Using Foresight to predict and preempt multiple security-related crisis expected in the 2nd decade of the new millennium

1. Emerging Threats: Creation of a
Regional Foresight Matrix
International Industrial Security Seminar, July 25-26, 2011. Venue: G Hotel, Penang, Malaysia
By Mathew Maavak
mathew@maavak.net

2. Section 1: Causative Factors to Emerging Threats
Section 2: Introducing Security Foresight
Section 3: Creation of a Regional Foresight Matrix

3. Section 1: Causative Factors to Emerging Threats

4. Emerging Threats – Understanding Basic Human Needs (Maslow’s Hirearchy)
Any disruption to “physiological” and “safety” needs at the bottom rungs of Maslow’s Hierarchy will disrupt social order,
creating enough street-by-street mayhem and thereby incapacitate so-called higher chain of activities. After all, a society is
only 9 meals (3 days) away from anarchy.
Notice that
“safety” means
“security” and it
lies at the
penultimate Self Actualization
foundation of
Maslow’s
Hierarchy. Esteem
“Safety” underpins
higher forms of
Love/belonging
human activity.
What if safety was
removed? Safety
Physiological
Source: Wikipedia

5. What are the emerging threats?
Is it this?
Great
Depression?
Riots Drought
Epidemic
Famine

6. Or is it this?

7. The answer is both! Remember….
Terrorism, revolutions and other human evils are the spawns of hopelessness; they are the culminations of
social breakdowns.

8. The Grim Stats
• Our global society is undergoing multiple interconnected crises. These are converging to affect our societies, our
industries and ourselves. The future of the security industry lies not in combating terrorism or militant activities
per se but in anticipating the rage – and its fallouts – of an increasingly demoralized population. These are due
to:
• 1) Rising unemployment /hyperinflation/ homelessness
• 2) Deteriorating food security
• 3) Deteriorating primary health care
• 4) Corruption, nepotism, cronyism and autocracy.
(incidentally the four grouses succinctly captured on a Cairo placard)
• 5) Ascendency of regional criminal syndicates/militant networks
• 6) Rise in the number of failed/failing states
• 7) Disastrous Capital Flight from failed/failing states.
• 8) Failure of Western laissez-faire capitalist ideology
More Stats
There were 925 million people living in hunger in 2010. That’s 1/7 of humanity. [1] This figure will get worse this
year, and aggravate further next year.
There are close to 2 billion people who are either unemployed or poorly employed, representing youths or the most
productive working-age segment. [2] For the first time ever, a significant proportion of them will be educated.
Our society is now a fertile ground for every conceivable anti-social activity, and emerging threats will be highly
asymmetric vis-a-vis traditional notions of “security”

9. The Stark Reality
In 2007, The UK’s Ministry of Defence has predicted a global middle class revolt by 2040. [3] This may
prove extremely sanguine as we are already living through some of the MOD’s distant projections. The
March 2011 London riots is a precocious manifestation of a growing middle class rage.
Project Horizon, which was recently conceived and led by the US State Department, brought together USG
national security and global affairs agencies for a joint, scenario-based strategic planning based on
alternative scenarios at the year 2025
Guess where does terrorism stand in this strategic calculus? (See next slide)

10. Project Horizon – Forces for Change
Most frequently mentioned forces for change expected to drive the
landscape of challenges and opportunities through 2025
1. Global Interdependence 9. Advances in Science and
Technology
2. Science & (S&T)
Competition 10. Globalization, Poverty, and
3. China and India Development
4. Natural 11. Demographics
Resources/Energy
12. Religion
5. Global Perceptions of
the U.S. 13. Sovereignty and the Role of
the Nation-state
6. Changes in Military
Power 14. Terrorism
7. Environmental Change 15. Interagency Issues
8. Global Health and
Disease Source: US State Department

11. Is there a method to anticipate emerging threats?
Yes, it’s called Foresight.
Foresight entails:
Futures (forecasting, forward thinking etc)
Planning (strategic analysis, priority setting etc), and
Networking (participatory, dialogic etc) tools and orientations.*
Security firms and professionals who fail to anticipate emerging trends will be reduced to being sub-vendors
in a future security landscape.
A new Maslow’s Hierarchy (of sorts) will emerge, where super generalists will dictate workload to the
super specialists! In other words, security firms that apply Foresight will beat specialist security
professionals to the clientele race and sub-contract relevant skills and hardware sourcing to all of you here.
Foresight should therefore be central to your business and operations models.

