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The	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  
	
  
James	
  Lanyon	
  
	
  
Draft	
  1	
  (unedited)	
  
	
  
07.10.14	
  
	
   	
  
Contents:	
  
	
  
The	
  opportunity	
  
	
  
Why	
  should	
  anyone	
  believe	
  this?	
  
	
  
Four	
  Stages	
  of	
  Acceptance:	
  
-­‐ Stage	
  1:	
  Proliferation	
  
-­‐ Stage	
  2:	
  Adoption	
  
-­‐ Stage	
  3:	
  Standardization	
  
-­‐ Stage	
  4:	
  Commercialization	
  
	
  
The	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  
-­‐ Analogs	
  
o Progressive	
  	
  
o FICO	
  
-­‐ Antilogs	
  
o Klout	
  
o Hyperpersonalization	
  
-­‐ Signals	
  
o The	
  Incorporated	
  Woman	
  
o Millenials	
  and	
  Privacy	
  
o The	
  Pivot	
  to	
  Passive	
  
o Shawn	
  Buckles	
  &	
  The	
  World	
  Economic	
  Forum	
  
	
  
Assumptions	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
The	
  opportunity	
  
	
  
Smart	
  devices	
  are	
  about	
  to	
  take	
  a	
  significant	
  evolutionary	
  step.	
  The	
  increase	
  in	
  the	
  device’s	
  
ability	
  to	
  capture	
  and	
  quantify	
  individual	
  data	
  (physical	
  function,	
  location	
  an	
  interaction),	
  
combined	
  with	
  early	
  indication	
  that	
  technology	
  providers	
  see	
  smaller	
  business	
  models	
  in	
  
quantified	
  data,	
  can	
  and	
  likely	
  will	
  lead	
  to	
  the	
  opportunity	
  for	
  consumers	
  to	
  create	
  their	
  
own	
  personal	
  economy.	
  	
  
	
  
In	
  the	
  future,	
  consumers,	
  as	
  individuals,	
  will	
  have	
  the	
  opportunity	
  to	
  control,	
  package	
  and	
  
sell	
  for	
  value	
  their	
  own	
  personal	
  data.	
  Conversely,	
  by	
  commercializing	
  their	
  own	
  data,	
  
consumers	
  will	
  also	
  have	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  exert	
  greater	
  control	
  over	
  their	
  personal	
  data	
  privacy.	
  	
  
This	
  is	
  as	
  opposed	
  to	
  the	
  current	
  consumer-­‐data	
  paradigm	
  whereby	
  little	
  perceive	
  
commercial	
  value	
  exists	
  at	
  the	
  individual	
  level	
  (i.e.	
  I	
  am	
  an	
  economy	
  of	
  me	
  that	
  I	
  can	
  
leverage	
  for	
  my	
  own	
  profit)	
  and	
  privacy	
  concerns	
  tend	
  to	
  exist	
  but	
  are	
  exchange	
  for	
  less	
  
tangible	
  benefits	
  such	
  as	
  perceived	
  personalization	
  and	
  security.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Why	
  should	
  anyone	
  believe	
  this?	
  
	
  
September	
  2014	
  will	
  likely	
  signal	
  a	
  turning	
  point	
  in	
  consumer	
  electronics.	
  Apple	
  is	
  expected	
  
to	
  go	
  public	
  with	
  its	
  wearable	
  tech	
  smart	
  watch	
  concept	
  in	
  addition	
  to	
  a	
  revamped	
  iPhone	
  6	
  
and	
  likely	
  (if	
  history	
  is	
  any	
  teacher)	
  iOS	
  updates.	
  The	
  anticipation	
  is	
  not	
  only	
  palpable,	
  but	
  it	
  
is	
  provocative.	
  Competitors	
  such	
  as	
  Google	
  and	
  Samsung	
  have	
  already	
  moved	
  to	
  try	
  and	
  
beat	
  Apple	
  to	
  market	
  or	
  at	
  the	
  very	
  least,	
  claim	
  the	
  high	
  ground	
  in	
  the	
  conversation.	
  	
  
	
  
Those	
  expecting	
  consumers	
  to	
  start	
  snatching	
  up	
  iWatch’s	
  (iWatch	
  is	
  the	
  placeholder	
  name)	
  
and	
  ensuing	
  competitors/imitators	
  left	
  and	
  right	
  may	
  be	
  disappointed	
  at	
  initial	
  adoption.	
  	
