Post Budget Economics Outlook - Peck Boon Soon, Head of Economics, RHB Research Institute

RHB Research Institute
Post Budget Economics Outlook
October 2014 2
MALAYSIA
Ensuring fiscal sustainability

2015 Budget: Strategy to move up value chain
3
 Strategy put forth to ensure a smooth transition to the 11th Malaysia
Plan (11MP) and advance up the value chain.
 Developing human capital & entrepreneurship.
 Encouraging research and innovation.
 Nurturing the growth of SMEs.
 Promoting the growth of the services sector.
 Indeed, a new approach known as the Malaysia National Development
Strategy (MyNDs) is being formulated and will be a key basis to
planning and preparation of programmes and projects under the 11MP.
 Emphasis on using limited resources optimally.
 Focus on high-impact projects and programmes at low cost.
 Efficient and rapid implementation.
 11MP will cover the final crucial leg in the country’s transformation into
high-income nation by 2020.

2015 Budget: Pro growth and ensuring fiscal sustainability
4
 A well-balanced 2015 Budget combining commitments to achieve greater fiscal
prudence but mindful of the impact of the higher costs of living.
 Greater fiscal prudence will be achieved with the introduction of GST in April 2015
that will broaden the tax and partially help to bring down the fiscal deficit to 3% of
GDP.
 The impact of higher costs of living will be cushioned with a proposed reduction in
income tax by 1-3% from YA2015 and corporation income tax by 1% from YA2016, a
MYR300 hike in BR1M handouts to MYR950, and a new petroleum subsidy
mechanism in the pipeline
 A multi-tiered fuel subsidy rationalisation scheme to cut fuel subsidy and contain
operating expenditure.
 Good progress in the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme
and building economic resilience.
 The budget specifically mentioned several expressways coupled with MRT2
(MYR23bn) and LRT3 (MTR9bn), as well as the Pan-Borneo Highway (MYR27bn).
 The property and sin sectors (brewery, tobacco and gaming) are spared this time,
while pump-priming efforts will continue with a 15% increase in gross development
expenditure to MYR48.5bn.

5
Federal Government’s financial position
2013 20141 20152
MYRbn % change MYRbn %
change MYRbn %
change
Revenue 213.4 2.6 225.1 5.5 235.2 4.5
Total Expenditure 253.5 0.4 263.3 3.9 271.9 3.3
Operating Expenditure 211.3 2.8 221.1 4.7 223.4 1.1
Gross Development
Expenditure 42.2 -10.1 42.2 0.03 48.5 14.9
Less: Loan Recoveries 1.5 0.9 1.0
Net development
expenditure 40.7 -8.2 41.3 1.4 47.5 15.0
Overall Balance -38.6 -37.3 -35.7
% to GDP -3.9 -3.5 -3.0
Sources of financing:
Net domestic borrowing 39.5 37.6 -
Net external borrowing -0.2 -0.4 -
Change in assets -0.7 0.2
Debt to GDP % 54.7 54.1 53.1
1: Revised estimates by MOF
2: Budget forecasts, excluding 2015 tax measures
Note: Total may not add up due to rounding
Source: Economic Report 2014/2015, Ministry of Finance

Federal Government financial position
6
 Revenue boosted by GST MYR23bn
 A sharp increase of 15% in development expenditure in 2015 (+1.4%
estimated for 2014), which has a larger multiplier impact on the economy.
 Housing, education, trade & industry and transportation.
 Operating expenditure being contained at a marginal rise of 1.1% in 2015
(+4.7% estimated for 2014)
 Rationalising fuel subsidies.
Operating expenditure moderating but still at uncomfortable level
 Operating expenditure will
still take up 95% of
government revenue in
2015 (98.2% in 2014).
 Step in the right
direction, but still at an
uncomfortable high
level.

