
transition research’. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75(5) 623–643. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2007.02.010.
Holtz, G. (2011). ‘Modelling transitions: An appraisal of experiences and suggestions for research’. Environmental Innovation
and Societal Transitions, 1(2), 167-186.
Holtz, G. (2012). ‘The PSM approach to transitions: bridging the gap between abstract frameworks and tangible entities’.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79, 734-743.
Holtz, G., Alkemade, F., de Haan, F., Köhler, J., Trutnevyte, E., Luthe, T., ... & Ruutu, S. (2015). ‘Prospects of modelling
societal transitions: Position paper of an emerging community’. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 17, 41-58.

69. Multi-Level Perspective helps to successfully determine
appropriate niche innovations considering overall landscape
and internal drivers
Socio-
technical
landscape
Socio-
technical
Regime
Niche
innovations
Existing
Energy
system
Conventional / fossil
Future
Energy
system
Renewable
135Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

70. 136Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
What is a socio-technical regime?
Source: Geels 2004
! Actors, technologies and rules are linked across sub-regimes (e.g. search
heuristics of engineers influenced by user preferences and regulatory standards)
! Socio-cultural regime influenced by technology (e.g. smart-phones)
! Policy regime follows / takes up socio-cultural trends
Socio-
technical
regime
User and
market regime
Socio-cultural
regime
Policy regime
Technological
regime
Science

71. Multi-Level Perspective helps to successfully determine
appropriate niche innovations considering overall landscape
and internal drivers
Socio-
technical
landscape
Socio-
technical
Regime
Niche
innovations
Existing
Energy
system
Conventional / fossil
Future
Energy
system
Renewable
Macro-economic
Political
Security
Legal / regulatory
Demographic situation
Energy prices
Subsidies
Demand growth
137Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Socio-technical
landscape
The socio-technical
landscape consists out of
external and unexpected
factors that can usually not
be influenced by
stakeholders from politics,
business, and society in
short term

72. Multi-Level Perspective helps to successfully determine
appropriate niche innovations considering overall landscape
and internal drivers
Socio-
technical
landscape
Socio-
technical
Regime
Niche
innovations
Existing
Energy
system
Conventional / fossil
Future
Energy
system
Renewable
Macro-economic
Political
Security
Legal / regulatory
Demographic situation
Energy prices
Subsidies
Demand growth
Cost
decrease
Wind
Solar
Techn.
Environ.
advocacy
groups
Techn.
learning
Industry
networks
Pilot
projects
Institut-
ions
138Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Niche
innovations
include developments
that are pro-active
initiated by stakeholders
from politics, business,
and society

73. Multi-Level Perspective helps to successfully determine
appropriate niche innovations considering overall landscape
and internal drivers
Socio-
technical
landscape
Socio-
technical
Regime
Niche
innovations
Existing
Energy
system
Conventional / fossil
Future
Energy
system
Renewable
Macro-economic
Political
Security
Legal / regulatory
Demographic situation
Energy prices
Subsidies
Demand growth
Cost
decrease
Wind
Solar
Techn.
Environ.
advocacy
groups
Techn.
learning
Industry
networks
Pilot
projects
Institut-
ions
• Elements become aligned
• Internal momentum increases
• New configuration breaks through
139Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Transformation
process
With increasing intensity at
the landscape and niche
innovation level tensions on
the incumbent energy system
increases and lead to
adjustments over time (new
energy system)

74. Change of socio-technical regime requires system innovations
Infrastructures)
Technological)
Innova-ons)
Social)Innova-ons)
• Building)infrastructures)
• Energy)infrastructures)
• Industry)infrastructures)
• Traffic)infrastructures)
• Supply)and)disposal))
)))))))infrastructures)
• IT)infrastructures)
• ...)
! Technological)product)and)
process)innova-ons)
• New)social)prac-ces,)u-liza-on)
pa?erns)and)business)models))
• New)organiza-onal)and)
par-cipatory)models))
• New)ins-tu-ons/regula-ons)
• New)structures)of)meaning)
System)Innova-ons)
140Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Definition
System innovations are technological innovations in the right institutional, political, cultural
and social framework
!

