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SUMMARY OF IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY




        Wednesday, January 16, 2013
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                   PAGE 2 OF 28




IrSOLaV - Investigaciones y Recursos Solares Avanzados
Calle Santiago Grisolía, 2 (PTM) – 28760, Tres Cantos (Madrid), España
Tel.: +34 91 126 36 12
info@irsolav.com
www.irsolav.com
www.solarexplorer.info
NIF B85148807




                                               Date: Wednesday, January 16, 2013


AUTHOR:                                        REVISED:
LUIS MARTIN (luis.martin@irsolav.com)          DIEGO BERMEJO (diego.bp@irsolav.com)
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                                                            PAGE 3 OF 28




                                                                       INDEX




1       DATA NEEDED ....................................................................................................................................... 5
2       SOLAR RADIATION DERIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES ................................................................ 5
2.1     Brief summary of IrSOLaV methodology to estimate solar radiation from satellite images .................... 7
2.2     Validation of hourly values of GHI data ................................................................................................. 10
3       SATELLITE COVERAGE ...................................................................................................................... 11
4       METEOROLOGICAL DATA FROM REANALYSIS MODEL ................................................................. 14
4.1     Validation of solar radiatione estimates from satellite images............................................................... 14
5       CORRECTION OF ESTIMATED DATA USING GROUND MEASURED DATA................................... 15
6       TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA (TMY2) ..................................................................................... 24
7       REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 26
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY   PAGE 4 OF 28
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 5 OF 28




1       DATA NEEDED

The solar radiation is a meteorological variable measured only in few measurement stations and during
short and, on most occasions, discontinuous periods of times. The lack of reliable information on solar
radiation, together with the spatial variability that it presents, leads to the fact that developers do not
find appropriate historical databases with information available on solar resource for concrete sites.
This lack provokes in turn serious difficulties at the moment of projecting or evaluating solar power
systems.

Among the possible different approaches to characterize the solar resource of a given specific site they
can be pointed out the following:

        Data from nearby stations. This option can be useful for relatively flat terrains and when
         distances are less than 10 km far from the site. In the case of complex terrain or longer distances
         the use of radiation data from other geographical points is absolutely inappropriate.
        Interpolation of surrounding measurements. This approach can be only used for areas with a
         high density of stations and for average distances between stations of about 20-50 km [Pérez et
         al., 1997; Zelenka et al., 1999].

Solar radiation estimation from satellite images is currently the most suitable approach. It supplies the
best information on the spatial distribution of the solar radiation and it is a methodology clearly
accepted by the scientific community and with a high degree of maturity [McArthur, 1998]. In this
regard, it is worth to mention that BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) has among its objectives
the improvement of methods for deriving solar radiation from satellite images, and also the Experts
Working Group of Task 36 of the Solar Heating and Cooling Implement Agreement of IEA (International
Energy Agency) focuses on solar radiation knowledge from satellite images.




2       SOLAR RADIATION DERIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES

Solar radiation derived from satellite images is based upon the establishment of a functional
relationship between the solar irradiance at the Earth’s surface and the cloud index estimated from the
satellite images. This relationship has been previously fitted by using high quality ground data, in such a
manner that the solar irradiance-cloud index correlation can be extrapolated to any location of interest
and solar radiation components can be calculated from the satellite observations for that point.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 6 OF 28


It has been generally accepted by the international scientific community that solar radiation estimation
(SRE) from Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellite (GEO) images is a suitable tool, taking into account
temporal and spatial distribution, availability of representative time series, to estimate solar resource at
locations where no previous ground historic radiometric records are available. The use of estimations
from satellites is considered better than nearby ground measurements when they are separated by
more than 3km from the location where the solar plant is planned.

GEO satellites orbit in the earth's equatorial plane at a mean height of 36,000 km. At this height, the
satellite's orbital period matches the rotation of the Earth, so the satellite seems to stay stationary over
the same point on the equator. Since the field of view of a satellite in geostationary orbit is fixed, it
always views the same geographical area, day and night. This is ideal for making regular sequential
observations of cloud patterns over a region with visible and infrared radiometers. High temporal
resolution and constant viewing angles are the defining features of geostationary imagery. Currently,
IrSOLaV uses GEO satellites images from Meteosat First Generation (MFG-IODC), Meteosat Second
Generation (MSG-PRIME), Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Multi-
functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT-PACIFIC).




                        Figure 1. Global coverage of geostationary satellites around the Earth.




The main advantages in the use of images from GEO satellites are the following:

       The GEO satellite sees simultaneously large areas of terrain, allowing it to know the spatial
        distribution of the information, as well as, determine the relative differences between one zone
        to the other.
       When the information available (satellite images) belongs to the same area, it is possible to
        study the evolution of the values in one pixel of the image, or in a specific geographic zone.

It is possible to know past situations when there are satellites images recorded and stored previously.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 7 OF 28


2.1    Brief summary of IrSOLaV methodology to estimate solar radiation from satellite images
The methodology of IrSOLaV uses two main inputs to compute hourly solar irradiance: the
geostationary satellite images and the information about the attenuating properties of the atmosphere.
The former consists of one image per hour offering information related with the cloud cover
characteristics. The latter is basically information on the daily Linke turbidity which is a very
representative parameter to model the attenuating processes which affects solar radiation on its path
through the atmosphere, mainly the aerosol optical depth and water vapor column.

The methodology applied has undoubtedly been accepted by the scientific community and its main
usefulness is in the estimation of the spatial distribution of solar radiation over a region. Its maturity is
guaranteed by initiatives like the establishment in 2004 of a new IEA (International Energy Agency)
task known as “Solar Radiation Knowledge from Satellite Images” or the fact that the measuring solar
radiation network BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) promoted by WMO (World
Meteorological Organization) has as its main objectives for the improvement of solar radiation
estimation from satellite images models.

Various methods for deriving solar radiation from satellite images were developed during ’80. One of
them was the method Heliosat-1 (Cano, 1982; Cano et al., 1986; Diabaté et al., 1988) which could be one
of the most accurate (Grüter et al., 1986; Raschke et al., 1991). The method Heliosat-2 (Rigollier et al.,
2001; Rigollier et al., 2004) integrates the knowledge gained by these various exploitations of the
original method and its varieties in a coherent and thorough way.

Both versions are based in the computation of a cloud index (n) from the comparison between the
reflectance, or apparent albedo, observed by the spaceborne sensor (ρ), the apparent albedo of the
brightest clouds (ρc) and the apparent albedo of the ground under clear skies (ρg):


                                        n      g   c   g 
                                                                       1
                                                                                                     (1)




For the estimation of radiation at ground level the method Heliosat-1 uses an empirical adjusted
relation between the cloud index and the clearness index (KT). The new Heliosat-2 method uses a
relation between the cloud index and the clear sky index (KC) defined as the ratio of the global
irradiance (G) to the global irradiance under clear sky (Gclear).

                                                        G
                                                KC                                                  (2)
                                                       Gclear
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                               PAGE 8 OF 28


The Heliosat method deals with atmospheric and cloud extinction separately. As a first step the
irradiance under clear skies is calculated by using the ESRA/SOLIS/REST2 clear sky model (Rigollier et
al., 2000), where daily values of Linke turbidity factor, AOD at 550nm and Water vapor content of the
atmosphere are the parameters required for the composition of the atmosphere. The following
relationship between the cloud index and the clear sky index is then used for the global solar radiation
determination (Rigollier and Wald, 1998; Fontoynont et al., 1998):

                              n   0.2 , KC  1.2
                       0.2  n     0.8   , KC  1  n
                                                                                                    (3)
                       0.8  n      1.1 , KC  2.0667  3.6667 n  1.6667 n 2
                        1.1  n            , KC  0.05



Solar radiation estimation from satellite images offered is made from a modified version of the
renowned model Heliosat-3, developed and validated by CIEMAT with more than thirty radiometric
stations in the Iberian Peninsula. Over this first development, IrSOLaV has generated a tool fully
operational which is applied on a database of satellite images available with IrSOLaV (temporal and
spatial resolution of the data depends on the satellite covering the region under study). It is worthwhile
to point out that tuning-up and fitting of the original methodology in different locations of the World
have been performed and validated with local data from radiometric stations installed in the region of
interest. This way, it may be considered that the treatment of the information from satellite images
offered by IrSOLaV is an exclusive service.

