Crop diversity and climate change

1. Adapting to Climate Change: The importance of conservation of crop diversity

2. http://www.theguardian.com/environ ment/2014/oct/31/ipcc-report-six- graphs-that-show-how-were- changing-the-worlds-climate

3. The Guardian’s 6 graphs on Climate Change

4. Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244. Luigi’s 6 graphs (+1 map) on CC and food

5. Summary of estimated impacts of observed climate changes on yields over 1960–2013 for 4 major crops in temperate and tropical regions. Source: Page 7 - IPCC. 2014. “Summary for policymakers - Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.” Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf

6. Summary of projected changes in crop yields due to climate change. Source: Page 18 - IPCC. 2014. “Summary for policymakers - Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.” Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-

7. Lobell et al., 2008. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/319/5863/607

8. Meeting the Global Food Demand of the Future by Engineering Crop Photosynthesis and Yield Potential Long, Marshall-Colon, Xin-Guang Zhu (2016) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2015.03.019

9. Rippke U, Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A, Vermeulen SJ, Parker L, Mer F, Diekkrüger B, Challinor AJ and Howden M. 2016. Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub- Saharan African agriculture. Nature Climate Change. http://agro.biodiver.se/2016/03/transforming-agriculture-in-africa/ Farmers in 60% of the current African bean area, and about 30% of that of the other crops, will need to think about some other crop at some time during the 21st century.

10. What to do? No silver bullet! But don’t panic. Lots of things that we can do...

11. technological innovations to generate weather dataForecasting From satellite to cell phone Risk insurance Rapid payments so assets are protected Productive social safety nets Build assets, protect from extremes That cope with extremes Technologies and practices ClimateSmartAgriculture

12. technological innovations to generate weather data ClimateSmartAgriculture Creating diversity of land uses Changing and diversifying diets Crop diversification and “climate- smart” species and cultivars On-farm biodiversity, agroforestry, intercropping That cope with extremes Technologies and practices

13. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/344712/icode/ Actually better to make sure agriculture as a whole is part of climate change adaptation!

14. New varieties in farmers’ fields Breeding Crop diversity Seed systems Genebanks Increased yields, resilience etc. Adaptation to climate change Food and nutritional security

15. Indicative activities • Prioritize species, varieties, breeds and populations (including useful wild relatives) for conservation on the basis of climate change expectations... • Collect information on distribution and frequency of priority species, crop varieties, animal breeds and forestry and fish populations... • Develop and implement crop, animal, tree or fish species improvement programmes to provide materials adapted to climate... • Provide long-term support for evaluation and use of wild relatives. • Improve GRFA information systems and access to them.

16. Crop Wild Relatives Svalbard, Norway 78° North, 15°East a) rice (Oryza sativa); b) Oryza longistaminata—drought tolerance; c) Oryza coarctata—tolerance to salinity d) barley (Hordeum vulgare); e) Hordeum spontaneum—drought tolerance) f) Hordeum bulbosum—disease resistance, drought, salt, and frost tolerance g) chickpea (Cicer arietinum); h) Cicer reticulatum—drought and heat tolerance; i) Cicer echinospermum—drought and heat tolerance j) sunflower (Helianthus annuus); k) Helianthus paradoxus—tolerance to salinity; l) Helianthus argophyllus—tolerance to drought

17. Pool Potential Confirmed Primary 314 268 Secondary 690 531 Tertiary 702 391 1B 18 1 2 31 4 3 26 5 4 27 5 Not in pool 165 204 "Crop Taxa" (Crop itself) 44 22 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Confirmed Potential Class Potential Confirmed Total Abiotic Stress 497 108 605 Agronomic Trait 52 332 384 Biotic Stress 1331 656 1987 Fertility Trait 11 214 225 Morphological Trait 7 12 19 Phenological Trait 12 38 50 Quality Trait 107 72 179 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Confirmed Potential