75. Change of socio-technical regime requires system innovations
Infrastructures)
Technological)
Innova-ons)
Social)Innova-ons)
System)Innova-ons)
141Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Definition
System innovations are technological innovations in the right institutional, political, cultural
and social framework
!
Smart Grid Solutions
Changes in
consumption
behaviour,
feed in
regulation,
etc.
PV + storage
(Smart Home)

76. 142Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
1. With the Multi-Level Perspective an approach exists to understand
relations between niche innovations, developments at the socio-
technical landscape and internal regime drivers
a. Developments at the socio-technical landscape put pressure on
the existing energy regime and create windows of opportunities
b. Stabilized niche innovations are taking advantages of the created
windows of opportunities
c. The resulting new energy system influences the socio-technical
landscape (adjustments occur)
2. With the MLP approach an illustrative instrument exists, but no
guideline for application (steering of transitions) is provided
3. Changes of the socio-technical regime requires system innovations
that includes technological and social innovations in combination with
infrastructures
Conclusion

77. Any questions so far?
143Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

78. Energy market transition
phase model
Identification of transition
phases to understand
drivers and barriers for
achieving next
144Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
5.

79. 145Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Content
! Illustration of transitions as a non-
linear process
! Identification of different phases of the
transition process
! Introduction of a transition phase
model
What’s the objective of
the transition pathway?
What are characteristics
of the process?
How to derive a road
map?

80. System innovation and transitions
Transitions as a non-linear change that have to prevent lock-in effects
Source: van der Brugge & de Haan (2005) 146Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

81. The different stages of a complex transformation process
Pre-development:
- Status quo persists
- First stakeholder
networks
- Application in
niches
- …
Indicator of system change
time
Pre-development
Take-off
Acceleration
Stabilization
147Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

82. Pre-development:
- Status quo persists
- First stakeholder
networks
- Application in
niches
- …
Indicator of system change
time
Pre-development
Take-off
Acceleration
Stabilization
Take-off:
- First changes
become visible
- Transformations-
impulses are taken
over by the
existing regime
- …
148Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
The different stages of a complex transformation process

83. Pre-development:
- Status quo persists
- First stakeholder
networks
- Application in
niches
- …
Indicator of system change
time
Pre-development
Take-off
Acceleration
Stabilization
Take-off:
- First changes
become visible
- Transformations-
impulses are taken
over by the
existing regime
- …
Acceleration:
- Changes in
structures take
place
- Stakeholders take
over changes
- Establishing of
institutions
- …
149Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
The different stages of a complex transformation process

84. Pre-development:
- Status quo persists
- First stakeholder
networks
- Application in
niches
- …
Indicator of system change
time
Pre-development
Take-off
Acceleration
Stabilization
Take-off:
- First changes
become visible
- Transformations-
impulses are taken
over by the
existing regime
- …
Acceleration:
- Changes in
structures take
place
- Stakeholders take
over changes
- Establishing of
institutions
- …
Stabilization:
- Decreasing
dynamics
- New system status
stabilizes
- …
150Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
The different stages of a complex transformation process

85. Indicator of system change
time
Barriers
Drivers
Drivers:
- Innovations / pilot
projects
- Decreasing costs of
renewable energies
- Incentives
- Improving investment
conditions
- ...
Barriers:
- Low costs of fossil fuels
- Energy subsidization
- Interests of conventional
energy systems /
stakeholders
- Missing adaption of
trends in industry
- Competing innovations
further energy
technologies (e.g. shale
gas)
- ....
151Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
The different stages of a complex transformation process