  
2014	
  global	
  iPhone	
  sales	
  and	
  the	
  ubiquitous	
  iPhone	
  brand	
  obscure	
  the	
  relatively	
  meager	
  
sales	
  performance	
  of	
  the	
  first	
  iPhone	
  in	
  2007.	
  Whereas	
  Apple	
  sold	
  almost	
  44	
  million	
  units	
  in	
  
Q214	
  alone,	
  Q307	
  saw	
  iPhone	
  sales	
  of	
  just	
  270,000.	
  	
  	
  In	
  fact	
  iPhone	
  quarterly	
  sales	
  didn’t	
  
break	
  the	
  ten	
  million	
  units	
  mark	
  until	
  Q410	
  –	
  more	
  than	
  three	
  years	
  after	
  its	
  introduction.	
  	
  
	
  
As	
  David	
  said	
  in	
  the	
  movie	
  Prometheus,	
  “big	
  things	
  have	
  small	
  beginnings…”	
  The	
  
evolutionary	
  process	
  that	
  takes	
  place	
  between	
  introduction	
  and	
  market	
  absorption	
  lays	
  the	
  
foundation	
  for	
  the	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  concept.	
  	
  Before	
  we	
  can	
  understand	
  and	
  dimensionalize	
  
this	
  opportunity,	
  it’s	
  important	
  to	
  visit	
  two	
  areas:	
  
	
  
1. Patterns	
  of	
  adoptions	
  and	
  implementation	
  
2. Analogs,	
  anitlogs	
  and	
  signals	
  
	
  
Four	
  stages	
  of	
  acceptance:	
  
	
  
Consumers	
  looking	
  for	
  a	
  rich	
  mobile	
  gaming	
  experience	
  prior	
  to	
  2007	
  had	
  few	
  real	
  options.	
  
Monochromatic	
  screens	
  and	
  small	
  memory	
  footprints	
  allowed	
  for	
  one-­‐dimensional	
  games	
  
such	
  as	
  snake.	
  Other	
  non-­‐telephony	
  functions	
  were	
  similarly	
  one-­‐dimensional.	
  Phones	
  were,	
  
at	
  the	
  time,	
  well,	
  phones.	
  Conversely,	
  today,	
  telephony	
  is	
  likely	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  least	
  important	
  
elements	
  of	
  a	
  mobile	
  device.	
  	
  
	
  
It	
  is	
  common	
  knowledge	
  that	
  the	
  iPhone	
  and	
  ensuing	
  Android	
  platform	
  radically	
  reshaped	
  
non-­‐telephony	
  device	
  interaction	
  and	
  experience.	
  Many	
  credit	
  innovations	
  such	
  as	
  Gorilla	
  
Glass,	
  multi-­‐touch	
  keyboards	
  and	
  enhanced	
  processors	
  with	
  driving	
  this	
  transformation.	
  
While	
  it	
  is	
  true	
  these	
  aspects	
  enabled	
  the	
  mobile	
  device	
  revolution,	
  there	
  was	
  a	
  much	
  more	
  
significant	
  force	
  at	
  play	
  –	
  one	
  that	
  will	
  need	
  to	
  take	
  place	
  for	
  wearable	
  technology	
  to	
  have	
  
the	
  same	
  sort	
  of	
  success	
  that	
  mobile	
  devices	
  have	
  experienced.	
  Just	
  as	
  important	
  was	
  the	
  
element	
  of	
  standardization.	
  	
  
	
  
Wearable	
  technology	
  will	
  need	
  to	
  traverse	
  four	
  specific	
  stages	
  before	
  it	
  has	
  the	
  opportunity	
  
to	
  deliver	
  the	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  concept.	
  
	
  
Stage	
  1:	
  Proliferation	
  
	
  
Using	
  the	
  Rogers	
  model	
  as	
  a	
  starting	
  point,	
  we	
  can	
  assume	
  a	
  single	
  wearable	
  technology	
  
platform	
  such	
  as	
  iWatch	
  will	
  need	
  to	
  reach	
  a	
  10%	
  to	
  15%	
  marketshare	
  before	
  it	
  can	
  begin	
  to	
  
dictate	
  terms	
  of	
  engagement	
  to	
  the	
  eco-­‐system	
  of	
  third	
  party	
  investors	
  and	
  developers	
  that	
  
will	
  want	
  to	
  begin	
  growing	
  the	
  system.	
  This	
  is	
  roughly	
  equivalent	
  to	
  absorption	
  of	
  
“innovator”	
  consumers	
  and	
  significant	
  market	
  penetration	
  into	
  “early	
  adopter”	
  consumers.	
  
