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AI
System
Dynamics
Operations
Research Big
Data
Predictive
Analytics
Complexity
Computational
Neuroscience
Statistical
Analysis Agent based
models
Simulation
Game Throey
Design
Thinking
Copyright © 2018 Quantallia LLC
1) Explosion of tech…
3) This is why we are
here today: to crystallize
technology into solutions
…we are (6) just
at the beginning
of the journey
Lots of complex
business problems
Decision Intelligence
… (5) and
decisions are
the unifying
principle
Human
Computer
Interaction
*Sustainable Development Goals are from the UN 2030 Agenda
In 2009, we asked:
“If technology could solve just one problem for
you that it has never solved before, what would
it be?”
THE DECISION ARCHETYPE
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External Factors
Externals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Goal
Goal
Each dependency may require
various kinds of tech
How much should we invest in
clean, energy-efficient
manufacturing equipment, given
that we have to pay a carbon tax?
“WHY?”
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External Factors
Externals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Goal
Goal
“HOW?”
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External Factors
Externals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Goal
Goal
“IDEOLOGY”
Decision Lever
Decision Lever
Traditional View
What will
be the
outcome?
What
decisions
can we
make?
Data, Analytics, Big Data,
Reports, Predictive Analytics,
Spreadsheets
Decision Intelligence view
What data, analytics, reports,
human expertise, and other
assets are relevant?
What
outcomes
do we
need or
want to
reach ?
What
decisions
will get us
there?
Source: SAP Leon
Source: Raytheon
Source: The Millenium Project
Source: The Millenium Project
Source: SAP Leo
“Decision Intelligence is on the
SAP roadmap.”
Data-led Solutions for Managing Disaster Risk
Capacity, Emergency, and Post-Emergency
Management and Preparedness (CEP MAP)
“What is critical in today’s
complex world is the ability to
see over the horizon and around
corners to understand the impact
of today’s decisions on all of the
desired outcomes.”
KarlWhitelock
Senior Analyst
Stratecast Partners
(a division of Frost & Sullivan)
32
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Predictive analytics
Documents (e.g. Word)
Human expertise for cause-and-effect links
Influence diagrams
Behavioral economics
Bayesian networks
Agent-based models
Natural Language Processing (NLP)
Productivity improvement in project
Non-ML Artificial IntelligenceSimulation
What of the following Decision Intelligence (/ AI in decision making)
technologies do you use or offer? (check all that apply)
Vendors
N=23
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Quantitative decision analysis
Structuring and mapping decisions
Qualitative decision analysis
Forecasting
Designing fully automated decisions
Overcoming cognitive biases
Human decision making / cognitive science
Unintended consequence analysis
Sensemaking
Human decision making / neuroscience
Cognitive Function Analysis
What of the following Decision Intelligence best practices do you use or
offer?
Vendors
Users
N=23
AI
System
Dynamics
Operations
Research Big
Data
Predictive
Analytics
Complexity
Computational
Neuroscience
Statistical
Analysis Agent based
models
Simulation
Game Throey
Design
Thinking
*Sustainable Development Goals are from the UN 2030 Agenda
1) Explosion of tech…
…we are (6) just
at the beginning
of the journey
Lots of complex
business problems
Decision Intelligence
… (5) and
decisions are
the unifying
principle
Human
Computer
Interaction
3) This is why we are here
today: to crystallize
technology into solutions
Lorien Pratt
Lorien.pratt@quantellia.com
www.lorienpratt.com Copyright © 2018 Quantellia LLC. All rights reserved.

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Decision Intelligence: a new discipline emerges