Even though the different research groups working in this field are making use of the same core
methodologies, there are several characteristics that differ depending on the specific objectives
pursued. Therefore, the main differences between the IrSOLaV/CIEMAT and others, like the ones
applied by PVGis or Helioclim are:

       Filtering of images and terrestrial data. Images and data used for the fitting and relations are
        thoroughly filtered with procedures developed specifically for this purpose.
       Selection of albedo for clear sky days. The algorithm used to select albedos for clear sky days
        provides a daily sequence that is different for every year; however the other methodologies use
        a unique monthly value.
       Introduction of characteristic variables. The relation developed by IrSOLaV/CIEMAT includes
        new variables characterizing the climatology of the site and the geographical location, with a
        significant improvement of the results obtained for global and direct solar radiation.
       Global horizontal irradiance is estimated by relating the clear sky index with the cloud index, the
        cloud index distribution and the air mass (Zarzalejo et al., 2009).
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                 PAGE 9 OF 28



       Ground albedo is estimated by a moving window of about 20 days that comprises images of the
        central instants in terms of co-scattering angle (Zarzalejo, 2005). This method allows the daily
        computation of the ground albedo.
       Direct normal irradiance for non-clear sky situations is calculated using the Louche conversion
        function (Louche et al., 1991) and DirIndex model {Perez, 1992 1000439 /id} which takes into
        account daily values of AOD at 550nm and water vapour column obtained from MODIS satellite
        and MACC database.
       Clear sky days are identified (Polo et al., 2009) and estimated separately by the ESRA
        transmittance model (Rigollier et al., 2000). Besides, as some clear sky models behave better in
        some locations and other depending in local climatic conditions of the sites, SOLIS and REST2
        clear sky models are also tested.
       Input of daily of values of Aerosol optical depth (AOD) 500nm and column water vapor content
        estimated from MODIS satellite for the period from 2000 to 2012. The resolution of the dataset
        is 1º by 1º and it has a global coverage.
       Daily Linke turbidity factor is estimated by the Ineichen correlation from AOD at 550 nm and
        water vapour obtained from MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite (Ineichen, 2008) for ESRA model.
       Application of a method to fit the angular dependence of the sun and satellite and the ground
        albedo estimations {Polo, 2012 1000423 /id}. In classical Heliosat-3 method the potential
        overestimation of cloud index under some situations for high reflective (deserted regions
        mainly) sites could lead to noticeable underestimation of the surface solar irradiance.




The uncertainty of the estimation comparing with hourly ground pyranometric measurements is
expressed in terms of the relative root mean squared error (RMSE). Different assessments and
benchmarking tests can been found at the available literature concerning the use of satellite images
(Meteosat and GOES) on different geographic sites and using different models [Pinker y Ewing, 1985;
Zelenka et al., 1999; Pereira et al., 2003; Rigollier et al., 2004; Lefevre et al., 2007]. The uncertainty for
hourly values is estimated to be around 20-25% RMSE and in a daily basis the uncertainty of the models
used is around 13-17%. It is important to mention here the contribution given by Zelenka in terms of
distributing the origin of this error, concluding that 12-13% is produced by the methodology itself
converting satellite information into radiation data and a relevant fraction of 7-10% because of the
uncertainty of the ground measurements used for the comparison. In addition Zelenka estimates that
the error of using nearby ground stations beyond 5 km reaches 15%. Because of that his conclusion is
that the use of hourly data from satellite images is more accurate than using information from nearby
stations located more than 5 km far from the site.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                        PAGE 10 OF 28


The IrSOLaV methodology is based on the work developed in CIEMAT by the group of Solar Radiation
Studies. The model has been assessed for 30 Spanish sites with the following uncertainty results for
global horizontal irradiance:

          About 12% RMSE for hourly values
          Less than 10% for daily values
          Less than 5% for annual and monthly means




2.2       Validation of hourly values of GHI data




This validation section belongs to the scientific publication {Zarzalejo, 2009 1000137 /id}. Simultaneous
data of satellite derived cloud index and hourly global irradiance on ground-based stations are used for
model development and assessment for 28 locations in Spain. The geographic information of the
radiometric stations is listed in Table 1. The time period covered is from January 1994 to December
2004. In the cloud index estimations the HRI-VIS channel images of Meteosat are used. The spatial
resolution is 2.5 x 2.5 km at nadir and the temporal resolution is 30 minutes (EUMETSAT, 2001).

After an exhaustive quality analysis of the simultaneous data around 370000 hourly data pairs are
available for fitting and assessment the new models (Zarzalejo, 2006). The whole data set is randomly
separated into two groups, 80% for fitting the models and 20% for assessment.




                         Table 1. Geographic information of the Spanish radiometric stations

#          Station      Latitude    Longitude     Height      #     Station     Latitude       Longitude     Height
                                                   (m)                                                         (m)
 1    Cádiz             36.50 ºN     6.27 ºW        15       15   Barcelona     41.38 ºN        2.20 ºE         25
 2    Málaga            36.72 ºN     4.48 ºW        61       16   Soria         41.60 ºN        2.50 ºW       1090
 3    Almería (CMT)     36.85 ºN     2.38 ºW        29       17   Zaragoza      41.63 ºN        0.92 ºW        250
 4    Huelva            37.28 ºN     6.92 ºW        19       18   Lérida        41.63 ºN        0.60 ºE        202
 5    Murcia            38.00 ºN     1.17 ºW        69       19   Valladolid    41.65 ºN        4.77 ºW        740
 6    Badajoz           38.88 ºN     7.02 ºW       190       20   La Rioja      42.43 ºN        2.38 ºW        365
 7    Ciudad Real       38.98 ºN     3.92 ºW       628       21   Pontevedra    42.58 ºN        8.80 ºW         15
 8    Albacete          39.00 ºN     1.87 ºW       674       22   León          42.58 ºN        5.65 ºW        914
 9    Cáceres           39.47 ºN     6.33 ºW       405       23   Álava         42.85 ºN        2.65 ºW        508
10    Valencia          39.48 ºN     0.38 ºW        23       24   Vizcaya       43.30 ºN        2.93 ºW         41
11    Toledo            39.88 ºN     4.05 ºW       516       25   Guipúzcoa     43.30 ºN        2.03 ºW        259
12    Madrid            40.45 ºN     3.72 ºW       680       26   Asturias      43.35 ºN        5.87 ºW        348
13    Tarragona         40.82 ºN     0.48 ºE        44       27   La Coruña     43.37 ºN        8.42 ºW         67
14    Salamanca         40.95 ºN     5.92 ºW       803       28   Cantabria     43.48 ºN        3.80 ºW         79
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                             PAGE 11 OF 28


Relative mean bias error and root mean squared error of IrSOLaV/CIEMAT is 0.31% MBE and 17.21%
RMSE.

