What Really is AI and How will it Shape our Future?
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Presentation used for the talk at NANBEN NJ on Oct 10, 2020.
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What Really is AI and How will it Shape our Future?
- 1. What Really is AI and How will it Shape our Future? Ganes Kesari NANBEN NJ 10 10 2020
- 2. 2 INTRODUCTION Ganes Kesari Co-founder & Chief Decision Scientist “Simplify Data Science for all”100+ Clients Insights as Stories Help start, apply and adopt Data Science @kesaritweets /gkesari
- 3. 3 WHAT COMES TO MIND WHEN YOU THINK OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? Sources: NYT 1940, NYT 1980, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age NYT, 1940 1960s The Age, 1982 NYT, 1980 The end of jobs.. and humanity?
- 4. 4 AI IS NOT A COOL NEW TOY! It might as well share its Diamond Jubilee.. ..with the Queen!
- 6. 6 What’s driving the AI Craze?
- 7. 7 Poll #1 What’s your level of familiarity with AI? (choose one) • New to AI • Have some conceptual understanding • Have a technical understanding • Have worked in AI
- 8. 8 AI HAS A LONG HISTORY OF BEING “THE NEXT BIG THING”… Sources: Team Finland Future Watch Report 2017x-axis is not to scale
- 9. 9 WHAT’S CHANGED TODAY: TOP TRENDS DRIVING THE AI REVOLUTION Data Storage Processor Software Internet
- 10. 10 WHAT REALLY IS AI: MAKING SENSE OF THE TERMINOLOGIES Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Robotics Vision Speech ProcessingExpert Systems ... Supervised Learning Unsupervised Learning Deep Learning Reinforcement Learning … Probabilistic algorithms
- 11. 11 WHAT IS MACHINE LEARNING? A QUICK 101 New Input Desired Outcome Machine learning how to do the job Known Input Known Outcome “Programs that solve the problem” “Programs that learn to solve the problem” vs
- 12. 12 AI ALGORITHMS ARE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM HOW WE LEARN Training ..Versatile Detection!
- 13. 13 “By far, the greatest danger of Artificial Intelligence is that people conclude too early that they understand it.” - Eliezer Yudkowsky
- 14. 14 What can AI do Today?
- 15. 15 Poll #2 What’s your assessment of AI’s capability today? (choose one) • AI can beat humans in most areas • AI is better than humans in a few areas • AI is no match for humans
- 16. 16 AI CAN WRITE AN ARTICLE FOR YOU https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/08/robot-wrote-this-article-gpt-3
- 17. 17 HERE’S AN ABSTRACT FOR MY TALK TODAY, WRITTEN ENTIRELY BY AI! http://ai-writer.com/
- 18. 18 AI CAN GENERATE PICTURES FOR YOU https://www.thispersondoesnotexist.com/ https://www.instapainting.com/ai-painter Can you guess the one ‘real person’ from below? AI can ‘paint’ like an artist 1 2 3 4
- 19. 19 AI CAN SCRIPT ALTERNATE REALITIES In Event of Moon Disaster – Documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWLadJFI8Pk
- 20. 20 AI CAN PREDICT COMMODITY PRICES Problem A leading agricultural enterprise wanted price forecasts for their products in order to plan inventory release to optimize revenue. Incorrect timing was leading either to loss of revenue or unsold inventory. Gramener applied a suite of price forecasting models based on internal and external factors. The models were evaluated on multiple test datasets to select one that minimized median absolute deviation. Approach The model was able to forecast the price to an accuracy of 88%. Within the first quarter of deploying the model, the revenue uplift attributable directly to pricing was +3.2%. Outcome Gramener Commodity Price Forecasting: https://shiny.gramener.com/InventoryOptimization/