7
… 2015 Budget’s Impacts

Domestic demand growth is on a moderating trend
 GST will add to compliance cost and push up inflation.
 Reeling from the impact of policies over the last 2 years.
% y-o-y
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2006
2007
8
 Measures to rein in household debt (86.8% of GDP in 2013).
 Measures to cool down property speculation.
 Fuel subsidy rationalisation and fiscal consolidation.
Consumer spending growth though
slowing, remains resilient
A revitalisation of investment
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Private
investment
Fixed capital
formation
2013
2014
2015f
Source: Department of Statistics Source: Department of Statistics

Measures to control household debt
9
 2012 responsible lending - Based
on net income instead of gross
 Promote a sound and sustainable
household sector in July 2013
 Personal loans – max 10
years
 Property loans – max 35
years
 No pre-approved personal
loans
Rising household debt a concern
900.0
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
100.0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
% of GDP
RMbn
(RHS
(LHS
-4.0
09 10 11 12 13 J-A14
% change
Approved consumption loans

Property cooling measures in 2014 Budget – The
effect will be felt more significantly in 2015
Growth of outstanding housing loan
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
J10
10
A sharp slowdown in housing loan
approvals
 RPGT to be raised to 30%
 Foreigner can only buy property above RM1m
 Display detailed sales prices
 Ban developer interest bearing scheme
holding up
M
S
J11
M
S
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
J12
M
S
J13
M
S
J14
M
% yoy
Limit on L-T-V ratio
Macro prudential
Macro prudential
measures
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
08 09 10 11 12 13 J-A14
% change
Approved housing loans

Headline inflation to spike up in 2015
11
 Has moderated from 3.5% y-o-y in Fed-March 2014 to 3.2-3.3% in July-August.
 Effect of the upward adjustments in administrative pricing started to taper
off and a higher base effect set in.
 The 9.5-10% increase in retail petrol and diesel prices with effect from 2 Oct
could add about 0.7ppt to headline inflation in the immediate term (full-year
impact: <0.2ppt), but this will likely be subdued by the higher base effect.
Inflation accelerating
Source: Department of Statistics
 Full-year 2014 inflation
likely to be around 3.4%
(2.1% in 2013).
 The 6% GST will add
about 1.8ppts to inflation;
9-month impact for 2015:
+1.4ppts. 2015 headline
inflation is likely to be
close to 4.2%

Mitigating the impact of GST
12
 Expand scope of goods and services that are not subject to GST
 Electricity consumption exempted from GST to be increased from
first 200 to 300 units
 No GST on retail sales of RON95, diesel and LPG
 Restructure individual income tax for year of assessment 2015
 Individual: reduced by 1-3%
 Tax payers with family & income of MYR4,000/month: no tax
liability
 Maximum rate of chargeable income: increased from exceeding
MYR100,000 to exceeding MYR400,000
 Current maximum tax rate: 26% reduced to 24%, 24.5% & 25%
 Increase tax reliefs for certain categories
 Reduce income tax rates for Companies (2016), SMEs (2016)
& Cooperatives (2015) by 1-2%.
 Provide incentives & assistance to businesses on training, &
purchase of equipment and software relating to GST

Consumer spending to be cushioned by BR1M
13
 Strengthen food supply chain, establish 65 permanent farmers’
markets; 50 fish markets (2015 – 2017)
 Provide intercity bus services to those residing outside of but
working in KL with 30% discounted monthly fare
 Financial assistance for poor families, children, senior citizens &
OKU
 Increase living allowance for fishermen MYR200-300 per month
 Half month bonus to civil servants; MYR250 for pensioners
 MYR100 to all primary and secondary students;
 MYR250 1Malaysia Book Voucher
 Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) Programme
Category Monthly Income BR1M Value
Household Below MYR3,000 MYR950 (2014: MYR650)
MYR3,000 -MYR4000 MYR750 (2014: MYR450)
Individual MYR2,000 and below MYR350 (2014: MYR300)

Housing in 2015 Budget to help lower income group
14
 PR1MA:
 Construction of 80,000 units: MYR1.3bn
 Rent-To-Own scheme
 Extend 50% stamp duty exemption on instruments of transfer
and loan agreements and increase purchase limit to MYR500,000
until 31 Dec. 2016
 Improve Skim Rumah Pertamaku under Cagamas
 Youth Housing Scheme
 Monthly assistance MYR200 for 2 years to ease installments
burden
 50% stamp duty exemption on instruments of transfer and loan
agreements
 10% loan guarantee to get full financing