This	
  is	
  when	
  the	
  early	
  majority	
  will	
  be	
  inspecting	
  its	
  more	
  intrepid	
  counterparts	
  when	
  
deciding	
  whether	
  to	
  get	
  in	
  or	
  stay	
  out.	
  	
  
	
  
There	
  are	
  numerous	
  sources	
  tracking	
  smart	
  phone	
  penetration	
  as	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  mobile	
  market	
  
with	
  a	
  consensus	
  range	
  of	
  between	
  62%	
  and	
  69%.	
  While	
  on	
  the	
  high	
  end	
  of	
  that	
  range,	
  
comScore	
  was	
  the	
  only	
  available	
  resource	
  to	
  offer	
  an	
  actual	
  enumeration.	
  Using	
  comScore’s	
  
hard	
  projections	
  for	
  mobile	
  device	
  users	
  we	
  see	
  a	
  total	
  universe	
  of	
  239.5	
  million	
  mobile	
  
users	
  and	
  159.8	
  million	
  smart	
  device	
  users.	
  Using	
  these	
  numbers	
  it	
  is	
  possible	
  to	
  estimate	
  
proliferation	
  to	
  occur	
  once	
  a	
  single	
  wearable	
  technology	
  platform	
  has	
  between	
  16	
  million	
  
and	
  24	
  million	
  users	
  (in	
  today’s	
  mobile	
  penetration	
  environment	
  –	
  projections	
  should	
  index	
  
for	
  increased	
  smart	
  device	
  penetration	
  over	
  time	
  relative	
  to	
  speed	
  to	
  market).	
  	
  
These	
  aren’t	
  just	
  any	
  16	
  million	
  users	
  though.	
  The	
  race	
  will	
  be	
  on	
  to	
  find	
  16	
  to	
  24	
  million	
  
differentiated	
  users	
  –	
  those	
  not	
  merely	
  replicating	
  existing	
  usage	
  and	
  habits	
  that	
  already	
  
exist	
  on	
  their	
  smart	
  device.	
  	
  
	
  
Stage	
  2:	
  Adoption	
  
	
  
A	
  key	
  determinant	
  of	
  wearable	
  technology	
  success	
  will	
  be	
  its	
  functional	
  differentiation	
  from	
  
smart	
  devices	
  already	
  in	
  market.	
  	
  The	
  inevitable	
  question	
  all	
  consumers	
  will	
  ask	
  themselves	
  
is	
  why	
  they	
  should	
  pay	
  hundreds	
  of	
  dollars	
  for	
  a	
  watch	
  if	
  it	
  only	
  replicates	
  the	
  functionality	
  
their	
  existing	
  smart	
  device.	
  Network	
  data	
  providers	
  who	
  have	
  traditionally	
  subsidized	
  the	
  
smart	
  device	
  market	
  will	
  likely	
  ask	
  the	
  same	
  question.	
  “Don’t	
  we	
  already	
  subsidize	
  the	
  
handheld	
  version?”	
  
	
  
With	
  smart	
  device	
  penetration	
  at	
  68%,	
  it	
  is	
  safe	
  to	
  say	
  the	
  vast	
  majority	
  of	
  consumers	
  have	
  
at	
  least	
  an	
  intermediate	
  familiarity	
  with	
  device	
  function	
  and	
  potential,	
  making	
  ongoing	
  
platform	
  innovation	
  incremental.	
  The	
  larger	
  leaps	
  are	
  now	
  the	
  domain	
  of	
  the	
  third	
  party	
  
market	
  makers/developers	
  such	
  as	
  MonkeyParking.	
  	