12. Section 2: Introducing Security Foresight

13. Case study 1: Indonesia nabs 16 in a plot to mass poison policemen with cyanide – June 14, 2011
This is a new model of terror attack” - Indonesian police.
Do we react like this?

14. Or do we Anticipate in Advance?
Do we want to be forewarned and forearmed, or do we react to threats as they emerge?

15. SECURITY FORESIGHT
Security Foresight tracks multiple trends – beyond the scope of one’s professional gamut or training – and
apply the subsequent collated data into a more integrated scenario planning structure. It follows these
simple steps:
Drug, weapons Working with relevant
trafficking? Authorities/ Clientele
Horizon Foresight
Project Execution
Scanning (with Delphic Supervision)
News, information, Chemical Threat Applying Threat
trends, networking Elimination? Elimination Solutions
Foresight avoids the cat and mouse modus operandi
For instance: If the cyanide threat is eliminated, then terrorists might try botulinum toxin. If this is in turn is
eliminated, then terrorists might import poison dart frogs from the Dendrobatidae family, and use an exotic
restaurant as a ruse. Now, if that fails, then mushroom delicacies could be tried. Ricin?
“Ricin is a plant toxin that is 30 times more potent than the nerve agent VX
by weight and is readily obtainable by extraction from common castor beans.” *4+
Despite this, more than 1 million tonnes of castor beans are processed each year,
and approximately 5% of the total is rendered into a waste containing high
concentrations of ricin toxin. [5] Isn’t Ricin a more cost-
Castor beans

16. Do we want to play catch up in the toxic threat area alone? What about the weapons, nuclear material,
human and drug trafficking areas? Without proper foresight, incoming information would be simply
overwhelming.
Where Poor Foresight Leads:
Rising food prices were the cause of the ongoing Arab
Revolt today. The Arab leaders were looking for threats
elsewhere. Their strategic intelligence apparatus failed.
Failure to anticipate unconventional weaponry led to 9/11. It was a systemic failure of
the US strategic intelligence apparatus.
Failure to anticipate economic consequences today have led to a mushrooming or resurrection
of terrorist organizations worldwide, including in Northern Ireland.
Failure to anticipate socio-economic undercurrents have led to a regional Naxalite (Maoist)
insurgency across eastern India, costing billions to the Indian economy. Up to ¼ of the Indian
land mass is either Naxal-controlled, troubled or infiltrated.
Failure to regard wildlife trafficking as a serious security threat may result in new modes of
terror attacks i.e. improvised mass ricin poisoning, emanating from the same trafficking
networks.

17. Show me a demonstration of “Security Foresight”!!!!
Why Not? Let’s conduct a brief foresight study on “Improvised
Mass Ricin Poisoning” in Country X (an Asean nation). The
following slide was extemporaneously prepared within
minutes. Tell me what I had missed?

18. Case Study 2 Not at all. The beans
Not at all. are edible and legal. A
Extremely shipment of castor
difficult at best Controlled
item? beans will not raise
for use as a eyebrows
mass weapon
Can it be
easily
weaponized? Castor Beans
endemic to
the region?
Better! It can
Mass be grown in
your tiny
Ricin balcony [6]
Threat
There may be a way to Surreptitious
The big synthesis lethal ricin extraction of
imponderable derivatives for a viable Ricin?
bio-weapon
How about Castor Bean
Ricin processing
Combine Combine plants?
derivatives?
Possibilities Possibilities Laboratories?

