Keynote Address - Globalization Versus Nationalization: The Future of Trade.

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Keynote Address - Globalization Versus Nationalization: The Future of Trade. The Economic Forecast for Supply Chain 2030. Gita Gopinath will chart new insights to drive your supply chain strategy. Gita Gopinath, John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and of Economics at Harvard University From the 2017 Supply Chain Insights Global Summit

Business

Gita Gopinath
Harvard University
John Zwaanstra Professor of International
Studies and Economics
Globalization Vs. Nationalization

1. TRADE: RECENT PAST
2. TRADE: THE FUTURE
3. CHINA & INDIA
ROAD MAP

• TRADE: RECENT PAST
• TRADE: THE FUTURE
• CHINA & INDIA
ROAD MAP

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Major Developments for Global Supply Chains: 1990s
1. Information and Communication Technology Revolution
2. Falling Trade Costs
3. Favorable Political Developments

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Golden Age of Global Supply Chains
• Deepening Trade Liberalization and falling transport costs

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
World Trade Intensity

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Changing Structure of Global Supply Chains: 1995
Source: OECD

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Changing Structure of Global Supply Chains: 2011
Source: OECD

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Global Supply Chains: Shift Eastwards
Source: OECD

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Rising Income Inequality (Top 1%)
Roine and Waldenstrom, (2015

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Trade Discontent (2014)
Source: Pew Research, 44 countries

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
Ominous Signs for Trade
1. Information and Communication Technology Revolution
2. Falling Trade Costs
3. Favorable Political Developments

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
PROTECTIONISM: RHETORIC Vs. FACTS
• No Reversal in Permanent Tariffs
• Increase in Non-Tariff barriers: 2% of trade
• Slowing of trade intensity
– 80% explained by economic activity/investment
– 20% by slowing value added chains and protectionism

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
LOOKING FORWARD
1. New Normal for Growth
2. New Normal for Trade Policy

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
#1 New Normal For Growth
World Advanced Emerging
2005 4.9% 2.8% 7.2%
2016 3.1% 1.7% 4.1%
2018* 3.6% 1.9% 4.8%
• Emerging Europe and Asia doing better than Latin America and Africa
Source: IMF

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
#1 New Normal For Growth: Weak Investment
Source: OECD

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
#1 New Normal For Growth: Policy Uncertainty
• US fiscal and regulatory reform
• BREXIT negotiations outcome
• Financial Risks in China

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
#2 New Normal For Trade Policy
• Trade Liberalization slowed since 2002
– Inconclusive Doha Round of WTO
• New Trade Agreements more contentious
– Intellectual Property Rights
– Harmonization of Standards
– Investment Dispute Settlement
– Agriculture
• Automation continue to scapegoat trade

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
#2 New Normal For Trade Policy
• World is moving on: Trade Negotiations in the works
– JEEPA: Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement
– EU-Canada Trade Agreement
– Trans-Pacific Partnership (11)
– RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Asia,
South Asia and South East Asian
– T-TIP: Transatlantic trade and investment partnership

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
China and India
CHINA INDIA
SIZE $11 trillion $2 trillion
GROWTH 6.6% 7.2%
DEMOGRAPHICS Ageing Young
FDI Rank #2 Rank #1
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
• China Belt and Road Initiative
• New Development Bank
• Chinese Infrastructure Investment Bank
• India Goods and Services Tax

Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017
#Imagine2030
TAKEAWAYS
• Globalization is not yet in retreat
• New normal for growth in trade intensity: 1-2%
• Look Eastwards

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Executive Overview If a supply chain leader cannot demonstrate improvement in operating margin, they are often fired. Consequences are severe. However, as complexity in global supply chains has increased, it has become increasingly difficult to improve profitability metrics. Among supply chain leaders, operating margin is one of the preferred measures of profitability. Successful supply chain management is about balance and particularly the balancing of growth, profitability, cycle and complexity. This is what we call The Effective Frontier. Supply chain management is getting tougher as commodity markets get more volatile, wage prices increase, and product life cycles shorten. It is up to the supply chain leader to design the network and processes to protect margin and balance the supply chain. This is becoming an increasingly difficult task. The challenges are many and they vary by industry. Commodity pressure is higher than at any previous point in time as shown in Figure 2. There is a limited toolkit for how to offset margin pressure. They include better planning, transportation optimization, rethinking network design, improved Sales & Operations (S&OP) execution, and Kanban events with suppliers and customers. None are easy or quick fixes. Additionally, while many think that calculating cost and monitoring profitability should be easy, this is not true. In our research, we find that only 24% of companies surveyed can easily access total supply chain cost information. The ability to get to the data and connect the dots on cost to operating margin performance remains difficult for most. In fact, as shown in Figure 3, for 53% of survey respondents, getting to total supply chain cost is difficult. Operating margin is a straightforward calculation with serious implications. Of the ten industries profiled in Table 1, only two have increased operating margin over the period: consumer electronics and consumer packaged goods. Furthermore, of the 18 companies profiled individually in this report, less than 40% (7/18 = 39%) have made progress on margin in 2012 compared to their result in 2000. As shown in Table 1, it is becoming more and more difficult for companies to maintain balance on their portfolio of supply chain metrics. This trend is true across all industry subgroups. Companies with the highest operating margin tend to be the least mature in their understanding of supply chain principles. As a result, they demonstrate the worst performance in balancing competing priorities on the Supply Chain Effective Frontier and are stuck on the Supply Chain Plateau. The positions of companies, and their relative successes over the last decade, are shown in figure 4. Table 1 is sorted by average operating margin with pharmaceutical companies returning the highest average value at 0.25 over the period. With the patent cliff, and significant changes in the healthcare environment including ongoing implementation of the Affordable Care Act, ...