86. Electricity
25%
Electricity
4.5%
Electricity
100%
1990*
Shareofrenewableenergies
Total
1.3%
Total
100%
Sector coupling - supply
structure completely based on
RE – power to X as important
enabling option
Market
introduction
and experience
gaining
System integration
and continuing supporting
market dynamic of RE and
energy efficiency as second
strategic pillar
RE import - due to limited national
potentials - import of RE electricity or
RE based synthetic fuels
Total
11%
2013*
Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV
time
152Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
15
Kriterien für die Standortwahl.
Verfügbarkeit einer erneuerbaren Strom-
quelle (Menge und Angebotscharakteris-
tik). Zusätzlich wird auch das Stromnetz
maximal entlastet, wenn die Elektroly-
seureinderNähedererneuerbarenStrom-
erzeuger stehen. Gleichwohl kann aus
Gründen der Kostenoptimierung die Ins-
tallation größerer Elektrolyseure an zen-
tralen Stromnetzknoten sinnvoll sein.
Absatz- und Vertriebsmöglichkeiten für
Wasserstoff bzw. Methan
Wasserstoffaufnahmekapazität des Gas-
netzes bei direkter Einspeisung von H2.
Für Elektrolyseure ist ein Standort mit
einem ganzjährig kontinuierlich hohen
e f f i z i e n z e n t s c h e i d e t .
Gasdurchfluss im Erdgasnetz von Vorteil,
da hier größere Mengen Wasserstoff
eingespeist werden können.
Für große Wasserelektrolyseure mit nach-
geschalteter Methanisierung ist die räum-
liche Nähe zu Gasspeichern ein wichtiger
Standortfaktor, wenn die Transportkapa-
zitäten nicht ausreichen.
Für die Methanisierung ist eine Kohlen-
dioxidquelle notwendig.
Wirtschaftliche Absatzmöglichkeiten
für die Nebenprodukte Wärme und
Sauerstoff steigern zusätzlich den ener-
getischen Nutzungsgrad und die Wirt-
schaftlichkeit.
Standortwahl.
Die Standortwahl hat maßgeblichen Ein-
fluss auf die Kosten einer Power-to-Gas-
Anlage. Die Auswahl des Standorts richtet
sich nach dem Geschäftsmodell der ge-
planten Anlage. Dabei muss sich die Wahl
an den Gegebenheiten sowohl im Strom-
als auch im Gasnetz orientieren. So ist
zum Beispiel für die Methanisierung die
räumliche Nähe zu einer Kohlendioxid-
quelle von Vorteil.
H2
H2
H2
CO2
CH4
CH4
H2
O2
CO2
Standortfaktoren Power to Gas
Power-to-Gas-Anlage
Industrieanlage/Raffinerie H2-Tankstelle
Strom aus
erneuerbaren
Energien
Gasnetz
H2- und
Erdgasspeicher
Strom
Biogasanlage
Source:DENA2013
*numbers for
Germany (example)
Electricity
30%
Total
13%
2015*
Application of the Energy System Transition Phase Model
Progress and transitions among different phases in the case of
Germany

87. Phase 1: Market Introduction
Examples for illustration
153Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

88. Phase 1: Market Introduction
Two different dynamics: Renewable energy shares of final and primary
energy demand and electricity in Germany (in %)
154Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
PART I: RENEWABLE ENERGY IN GERMANY8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001990
Figure 4: Renewable energy shares of final and primary energy consumption in Germany
in percent
1 calculation of the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption without using special calculation rules set out in EU Directive 2009/28/EC
See Annex, section 1 for details on how the share was calculated
2 declining share in primary energy consumption caused by a methodological change starting with the year 2012, previous years not yet revised
Sources: BMWi based on AGEE-Stat; ZSW; EEFA; AGEB [1], [2]; Eurostat [3] and other sources; see following figures
Renewable energies' share of PEC2
Renewable energies' share of GFEC1
2.0
1.3
3.7
2.9
4.0
2.9
4.4
3.2
5.8
3.8
6.3
4.5
7.2
5.3
8.1
6.3
9.7
7.9
9.1
8.0
10.9
9.910.1
8.9
11.8
10.8
12.8
10.3
13.2
10.8
13.5
11.3
Source: Renewable Energies in Numbers 2016
Electricity
Final and primary energy
27,4%!

89. Phase 1: Shaping an appropriate policy regime
Kick start of market deployment via providing attractive investment
atmosphere and R&D support
155Wuppertal)Ins-tut) Source:!BMWi!2016!!
Implementation of
Renewable Energy Law
(Feed in tariff system)
Success factors e.g.:
- Secure investment conditions
- Transparent tariffs
- Neutral access to grid

90. 156Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 1: Shaping an appropriate policy regime
Technology progress: continuously increase of average power of
installed wind mills
22.11.16 17:26PDF.js viewer
Source: Liersch 2011
Capacity)(in)kW))
Rotor)diameter)(in)m))
Rotor)sweep)(in)m))
Hub)high)(in)m))
Annual)electricity)output)(in)MWh))

91. 157Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 2: System integration of
renewable energies
Examples for illustration

92. 158Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 2: System integration of renewable energies
So far system an grid stability and reliability could be secured in Germany -
System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAID)1 in even shrinking
Grid stability with growing amounts of fluctuating R
Grid in Germany today more stable than in 2006!
Source: BMWi 2015
1„System Average Interruption Duration Index“ (SAIDI) describes the cumulative annual average blackout time for customers
(for periods longer than three minutes). Currently system stability level in comparison to other countries is extremely high.
Share of green power in %
Outage of power grid in minutes
(SAIDI)
Exemplary illustration for growing
energy security