- 21. 21 AI IS BEATING HUMAN ANALYSTS AT STOCK PICKING https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3514879 • Indiana University study • 76,000 research reports • Robo-analysts produced a more balanced distribution of buy, hold and sell recommendations • They revised their reports more frequently and had fewer buy recommendations than humans • Robo-analysts outperformed their human counterparts
- 22. 22 AI IS NOW WATCHING OUT FOR FRAUD ON THE NASDAQ • A deep learning system will work alongside human analysts • Existing system issues ~1000 alerts per day • AI-driven system will detect more complex patterns, including spoofing • With humans-in-the-loop, it refines its understanding https://fortune.com/2019/10/29/machine-learning-nasdaq-spoofing-stock-trading-fraud/Picture by bfishadow on flickr
- 23. 23 DID YOU KNOW? • AI Hedge Fund • Patented evolutionary intelligence that simulates trillions of trading scenarios • Received over $143 Mn in Funding • It managed less than $100 Mn but didn’t make money • It was closed within 2 years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-07/ai-hedge-fund-sentient-is-said-to-shut-after-less-than-two-years
- 24. 24 AI IS NOT REALLY THAT SMART… YET! Gifs from Giphy: Gif1, Gif2 AI Adversarial examples: Natural - ImageNet on Synced Review; Attack – MIT CSAI on Design News
- 25. 25 “ To build truly intelligent machines, teach them cause and effect - Judea Pearl
- 26. 26 What will the Future look like?
- 27. 27 Poll #3 What do you think about a future driven by AI? (choose one) • I’m more excited about the possibilities • I’m more worried about the risks • It’s all a hype. Neither excited nor worried
- 28. 28 WHERE ARE WE HEADED: FUTURE SCENARIOS Source: Monty Barlow, Cambridge Consultants
- 29. 29 #1: AI GAINS SCARY EFFECTIVENESS https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
- 30. 30 “Mark my words, AI is far more dangerous than nukes…why do we have no regulatory oversight? - Elon Musk
- 31. 31 Gartner Hype Cycle #2: EXCITEMENT FADES, BUT SOME APPLICATIONS DELIVER Gartner AI Hype Cycle: https://www.gartner.com/document/3953603Jeremykemp at English Wikipedia
- 32. 32 “As a technologist, I see how AI and the fourth industrial revolution will impact every aspect of people’s lives. - Fei Fei Li
- 33. 33 #3: BUBBLE BURSTS: DISILLUSIONMENT SETS IN Source: The Verge, The Guardian, BBC The Verge, Mar 2019 The Guardian, Jul 2018 BBC, Jan 2020
- 34. 34 “Before we work on artificial intelligence why don’t we do something about natural stupidity? - Steve Polyak
- 35. 35 What are companies in the AI Ecosystem?
- 36. 36 Poll #4 How much of your portfolio would you be comfortable allocating to AI companies? (choose one) • 0% • 1-5% • 6-15% • 16-25% • 25%+
- 37. 37 THE AI ECOSYSTEM Data Storage Processor Software Cloud (overlaps with others) AI Producers AI Consumers Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI.. Netflix, Tesla, iRobot, Twitter, Apple, Uber.. Cloudera, Splunk, MongoDB.. Dell, NetApp, HPE, Seagate, Western Digital.. Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Micron, Synopsys, AMAT, GraphCore.. Alteryx, Tencent, Palantir, Elastic, Accenture, IBM.. Snowflakes, Cloudflare.. Unlisted Companies
- 38. 38 STOCK REPORT FROM BLOOMBERG Source: Bloomberg
- 39. 39 QUICK RECAP • Brief history • Intuition • Why now • Singularity • Midway • Bubble burst • Capabilities • Examples • Limitations • Producers • Consumers • Ecosystem What’s the future? The AI Ecosystem What can AI do today? What’s driving the AI craze?
- 40. 40 “ AI is the new electricity. - Andrew Ng
- 41. 41 THANK YOU! gkesari.substack.comgkesari.com/nanben Subscribe to my newsletter Download today’s presentation @kesaritweets in/gkesari gramener.com