More infrastructure spending to support private
investment
15
 Construction/upgrading of infrastructure projects:
 Sungai Besi – Ulu Klang Expressway (SUKE): MYR5.3bn
 West Coast Expressway from Taiping to Banting: MYR5bn
 Damansara – Shah Alam Highway (DASH): MYR4.2bn
 Eastern Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE): MYR1.6bn
 East Coast railway line: MYR15mn
 MRT Line 2 from Selayang to Putrajaya (56 km): MYR23bn
 LRT 3 linking Bandar Utama to Shah Alam & Klang: MYR9bn
 Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex (PIPC): MYR69bn
 Build Pan-Borneo Highway (MYR27bn): Sarawak (936 km),
Sabah (727 km)
 High-Speed Broadband (HSBB) - Build 1,000 new
telecommunication towers & lay undersea cables: MYR2.7bn
 Construction of Air Langat 2 Water Treatment Plant: MYR3bn
 Sustainable Mobility Fund to develop the electric vehicle
manufacturing industry: MYR70m.

Some incentives for business in 2015 Budget
16
 Income tax exemption for industrial area management
 100% exemption for less developed areas (5 years)
 70% exemption for other areas (5 years)
 Capital allowance to increase automation in labour-intensive
industries
 High labour-intensive industries: 200% on the first MYR4m
expenditure (2015-2017)
 Other industries: 200% on the first MYR2m expenditure (2015-
2020)
 Introduce customised incentive package to increase MNCs
global operation centres
 Setting up Services Sector Guarantee Scheme: MYR5bn
 Reintroducing Services Export Fund (SEF): MYR300m
 Export duty exemption for CPO extended until December 2014
 Regulatory price mechanisms for rubber smallholders (MYR100m
allocation)

No rush for monetary tightening
17
 The Central Bank might have done with the rate hike for the
year.
 Policy shifted to focus on the strength of the economic
growth.
 Still a challenging global economic environment.
 Inflation will spike up after the GST comes into effect from April
2015 with real interest rates turning more negative. No rush but
another 25bps rate hike cannot be ruled out in 1Q2015.
 Raising the OPR will provide some support to the ringgit
and enable the Central Bank to manage a more orderly
outflow of short-term capital at a time when domestic
consumer spending will likely spike up ahead of the GST
implementation.

18
… External front fraught with challenges

Advanced economies in a “stop-and-go” recovery mode
 Stall-speed recovery in the major world economies, although the broad picture
still points to sustained, albeit uneven growth in the period ahead.
 Supported by the uptrend in global ISM new orders and industrial production.
 And the fact that ECB has responded with significant policy measures to revive
growth, while Japan and China have room for policy easing.
Advanced economies in a “stop-and-go”
% annualised
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
% annualised
11 12 13 14
19
Global ISM new orders and industrial
production on a rising trend
recovery mode
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
US (LHS) Japan (LHS)
Eurozone (RHS) UK (RHS)
Index %, y-o-y
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
30
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
ISM new orders (LHS) Global Industrial Index (RHS)

The strength hinges on the US economy
 Housing price recovery.
 Lack of a fiscal drag by itself is a big plus.
US manufacturing & services activities
Index
63
58
53
48
ISM
Non-manufacturing
12 13 14
ISM
manufacturing
USD bn Capital goods USD bn
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
Source: US’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics
Sustained jobs creation critical for consumer
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
20
US capital goods new orders and equipment
investment bouncing back
 On a steadier recovery path.
 Shale gas revolution.
 Sustained jobs creation.
remain robust
(RHS)
Equipment
investment
(LHS)
US housing price on recovery path
spending and growth
(Private non-farm)
% y-o-y
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
(House price index)
Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics Source: FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency)
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
50,000
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
-1000
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
m-o-m, thousand 12-mth MA 6-mth MA
-10.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Draghinomics countering the Eurozone’s deflation threat
Economic recovery in the Eurozone
% q-o-q
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0.0
(Q2)
2011 2012 2013 2014
21
Eurozone’s inflation below target
 Economy ground to a halt in the 2Q.
 ECB has responded twice on 5 June and 4 Sept – to counter the downtrend of
the economy.
 Cutting interest rates.
 Providing cheap funds to spur bank lending.
 Buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds issued by Eurozone banks.
stalled in the 2Q
% y-o-y
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: European Central Bank Source: European Central Bank
CPI
Core CPI