    Table 2. Statistical errors of hourly time series estimated from meteosat satellite against ground
                                               measured data

                                #         Station      MBE(%)     RMSE(%)
                                1      Cádiz             -0.06      12.24
                                2      Málaga             1.40      12.60
                                3      Almería (CMT)      1.20      13.11
                                4      Huelva            -1.04      14.59
                                5      Murcia            13.69      30.08
                                6      Badajoz            3.51      15.03
                                7      Ciudad Real        0.63      13.89
                                8      Albacete          -0.24      16.85
                                9      Cáceres            1.08      16.39
                               10      Valencia           0.88      18.04
                               11      Toledo             0.61      15.16
                               12      Madrid             1.17      13.65
                               13      Tarragona          1.33      15.09
                               14      Salamanca         -0.04      15.17
                               15      Barcelona          5.62      24.22
                               16      Soria              0.17      22.07
                               17      Zaragoza           0.25      13.47
                               18      Lérida            -0.42      26.18
                               19      Valladolid         1.52      14.11
                               20      La Rioja           0.59      13.84
                               21      Pontevedra         0.21      16.68
                               22      León              -0.53      20.93
                               23      Álava             -0.66      21.37
                               24      Vizcaya            0.42      18.35
                               25      Guipúzcoa         -0.37      27.04
                               26      Asturias          -0.12      24.63
                               27      La Coruña         -1.94      25.64
                               28      Cantabria         -0.21      28.75
                              MEAN                        0.93      18.85




3     SATELLITE COVERAGE

There are two main satellite orbits: Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellites (GEO) and Low Earth
Orbiting Satellites (LEO). GEO satellites hover over a single point at an altitude of about 36,000
kilometers and to maintain constant height and momentum, a geostationary satellite must be located
over the equator. LEO satellites travel in a circular orbit moving from pole to pole, collecting data in a
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                               PAGE 12 OF 28


swath beneath them as the earth rotates on its axis. In this way, a polar orbiting satellite can “see” the
entire planet twice in a 24 hour period.




GEO satellites orbit in the earth's equatorial plane at a mean height of 36,000 km. At this height, the
satellite's orbital period matches the rotation of the Earth, so the satellite seems to stay stationary over
the same point on the equator. Since the field of view of a satellite in geostationary orbit is fixed, it
always views the same geographical area, day and night. This is ideal for making regular sequential
observations of cloud patterns over a region with visible and infrared radiometers. High temporal
resolution and constant viewing angles are the defining features of geostationary imagery. Currently,
IrSOLaV uses GEO satellites images from Meteosat First Generation (Meteosat-7), Meteosat Second
Generation (MSG) and GOES as well as atmospheric data from Terra and Aqua Polar (LEO) satellites.



The main advantages in the use of images from GEO satellites are the following:

    •   The GEO satellite sees simultaneously large areas of terrain, allowing it to know the spatial
        distribution of the information, as well as, determine the relative differences between one zone
        to the other
    •   When the information available (satellite images) belongs to the same area, it is possible to
        study the evolution of the values in one pixel of the image, or in a specific geographic zone.
    •   It is possible to know past situations when there are satellite images recorded and stored
        previously.



IrSOLaV has a database of satellite images of excellent quality and updated by a receiving station. The
new images received are filtered before its storage in a fully automatic process. The data warehouse of
IrSOLaV is composed of the following satellite images which covers different regions of the planet:



MFG: The Meteosat First Generation (MFG) are a set of satellites which provides the Indian Ocean Data
Coverage (IODC) service covering the region shown in the centered image further down. These set of
satellites were previously located over the position 0º of latitude covering Europe, Africa, Arabian
Peninsula and some parts of Brazil (see figure further down on the right). The current near real-time
data are rectified to 57.50 E and it provides imagery data 24 hours a day from the three spectral
channels of the main instrument, the Meteosat Visible and InfraRed Imager (MVIRI), every 30 minutes.
The three channels are in the visible, infrared, and water vapor regions of the electromagnetic spectrum.
The IrSOLaV-CIEMAT database stores MFG images for IODC from 1999 to the present and also for the
latitude 0 degrees (previous position) for the period from 1994 to 2005.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                             PAGE 13 OF 28




MSG: The Meteosat Second Generation satellite is a significantly enhanced system to the previous
version of Meteosat (MFG). MSG consists of a series of four geostationary meteorological satellites that
operate consecutively. The MSG system provides accurate weather monitoring data through its primary
instrument the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), which has the capacity to
observe the Earth in 12 spectral channels. The temporal resolution of the satellite is 15 minutes and the
spatial resolution is 1km at Nadir Position (over latitude 0 and longitude 0).



The radiometric and geometric non-linearity errors of the imagery data are corrected to solve any
mistakes in the acquisition from the sensor. The data are accompanied with the appropriate ancillary
information that allows the user to calculate the geographical position and radiance of any pixel. The
IrSOLaV-CIEMAT database stores MSG images from 2006 to the current period (latitude 0 deg).



GOES (The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite): The United States of America operates
two meteorological satellites in geostationary orbit over the equator. Each satellite views almost a third
of the Earth's surface: one monitors North and South America and most of the Atlantic Ocean, the other
North America and the Pacific Ocean basin. GOES-12 (or GOES-East) is positioned at 75º W longitude on
the equator, while GOES-11 (or GOES-West) is positioned at 135º W longitude on the equator. Both
operate together to produce a full-face picture of the Earth, day and night. Coverage extends
approximately from 20º W longitude to 165º E longitude. The GOES satellites are able to observe the
Earth disk with five spectral channels. The IrSOLaV-CIEMAT database contain GOES images from 2000
to the present.




MODIS: The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer is a key instrument aboard of the Terra
(EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. The orbit of Terra around the Earth is timed so that it passes
from North to South across the equator in the morning, while Aqua passes from South to North over the
equator in the afternoon. Terra and Aqua view the entire Earth's surface with a frequency from 1 to 2
days, acquiring data in 36 spectral bands, or groups of wavelengths (see MODIS Technical Specifications
on NASA web). These data improve our understanding of global dynamics and processes occurring on
the ground, oceans, and lower atmosphere. MODIS is playing a vital role in the development of validated,
global, interactive Earth system models able to predict global change accurately enough to assist policy
makers in making sound decisions concerning the protection of our environment.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                              PAGE 14 OF 28


The effect of the atmospheric turbidity on solar radiation is applied in IrSOLaV-CIEMAT model by using
the daily values of Linke Turbidity factor from MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites and daily values of AOD
(Aerosol Optical Depth) at 550 nm and of water vapour column.



4         METEOROLOGICAL DATA FROM REANALYSIS MODEL

Meteorological data is an important parameter to simulate correctly solar energy systems to produce
electricity. IrSOLaV uses NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Climate Forecast System
Version 2 (CFSV2) datasets.

4.1       Validation of solar radiatione estimates from satellite images


The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)
as initially completed over the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009 and has been extended to March 2011.
Selected CFSR time series products are available at 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.5 degree horizontal resolutions at
hourly intervals by combining either 1) the analysis and one- through five-hour forecasts, or 2) the one-
through six-hour forecasts, for each initialization time.


For data to extend CFSR beyond March 2011, IrSOLaV will use the Climate Forecast System Version 2
(CFSV2) datasets. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System
(CFS) is initialized four times per day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z). NCEP upgraded CFS to version 2 on
March 30, 2011. This is the same model that was used to create the NCEP Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis (CFSR). Selected CFS time series products are available at 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.5 degree
horizontal resolutions at hourly intervals by combining either 1) the analysis and one- through five-
hour forecasts, or 2) the one- through six-hour forecasts, for each initialization time. Beginning with
January 1, 2011, these data are archived as an extension of CFSR.


IrSOLaV can provide the following meteorological data:

          Air Temperature 2 m height above ground (Ta)
          Relative air humidity 2 m height above ground (RH)
          Wind speed at 10 m height above ground (WS)
          Wind direction at 10 m height above ground (WD)
          Barometric Pressure at/near ground level (BP)
          Precipitation (R).
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                              PAGE 15 OF 28



5      CORRECTION OF ESTIMATED DATA USING GROUND MEASURED DATA

Due to particular behavior of each one of the meteorological variables, the correction will be done with
ad-hoc physical or statistical methods which treat in a better way the dynamic of the variable. To correct
values of solar radiation estimated from satellite with ground measured radiometric data the turbidity
of the site will be characterized. The rest of meteorological variables will be corrected using statistical
methods. The methodologies which will be applied are explained in the next paragraphs.




