The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice: Implications for Food Security, Globalization and Environmental Sustainability
1. The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice:
Implications for Food Security, Globalization,
and Environmental Sustainability
Joachim von Braun
Director General, IFPRI
World Rice Research Conference
Tokyo, Japan, November 4, 2004
2. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
3. The role of rice at a crossroad
Cultural roots, poverty,
locale tastes and production
Globalization, new science, new tastes
4. Main questions
What patterns of rice demand in the
future?
What future of rice technology?
Why is rice not very affected by
globalization and will this remain so?
What future role of government and
private sector in the rice systems?
5. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
6. Rice and Food Security
Percentage of calories from rice in diet
1970 1980 1990 2001
Asia 38 36 35 31
South America 11 11 12 11
Africa 5 7 7 8
United States 1 1 2 2
European Union 1 1 1 2
World 20 19 21 21
Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)
7. Changing demand for rice
1. At higher incomes:
people diversify diet away from rice,
shift towards higher quality of rice.
2. Population growth increases the demand
for rice,
3. Growing urbanization lowers demand
for rice
4. Prices matter for the poor
9. Rice and poverty
Rice consumption and production are closely
linked to poverty
Rice as agent of change to get out of poverty
Rice is the main staple food of the poor
Rice is a major source of income and
employment for rural people, especially in Asia
Rice is healthy, but can become more so: bio-
fortified rice to improve the quality of the diet
of the poor
10. Rice research reduces poverty
India China
Number of
poor reduced
from rice
research
(million)
Reduction
as a % of
total poor
(%)
Number of
poor reduced
from rice
research
(million)
Reduction
as a % of
total poor
(%)
1991 4.9 2.1 5.2 5.5
1999 3.1 1.9 1.5 4.5
Source: Fan et al. IFPRI 2003
12. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
13. Production and world price trends
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000White Broken Rice, Thai A1
Super, f.o.b Bangkok
Production (milled)
Source: USDA PS&D Database (2004); and FAO Commodities
and Trade Division (2004)
14. Distribution of rice ecosystems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AsiaLatinAmerica
Africa
Australia
USA
Europe
W
orld
Deepwater
Upland
Rainfed lowland
Irrigated
Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)
15. Environmental Issues
Water use efficiency of irrigated rice is low,
requiring large amounts of water
Pesticides and fertilizer, loss of biodiversity,
pests, depletion of natural soil fertility
Complex interactions with climate change and
land use
16. Yield patterns and developments
The potential to increase yield in rainfed
ecosystems is still vast (positive impact on
poorest farmers in low income countries)
Important scientific breakthroughs have enabled
less favored areas to improve productivity (e.g.
IRRI’s drought tolerant varieties, hybrid rice in
China, and NERICA in Africa)
17. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
18. Rice: multiple functions of a strategic
commodity in a difficult market
Due to its importance in the diet of the poor
and main source of income for farmers
Rice markets are thin, concentrated, volatile:
Governments intervene to avoid instability
Historically, policies maintained stable
prices for consumers in urban areas and
subsidize farmers
19. Rise of the private sector
Activities traditionally carried put by
government are increasingly being transferred
to the private sector, e.g. stockholding
International trade activities are moving
towards private traders,
The influence of large state trading companies
is diminishing
21. New support policies for rice in
developing countries
Producer Support Estimates %
1992 2002
India -25 +40
Indonesia +11 +46
Viet Nam -11 +32
Sources: Mullen, Gulati, and Orden (2004); Thomas and
Orden (2004) and Sun (2003) at IFPRI
22. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
23. Scenario analysis for alternative
policy developments
1. Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Growth and
Rural Development
2. Policy Failure Scenario:
Trade and Political Conflict, rise in
protectionism worldwide
3. Technology and Resource Management
Failure Scenario:
Adverse technology/natural resource
interactions
28. PERCENTAGE of children malnourished
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 2015 2030 2050
Percentageofmalnourished
children
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
29. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview
30. Conclusions
1. Rice continues to be crucial for food and
nutrition security.
2. Feeding the growing population requires
increased yields. Sustainable rice
production requires new technology
3. There is an international moral
responsibility of high income countries
with advanced rice science to share that
with poorer nations
31. 4. The need for efficiency in globalization.
Rice policies shift towards less
government intervention
5. Rice remains an agent of change in
societal and economic development. Rice-
culture has modernized but certainly not
vanished.
Rice: a factor of healthy sustainability
in globalization.
Conclusions