Abenomics’ structural reforms have just started
 Fear of consumption tax hike derailing the economic recovery.
 Abenomics has brought down unemployment to just 3.8% and the GDP deflator
Japan’s economy plunged into a sharp
% annualised
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-7.1%
(Q2)
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
22
Japan’s manufacturing activities and
retail sales bouncing back
has narrowed to close to zero.
 Beginning to make headway in its “Third Arrow” in implementing the
fundamental restructuring of the economy.
contraction after a sales tax hike
PMI
Index % y-o-y
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
PMI
Services
(LHS)
Source: Japan Statistics Bureau Source: Markit Economics
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
40
Manufacturing
Retail sales
(RHS)
(LHS)
11 12 13 14

China start-stop economy creates jitters, but growth
will likely hold up
 Still struggling with its debt burden while undergoing transformation.
 But there is a strong political will to steer its economy for a soft landing.
 Selective policy easing.
 Managing debt burden relatively well.
 Tail risk could potentially emerge from the large commodity-dependent
economies, but will unlikely degenerate into another major crisis, in our view.
Index
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
Official
PMI
HSBC
PMI
2011 Jul 2012 Jul 2013 Jul 2014 Jul
23
China industrial production, fixed asset
investment and retail sales slowing down
China’s HSBC and official
manufacturing PMIs still weak
%, y-o-y %, y-o-y
25
20
15
10
5
Source: China Federationof Logistics & Purchasing (official PMI), Source: China’s National Bureau of Statistics
Markit Economics (HSBC PMI)
35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Retail sales (LHS)
Industrial production (LHS)
Fixed asset investment (RHS)

Advanced economies, nevertheless, will unlikely be able to
transition from a recovery to an economic boom anytime soon
24
 Reflected in divergent trends of PMI new orders and manufacturing
activities of the major world economies.
 Causing another cycle of disinflation in 3Q 2014, led by the
absence of inflation in the Eurozone.
Divergent trends of manufacturing activity in the major world economies
Index
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
2012 Jul 2013 Jul 2014 Jul
Source: Markit Economics
US
Japan
China
Euro

The good news is:
25
 Policies in the major world countries will remain very
accommodative and supportive of equities.
 The inability of the developed countries to transition from a
recovery to an economic boom suggests that there is no risk of
significant policy tightening that will cause the uptrend in global
equities to reverse course anytime soon.
 It is just that it is more susceptible to a short-term setback due
to the occurrence of an unexpected event.
 What is also worth highlighting, in our view, is that in a
subdued growth environment, corporates do not have much
pricing power and with weak demand, inflation will well behave.

The bad news is:
 Exports started to turn sluggish in July-Aug, partly ex-rate factor partly high base
effect (MOF forecast 2.1% in 2015 vs 3.5% in 2014)
 Dragged down by uneven global economic growth
 Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East
 Uncertainty over global interest rate normalisation and policy adjustments in
advanced economies
 Slower growth in emerging economies
26
Source: Dept. of Statistics
Malaysia’s exports moderating in the 2H