Linke Turbidity (TL) establishes a relationship between the real and theoretical optical depth of the
atmosphere and represents the degree of transparency of the atmosphere. It is an adequate
approximation when quantifying the effects of absorption and dispersion on solar radiation when
trespassing the atmosphere. It can be obtained directly from measurements; however, due to the lack of
them, it is generally obtained from empirical adjustments. We will obtain the Linke Turbidity from
measurements registered. After this selection, we will obtain the values of TL using the inverse of a clear
sky model {Ineichen, 2002 1000401 /id}.




In the next figures, we show some plots of hourly values of DNI for clear sky days selected manually for
a location in Spain. In the plots, measured clear sky DNI (blue), modeled clear sky DNI (green), DNI
estimated from satellite MODIS TL and DirIndex model (pink) and DNI estimated from satellite MODIS
TL and Louche model (red). In the figure we show also the values of daily TL estimated from MODIS
satellite and estimated from measurements for all hourly values and for two hours during the day at
noon hours (11:00 and 12:00 UTC). The values of TL are calculated from measurement at noon hours
because there are some days which have clear sky conditions in most of the hours of the day but not in
all.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 16 OF 28




          Figure 2. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 09/01/2010.




          Figure 3. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 29/01/2010.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 17 OF 28




          Figure 4. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 01/02/2010.




          Figure 5. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 25/02/2011.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 18 OF 28




          Figure 6. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 02/04/2010.




          Figure 7. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 05/05/2009.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 19 OF 28




          Figure 8. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 18/05/2009.




The next figures represent the same information as in the last one but for cloudy conditions.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                               PAGE 20 OF 28




         Figure 9. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a cloudy sky day. 07/01/2011.




        Figure 10. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a cloudy sky day. 10/01/2010.
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                              PAGE 21 OF 28


The next figures show some examples of the relationship between daily Linke Turbidity (TL) estimated
from MODIS satellite and estimated from measurements with clear sky days for several months in a site
in Spain. TL is obtained from several years of measurements:




                                     TL MEASUREMENTS
                                     TL MODIS SATELLITE
                           3,5

                            3

                           2,5
         Linke Turbidity




                            2

                           1,5

                            1

                           0,5

                            0
                                 1    2     3     4       5    6     7     8      9     10   11   12   13   14
                                                              Sample days for January



    Figure 11. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in January
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                                                             PAGE 22 OF 28




                                                                            TL MEASUREMENTS

                                                                            TL MODIS SATELLITE
                                               4

                                           3,5

                                               3
                         Linke Turbidity




                                           2,5

                                               2

                                           1,5

                                               1

                                           0,5

                                               0
                                                       1       2       3     4    5    6      7     8    9    10      11   12   13   14   15   16
                                                                                           Sample days for February




   Figure 12. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in February




                                                                           TL MEASUREMENTS
                                                                           TL MODIS SATELLITE
                         7


                         6


                         5
       Linke Turbidity




                         4


                         3


                         2


                         1


                         0
                                           1       3       5       7   9     11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
                                                                                           Sample days for June



     Figure 13. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in June
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                  PAGE 23 OF 28




      Figure 14. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in July




   Figure 15. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in October
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                PAGE 24 OF 28


The deviations observed in the last figures are due to the fact that daily values of water vapor and AOD
at 550nm obtained from MODIS satellite are representative of an area of 1º by 1º and local effects on
constituents in the atmosphere are not taken into account. This way, the deviations between TL
estimated from MODIS and measurements will be corrected using non-linear models. After
characterization of Linke Turbidity, the correction coefficients will be applied to the whole series of
daily turbidity dataset estimated MODIS which has a period from year 2001 to the present. Finally, using
corrected input of Linke Turbidity into IrSOLaV method to estimate solar radiation from satellite images
the whole data will be reprocessed for the 12 years of data to obtain corrected characterized local
values of Global Horizontal (GHI), Direct Normal (DNI) and diffuse irradiance (DIF).




This process will be done in 4 phases: after having 3, 6 , 9 and 12 months of radiometric measured data.
This way, values of TL, and subsequently radiometric estimations, will be corrected only for the whole
period of years (12 years) and in those months where measured data are available. In conclusion, only
when one year of measurements is available the correction will be applied to the whole time series of 12
years of solar radiation (GHI, DNI and DIF) estimations from satellite images.




6     TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA (TMY2)

IrSOLaV has the methodology to offer time series of solar irradiance for:

             •   Europe: from 1994 to the present (MFG + MSG).

             •   Africa: from 2006 to the present (MSG).

             •   America: from 2000 to the present (GOES).

             •   Asia: from 1999 to the present (IODC).

The analysis of solar energy systems are based on the detailed study and simulation of solar energy
power plants to evaluate thermal and electrical production of the plant using the solar irradiance long-
term estimations from satellite.

For any specific site, the process of obtaining solar irradiance time series includes: a complete statistical
analysis of the satellite imagery database, analysis of the monthly and annual solar irradiance satellite
estimations comparing them with ground data available in the zone nearby. The time series that can be
delivered are global horizontal (GHI) and direct normal irradiances DNI (with tracking in one and two
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                            PAGE 25 OF 28


axis if required). Besides, to characterize the long-term dynamics of solar radiation and meteorological
variables for any location we provide typical meteorological years (TMY).

Data of solar radiation for any location is provided in electronic format (Excel, ASCII, EPW, TMY2 or any
other format requested).
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                 PAGE 26 OF 28



7     REFERENCES

De Miguel, A., and Bilbao, J., 2005. Test reference year generation from meteorological and simulated
solar radiation data. Solar Energy 78, 695-703.

Cony, M., Polo, J., Martín, L. and Navarro, A.A., 2012. Analysis of solar irradiation anomalies in long term
over India. Geophysical Research, 1761. Austria

Cony, M., Martín, L., Polo, J., Marchante, R., and Navarro, A.A. 2011. Sensitivity of satellite derived solar
radiation to the temporal variability of aerosol input. SolarPACES, Granada, Spain.

Cony, M., Martin, L., Marchante, R., Polo, J., Zarzalejo, L.F., Navarro, A.A., 2011. Global horizontal
irradiance and direct normal irradiance from HRV images of Meteosat Second Generation. Geophysical
Research, 10373. Austria.

Cony, M., Zarzalejo, L.F., Polo, J., Marchante, R., Martín, L., Navarro, A.A., 2010. Modelling solar irradiance
from HRV images of Meteosat Second Generation. Geophysical Research Abstract, Vol. 12, EGU2010-
4292. Vienna, Austria.

Espinar, B., Ramirez, L., Drews, A., Beyer, H.G., Zarzalejo, L.F., Polo, J., Martin, L., 2009. Analysis of
different comparison parameters applied to solar radiation data from satellite and German radiometric
stations. Solar Energy, Vol 83, 1, 118-125.

Lefevre, M., Wald, L., and Diabate, L., 2007. Using reduced data sets ISCCP-B2 from the Meteosat
satellites to assess surface solar irradiance. Solar Energy 81, 240-253.

Martín, L., Cony, M., Polo, J., Zarzalejo, L.F., Navarro, A., and Marchante, R., 2011. Global Solar and Direct
Normal Irradiance Forecasting Using Global Forecast System (GFS) and Statistical Techniques.
SolarPACES, Granada, Spain.

Martin, L., Zarzalejo, L.F., Polo, J., Navarro, A.A., Marchante, R., and Cony, M., 2010. Prediction of global
solar irradiance based on time series analysis: Application to solar thermal power plants energy
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Martín, L., Cony, M., Navarro, A.A., Zarzalejo, L.F., and Polo, J., 2010. Estación de recepción de imágenes
del satélite Meteosat Segunda Generación: Arquitectura Informática y Software de Proceso. Informe
Técnico CIEMAT, Vol. 1200, 1135-9420, NIPO: 471-10-014-8.