  
	
  
While	
  it	
  might	
  make	
  marketing	
  sense	
  to	
  attach	
  wearable	
  technology	
  as	
  part	
  of	
  a	
  larger	
  eco-­‐
system,	
  those	
  16	
  to	
  24	
  million	
  differentiated	
  users	
  will	
  not	
  go	
  to	
  the	
  brand	
  that	
  shows	
  how	
  
their	
  wearable	
  technology	
  is	
  like	
  their	
  smart	
  device.	
  Rather,	
  the	
  race	
  will	
  go	
  the	
  brand	
  that	
  
shows	
  how	
  their	
  wearable	
  technology	
  is	
  not	
  like	
  their	
  smart	
  device.	
  Interoperability	
  with	
  
other	
  smart	
  components	
  will	
  be	
  convenient	
  and	
  in	
  the	
  long	
  run	
  may	
  be	
  pre-­‐requisite.	
  It	
  will	
  
not	
  however	
  be	
  determinant	
  at	
  the	
  beginning.	
  	
  
 
This	
  is	
  not	
  to	
  say	
  that	
  traditional	
  apps	
  should	
  not	
  or	
  will	
  not	
  exist	
  on	
  next-­‐gen	
  wearable	
  
technology.	
  That	
  is	
  likely	
  desirable.	
  However,	
  their	
  presence	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  the	
  key	
  
differentiator	
  and	
  those	
  who	
  pursue	
  a	
  strategy	
  of	
  enhancing	
  an	
  already	
  existing	
  customer	
  
experience	
  such	
  as	
  smart	
  phone	
  apps	
  ignore	
  a	
  fundamental	
  reality.	
  	
  
	
  
Adoption	
  and	
  the	
  race	
  to	
  proliferation	
  will	
  go	
  to	
  the	
  provider	
  who	
  understands	
  the	
  
difference	
  between	
  wearable	
  technology	
  and	
  smart	
  phones/devices.	
  Whereas	
  smart	
  devices	
  
offer	
  users	
  a	
  whole	
  new	
  level	
  of	
  technology	
  utility,	
  wearable	
  technology	
  will	
  offer	
  a	
  whole	
  
new	
  level	
  of	
  physical	
  interaction	
  between	
  the	
  user	
  and	
  the	
  technology.	
  	
  
	
  
Similar	
  to	
  apps,	
  heightened	
  levels	
  of	
  utility	
  are	
  achievable	
  on	
  wearable	
  technology.	
  The	
  fact	
  
that	
  heightened	
  utility	
  already	
  exists	
  elsewhere	
  excludes	
  it	
  from	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  determine	
  
differentiation	
  among	
  users	
  as	
  brands	
  race	
  towards	
  market	
  dominance.	
  In	
  short,	
  replicating	
  
utility	
  will	
  likely	
  only	
  inhibit	
  adoption	
  or	
  potentially	
  fracture	
  the	
  existing	
  smart	
  device	
  
market.	
  Embracing	
  the	
  concept	
  of	
  heightened	
  interoperability	
  between	
  user	
  and	
  technology	
  
will	
  allow	
  wearable	
  technology	
  to	
  either	
  stand	
  on	
  its	
  own	
  or	
  justify	
  existing	
  as	
  a	
  part	
  of	
  a	
  
consumer	
  eco	
  system.	
  	
  
	
  
Stage	
  3:	
  Standardization	
  	
  
	
  
While	
  we	
  celebrate	
  Steve	
  Jobs’	
  memory	
  and	
  lionize	
  his	
  vision,	
  we	
  overlook	
  the	
  fact	
  that	
  he	
  
originally	
  tried	
  to	
  keep	
  the	
  app	
  store	
  off	
  the	
  iPhone.	
  Yet	
  apps	
  are	
  easily	
  the	
  defining	
  element	
  
of	
  all	
  current	
  smart	
  devices.	
  They	
  offer	
  users	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  conform	
  their	
  device	
  in	
  an	
  ever-­‐
changing	
  way	
  and	
  scale	
  it	
  accordingly.	
  Apps,	
  for	
  the	
  user,	
  are	
  the	
  difference	
  between	
  a	
  cell	
  
phone	
  and	
  a	
  smart	
  phone.	
  Apps,	
  for	
  the	
  market,	
  create	
  standardization	
  –	
  a	
  critical	
  initial	
  
element	
  for	
  technology	
  success	
  in	
  this	
  category.	
  Prior	
  to	
  the	
  iPhone,	
  mobile	
  developers	
  
faced	
  a	
  daunting	
  array	
  of	
  proprietary	
  operating	
  systems	
  on	
  meager	
  platforms	
  with	
  no	
  
discernable	
  point	
  of	
  distribution.	
  The	
  iPhone	
  with	
  its	
  App	
  store	
  gave	
  developers	
  something	
  
to	
  rally	
  around	
  as	
  did	
  Android	
  much	
  later	
  in	
  the	
  game.	
  They	
  knew	
  what	
  they	
  were	
  
programming	
  for	
  and	
  how	
  they	
  could	
  get	
  their	
  idea	
  to	
  market.	
  	