When will the US raises interest rates?
 End of QE3 in the US.
 Complicated by changing expectations of the timing and
speed of US rate-hike cycle.
 Strength of the major world economies.
 Risk of a geopolitical shock.
Index
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
27
200
MSCI Asia ex-Japan index corrected both after end of QE1 and QE2
QE 3
(Sep12 -31Oct14)
QE1
(Dec 08-Mar10)
QE2
(Nov10-Jun11)
1-Jan-08
1-Apr-08
1-Jul-08
1-Oct-08
1-Jan-09
1-Apr-09
1-Jul-09
1-Oct-09
1-Jan-10
1-Apr-10
1-Jul-10
1-Oct-10
1-Jan-11
1-Apr-11
1-Jul-11
1-Oct-11
1-Jan-12
1-Apr-12
1-Jul-12
1-Oct-12
1-Jan-13
1-Apr-13
1-Jul-13
1-Oct-13
1-Jan-14
1-Apr-14
1-Jul-14
Source: Bloomberg

High foreign holdings of financial assets in Malaysia
 High foreign ownership of MGS and money market instruments
 Foreign ownership of equity trending down
High foreign holdings of MGS and
short-term money market papers
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
*Sep-14
28
Foreign holdings in equity remain high
 Susceptible to US interest rate hike
%
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Source: Bursa Malaysia; * estimates

Ringgit still susceptible to capital flow
 Could weaken back to around MYR 3.30/USD or even exceeding that level
MYR/USD: Recovered some lost ground
MYR/USD
2.90
2.95
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.20
3.25
3.30
3.35
3.2585
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
29
High foreign holdings of financial assets
temporarily in the short term.
 When expectations of a US rate hike build up.
 Will eventually strengthen back to around MYR 3.15/USD when the
situation normalises, in our view.
before weakening back
% %
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
MGS (LHS) Money market (LHS) Equity (RHS)
* Up to August 2014; Source: Bank Source: Bloomberg Negara Malaysia, Bursa Malaysia

Current account surplus in the balance of
payments bouncing back with export recovery
MYR bn % y-o-y
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
30
 Low risk of it falling into a deficit over the next 1-2 years.
Current account surplus in the balance of payments
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
0
Exports
(RHS)
Current account
balance
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

31
Slower economic growth in the 2H and 2015 is
to be expected
 Real GDP growth accelerated to 6.3% y-oy in 1H2014, lifted by strengthening
export growth.
 Growth, though resilience, is envisaged to slow to 5.3% y-o-y in the 2H, but the
full year growth of 5.8% is still likely to be the strongest in the SEA region.
 2015 growth is projected to be weaker at 5.3%
GDP by expenditure components (at constant 2005 prices)
MOF RHBRI
2012 2013 2014 (p) 2015 (f) 2014 (e) 2015 (f) 2016 (f)
(% growth in real terms)
Domestic demand1 10.6 7.4 6.4 6.2 6.4 5.8 6.1
Consumption
Public Consumption 5.0 6.3 2.1 3.8 4.0 3.1 3.9
Private Consumption 8.2 7.2 6.5 5.6 6.8 5.2 5.3
Fixed capital formation 19.2 8.5 8.3 8.5 6.9 8.2 8.5
Public Investment 14.6 2.2 2.6 4.7 0.4 3.4 4.0
Private Investment 22.8 13.1 12.0 10.7 11.2 11.0 11.0
Exports2 -1.8 0.6 3.5 2.1 4.5 4.8 4.4
Imports2 2.5 2.0 3.5 4.0 4.8 6.4 5.0
Gross Domestic Product 5.6 4.7 5.5-6.0 5.0-6.0 5.8 5.3 5.5
1Excluding stocks 2Goods & non-factor services
(p): Preliminary (f): Forecasts
Source: Economic Report 2014/2015, Ministry of Finance

32
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Stock Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
Industry/Sector Ratings
Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this
respect.

33
Thank You

34
Key Contact Information
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the RHB Banking Group
Lim Chee Sing
DL : +603 9285 9693
Email : cslim@rhbgroup.com
Alexander Chia
DL : +603 92077621
Email : alexander.chia@rhbgroup.com
Peck Boon Soon
DL : +603 9280 2163
Email : bspeck@rhbgroup.com

Post Budget Economics Outlook - Peck Boon Soon, Head of Economics, RHB Research Institute

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