  • 1. AI System Dynamics Operations Research Big Data Predictive Analytics Complexity Computational Neuroscience Statistical Analysis Agent based models Simulation Game Throey Design Thinking Copyright © 2018 Quantallia LLC 1) Explosion of tech… 3) This is why we are here today: to crystallize technology into solutions …we are (6) just at the beginning of the journey Lots of complex business problems Decision Intelligence … (5) and decisions are the unifying principle Human Computer Interaction *Sustainable Development Goals are from the UN 2030 Agenda
  • 2. In 2009, we asked: “If technology could solve just one problem for you that it has never solved before, what would it be?”
  • 3. THE DECISION ARCHETYPE Decision Lever Outcome Outcome Outcome External Factors Decision Lever Intermediates External Factors Externals Intermediates Intermediates Goal Goal Goal Each dependency may require various kinds of tech
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. How much should we invest in clean, energy-efficient manufacturing equipment, given that we have to pay a carbon tax?
  • 9. “WHY?” Decision Lever Outcome Outcome Outcome External Factors Decision Lever Intermediates External Factors Externals Intermediates Intermediates Goal Goal Goal
  • 10. “HOW?” Decision Lever Outcome Outcome Outcome External Factors Decision Lever Intermediates External Factors Externals Intermediates Intermediates Goal Goal Goal
  • 12. Traditional View What will be the outcome? What decisions can we make? Data, Analytics, Big Data, Reports, Predictive Analytics, Spreadsheets
  • 13. Decision Intelligence view What data, analytics, reports, human expertise, and other assets are relevant? What outcomes do we need or want to reach ? What decisions will get us there?
  • 15.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Source: SAP Leo “Decision Intelligence is on the SAP roadmap.”
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Data-led Solutions for Managing Disaster Risk Capacity, Emergency, and Post-Emergency Management and Preparedness (CEP MAP)
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. “What is critical in today’s complex world is the ability to see over the horizon and around corners to understand the impact of today’s decisions on all of the desired outcomes.” KarlWhitelock Senior Analyst Stratecast Partners (a division of Frost & Sullivan)
  • 31.
  • 32. 32
  • 33. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Predictive analytics Documents (e.g. Word) Human expertise for cause-and-effect links Influence diagrams Behavioral economics Bayesian networks Agent-based models Natural Language Processing (NLP) Productivity improvement in project Non-ML Artificial IntelligenceSimulation What of the following Decision Intelligence (/ AI in decision making) technologies do you use or offer? (check all that apply) Vendors N=23
  • 34. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Quantitative decision analysis Structuring and mapping decisions Qualitative decision analysis Forecasting Designing fully automated decisions Overcoming cognitive biases Human decision making / cognitive science Unintended consequence analysis Sensemaking Human decision making / neuroscience Cognitive Function Analysis What of the following Decision Intelligence best practices do you use or offer? Vendors Users N=23
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. AI System Dynamics Operations Research Big Data Predictive Analytics Complexity Computational Neuroscience Statistical Analysis Agent based models Simulation Game Throey Design Thinking *Sustainable Development Goals are from the UN 2030 Agenda 1) Explosion of tech… …we are (6) just at the beginning of the journey Lots of complex business problems Decision Intelligence … (5) and decisions are the unifying principle Human Computer Interaction 3) This is why we are here today: to crystallize technology into solutions Lorien Pratt Lorien.pratt@quantellia.com www.lorienpratt.com Copyright © 2018 Quantellia LLC. All rights reserved.

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. You may not realize it, but today is an important moment in history . My goal for the next few minutes is to explain why, and to help you to understand how our hosts at prowler, as well as the other speakers you’ll hear from today, are crystallizing a movement that will have massive impact on humanity for decades to come. No pressure, right? Let’s do this. Western society has, to date, been about analysis: breaking problems down into discrete components. But this approach is reaching diminishing returns in a complex world. Our technologies, like our problems, must be interlinked. For most important problems, though, there’s a gap between these technologies and each other, and also between the technologies and the hardest problems that humanity faces. This is our challenge today, and it is a historic moment, because we are beginning on the path towards unification.
  2. This is the decision intelligence mental model map Homework: go home and ask a friend to describe a tough decision they had to face. As they talk, listen for levers, outcomes, externals, and chains of cause-and-effect “If I make this decision today, how will it affect my objectives in the future?” Every decision made by a human is a mental simulation: if I take this action, what will happen? This framework integrates human decision makers with machine intelligence – each star is a location where technology can play a part.
  3. Over 8,000 followers
  4. Computers can also help to run these models backwards.
  5. Ideology is doing the same thing we’ve always done, without awareness of the “why”
  6. How to get there? Platform ecosystems integrated into systems of systems and mediated by a technology framework. The DI framework I showed you above is just one of several that will ultimately be used. All serve slightly different purposes. This is what drove amazon, itunes, the app store, facebook, and much more. A platform ecosystem is the most important business model today, and dominates many industries. We need a platform ecosystem to unify these technologies into a common framework. Decision Intelligence Mental Model Map (used to determine which is the best decision) DMN: the Decision Modeling Notation (used to record conditions under which to make which decisions) Prowler’s ontology… Several more, which need to be unified.
  7. This shape is exploding everywhere. Here, the World Economic Forum shows how we must integrate technology with society to find solutions
  8. An image from Raytheon
  9. Every decision is a mental simulation. And actions taken in one realm impact others. It is understanding these connections that we solve the great problems. And statistics, machine learning, agent-based modeling, simulation, complexity science, system dynamics, cognitive science, and more, are all needed to understand things.
  10. And this one is probably familiar too
  11. How to get there? Platform ecosystems integrated into systems of systems and mediated by a technology framework. The DI framework I showed you above is just one of several that will ultimately be used. All serve slightly different purposes. This is what drove amazon, itunes, the app store, facebook, and much more. A platform ecosystem is the most important business model today, and dominates many industries. We need a platform ecosystem to unify these technologies into a common framework. Note that this picture is from SAP, for which Decision Intelligence is on the road map. Decision Intelligence Mental Model Map (used to determine which is the best decision) DMN: the Decision Modeling Notation (used to record conditions under which to make which decisions)
  12. Gongos
  13. You can build an automated “decision dashboard” to help everyone to understand the decision blueprint. Different organizations and situations usually require a different look-and-feel
  14. So no pressure. But let’s do this. Thank you.