  
	
  
Standardization	
  could	
  also	
  be	
  seen	
  as	
  consolidation	
  as	
  it	
  likely	
  means	
  less	
  demand	
  for	
  
proprietary,	
  limited	
  functionality	
  devices.	
  	
  More	
  and	
  more,	
  brands	
  such	
  as	
  Jawbone,	
  Pebble	
  
and	
  Fitbit	
  will	
  be	
  forced	
  to	
  answer	
  the	
  question	
  of	
  what	
  their	
  devices	
  provide	
  that	
  isn’t	
  
already	
  provided	
  by	
  the	
  more	
  open,	
  customizable	
  platform.	
  While	
  proprietary	
  systems	
  may	
  
look	
  to	
  create	
  interoperability	
  and	
  offer	
  improved	
  product	
  performance,	
  that	
  increased	
  
performance	
  likely	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  enough	
  to	
  counter	
  the	
  exponentially	
  greater	
  functionality	
  of	
  
the	
  open,	
  customizable	
  platform.	
  We	
  must	
  also	
  take	
  into	
  account	
  the	
  trade	
  off	
  that	
  exists	
  
between	
  modular	
  flexibility	
  and	
  single	
  function	
  performance	
  devices.	
  Even	
  though	
  
proprietary	
  closed	
  system	
  devices	
  may	
  initially	
  offer	
  a	
  greater	
  singular	
  point	
  of	
  	
  
performance,	
  they	
  remain	
  vulnerable	
  to	
  the	
  expectation	
  that	
  the	
  flexible	
  platform	
  will	
  
improve	
  over	
  time.	
  	
  
	
  
As	
  Fast	
  Company	
  noted	
  in	
  its	
  3.29.14	
  article,	
  “Why	
  Nike	
  Is	
  (Probably)	
  Killing	
  the	
  Fuelband”:	
  
	
  
“If	
  you're	
  surprised,	
  you	
  shouldn't	
  be.	
  Wearable	
  fitness	
  trackers	
  like	
  the	
  Nike	
  FuelBand	
  are	
  
about	
  to	
  go	
  the	
  way	
  of	
  the	
  dodo.	
  “	
  
	
  
Once	
  the	
  industry	
  rallies	
  around	
  two	
  to	
  three	
  core	
  platform	
  providers,	
  developers	
  will	
  have	
  
a	
  stationary	
  target	
  by	
  which	
  to	
  plan,	
  develop	
  and	
  monetize	
  a	
  new	
  slate	
  of	
  business	
  ideas	
  
paving	
  the	
  way	
  for	
  Commercialization.	
  
	
  
Stage	
  4:	
  Commercialization	
  
	
  
Once	
  standardization	
  has	
  taken	
  place,	
  the	
  market	
  will	
  then	
  turn	
  towards	
  driving	
  newer	
  and	
  
more	
  innovative	
  business	
  models.	
  	
  It	
  wasn’t	
  until	
  the	
  launch	
  of	
  iPhone	
  4	
  I	
  June	
  2010	
  that	
  
iPhone	
  sales	
  broke	
  out	
  paving	
  the	
  way	
  for	
  robust	
  app	
  development	
  and	
  app	
  store	
  growth.	
  	
  
	
  
Since	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  iPhone	
  4	
  the	
  market	
  has	
  seen	
  (through	
  Q214):	
  
	
  
88%	
  of	
  global	
  iPhone	
  sales	
  	
   	
  
92%	
  of	
  apps	
  introduced	
  to	
  the	
  App	
  Store	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
It	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  note	
  that	
  the	
  transformation	
  from	
  a	
  smaller	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  consumer	
  market	
  
playing	
  with	
  and	
  auditing	
  the	
  product	
  (iPhones	
  2,	
  3G,	
  3Gs)	
  to	
  the	
  bulk	
  of	
  the	
  market	
  
accepting	
  the	
  product	
  (4,	
  4s,	
  5,	
  5s,	
  5c)	
  paves	
  the	
  way	
  for	
  larger	
  market	
  commercialization	
  
through	
  fast	
  followers	
  such	
  as	
  Google	
  and	
  its	
  Android	
  platform.	
  2009	
  represents	
  the	
  
beginning	
  of	
  global	
  Android	
  sales.	
  	