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Keynote Address - Globalization Versus Nationalization: The Future of Trade.

1. Gita Gopinath Harvard University John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Economics Globalization Vs. Nationalization

2. 1. TRADE: RECENT PAST 2. TRADE: THE FUTURE 3. CHINA & INDIA ROAD MAP

3. • TRADE: RECENT PAST • TRADE: THE FUTURE • CHINA & INDIA ROAD MAP

4. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Major Developments for Global Supply Chains: 1990s 1. Information and Communication Technology Revolution 2. Falling Trade Costs 3. Favorable Political Developments

5. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Golden Age of Global Supply Chains • Deepening Trade Liberalization and falling transport costs

6. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 World Trade Intensity

7. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Changing Structure of Global Supply Chains: 1995 Source: OECD

8. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Changing Structure of Global Supply Chains: 2011 Source: OECD

9. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Global Supply Chains: Shift Eastwards Source: OECD

10. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Rising Income Inequality (Top 1%) Roine and Waldenstrom, (2015

11. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Trade Discontent (2014) Source: Pew Research, 44 countries

12. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 Ominous Signs for Trade 1. Information and Communication Technology Revolution 2. Falling Trade Costs 3. Favorable Political Developments

13. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 World Trade Intensity

14. • TRADE: RECENT PAST • TRADE: THE FUTURE • CHINA & INDIA ROAD MAP

15. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 PROTECTIONISM: RHETORIC Vs. FACTS • No Reversal in Permanent Tariffs • Increase in Non-Tariff barriers: 2% of trade • Slowing of trade intensity – 80% explained by economic activity/investment – 20% by slowing value added chains and protectionism

16. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 LOOKING FORWARD 1. New Normal for Growth 2. New Normal for Trade Policy

17. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 #1 New Normal For Growth World Advanced Emerging 2005 4.9% 2.8% 7.2% 2016 3.1% 1.7% 4.1% 2018* 3.6% 1.9% 4.8% • Emerging Europe and Asia doing better than Latin America and Africa Source: IMF

18. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 #1 New Normal For Growth: Weak Investment Source: OECD

19. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 #1 New Normal For Growth: Policy Uncertainty • US fiscal and regulatory reform • BREXIT negotiations outcome • Financial Risks in China

20. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 #2 New Normal For Trade Policy • Trade Liberalization slowed since 2002 – Inconclusive Doha Round of WTO • New Trade Agreements more contentious – Intellectual Property Rights – Harmonization of Standards – Investment Dispute Settlement – Agriculture • Automation continue to scapegoat trade

21. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 #2 New Normal For Trade Policy • World is moving on: Trade Negotiations in the works – JEEPA: Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement – EU-Canada Trade Agreement – Trans-Pacific Partnership (11) – RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Asia, South Asia and South East Asian – T-TIP: Transatlantic trade and investment partnership

22. • TRADE: RECENT PAST • TRADE: THE FUTURE • CHINA & INDIA ROAD MAP

23. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 China and India CHINA INDIA SIZE $11 trillion $2 trillion GROWTH 6.6% 7.2% DEMOGRAPHICS Ageing Young FDI Rank #2 Rank #1 MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS • China Belt and Road Initiative • New Development Bank • Chinese Infrastructure Investment Bank • India Goods and Services Tax

24. Supply Chain Insights Global Summit 2017 #Imagine2030 TAKEAWAYS • Globalization is not yet in retreat • New normal for growth in trade intensity: 1-2% • Look Eastwards

Keynote Address - Globalization Versus Nationalization: The Future of Trade.

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Keynote Address - Globalization Versus Nationalization: The Future of Trade.