18. Pool Potential Confirmed Abiotic Stress Agronomic Trait Biotic Stress Fertility Trait Morphological Trait Phenological Trait Quality Trait Primary 314 268 108 83 302 31 7 13 38 Secondary 690 531 264 122 698 62 5 13 57 Tertiary 702 391 164 69 692 95 5 16 53 1B 18 1 0 1 14 0 0 0 4 2 31 4 1 5 27 0 0 1 1 3 26 5 11 1 12 4 0 1 2 4 27 5 8 1 19 3 0 0 1 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Quality Trait Phenological Trait Morphological Trait Fertility Trait Biotic Stress Agronomic Trait Abiotic Stress Primary Abiotic Stress Agronomic Trait Biotic Stress Fertility Trait Morphological Trait Phenological Trait Quality Trait Secondary Abiotic Stress Agronomic Trait Biotic Stress Fertility Trait Morphological Trait Phenological Trait Quality Trait Tertiary Abiotic Stress Agronomic Trait Biotic Stress Fertility Trait Morphological Trait Phenological Trait Quality Trait

19. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Quality Trait Phenological Trait Morphological Trait Fertility Trait Biotic Stress Agronomic Trait Abiotic Stress 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Confirmed Potential

20. Nora Castaneda, pers. comm.

21. CIAT

22. CWR in genebanks: How much is enough?

23. How much is enough? Density of records Density of seed collections Areas where gaps exist in ex situ collections for multiple taxa

24. Determine gaps in collections Model distributions Gather taxonomic data Gather occurrence data Make collecting recommendations Georeferencing Taxonomic Geographic Ecological How much is enough?

25. Definition of crops and crop wild relative taxa to analyze: – 81 crop genepools globally important for food security. – 1079 crop wild relative taxa (GP1 and GP2 + less closely related taxa with proven and potential uses in breeding) Vincent, H. et al. Biological Conservation. 167, 265-275 (2013)

26. Gathering and curating occurrence data from 420 data sources – Data quality check

27. Modelling the distribution of CWR – MaxEnt: modelling algorithm • 19 climatic variables – 5 x 5km resolution – Native range of each taxa Measuring 3 gap analysis metrics – Sampling Representativeness Score – Geographic Representativeness Score – Ecological Representativeness Score Identifying collecting and conservation priorities Picture credit: https://scienceasaverb.wordpress.com/2010/10/29/introduction-to- ecological-niche-modeling-environmental-niche-modeling-species-

28. http://www.cwrdiversity.org/

29. Collecting hotspots Global collecting hotspots for High Priority Taxa, for 76 crop gene pools

30. Priorities for conservation 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 High priority taxa for collection Mid priority taxa for collection Low priority taxa for collection No further collection is required No.ofCWRtaxa 71%

31. Broom millet Finger millet Quinoa Rice Maize Foxtail millet Oat Barley Foxtail millet Rye Wheat Finger millet Pearl millet Rice Sorghum Foxtail millet Pearl millet Rice Sorghum

32. Collecting and using CWR Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change • Support from Norwegian Government • $50 million, 10 years • 29 crop genepools (Annex 1) • Started in Jan 2011 • Partnership with Millennium Seed Bank, Kew • 20-25 national programs • Capacity building

33. CWR in situ 1 Research 2 Collecting 4Pre-breeding New varieties http://www.cwrdiversity.org/

34. Crop Wild Relatives Conservation

35. Pre-breeding eggplant http://eggplantprebreeding.upv.es/index.html

36. Leaf area in some wild species and hybrids is less affected by drought conditions than in domesticated types. 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 140,00 Mel Ang Mel x Ang Das Mel x Das Ins Mel x Ins Lin Mel x Lic Leafarea(cm2) Genotypes Estimated leaf area Control Drought PEG 7% * * ** *

37. https://www.genesys-pgr.org

38. Benefit Sharing Fund • 1st call (2009): 5 projects $500K • 2nd call (2011): 19 projects $5.5M • 3rd call (2014): $10M ITPGRFA & Climate Change http://www.planttreaty.org/content/where-are-we-working

39. Thank you Collecting and using CWR Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change Luigi Guarino luigi.guarino@croptrust.org Crop Trust https://www.croptrust.org/ CWR Project http://www.cwrdiversity.org/ Agricultural Biodiversity Weblog http://agro.biodiver.se/ Twitter https://twitter.com/AgroBioDiverse