  
	
  
Predictably,	
  2009	
  and	
  2010	
  saw	
  Android	
  sales	
  at	
  69,000,000	
  or	
  4.6%	
  of	
  global	
  sales	
  
through	
  2013.	
  2011,	
  2012	
  and	
  2013	
  represented	
  95.4%	
  of	
  Android	
  sales	
  over	
  that	
  same	
  
period	
  repeating	
  the	
  trend	
  line	
  showing	
  the	
  progression	
  from	
  a	
  small	
  handful	
  of	
  
adventurous	
  consumers	
  playing	
  with	
  the	
  product	
  so	
  the	
  broader	
  market	
  can	
  peer	
  over	
  their	
  
shoulders	
  and	
  see	
  if	
  the	
  product	
  lives	
  up	
  to	
  its	
  hype.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
If	
  the	
  iWatch	
  and	
  its	
  fast	
  follower	
  competitors	
  is	
  a	
  truly	
  distinct	
  product	
  in	
  the	
  marketplace,	
  
it	
  stands	
  to	
  reason	
  the	
  wearable	
  technology	
  category	
  will	
  follow	
  this	
  same	
  path.	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
0	
  
100	
  
200	
  
300	
  
400	
  
500	
  
600	
  
700	
  
800	
  
2009	
   2010	
   2011	
   2012	
   2013	
  
Android	
  
iOS	
  
The	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  
	
  
At	
  the	
  heart	
  of	
  the	
  wearable	
  technology	
  phenomenon	
  is	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  the	
  quantified	
  self.	
  This	
  
is	
  the	
  key	
  differentiator	
  mentioned	
  above.	
  	
  Most	
  of	
  the	
  current	
  chatter	
  revolves	
  around	
  the	
  
notion	
  of	
  health.	
  Health	
  and	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  track	
  one’s	
  physical	
  movement	
  is	
  a	
  sensible	
  first	
  
approach.	
  But	
  it	
  is	
  only	
  one	
  of	
  many	
  potential	
  opportunities	
  wearable	
  technology	
  will	
  likely	
  
offer.	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  concept	
  of	
  the	
  individual	
  IPO	
  is	
  the	
  extreme	
  logical	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  notion	
  that	
  individual	
  
consumers’	
  data	
  (via	
  the	
  quantified	
  self	
  principle)	
  has	
  value	
  much	
  in	
  the	
  same	
  way	
  a	
  
company’s	
  products	
  or	
  services	
  have	
  value.	
  Your	
  personal	
  data	
  can	
  be	
  merchandised	
  on	
  a	
  
broader	
  marketplace	
  for	
  payment,	
  discount	
  or	
  barter/trade.	
  	
  At	
  a	
  given	
  point	
  a	
  person	
  who	
  
has	
  aggregated	
  a	
  significant	
  amount	
  of	
  data	
  can	
  package	
  himself	
  or	
  herself	
  for	
  an	
  initial	
  
public	
  offering	
  allowing	
  brands	
  and	
  marketers	
  to	
  bid	
  on	
  their	
  information	
  in	
  its	
  various	
  
forms.	
  	
  Your	
  data	
  value	
  would	
  rise	
  and	
  flow	
  over	
  time	
  based	
  on	
  how	
  your	
  actions	
  affect	
  your	
  
perceived	
  value.	
  	
  
	
  
This	
  is	
  in	
  contrast	
  to	
  today’s	
  device/online	
  driven	
  world	
  whereby	
  user-­‐generated	
  data	
  is	
  
generally	
  owned	
  and	
  merchandised	
  by	
  third	
  parties	
  via	
  free	
  services	
  such	
  as	
  Facebook.	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  discussion	
  of	
  the	
  Health	
  App	
  offers	
  hints	
  as	
  to	
  how	
  this	
  may	
  begin.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
When	
  you	
  match	
  the	
  dynamic	
  aspects	
  of	
  wearable	
  technology	
  against	
  the	
  dynamics	
  of	
  the	
  
healthcare	
  vertical	
  certain	
  opportunities	
  begin	
  to	
  take	
  shape.	
  More	
  and	
  more,	
  healthcare	
  