McArthur, L. J. B., 1998. Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Operations manual V1.0. Serie:
World Climate Research Programme. Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
(Switzerland).
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                                  PAGE 27 OF 28


Meyer, R., Hoyer, C., Schillings, C., Trieb, F., Diedrich, E., and Schroedter, M., 2004. SOLEMI: A new
satellite-based service for high-resolution and precision solar radiation data for Europe, Africa and Asia.
DLR (Germany).

Pereira, E. B., Martins, F., Abreu, S. L., Beyer, H. G., Colle, S., and Perez, R., 2003. Cross validation of
satellite radiation transfer models during SWERA project in Brazil. Ponencias de: ISES solar world
Congress 2003, Göteborg (Sweden).

Pérez, R., Seals, R., and Zelenka, A., 1997. Comparing satellite remote sensing and ground network
measurements for the production of site time specific irradiance data. Solar Energy 60, 89-96.

Pinker, R. T., and Ewing, J. A., 1985. Modeling surface solar radiation: model formulation and validation.
Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 24, 389-401.

Pissimanis, D., Karras, G., Notaridou, V., and Gavra, K., 1988. The generation of a "typical meteorological
year" for the city of Athens. Solar Energy 40, 405-411.

Polo, J., Zarzalejo, L.F., Cony, M., Navarro, A.A., Marchante, R., Martin, L., and Romero, M., 2011. Solar
radiation estimations over India using Meteosat satellite images. Solar Energy, Vol. 85, 2395-2406.

Polo, J., Zarzalejo, L.F., Salvador, P., and Ramirez, L., 2009. Angstrom turbidity and ozone column
estimations from spectral solar irradiance in a semi-desertic environment in Spain, Solar Energy, Vol 83,
2, 257-263.

Polo, J., 2009. Optimización de modelos de estimación de la radiación solar a partir de imágenes de
satélite. PhD presented at Complutense University of Madrid (Spain).

Polo, J., Zarzalejo, L. F., Martin, L., Navarro, A. A., and Marchante, R., 2009a. Estimation of daily Linke
turbidity factor by using global irradiance measurements at solar noon. Solar Energy 83, 1177-1185.

Polo J., Zarzalejo, L.F., and Ramirez, L., 2008. Solar radiation derived from satellite images, pp. 449-461.
Contenido en: Modeling Solar Radiation at the Earth Surface. Editado por: Viorel Badescu. Springer-
Verlag.

Polo, J., Zarzalejo, L.F., Ramirez, L., and Espinar, B., 2006. Iterative filtering of ground data for qualifying
statistical models for solar irradiance estimation from satellite data, Solar Energy, Vol 80, 3, 240-247.

Ramírez, L., Zarzalejo, L. F., Polo, J., and Espinar, B., 2004. Modelización de la radiación solar a escala
regional: Tratamiento de imágenes de satélite para cálculo de la radiación solar global en España. 2º
Congreso Internacional Ambiental del Caribe, Cartagena de Indias (Colombia).
IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY                                                                               PAGE 28 OF 28


Rigollier, C., Albuisson, M., Delamare, C., Dumortier, D., Fontoynot, M., Gaboardi, E., Gallino, S.,
Heinemann, D., Kleih, M., Kunz, S., Levermore, G., Major, G., Martinoli, M., Page, J., Ratto, C., Reise, C.,
Remund, J., Rimoczi-Pall, A., Wald, L., and Webb, A., 2000a. Explotaition of distributed solar radiation
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Copenhagen (Denmark).

Rigollier, C., Bauer, O., and Wald, L., 2000b. On the clear sky model of the ESRA -- European Solar
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China. Energy Conversion and Management 48, 654-668.

Zarzalejo, L. F., Polo, J., Martín, L., Ramírez, L., and Espinar, B., 2009. A new statistical approach for
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Zarzalejo, L.F., 2005. Estimaciones de la irradiancia global horaria a partir de imágenes de satélite.
Desarrollo de modelos empíricos. PhD presented at Universidad Complutense de Madrid.

Zarzalejo, L. F., Tellez, F., Palomo, E., and Heras, M. R., 1995. Creation of Typical Meteorological Years
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Athens (Greece).

Zelenka, A., Perez, R., Seals, R., and Renne, D., 1999. Effective accuracy of satellite-derived hourly
irradiances. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 62, 199-207.