93. 159Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 2: Start to think in broader systems (provide system
solutions)
Smart combination of renewable energies and energy efficiency measures (e.g.
virtual power plants, smart homes) - make use of smart ICT options
Source: Hao Bai et al 2016

94. 160Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 3: Sector coupling
(electrification)
Examples for illustration

95. 161Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 3: Application of electricity becomes more and more
important
Sector coupling as a main strategy element for more ambitious GHG
mitigation results in end-use sectors
Electricity
Heating
Cooling
Gas
Mobility
Natural gas
vehicles
electric heat pumps
Co-/trigeneration
electro
mobility
Fuel cell vehicles
Power to gas
Power to chemicals
Biogas
facilities
Vehicle
to grid
Power to Heat
Co-/trigeneration
Source: Sauer 2015

96. 162Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 3: Application of electricity becomes more and more important
Development of number of electric vehicles in Germany
Significant increase in number of electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids und hydrogen1 driven fuel
cell vehicles depending as result of GHG mitigation pressure in end-use sectors
1 Provision of hydrogen via electrolysis
only battery electric vehicles but also plug-in
hybrid vehicles and hydrogen-powered fuel cell
vehicles. While negligible in 2010, the scenarios
expect the number of electric cars to reach 6
million to 10 million by 2030, reaching or ex-
ceeding the government’s current target of 6
million electric vehicles by 2030. By 2050, this
Even though there is no need for imitating reg-
ulations and attitudes that foster the Califor-
nian market, there needs to be a framework that
sufficiently promotes the introduction of new
carbon-neutral propulsion systems. Ambitious
EU fleet fuel-economy standards would be con-
ducive in this regard.
Government Target Scenario
90% GHG Reduction Scenario
Government target
Government Target Scenario
90% GHG Reduction Scenario
14%
31%
53%
0%
2%
24%
58%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cars in stock (in million)
Figure 20: Number of electric passenger vehicles in stock (including hydrogen-fueled vehicles, left axis)
and their share in total passenger vehicles (in %, right axis)
Sources: Own figure
based on Schlesinger et al. 2014,
Repenning et al. 2014, NPE 2014
19 The third scenario analyzed (the “Renewable Electrification Scenario”) does not provide information about the
number of electric passenger vehicles.

97. 163Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 3: Phase relevant for step by step market introduction of
PtX-products - synthetic gases, fuels and feedstock based on RE
electricity
Basic principles of Power to X (various opportunities)
The renewably derived methane produced in this way is almost e actly the same uality as fossil gas.
The e isting natural gas grid infrastructure could be used without restriction. There is no need to ad-
apt the system or to increase safety provisions.
Figure B-11: Diagram showing the methanation process and its integration into the energy
system57
Electricity
network
Natural gas
network
Wind
Solar
Other
renwables
CHP,
Turbines
Power generation
Power storagae
- Fossil fuels
- Biomass, Waste
- Atmosphere
CO2
CO2
H2
O2
H2
O
Electrolysis,
H2
-Tank
CO2
-Tank
Methanation
CH4
H2
O
Renewables Power Methane
Plant
Windmethane
Solarmethane
Gas storage
- for heat
- for transport

98. 164Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 3: Long-term storage needed if share of renewable
energies exceeds 65%
Regarding the time axis that corresponds with the time frame where storable PtX-
products are necessary to start full decarbonisation of end-use sectors
Due to a broad spectrum of flexibility options large-scale (energy) storage is
inevitable only above a specific share of renewable energies in the system
urrence of renewable
gions and to transfer
here it is needed.
wer plants can be op-
deficits that remain
e electricity produc-
d hence facilitate the
from renewable en-
o provide flexibility,
nfigurations of a de-
tem, they will need
in order to maintain
art in the transforma-
e electricity demand,
and, it is also possible
and to times of high
his measure is called
nt (DSM).
ption of great impor-
y in times of produc-
t in times of deficits.
ewables in electricity
ty markets will need
ncentivize the use of
ns. At the same time,
that any changes are likely to influence different
components of the system. System changes thus
require careful implementation.
In the following we will discuss the use of stor-
age technologies in more detail to indicate the
complexity of the transformation of the electricity
system. Figure 18 shows schematically the devel-
opment of storage demand as the share of fluctu-
ating renewable electricity increases.
Figure 18: Share of renewable electricity generation and resulting storage demand.
Source: Own figure based on Adamek et al. 2012, EFZN 2013, Agora Energiewende 2014 b.
Batteries for enhanced PV
self consumption
Storage in the
distribution grid
Storages with double use
(e.g. EVs)
Storage for power quality
(instead of rotating masses)
storage
is inevitable
no storage needed,
other balancing options
are sufficient
share of renewables
100%75%50%25%0%
Synthetic
Gasoline
Hydrogen
Ammonia
Methanol
?