providers	
  in	
  managed	
  practices	
  have	
  been	
  looking	
  for	
  ways	
  to	
  provide	
  more	
  consistent	
  care	
  
with	
  greater	
  convenience	
  and	
  at	
  a	
  lower	
  cost.	
  It’s	
  easy	
  to	
  conceive	
  of	
  a	
  business	
  model	
  
whereby,	
  for	
  a	
  nominal	
  regular	
  fee,	
  a	
  nurse	
  practitioner	
  will	
  review	
  your	
  data,	
  make	
  any	
  
notations	
  and	
  store	
  it	
  in	
  your	
  file	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  flagging	
  any	
  irregularities.	
  This	
  is	
  in	
  addition	
  to	
  
the	
  routine	
  doctor’s	
  visit.	
  Health	
  insurance	
  providers	
  could	
  potentially	
  pay	
  the	
  fee	
  making	
  it	
  
free	
  of	
  charge	
  to	
  the	
  individual.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Taking	
  it	
  a	
  step	
  further,	
  we	
  can	
  also	
  see	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  an	
  independent	
  business	
  model	
  
whereby	
  a	
  health	
  insurance	
  provider	
  offers	
  a	
  policy	
  holder	
  potential	
  discounts	
  on	
  the	
  
grounds	
  he	
  stream	
  his	
  health	
  information	
  to	
  the	
  provider	
  (including	
  GPS	
  data	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  
biometric	
  quantification).	
  This	
  would	
  work	
  as	
  a	
  two	
  way	
  street	
  behavioral	
  management	
  tool	
  
for	
  a	
  provider	
  looking	
  to	
  reduce	
  payments	
  and	
  encourage	
  healthier	
  living.	
  	
  A	
  month	
  of	
  
nothing	
  but	
  strong	
  data	
  points	
  could	
  reduce	
  a	
  premium	
  payment	
  in	
  the	
  form	
  of	
  rebate	
  at	
  the	
  
end	
  of	
  the	
  year.	
  Conversely,	
  a	
  month	
  of	
  bad	
  data	
  in	
  the	
  form	
  of	
  stops	
  at	
  various	
  fast	
  food	
  
restaurants,	
  reduced	
  sleep	
  levels,	
  higher	
  blood	
  pressure,	
  etc.	
  could	
  result	
  in	
  an	
  increased	
  
premium	
  that	
  would	
  be	
  due	
  at	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  year.	
  The	
  policyholder’s	
  actions	
  would	
  dictate	
  
whether	
  he	
  would	
  receive	
  a	
  sizable	
  policy	
  refund	
  at	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  year	
  or	
  a	
  massive	
  balloon	
  
payment	
  based	
  on	
  a	
  series	
  of	
  very	
  unhealthy	
  indulgences.	
  The	
  individual’s	
  daily	
  life	
  and	
  
subsequent	
  rewards	
  or	
  penalties	
  in	
  effect	
  transforms	
  him	
  from	
  a	
  consumer	
  to	
  a	
  market.	
  	
  	
  
Wearable	
  technology	
  has	
  the	
  potential	
  to	
  enable	
  this	
  sort	
  of	
  a	
  business	
  model.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Retail	
  fashion	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  many	
  vertical	
  markets	
  that	
  could	
  vie	
  for	
  your	
  information.	
  Imagine	
  
the	
  ability	
  to	
  make	
  wardrobe	
  suggestions	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  analysis	
  of	
  a	
  person’s	
  daily	
  life.	
  
Heading	
  out	
  to	
  dinner	
  at	
  certain	
  restaurant	
  followed	
  by	
  drinks	
  at	
  a	
  specific	
  bar?	
  The	
  retail	
  
brand	
  could	
  recommend	
  combinations	
  based	
  on	
  your	
  personal	
  lifestyle	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  accessing	
  
data	
  from	
  others	
  who	
  have	
  frequented	
  the	
  same	
  locations	
  –	
  but	
  only	
  if	
  you	
  grant	
  it	
  access	
  to	
  
your	
  information.	
  	
  As	
  these	
  personal	
  data	
  markets	
  begin	
  to	
  add	
  up,	
  the	
  individual	
  
transforms	
  once	
  again	
  into	
  a	
  singular	
  economy.	
  It	
  will	
  be	
  the	
  various	
  elements	
  within	
  the	
  
economy	
  that	
  drive	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  the	
  Individual	
  IPO.	
  
