1.
How We Used Data to Win
the Presidential Election
Dan Siroker
dan@siroker.com

2.
Barack Obama
David Plouffe
Correspondence Field Policy Operations
...
Communications New Media Paid Media Finance
Marketing Email Blog Analytics Design Video Organizing

3.
Results

4.
Popular Vote Electoral Vote
Other (1%)
1,865,617
McCain
173
McCain (46%)
Obama (53%)
59,934,814
69,456,897
Obama
365
Source: Federal Election Commission

5.
McCain Obama
3 100 150
2.4 80 120
1.8 60 90
Millions
1.2 40 60
0.6 20 30
0 0 0
Facebook Friends YouTube Video Views Unique Website Visitors
Source: Facebook,YouTube, and Google Trends

6.
Unique Website Visitors
Source: Google Trends

7.
Money Raised
PRIMARY GENERAL
OBAMA
JANUARY JANUARY JANUARY
‘07 ‘08 CLINTON
McCAIN
‘09
A
EL
N
N
EC
O
TI
U
N
O
C
N
EM
D
AY
EN
T
Source: Stephen Geer

8.
Money Raised
McCain
$201 million
Obama
$656 million
Note: Does not include federal funds
Source: Federal Election Commission

9.
Money Raised
Obama (Offline)
McCain $156 million
$201 million
Obama (Online)
$500 million
Note: Does not include federal funds
Source: Washington Post and Federal Election Commission

10.
Lessons Learned

11.
Lesson #1:
Define success.

12.
Chuck Kennedy-Pool/Getty Images

13.
Lesson #1:
Define success.

14.
Lesson #1:
Define success .

15.
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

16.
Website Email signup Raise money

17.
cost per sign up $ per
click rate recipient
Website Email signup Raise money

18.
cost per sign up $ per
click rate recipient
Website Email signup Raise money

19.
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

20.
Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

21.
Media
Button

22.
Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button: Media:
1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image
2. Learn More 2. Family Image
3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image
4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video

23.
Button: “Sign Up”

24.
Button: “Learn More”

25.
Button: “Join Us Now”

26.
Button: “Sign Up Now”

27.
Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button: Media:
1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image
2. Learn More 2. Family Image
3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image
4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video

28.
Media: “Get Involved”

29.
Media: “Family”

30.
Media: “Change”

31.
Media: “Barack’s Video”

32.
Media: “Springfield Video”

33.
Media: “Sam’s Video”

34.
Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button: Media:
1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image
2. Learn More 2. Family Image
3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image
4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video

35.
Splash page experiment results

36.
Splash page experiment results

37.
Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

38.
Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

39.
Donation button experiment results
Never Signed Up, Previously
Variations Signed Up Never Donated Donated
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
+2.3% +27.8% +16.3%
-27.8% N/A N/A
+15.2% -24.6% +11.9%
+8.5% +2.9% +18.4%

40.
Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

41.
Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

42.
TextMate
OpenReports
DbVisualizer

43.
Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

44.
Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

45.
Courtesy: Bradley Portnoy Taken: August 27th, 2008 9:42PM

46.
Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

47.
Lessons Learned
1. Define quantifiable success metrics.
2. Question assumptions.
3. Divide and conquer.
4. Don’t re-invent the wheel.
5. Take advantage of circumstances.

48.
Case Study

49.
Case Study
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

50.
Website Playing user Paying user

51.
Website Playing user Paying user

52.
cost per cost per revenue per
click playing user playing user
Website Playing user Paying user

53.
cost per cost per revenue per
click playing user playing user
Website Playing user Paying user
9/16: $0.33 $1.15 $0.11 $19 pay-to-play
9/22: $0.17 $0.41 $0.10 $4 pay-to-play
freemium
9/28: $0.17 $0.43 $0.19
subscription

54.
Case Study
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

55.
Case Study
Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

56.
Case Study
Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

57.
Case Study
Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

58.
Case Study
Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

59.
Case Study
Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

60.
Case Study
Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

61.
Case Study
Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

62.
Case Study
Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

63.
Lessons Learned
1. Define quantifiable success metrics.
2. Question assumptions.
3. Divide and conquer.
4. Don’t re-invent the wheel.
5. Take advantage of circumstances.

64.
Dan Siroker
dan@siroker.com

65.
The Future
1. Huge data challenges.
2. More effective user segmentation.
3. Democratization of tools & strategies.