19. The “Next Next Step”
Combine the possibilities of castor bean processing centres/ ricin extraction labs with that of
ricin derivative experimentations.
Key Routes
Access all published journals on highly toxic Ricin derivatives
Study all methods of synthesizing such derivatives
Does Ricin potentiate with other compounds to act as a toxic force multiplier?
Can Ricin be extracted from lab kits that could fit into a kitchen?
Should we monitor castor bean processing plants?
And so on….
Wait a minute! Forget about hypothetical futures. Who would likely use Ricin in its raw form as a targeted
assassination tool? Who has access to them? It is a Schedule 1 controlled substance
under both the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention and the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention.
Endless Possibilities
A post-grad biochemistry researcher today and an unemployed anarchist tomorrow?

20. Foresight brings order and structure to tackling the
possibles, probables and the imponderables. It even
opens up avenues of enquiry and resolution for the
outright unthinkable!

21. Case Study 3: Operation Slambay
Now let’s put our special forces thinking caps and conduct a brief
foresight study a la a Red Team Exercise. Our objective is to
attack a hypothetical coastal financial hub in a foreign land,
called Slambay. Let us assume all of us here have been trained in
the art of close quarter combat and subversion.
Mission Objective
1) To create a maximal reign of terror in
shortest time period with minimal
arms/logistics/personnel…in a way
suicide bombings and insurgencies CAN
NOT.
2) To inflict financial damage and enduring
loss of investor confidence worth
hundreds billions over long the term.
3) To teach those Slambattis a lesson.

22. Order of Battle:
Weapons
Weapons should fit
1 duffel
bag and 1
knapsack
Fit one Uzi & pistol
each, bullets,
bombs & grenades No one
Airport,
speaks
Land route
Slambatti
ruled out Decoy Decoy
bombs bombs
Pose as Career No problem.
Manner of
Infiltration
Sea route
preferred
fishermen
or yacht Slambay legends
assigned
We pose as
tourists
Stealth
yuppies?
Decoy Decoy
Submarines bombs bombs
Out. Attracts Cameras We stand
Naval ready out in
attention Bonus: Targets appearance
in close
proximity. Not
well guarded
Intel
Provided
Target Layouts High
Provided
Profile
Targets

23. From the slide above, it can be deduced that:
1) Seaborne route is ideal for infiltration.
2) Lugging weapons into the city should not be a problem
3) Posing as tourists/backpackers provides an ideal cover
4) The main targets were in close proximity to each other.
5) Exfiltration was the only scenario not covered.
6) One of the main objectives was to dent Slambay’s
reputation as an investment hub, and inflict losses worth tens of billions over the years.
(Otherwise, they could have just planted bombs and exited)
This is pretty much what happened to Mumbai on Nov 26th, 2008. No private or public agency
was ever on record to have gamed out this scenario to the Indian authorities.
For a historical parallel, the guns in Singapore were trained the wrong way when the Japanese
landed across Johor.
Future threats to cities, industries and society will be asymmetric. The objectives will differ from
current conventions. But aren’t there a host of security firms that provides strategic
information?
Yes and No. The first slide in Section 3 briefly outlines the usual focus areas of “threat analysis
centres.”

24. Section 3: Creation of a Regional Foresight Matrix

25. Conventional Threat Inadequate for
Analysis Centres: anticipatory planning.
Expanded
Failed Areas Networking Virtually non-
Public existent
Socio-
Input/
Economic
Horizon
Analysis
Scanning
Conducted
in silos Monocular
rather than
Threat Panoramic
Anticipatory
Perception
Planning Threat Focus
Analysis Lacking ability to
Centre connect the dots
Intelligence Data Not
Analysis Comprehensive
Enough
Expertise,
Informant Hardware
Red = Failed
Network and Yellow = Inadequate
Logistics Green = Existing

26. Can Security Foresight match a gargantuan effort like this one? This is just one portion of a
comprehensive “track and pre-empt” counter-terrror complex developed by US Intelligence services.
It was built upon FORESIGHT!!
Source: Wikipedia.

