This document discusses decision intelligence and how technology can help solve complex business problems through better decision making. It provides examples of different technologies that can be used for decision intelligence like predictive analytics, agent-based models, and natural language processing. The document emphasizes that decision intelligence aims to understand what data, expertise, and other assets are relevant to make decisions that help achieve desired outcomes. It also shares perspectives from industry experts on the importance of decision intelligence in today's complex world.
2. In 2009, we asked:
“If technology could solve just one problem for
you that it has never solved before, what would
it be?”
3. THE DECISION ARCHETYPE
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External Factors
Externals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Goal
Goal
Each dependency may require
various kinds of tech
4.
5.
6.
7.
8. How much should we invest in
clean, energy-efficient
manufacturing equipment, given
that we have to pay a carbon tax?
12. Traditional View
What will
be the
outcome?
What
decisions
can we
make?
Data, Analytics, Big Data,
Reports, Predictive Analytics,
Spreadsheets
13. Decision Intelligence view
What data, analytics, reports,
human expertise, and other
assets are relevant?
What
outcomes
do we
need or
want to
reach ?
What
decisions
will get us
there?
26. Data-led Solutions for Managing Disaster Risk
Capacity, Emergency, and Post-Emergency
Management and Preparedness (CEP MAP)
27.
28.
29.
30. “What is critical in today’s
complex world is the ability to
see over the horizon and around
corners to understand the impact
of today’s decisions on all of the
desired outcomes.”
KarlWhitelock
Senior Analyst
Stratecast Partners
(a division of Frost & Sullivan)
33. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Predictive analytics
Documents (e.g. Word)
Human expertise for cause-and-effect links
Influence diagrams
Behavioral economics
Bayesian networks
Agent-based models
Natural Language Processing (NLP)
Productivity improvement in project
Non-ML Artificial IntelligenceSimulation
What of the following Decision Intelligence (/ AI in decision making)
technologies do you use or offer? (check all that apply)
Vendors
N=23
34. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Quantitative decision analysis
Structuring and mapping decisions
Qualitative decision analysis
Forecasting
Designing fully automated decisions
Overcoming cognitive biases
Human decision making / cognitive science
Unintended consequence analysis
Sensemaking
Human decision making / neuroscience
Cognitive Function Analysis
What of the following Decision Intelligence best practices do you use or
offer?
Vendors
Users
N=23
You may not realize it, but today is an important moment in history . My goal for the next few minutes is to explain why, and to help you to understand how our hosts at prowler, as well as the other speakers you’ll hear from today, are crystallizing a movement that will have massive impact on humanity for decades to come.
No pressure, right? Let’s do this.
Western society has, to date, been about analysis: breaking problems down into discrete components.
But this approach is reaching diminishing returns in a complex world. Our technologies, like our problems, must be interlinked.
For most important problems, though, there’s a gap between these technologies and each other, and also between the technologies and the hardest problems that humanity faces.
This is our challenge today, and it is a historic moment, because we are beginning on the path towards unification.
This is the decision intelligence mental model map
Homework: go home and ask a friend to describe a tough decision they had to face. As they talk, listen for levers, outcomes, externals, and chains of cause-and-effect
“If I make this decision today, how will it affect my objectives in the future?”Every decision made by a human is a mental simulation: if I take this action, what will happen?
This framework integrates human decision makers with machine intelligence – each star is a location where technology can play a part.
Over 8,000 followers
Computers can also help to run these models backwards.
Ideology is doing the same thing we’ve always done, without awareness of the “why”
How to get there?
Platform ecosystems integrated into systems of systems and mediated by a technology framework.
The DI framework I showed you above is just one of several that will ultimately be used. All serve slightly different purposes.
This is what drove amazon, itunes, the app store, facebook, and much more. A platform ecosystem is the most important business model today, and dominates many industries.
We need a platform ecosystem to unify these technologies into a common framework.
Decision Intelligence Mental Model Map (used to determine which is the best decision)
DMN: the Decision Modeling Notation (used to record conditions under which to make which decisions)
Prowler’s ontology…
Several more, which need to be unified.
This shape is exploding everywhere. Here, the World Economic Forum shows how we must integrate technology with society to find solutions
An image from Raytheon
Every decision is a mental simulation. And actions taken in one realm impact others. It is understanding these connections that we solve the great problems. And statistics, machine learning, agent-based modeling, simulation, complexity science, system dynamics, cognitive science, and more, are all needed to understand things.
And this one is probably familiar too
How to get there?
Platform ecosystems integrated into systems of systems and mediated by a technology framework.
The DI framework I showed you above is just one of several that will ultimately be used. All serve slightly different purposes.
This is what drove amazon, itunes, the app store, facebook, and much more. A platform ecosystem is the most important business model today, and dominates many industries.
We need a platform ecosystem to unify these technologies into a common framework.
Note that this picture is from SAP, for which Decision Intelligence is on the road map.
Decision Intelligence Mental Model Map (used to determine which is the best decision)
DMN: the Decision Modeling Notation (used to record conditions under which to make which decisions)
Gongos
You can build an automated “decision dashboard” to help everyone to understand the decision blueprint. Different organizations and situations usually require a different look-and-feel