1. The document summarizes research applying situational action theory (SAT) to different populations and crime types in Belgium between 2004-2016. 2. The key findings provide support for SAT's core hypotheses regarding the person-environment interaction and perception-choice process, as well as the conditional effects of controls. 3. However, the causes of individual propensities and selections vary between types of crimes, requiring adaptation of SAT's developmental-ecological model to specific contexts.

1. Prof. Dr. Lieven J.R. Pauwels
t. +32 9 264 68 37
f. +32 9 264 84 94
Lieven.Pauwels @UGent.be
Recent Applications of SAT
Panel Session on Situational Action by
Nina-Katri Gustafsson (Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge)
Jenni Barton-Crosby (Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge)
Mandy Lau (Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge)
Lieven Pauwels (Session Chair-IRCP-Ghent University)

2. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
General introduction: SAT
2
Perception of
Alternatives
Choice
Moral values
and Emotions
Executive
Functions
Act of Crime
(Rule-breaking)
Other
Opportunity Friction
Monitoring
Moral
Judgement
Self-control
ProvocationTemptation
Deterrence
INDIVIDUAL
CHARACTERSITICS
(Propensity)
BEHAVIOUR
SETTING ACT
SITUATION
(motivation)
Wikström, 2005

3. Situation = Person x Setting Affects:
___________________________________________________
Temptation Desires (needs), Opportunity Motivation
Commitments (goal-directed
Provocation Sensitivity Friction attention)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Moral Filter Personal Morals Moral Norms Perception
(rules of conduct (shared rules of Action
moral emotions) of conduct) Alternatives
Controls Ability to Norm enforcement Process of
exercise (through process Choice
self-control of deterrence) (when
(intoxication, deliberating)
high stress,
strong emotions)
___________________________________________________
Propensity x Exposure = Action
3
Source: Wikström et al. (2012)

4. Area Social
Conditions
(Culture and
Structure)
Area
Crime
Rates
Person in
Setting
Action
(Acts of
crime)
Ecological
Mechanisms
(Social Selection)
Situational
Mechanism
(Perception-
Choice process)
Transformational
Mechanisms
(Aggregation)
Correlation
(Prediction)
Social
Emergence
Social
Interactions
(Self-selection)
Person
Person
Emergence
1. Crime is ultimately an outcome of a perception-choice process.
2. This perception-choice process is initiated and guided by relevant aspects
of the person-environment interaction.
3. Processes of social and self-selection place kinds of people in kinds of
settings (creating particular kinds of interactions)
4. What kinds of people and what kinds of environments (settings)
are present in a jurisdiction is a result of historical processes of social
and personal emergence.
3
3
14
4
2
Historical/developmental processes
Contemporaneous processes

5. Prof. Dr. Lieven J.R. Pauwels
t. +32 9 264 68 37
f. +32 9 264 84 94
Lieven.Pauwels @UGent.be
How General are the Key Mechanisms of
SAT?
From Child Antisocial Behaviour, Adolescent Offending and
Substance Use to Student Participation in Violent
Extremism. An Overview of Research Evidence from Belgian
Studies

6. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
• Outline of the presentation:
• Evaluation of SAT based on ≠ Belgian studies (2004-
2016)
• SAT is a complex integrative theory, therefore we
discuss the findings by “key ideas”
• Specific attention:
• Various populations,
• Different measures,
• Different crime types: juvenile delinquency (general
scales and subscales), political violence, the use of force
by police officers
• Randomized scenario violence
General introduction
6

7. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
• Self-report studies of students, young adolescents & children
• Antwerp Youth Survey (data collection) N: 2486
• Sint-Niklaas Youth Survey (data colletion: 2007) N: 1500
• Ostend Youth Survey N: 1200
• Ghent Elementary School Survey (children)N: 778
• Radimed Online Student Survey (violent extremism and moral
support for terrorism) N:
• Online student survey of traffic offenses
• Randomized Vignette Study (“factorial survey”) Just Finished
• Study of Violence by police officers Ongoing (PhD Jannie Noppe,
IRCP-Ghent University)
Data
7

8. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
• (1) The PEA-hypothesis (the principle of
moral correspondence): the situational
model
• (2) The conditional effect of controls
• (3) The perception-choice process
(randomized vignette study)
• (4) The causes of the causes: explaining
propensity & exposure: the developmental
ecological model
Structure of the presentation
8

9. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
PEA-hypothesis Antwerp data (adolescents,
grade 7-8)
9
Stability across delinquency scales
R: self-reported cannabis use
L: Overall offending scale

10. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
PEA-Hypothesis: Adolescents (grade 7,8)
10
Sint-Niklaas (2007) Ostend (2010)

11. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
PEA-hypothesis Political Violence (young
adults, student survey, 2013)
11

12. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
PEA-hypothesis (moral beliefs beliefs and
emotions) in elementary school children
Dependent variables:
• Violence
• Vandalism
• Property crime
Population:
• elementary school children
• (2012)
12

13. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
PEA-Hypothesis and the use of violence by
police officers
13

14. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
PEA-Hypothesis and the use of violence by
police officers
Ongoing PhD
study by Jannie Noppe
(preliminary results)
14

15. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
The PEA-hypothesis is confirmed combining
randomized scenario responses and survey questions
on exposure (lifestyle risk), student survey-2015
Ongoing study
(preliminary results)
15

16. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effect of controls (1):morality & the
ability to exercise self-control: Antwerp data
16

17. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effect of controls (1):morality & the
ability to exercise self-control: other Belgian
cities
17
Ostend survey Sint-Niklaas survey

18. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effect of controls (1):
ability to exercise self-control: radomized vignette
study
18

19. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effects of controls (1): violent
extremism
19

20. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effects of controls (1): violent
extremism
20

21. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effects of controls (1): violent
extremism
21

22. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effects of controls (1): traffic
offenses by university students
• Drunk driving
• Speeding
• Breaking parking restriction
22

23. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effects of controls (2): conditional
effect of perceived deterrence
Dependent variable:
Juvenile delinquency
Population: youths, grade 7 & 8
Results stable across dimensions of
perceived deterrence (perceived
risk of apprehension / perceived
trouble)
Hirtenlehner, Pauwels & Mesko,
2014)
23

24. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
Conditional effects of controls (2): conditional
effect of perceived deterrence
Dependent variable:
Traffic offenses
Population: university students
24

25. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
SAT: The perception choice process: scenario
criminogeneity & propensitysituational model
Source: Haar & Wikström (2010)
INDIVIDUAL Setting Action
Deterrence:
Monitoring agents versus no monitoring agents
Perception of alternatives
Choice processes
Violent act
No violent
act
Situation =
F (P*E)
Morality
Self-control
25
Provocation in setting

26. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
The perception choice process: scenario
criminogeneity & propensity
26
When propensity is low,
the violent scenario is not chosen

27. research publications consultancy conferences
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Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
The perception choice process: scenario
criminogeneity & propensity
27

28. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
• Key idea in SAT:
• Causes of the causes are causal mechanisms that can explain why
some kind of people see crime as an alternative
• What are the causes of crime propensity?
• What are the causes of the ability to exercise self-control
• What are the causes of individual and social selection?
• …
Causes of the causes
(“developmental-ecological model”)
28

29. Micro-place
disorder
Parental
monitoring
School
social bond
Low self-
control
-0.31 -0.26
0.34
-0.32
0.21
-0.16
Poor
morality
0.24
-0.25
-0.25
0.34
Ostend Early Adolescence School Survey (2010)
29

30. Micro-place
Unsupervised
youth
Parental
attachment
School
social bond
Poor
morality
-0.11 -0.18
-0.22
0.53
-0.11
Sint-Niklaas Early Adolescence School Survey (2007)
Parental
monitoring
0.22
0.25
-0.25
Low self-
control
0.30
0.25
0.11
0.24
-0.16
30

31. Micro-place
Disorder
Parental
attachment
School
social bond
Low self-
control
-0.16
0.16
0.32
0.42
-0.18
Antwerp Early Adolescence School Survey (2005)
Parental
monitoring
0.26
0.20
-0.24
Poor
morality
-0.18
-0.28
0.23
-0.28
31

32. Perc.
Discrim
Social
Bonds
Low
proc
just
Lack of
respect
Relig.
author.
Low
Legitim
Low
self-
control
Moral
support
terrorism
Active
Exposure
Political
violence
0.22
0.50
0.18
0.25
0.13
0.16
0.37
-0.49
0.08
0.35
0.48
0.34
0.78
0.45
0.35
Anomia
0.26
0.14
0.16
0.19
-0.19
0.28
0.13
-0.14
0.25
0.10
-0.56
Causes of the causes model
External events and perceptions trigger moral
support for terrorism, causes self-selection
32

33. Property
crime
Violence
Vandalism
Morality
(beliefs
+feelings)
School social
bond
Parental
control
Parental
attachment
0.12
0.28
0.31
0.41
0.65
-0.50
0.59
0.320.20
Morality also Key Mediator of the Effect of Social Bonds on Child Delinquency
-0.26
-0.65
-0.19
33

34. research publications consultancy conferences
www.ircp.org
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
+32 9 264 68 37
Lieven.PAuwels@UGent.be
• Stable patterns for
• PEA-model: the environment does not act, it triggers propensities
• Conditional effects of controls: only those that have poor moral standards make use of their
ability to exercise self-control and are guided by their fear of getting caught
• Perception-choice process (randomized scenario study-) limited to
violence) but results are replicated
• Causes of the causes: general idea behind this part of the theory holds,
but: the causes of the causes is the most complex element in the theory!
• Some causes of the causes vary by explanandum (violent extremism ≠ juvenile delinquency):
think out of the box while at the same time using a similar framework
• But the general principle is there: moral beliefs and feelings act as mediators for (events and
other cognitions, emotions,…
• What are the causes of individual and social selection?
• BUT: applications in other areas (e.g. violent extremism, work place deviance, …) are welcomed
• General principles need to be translated to / applied in specific contexts- important for holistic
prevention (Bjørgo, 2015)
Conclusion and discussion
34

35. www.ircp.org
Contact
Lieven J.R. Pauwels
t. +32 9 264 68 37
f. +32 9 264 84 94
Lieven.Pauwels@UGent.be
IRCP
Ghent University
Universiteitstraat 4
B – 9000 Ghent