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Irsolav Methodology 2013

  • 1. SUMMARY OF IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY Wednesday, January 16, 2013
  • 2. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 2 OF 28 IrSOLaV - Investigaciones y Recursos Solares Avanzados Calle Santiago Grisolía, 2 (PTM) – 28760, Tres Cantos (Madrid), España Tel.: +34 91 126 36 12 info@irsolav.com www.irsolav.com www.solarexplorer.info NIF B85148807 Date: Wednesday, January 16, 2013 AUTHOR: REVISED: LUIS MARTIN (luis.martin@irsolav.com) DIEGO BERMEJO (diego.bp@irsolav.com)
  • 3. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 3 OF 28 INDEX 1 DATA NEEDED ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2 SOLAR RADIATION DERIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES ................................................................ 5 2.1 Brief summary of IrSOLaV methodology to estimate solar radiation from satellite images .................... 7 2.2 Validation of hourly values of GHI data ................................................................................................. 10 3 SATELLITE COVERAGE ...................................................................................................................... 11 4 METEOROLOGICAL DATA FROM REANALYSIS MODEL ................................................................. 14 4.1 Validation of solar radiatione estimates from satellite images............................................................... 14 5 CORRECTION OF ESTIMATED DATA USING GROUND MEASURED DATA................................... 15 6 TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA (TMY2) ..................................................................................... 24 7 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 26
  • 4. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 4 OF 28
  • 5. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 5 OF 28 1 DATA NEEDED The solar radiation is a meteorological variable measured only in few measurement stations and during short and, on most occasions, discontinuous periods of times. The lack of reliable information on solar radiation, together with the spatial variability that it presents, leads to the fact that developers do not find appropriate historical databases with information available on solar resource for concrete sites. This lack provokes in turn serious difficulties at the moment of projecting or evaluating solar power systems. Among the possible different approaches to characterize the solar resource of a given specific site they can be pointed out the following:  Data from nearby stations. This option can be useful for relatively flat terrains and when distances are less than 10 km far from the site. In the case of complex terrain or longer distances the use of radiation data from other geographical points is absolutely inappropriate.  Interpolation of surrounding measurements. This approach can be only used for areas with a high density of stations and for average distances between stations of about 20-50 km [Pérez et al., 1997; Zelenka et al., 1999]. Solar radiation estimation from satellite images is currently the most suitable approach. It supplies the best information on the spatial distribution of the solar radiation and it is a methodology clearly accepted by the scientific community and with a high degree of maturity [McArthur, 1998]. In this regard, it is worth to mention that BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) has among its objectives the improvement of methods for deriving solar radiation from satellite images, and also the Experts Working Group of Task 36 of the Solar Heating and Cooling Implement Agreement of IEA (International Energy Agency) focuses on solar radiation knowledge from satellite images. 2 SOLAR RADIATION DERIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES Solar radiation derived from satellite images is based upon the establishment of a functional relationship between the solar irradiance at the Earth’s surface and the cloud index estimated from the satellite images. This relationship has been previously fitted by using high quality ground data, in such a manner that the solar irradiance-cloud index correlation can be extrapolated to any location of interest and solar radiation components can be calculated from the satellite observations for that point.
  • 6. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 6 OF 28 It has been generally accepted by the international scientific community that solar radiation estimation (SRE) from Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellite (GEO) images is a suitable tool, taking into account temporal and spatial distribution, availability of representative time series, to estimate solar resource at locations where no previous ground historic radiometric records are available. The use of estimations from satellites is considered better than nearby ground measurements when they are separated by more than 3km from the location where the solar plant is planned. GEO satellites orbit in the earth's equatorial plane at a mean height of 36,000 km. At this height, the satellite's orbital period matches the rotation of the Earth, so the satellite seems to stay stationary over the same point on the equator. Since the field of view of a satellite in geostationary orbit is fixed, it always views the same geographical area, day and night. This is ideal for making regular sequential observations of cloud patterns over a region with visible and infrared radiometers. High temporal resolution and constant viewing angles are the defining features of geostationary imagery. Currently, IrSOLaV uses GEO satellites images from Meteosat First Generation (MFG-IODC), Meteosat Second Generation (MSG-PRIME), Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Multi- functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT-PACIFIC). Figure 1. Global coverage of geostationary satellites around the Earth. The main advantages in the use of images from GEO satellites are the following:  The GEO satellite sees simultaneously large areas of terrain, allowing it to know the spatial distribution of the information, as well as, determine the relative differences between one zone to the other.  When the information available (satellite images) belongs to the same area, it is possible to study the evolution of the values in one pixel of the image, or in a specific geographic zone. It is possible to know past situations when there are satellites images recorded and stored previously.
  • 7. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 7 OF 28 2.1 Brief summary of IrSOLaV methodology to estimate solar radiation from satellite images The methodology of IrSOLaV uses two main inputs to compute hourly solar irradiance: the geostationary satellite images and the information about the attenuating properties of the atmosphere. The former consists of one image per hour offering information related with the cloud cover characteristics. The latter is basically information on the daily Linke turbidity which is a very representative parameter to model the attenuating processes which affects solar radiation on its path through the atmosphere, mainly the aerosol optical depth and water vapor column. The methodology applied has undoubtedly been accepted by the scientific community and its main usefulness is in the estimation of the spatial distribution of solar radiation over a region. Its maturity is guaranteed by initiatives like the establishment in 2004 of a new IEA (International Energy Agency) task known as “Solar Radiation Knowledge from Satellite Images” or the fact that the measuring solar radiation network BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) promoted by WMO (World Meteorological Organization) has as its main objectives for the improvement of solar radiation estimation from satellite images models. Various methods for deriving solar radiation from satellite images were developed during ’80. One of them was the method Heliosat-1 (Cano, 1982; Cano et al., 1986; Diabaté et al., 1988) which could be one of the most accurate (Grüter et al., 1986; Raschke et al., 1991). The method Heliosat-2 (Rigollier et al., 2001; Rigollier et al., 2004) integrates the knowledge gained by these various exploitations of the original method and its varieties in a coherent and thorough way. Both versions are based in the computation of a cloud index (n) from the comparison between the reflectance, or apparent albedo, observed by the spaceborne sensor (ρ), the apparent albedo of the brightest clouds (ρc) and the apparent albedo of the ground under clear skies (ρg): n      g   c   g  1 (1) For the estimation of radiation at ground level the method Heliosat-1 uses an empirical adjusted relation between the cloud index and the clearness index (KT). The new Heliosat-2 method uses a relation between the cloud index and the clear sky index (KC) defined as the ratio of the global irradiance (G) to the global irradiance under clear sky (Gclear). G KC  (2) Gclear
  • 8. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 8 OF 28 The Heliosat method deals with atmospheric and cloud extinction separately. As a first step the irradiance under clear skies is calculated by using the ESRA/SOLIS/REST2 clear sky model (Rigollier et al., 2000), where daily values of Linke turbidity factor, AOD at 550nm and Water vapor content of the atmosphere are the parameters required for the composition of the atmosphere. The following relationship between the cloud index and the clear sky index is then used for the global solar radiation determination (Rigollier and Wald, 1998; Fontoynont et al., 1998): n   0.2 , KC  1.2  0.2  n  0.8 , KC  1  n (3) 0.8  n  1.1 , KC  2.0667  3.6667 n  1.6667 n 2 1.1  n , KC  0.05 Solar radiation estimation from satellite images offered is made from a modified version of the renowned model Heliosat-3, developed and validated by CIEMAT with more than thirty radiometric stations in the Iberian Peninsula. Over this first development, IrSOLaV has generated a tool fully operational which is applied on a database of satellite images available with IrSOLaV (temporal and spatial resolution of the data depends on the satellite covering the region under study). It is worthwhile to point out that tuning-up and fitting of the original methodology in different locations of the World have been performed and validated with local data from radiometric stations installed in the region of interest. This way, it may be considered that the treatment of the information from satellite images offered by IrSOLaV is an exclusive service. Even though the different research groups working in this field are making use of the same core methodologies, there are several characteristics that differ depending on the specific objectives pursued. Therefore, the main differences between the IrSOLaV/CIEMAT and others, like the ones applied by PVGis or Helioclim are:  Filtering of images and terrestrial data. Images and data used for the fitting and relations are thoroughly filtered with procedures developed specifically for this purpose.  Selection of albedo for clear sky days. The algorithm used to select albedos for clear sky days provides a daily sequence that is different for every year; however the other methodologies use a unique monthly value.  Introduction of characteristic variables. The relation developed by IrSOLaV/CIEMAT includes new variables characterizing the climatology of the site and the geographical location, with a significant improvement of the results obtained for global and direct solar radiation.  Global horizontal irradiance is estimated by relating the clear sky index with the cloud index, the cloud index distribution and the air mass (Zarzalejo et al., 2009).