27. The Future can be fairly predicted
The US Information Awareness Office (IAO) once ran a project called Futures Markets
Applied to Prediction (FutureMAP). FutureMap effectively allowed people to bet on
when a terrorist attack would occur. “The bookie would have been the federal
government.”*7+ Another demonstration of the power of FORESIGHT!!
Source: www.iwar.org.uk
Can we run a scaled-down version of FutureMAP that will not entail much cost and personnel? One that
will meet our security foresight needs? The Answer is an absolute Yes.

28. Prerequisites of a Security Foresight Centre
Intelligence Intelligence Intelligence
Networks Processing Actualization
Mass Media Security Solutions
Database Building and
Formulated in Advance via
Maintenance
Foresight Projects
NGOs
Simultaneously
Specialized Security Pre-empting Security
Expertise Horizon Scanning
Threats
Academia
Strategic Analysis/ Expert
Native Law Enforcement Regional Security Solutions
Input (Delphi)
Industry/ Guild Sources
Topical Foresight Projects Public Service Projects
Think Tanks

29. Capabilities Check
Intelligence Networks
All of you seated here and beyond can provide the Intelligence Networks needed for a comprehensive security foresight
matrix for little or no cost. Being involved in the Intelligence Networks phase will also expand your businesses outreach
rather organically.
Intelligence Processing
Would a central hub be needed, along with a small team of nimble analysts and a dedicated office, or can it be decentralized
among stakeholders within a regional foresight matrix? It can be either; a SWOT-type analyses should be conducted to
determine feasibility. A decentralized hub obviates funding and office space.
However, one crucial element in any undertaking of this kind is the need for Super Generalists
i.e. the type of personnel who can connect the dots across a wide variety of fields (from history to
socio-economics to terrorism). Super-generalists also cut costs as they can conduct various foresight
projects that will be demanded by emerging realities and by client demands.
Intelligence Actualization
This will be a culmination of various foresight projects undertaken for the security industry, defence establishments and
national law enforcement apparatus .When all hell breaks loose, there will be solutions ready. On a regional
basis!!!
Public Service Projects
This is akin to Public Diplomacy on a corporate scale. Examples include security newswires
(for public, professional and traveller convenience etc), CSR-type lectures/ demonstrations at schools
and online crime prevention techniques for crime-prone neighbourhoods. It will be a natural by-product
of a security foresight exercise.

30. Security Foresight streamlines disparate threats into a proper matrix
Vietnam Singapore
Thailand
Brunei
Can we track them all? Better yet, can we pre-empt them?
Indonesia
Malaysia Pan-Regional

31. Southeast Asian Security Foresight Centre (SEAS-FC) – A Conceptual Outline
Conducted
The Hub would need 5- within/Funded
6 analysts for an entire by Industry Can this be run out of
region Foresight lobbies an Asean University or
Projects Institution. Or from
your HQ? Yes!
Strategic
Networks
Intelligence Delphi
HUB
Delphi Super
Generalists/
Analysts
Horizon
Databases
Scanning
Public
Service
(News)

32. One Nightmare Scenario
Shipments of cyanide are illicitly obtained from a Papua New Guinean gold mine. They
are then loaded aboard 2 cargo vessels, one destined for Java and the other Thailand.
They bypass regular customs.
A wave of hacking besets the region, incapacitating public utilities and normal
monitoring mechanisms. Blackouts are common. The cyanide gets introduced into food
processing plants during the attack on utilities.
Weeks later, thousands of children die after consuming a popular snack. Is this possible?
Who is the culprit? JI, Al Qaeda or a group of disgruntled anarchists a la Utøya,
Norway?
Is this possible? Will our industrial security models finally incorporate foresight?

33. Foresight projects the possibilities of tomorrow based
on the simulations of today. – Mathew Maavak
Thank You