This document discusses the concept of antifragile systems, which are systems that improve and become stronger when stressed or subjected to unpredictability. The key points made are: 1) Organizations are antifragile - they improve and learn when stressed or exercised, rather than becoming fragile. 2) Planning is important but plans are not static - organizations need variation and adaptability to unpredictable changes. 3) Enforcing a single rigid practice can make an organization fragile, instead it needs flexibility and the ability to adapt.

1. © Copyright 2013 Keith D Swenson
Keith D Swenson
March 2013
Antifragile Systems for
Innovation and Learning
Organizations

2. We know what
fragility is.
But what is
the opposite?
Fragile

3. ?
Fragile Robust

4. Fragile Robust Antifragile

5. Muscles
are
Adaptive
The Body is
Antifragile

6. Learning is Adaptive

7. “The only sustainable competitive
advantage is an organization's
ability to learn faster than the
competition.”
- Peter M. Senge,
The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization

8. IT System Perfection

9. Enlightenment Bias:
- Sub-parts of a complex system
are simpler
- A stable system is made from
very hard & durable sub-parts.

10. “Stability is a Time Bomb”
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile

11. Adaptive Systems crave Exercise
Protected Exposed

12. Adaptive Systems NEED Exercise
Protected Exposed

13. Adaptive Systems NEED Exercise
Protected Exposed

14. Forests are Adaptive

15. Monocultures are Fragile

16. “Nature loves small error, humans
don’t — hence when you rely on
human judgment you are at the
mercy of a mental bias that
disfavors antifragility.”
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile

17. Enforcing a single best
practice on the organization,
can make it … fragile

18. “No plan survives contact with
the enemy.”
- Helmuth von Moltke the Elder
“Planning is essential, plans are
worthless.”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower.

19. The Planning Fallacy
“The future is uncertain –
but this uncertainty is at
the very heart of human
creativity”
- Ilya Prigogine

20. The Planning Fallacy
“In an unpredictable world,
sometimes the best
investments are those that
minimize the importance of
predictions.”
- - Gökçe Sargut and Rita Gunther McGrath

21. Seven Domains of Predictability
ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data

22. Adaptive Case Management
ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data

23. Summary
Organizations are antifragile
They improve when stressed.
They crave stress (exercise).
Planning is a part of working
Not something to be eliminated
I.T. systems should promote variation
Demo:
Enforcing a single best practice
can make organization fragile.
http://www.bpmnext.com/bpmnext-2013-presentations/
antifragile-systems-for-innovation-and-learning-organizations/

24. Keith D Swenson
Adaptive Case Management
http://social-biz.org/