  • 9. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 9 OF 28  Ground albedo is estimated by a moving window of about 20 days that comprises images of the central instants in terms of co-scattering angle (Zarzalejo, 2005). This method allows the daily computation of the ground albedo.  Direct normal irradiance for non-clear sky situations is calculated using the Louche conversion function (Louche et al., 1991) and DirIndex model {Perez, 1992 1000439 /id} which takes into account daily values of AOD at 550nm and water vapour column obtained from MODIS satellite and MACC database.  Clear sky days are identified (Polo et al., 2009) and estimated separately by the ESRA transmittance model (Rigollier et al., 2000). Besides, as some clear sky models behave better in some locations and other depending in local climatic conditions of the sites, SOLIS and REST2 clear sky models are also tested.  Input of daily of values of Aerosol optical depth (AOD) 500nm and column water vapor content estimated from MODIS satellite for the period from 2000 to 2012. The resolution of the dataset is 1º by 1º and it has a global coverage.  Daily Linke turbidity factor is estimated by the Ineichen correlation from AOD at 550 nm and water vapour obtained from MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite (Ineichen, 2008) for ESRA model.  Application of a method to fit the angular dependence of the sun and satellite and the ground albedo estimations {Polo, 2012 1000423 /id}. In classical Heliosat-3 method the potential overestimation of cloud index under some situations for high reflective (deserted regions mainly) sites could lead to noticeable underestimation of the surface solar irradiance. The uncertainty of the estimation comparing with hourly ground pyranometric measurements is expressed in terms of the relative root mean squared error (RMSE). Different assessments and benchmarking tests can been found at the available literature concerning the use of satellite images (Meteosat and GOES) on different geographic sites and using different models [Pinker y Ewing, 1985; Zelenka et al., 1999; Pereira et al., 2003; Rigollier et al., 2004; Lefevre et al., 2007]. The uncertainty for hourly values is estimated to be around 20-25% RMSE and in a daily basis the uncertainty of the models used is around 13-17%. It is important to mention here the contribution given by Zelenka in terms of distributing the origin of this error, concluding that 12-13% is produced by the methodology itself converting satellite information into radiation data and a relevant fraction of 7-10% because of the uncertainty of the ground measurements used for the comparison. In addition Zelenka estimates that the error of using nearby ground stations beyond 5 km reaches 15%. Because of that his conclusion is that the use of hourly data from satellite images is more accurate than using information from nearby stations located more than 5 km far from the site.
  • 10. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 10 OF 28 The IrSOLaV methodology is based on the work developed in CIEMAT by the group of Solar Radiation Studies. The model has been assessed for 30 Spanish sites with the following uncertainty results for global horizontal irradiance:  About 12% RMSE for hourly values  Less than 10% for daily values  Less than 5% for annual and monthly means 2.2 Validation of hourly values of GHI data This validation section belongs to the scientific publication {Zarzalejo, 2009 1000137 /id}. Simultaneous data of satellite derived cloud index and hourly global irradiance on ground-based stations are used for model development and assessment for 28 locations in Spain. The geographic information of the radiometric stations is listed in Table 1. The time period covered is from January 1994 to December 2004. In the cloud index estimations the HRI-VIS channel images of Meteosat are used. The spatial resolution is 2.5 x 2.5 km at nadir and the temporal resolution is 30 minutes (EUMETSAT, 2001). After an exhaustive quality analysis of the simultaneous data around 370000 hourly data pairs are available for fitting and assessment the new models (Zarzalejo, 2006). The whole data set is randomly separated into two groups, 80% for fitting the models and 20% for assessment. Table 1. Geographic information of the Spanish radiometric stations # Station Latitude Longitude Height # Station Latitude Longitude Height (m) (m) 1 Cádiz 36.50 ºN 6.27 ºW 15 15 Barcelona 41.38 ºN 2.20 ºE 25 2 Málaga 36.72 ºN 4.48 ºW 61 16 Soria 41.60 ºN 2.50 ºW 1090 3 Almería (CMT) 36.85 ºN 2.38 ºW 29 17 Zaragoza 41.63 ºN 0.92 ºW 250 4 Huelva 37.28 ºN 6.92 ºW 19 18 Lérida 41.63 ºN 0.60 ºE 202 5 Murcia 38.00 ºN 1.17 ºW 69 19 Valladolid 41.65 ºN 4.77 ºW 740 6 Badajoz 38.88 ºN 7.02 ºW 190 20 La Rioja 42.43 ºN 2.38 ºW 365 7 Ciudad Real 38.98 ºN 3.92 ºW 628 21 Pontevedra 42.58 ºN 8.80 ºW 15 8 Albacete 39.00 ºN 1.87 ºW 674 22 León 42.58 ºN 5.65 ºW 914 9 Cáceres 39.47 ºN 6.33 ºW 405 23 Álava 42.85 ºN 2.65 ºW 508 10 Valencia 39.48 ºN 0.38 ºW 23 24 Vizcaya 43.30 ºN 2.93 ºW 41 11 Toledo 39.88 ºN 4.05 ºW 516 25 Guipúzcoa 43.30 ºN 2.03 ºW 259 12 Madrid 40.45 ºN 3.72 ºW 680 26 Asturias 43.35 ºN 5.87 ºW 348 13 Tarragona 40.82 ºN 0.48 ºE 44 27 La Coruña 43.37 ºN 8.42 ºW 67 14 Salamanca 40.95 ºN 5.92 ºW 803 28 Cantabria 43.48 ºN 3.80 ºW 79
  • 11. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 11 OF 28 Relative mean bias error and root mean squared error of IrSOLaV/CIEMAT is 0.31% MBE and 17.21% RMSE. Table 2. Statistical errors of hourly time series estimated from meteosat satellite against ground measured data # Station MBE(%) RMSE(%) 1 Cádiz -0.06 12.24 2 Málaga 1.40 12.60 3 Almería (CMT) 1.20 13.11 4 Huelva -1.04 14.59 5 Murcia 13.69 30.08 6 Badajoz 3.51 15.03 7 Ciudad Real 0.63 13.89 8 Albacete -0.24 16.85 9 Cáceres 1.08 16.39 10 Valencia 0.88 18.04 11 Toledo 0.61 15.16 12 Madrid 1.17 13.65 13 Tarragona 1.33 15.09 14 Salamanca -0.04 15.17 15 Barcelona 5.62 24.22 16 Soria 0.17 22.07 17 Zaragoza 0.25 13.47 18 Lérida -0.42 26.18 19 Valladolid 1.52 14.11 20 La Rioja 0.59 13.84 21 Pontevedra 0.21 16.68 22 León -0.53 20.93 23 Álava -0.66 21.37 24 Vizcaya 0.42 18.35 25 Guipúzcoa -0.37 27.04 26 Asturias -0.12 24.63 27 La Coruña -1.94 25.64 28 Cantabria -0.21 28.75 MEAN 0.93 18.85 3 SATELLITE COVERAGE There are two main satellite orbits: Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellites (GEO) and Low Earth Orbiting Satellites (LEO). GEO satellites hover over a single point at an altitude of about 36,000 kilometers and to maintain constant height and momentum, a geostationary satellite must be located over the equator. LEO satellites travel in a circular orbit moving from pole to pole, collecting data in a
  • 12. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 12 OF 28 swath beneath them as the earth rotates on its axis. In this way, a polar orbiting satellite can “see” the entire planet twice in a 24 hour period. GEO satellites orbit in the earth's equatorial plane at a mean height of 36,000 km. At this height, the satellite's orbital period matches the rotation of the Earth, so the satellite seems to stay stationary over the same point on the equator. Since the field of view of a satellite in geostationary orbit is fixed, it always views the same geographical area, day and night. This is ideal for making regular sequential observations of cloud patterns over a region with visible and infrared radiometers. High temporal resolution and constant viewing angles are the defining features of geostationary imagery. Currently, IrSOLaV uses GEO satellites images from Meteosat First Generation (Meteosat-7), Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) and GOES as well as atmospheric data from Terra and Aqua Polar (LEO) satellites. The main advantages in the use of images from GEO satellites are the following: • The GEO satellite sees simultaneously large areas of terrain, allowing it to know the spatial distribution of the information, as well as, determine the relative differences between one zone to the other • When the information available (satellite images) belongs to the same area, it is possible to study the evolution of the values in one pixel of the image, or in a specific geographic zone. • It is possible to know past situations when there are satellite images recorded and stored previously. IrSOLaV has a database of satellite images of excellent quality and updated by a receiving station. The new images received are filtered before its storage in a fully automatic process. The data warehouse of IrSOLaV is composed of the following satellite images which covers different regions of the planet: MFG: The Meteosat First Generation (MFG) are a set of satellites which provides the Indian Ocean Data Coverage (IODC) service covering the region shown in the centered image further down. These set of satellites were previously located over the position 0º of latitude covering Europe, Africa, Arabian Peninsula and some parts of Brazil (see figure further down on the right). The current near real-time data are rectified to 57.50 E and it provides imagery data 24 hours a day from the three spectral channels of the main instrument, the Meteosat Visible and InfraRed Imager (MVIRI), every 30 minutes. The three channels are in the visible, infrared, and water vapor regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The IrSOLaV-CIEMAT database stores MFG images for IODC from 1999 to the present and also for the latitude 0 degrees (previous position) for the period from 1994 to 2005.