99. 165Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 4: RE import/export or
import/export of PtX-products
Examples for illustration

100. 166Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 4: Full decarbonisation of end-use sectors through use of
PtX options?
Supply structures must be fully based on renewable energy based electricity
RES-power as core primary supply
Final energy from direct power,
methane and fuels 1/3 each
High losses due to
conversion of electricity
into 1) hydrogen and 2)
methane or fuels
Source: UBA 2015

101. Stromverbrauch ohne weitere Sektorkopplung 600 19,2 %
Raumwärme und Warmwasser 770 24,7 %
Industrieprozesswärme von Industrie und GHD 530 17,0 %
Verkehr 700 22,4 %
Speicher- und Übertragungsverluste im Stromsektor 520 16,7 %
Summe 3120 100 %
Bild 13 Entwicklung des Strombedarfs für eine klimaneutrale Energieversorgung ohne Effizienz-
maßnahmen
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Speicherverluste
Verkehr
Prozesswärme
Raumwärme/WW
Stomverbrauch
TWh
167Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 4: Full decarbonisation of end-use sectors through use of
PtX options?
Supply structures must be fully based on renewable energy based electricity
Full decarbonization in Germany would lead to an extremely high electricity demand –
without energy efficiency offensive 3,000 TWh might be needed (cf. circa 600 TWh in
2015)
Source: Quaschning 2016
Electricitydemand
Storage!losses!!
Traffic!
Process!heat!
HeaXng!(Building)!
Power!ConsumpXon!

102. 168Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Phase 4: Future potentials for regions with outstanding
conditions for producing renewable electricity
Using RE in regions with very high potentials could result in benefits for both (Win-Win-
Situation), but needs a comprehensive assessment of social and economic benefits of
large-scale infrastructures (including environmental impacts such as water demand)

103. Summary of different phases of a complex transformation
process
Phase 1 „Market
Introduction“
Phase 2 „system
integration“
Phase 3 „Sector coup-
ling (electrification)“
Phase 4
„EE-Import“
CO2-reduction
∼ 0-20%
CO2-reduction
∼ 20-50%
CO2-reduction
∼ 50-75%
CO2-reduction
∼ 75-100 %
" Development and
introduction of basic
technologies (resp.
adapted options)
" Trigger significant
cost reductions
based on learning
curves
" Deployment asso-
ciated without signi-
ficant implications
on the system
structure
" Identification and
management of
system integration
needs (grid exten-
sion, short-term
storage,...)
" Demand Side
Management
" Continuous public
support of market
deployment
" System solutions
(RE and efficiency)
" Management of
increasing negative
residual load
situations
" Use of full portfolio
of flexibility options
is needed
" Generation of
electricity based
fuels and gases/
chemical feedstock
(sector coupling)
" Complete
displacement of
fossil resources in
all sectors (incl.
end-use sectors)
" Import of renewable
energy based
electricity or
electricity products
(fuels, gas,
chemical feedstock
e.g. from MENA)
" In parallel: continuous increase of energy efficiency in all areas, e.g.
# Improvement of insulation in building stock
# Reduction of electricity demand in traditional fields of application
(e.g. lighting, pumping, traction)
" Continuous extension of share of electricity in final energy mix (electrification)
169Wuppertal)Ins-tut)

104. 202Wuppertal)Ins-tut)
Contribution by the Wuppertal Institute for the Development of Higher Education Teaching Modules on the
socio-economic Impacts of the Renewable Energy Implementation (DESIRE)
Chapter 1, 3-6 prepared by Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Dr. Thomas Fink, Sarra Amroune Wuppertal Institute
Chapter 2 prepared by Dr. Louy Qoaider and Haneen Saadeh, German Jordanian University (GJU)
Thank)you)very)much)for)your)a?en-on!)
)
thomas.fink@wupperinst.org))