  • 13. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 13 OF 28 MSG: The Meteosat Second Generation satellite is a significantly enhanced system to the previous version of Meteosat (MFG). MSG consists of a series of four geostationary meteorological satellites that operate consecutively. The MSG system provides accurate weather monitoring data through its primary instrument the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), which has the capacity to observe the Earth in 12 spectral channels. The temporal resolution of the satellite is 15 minutes and the spatial resolution is 1km at Nadir Position (over latitude 0 and longitude 0). The radiometric and geometric non-linearity errors of the imagery data are corrected to solve any mistakes in the acquisition from the sensor. The data are accompanied with the appropriate ancillary information that allows the user to calculate the geographical position and radiance of any pixel. The IrSOLaV-CIEMAT database stores MSG images from 2006 to the current period (latitude 0 deg). GOES (The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite): The United States of America operates two meteorological satellites in geostationary orbit over the equator. Each satellite views almost a third of the Earth's surface: one monitors North and South America and most of the Atlantic Ocean, the other North America and the Pacific Ocean basin. GOES-12 (or GOES-East) is positioned at 75º W longitude on the equator, while GOES-11 (or GOES-West) is positioned at 135º W longitude on the equator. Both operate together to produce a full-face picture of the Earth, day and night. Coverage extends approximately from 20º W longitude to 165º E longitude. The GOES satellites are able to observe the Earth disk with five spectral channels. The IrSOLaV-CIEMAT database contain GOES images from 2000 to the present. MODIS: The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer is a key instrument aboard of the Terra (EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. The orbit of Terra around the Earth is timed so that it passes from North to South across the equator in the morning, while Aqua passes from South to North over the equator in the afternoon. Terra and Aqua view the entire Earth's surface with a frequency from 1 to 2 days, acquiring data in 36 spectral bands, or groups of wavelengths (see MODIS Technical Specifications on NASA web). These data improve our understanding of global dynamics and processes occurring on the ground, oceans, and lower atmosphere. MODIS is playing a vital role in the development of validated, global, interactive Earth system models able to predict global change accurately enough to assist policy makers in making sound decisions concerning the protection of our environment.
  • 14. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 14 OF 28 The effect of the atmospheric turbidity on solar radiation is applied in IrSOLaV-CIEMAT model by using the daily values of Linke Turbidity factor from MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites and daily values of AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) at 550 nm and of water vapour column. 4 METEOROLOGICAL DATA FROM REANALYSIS MODEL Meteorological data is an important parameter to simulate correctly solar energy systems to produce electricity. IrSOLaV uses NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSV2) datasets. 4.1 Validation of solar radiatione estimates from satellite images The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as initially completed over the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009 and has been extended to March 2011. Selected CFSR time series products are available at 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.5 degree horizontal resolutions at hourly intervals by combining either 1) the analysis and one- through five-hour forecasts, or 2) the one- through six-hour forecasts, for each initialization time. For data to extend CFSR beyond March 2011, IrSOLaV will use the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSV2) datasets. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is initialized four times per day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z). NCEP upgraded CFS to version 2 on March 30, 2011. This is the same model that was used to create the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Selected CFS time series products are available at 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.5 degree horizontal resolutions at hourly intervals by combining either 1) the analysis and one- through five- hour forecasts, or 2) the one- through six-hour forecasts, for each initialization time. Beginning with January 1, 2011, these data are archived as an extension of CFSR. IrSOLaV can provide the following meteorological data:  Air Temperature 2 m height above ground (Ta)  Relative air humidity 2 m height above ground (RH)  Wind speed at 10 m height above ground (WS)  Wind direction at 10 m height above ground (WD)  Barometric Pressure at/near ground level (BP)  Precipitation (R).
  • 15. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 15 OF 28 5 CORRECTION OF ESTIMATED DATA USING GROUND MEASURED DATA Due to particular behavior of each one of the meteorological variables, the correction will be done with ad-hoc physical or statistical methods which treat in a better way the dynamic of the variable. To correct values of solar radiation estimated from satellite with ground measured radiometric data the turbidity of the site will be characterized. The rest of meteorological variables will be corrected using statistical methods. The methodologies which will be applied are explained in the next paragraphs. Linke Turbidity (TL) establishes a relationship between the real and theoretical optical depth of the atmosphere and represents the degree of transparency of the atmosphere. It is an adequate approximation when quantifying the effects of absorption and dispersion on solar radiation when trespassing the atmosphere. It can be obtained directly from measurements; however, due to the lack of them, it is generally obtained from empirical adjustments. We will obtain the Linke Turbidity from measurements registered. After this selection, we will obtain the values of TL using the inverse of a clear sky model {Ineichen, 2002 1000401 /id}. In the next figures, we show some plots of hourly values of DNI for clear sky days selected manually for a location in Spain. In the plots, measured clear sky DNI (blue), modeled clear sky DNI (green), DNI estimated from satellite MODIS TL and DirIndex model (pink) and DNI estimated from satellite MODIS TL and Louche model (red). In the figure we show also the values of daily TL estimated from MODIS satellite and estimated from measurements for all hourly values and for two hours during the day at noon hours (11:00 and 12:00 UTC). The values of TL are calculated from measurement at noon hours because there are some days which have clear sky conditions in most of the hours of the day but not in all.
  • 16. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 16 OF 28 Figure 2. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 09/01/2010. Figure 3. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 29/01/2010.
  • 17. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 17 OF 28 Figure 4. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 01/02/2010. Figure 5. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 25/02/2011.
  • 18. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 18 OF 28 Figure 6. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 02/04/2010. Figure 7. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 05/05/2009.
  • 19. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 19 OF 28 Figure 8. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a clear sky day. 18/05/2009. The next figures represent the same information as in the last one but for cloudy conditions.
  • 20. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 20 OF 28 Figure 9. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a cloudy sky day. 07/01/2011. Figure 10. TL estimated from MODIS and measurements of DNI for a cloudy sky day. 10/01/2010.
  • 21. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 21 OF 28 The next figures show some examples of the relationship between daily Linke Turbidity (TL) estimated from MODIS satellite and estimated from measurements with clear sky days for several months in a site in Spain. TL is obtained from several years of measurements: TL MEASUREMENTS TL MODIS SATELLITE 3,5 3 2,5 Linke Turbidity 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Sample days for January Figure 11. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in January
  • 22. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 22 OF 28 TL MEASUREMENTS TL MODIS SATELLITE 4 3,5 3 Linke Turbidity 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Sample days for February Figure 12. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in February TL MEASUREMENTS TL MODIS SATELLITE 7 6 5 Linke Turbidity 4 3 2 1 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 Sample days for June Figure 13. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in June
  • 23. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 23 OF 28 Figure 14. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in July Figure 15. Daily values of TL estimated from MODIS and from measurements with clear sky days in October
  • 24. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 24 OF 28 The deviations observed in the last figures are due to the fact that daily values of water vapor and AOD at 550nm obtained from MODIS satellite are representative of an area of 1º by 1º and local effects on constituents in the atmosphere are not taken into account. This way, the deviations between TL estimated from MODIS and measurements will be corrected using non-linear models. After characterization of Linke Turbidity, the correction coefficients will be applied to the whole series of daily turbidity dataset estimated MODIS which has a period from year 2001 to the present. Finally, using corrected input of Linke Turbidity into IrSOLaV method to estimate solar radiation from satellite images the whole data will be reprocessed for the 12 years of data to obtain corrected characterized local values of Global Horizontal (GHI), Direct Normal (DNI) and diffuse irradiance (DIF). This process will be done in 4 phases: after having 3, 6 , 9 and 12 months of radiometric measured data. This way, values of TL, and subsequently radiometric estimations, will be corrected only for the whole period of years (12 years) and in those months where measured data are available. In conclusion, only when one year of measurements is available the correction will be applied to the whole time series of 12 years of solar radiation (GHI, DNI and DIF) estimations from satellite images. 6 TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA (TMY2) IrSOLaV has the methodology to offer time series of solar irradiance for: • Europe: from 1994 to the present (MFG + MSG). • Africa: from 2006 to the present (MSG). • America: from 2000 to the present (GOES). • Asia: from 1999 to the present (IODC). The analysis of solar energy systems are based on the detailed study and simulation of solar energy power plants to evaluate thermal and electrical production of the plant using the solar irradiance long- term estimations from satellite. For any specific site, the process of obtaining solar irradiance time series includes: a complete statistical analysis of the satellite imagery database, analysis of the monthly and annual solar irradiance satellite estimations comparing them with ground data available in the zone nearby. The time series that can be delivered are global horizontal (GHI) and direct normal irradiances DNI (with tracking in one and two
  • 25. IRSOLAV METHODOLOGY PAGE 25 OF 28 axis if required). Besides, to characterize the long-term dynamics of solar radiation and meteorological variables for any location we provide typical meteorological years (TMY). Data of solar radiation for any location is provided in electronic format (Excel, ASCII, EPW, TMY2 or any other format requested).
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