	
  
The	
  fixation	
  on	
  the	
  third	
  party	
  platform	
  value	
  generator	
  model	
  makes	
  it	
  easy	
  to	
  either	
  
overlook	
  or	
  misconstrue	
  consumer	
  awareness	
  of	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  the	
  data	
  they	
  create.	
  It	
  is	
  not	
  
uncommon	
  to	
  hear	
  about	
  how	
  consumers	
  either	
  don’t	
  understand	
  or	
  don’t	
  care	
  about	
  their	
  
own	
  data.	
  This	
  couldn’t	
  be	
  further	
  from	
  the	
  truth.	
  In	
  fact	
  a	
  recent	
  study	
  by	
  SAS	
  shows	
  that	
  
consumer	
  clearly	
  understand	
  some	
  relative	
  value	
  for	
  the	
  data	
  they	
  create.	
  Four	
  data	
  points	
  
from	
  the	
  study	
  show	
  an	
  intersection	
  of	
  considerations:	
  
	
  
• 71%	
  said	
  recent	
  news	
  reports	
  have	
  increased	
  concerns	
  over	
  data	
  privacy	
  
• 60%	
  said	
  they	
  expect	
  companies	
  to	
  expect	
  their	
  preferences	
  and	
  needs	
  
• 38%	
  reported	
  a	
  decrease	
  in	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  irrelevant	
  messages	
  they	
  received	
  
• 59%	
  said	
  that	
  businesses	
  were	
  getting	
  better	
  at	
  personalizing	
  messages	
  for	
  them	
  
	
  
It’s	
  clear	
  that	
  consumers	
  are	
  at	
  some	
  level	
  aware	
  their	
  information	
  has	
  value	
  and	
  they	
  
understand	
  they	
  are	
  trading	
  the	
  data	
  in	
  return	
  for	
  more	
  personalization.	
  	
  While	
  
personalization	
  is	
  important	
  in	
  daily	
  life,	
  it	
  is,	
  at	
  best,	
  a	
  secondary	
  benefit	
  and	
  not	
  always	
  
guaranteed.	
  While	
  there	
  is	
  no	
  publicly	
  available	
  research	
  to	
  substantiate	
  the	
  claim,	
  it	
  is	
  safe	
  
to	
  assume	
  that,	
  given	
  the	
  choice	
  between	
  trading	
  data	
  for	
  personalization	
  and	
  trading	
  data	
  
for	
  financial	
  compensation,	
  consumers	
  would	
  overwhelmingly	
  choose	
  the	
  compensation.	
  
This	
  is	
  the	
  reality	
  that	
  portends	
  to	
  upend	
  the	
  current	
  data	
  value	
  exchange	
  in	
  favor	
  of	
  the	
  
consumer	
  should	
  commercialization	
  of	
  open-­‐source	
  wearable	
  platforms	
  enable	
  the	
  
opportunity.	
  
	
  
Data	
  privacy	
  is	
  a	
  core	
  element	
  of	
  understanding	
  this	
  opportunity.	
  In	
  the	
  context	
  of	
  data,	
  
privacy	
  is	
  synonymous	
  with	
  control	
  or	
  ownership.	
  	
  Despite	
  a	
  seemingly	
  endless	
  stream	
  of	
  
headlines	
  like,	
  “Report:	
  NSA	
  Used	
  Heartbleed	
  to	
  Spy	
  on	
  People	
  for	
  Years”	
  and	
  “Some	
  Shrug	
  
at	
  NSA	
  Snooping,	
  Privacy	
  is	
  Dead…”	
  there’s	
  been	
  little	
  public	
  outcry.	
  Every	
  subsequent	
  
release	
  by	
  Eric	
  Snowden	
  is	
  met	
  with	
  a	
  counterweight	
  of	
  public	
  silence.	
  Why	
  is	
  that?	
  Is	
  it	
  
because	
  individuals	
  don’t	
  care?	
  Is	
  it	
  because	
  the	
  technological	
  nature	
  of	
  data	
  privacy	
  makes	
  
the	
  issue	
  “out	
  of	
  sight,	
  out	
  of	
  mind?”	
  Both	
  of	
  these	
  explanations	
  may	
  play	
  a	
  smaller	
  role.	
  
However,	
  the	
  larger	
  truth	
  is	
  that	
  many	
  individuals	
  understand	
  they	
  are	
  making	
  a	
  trade,	
  that	
  
they	
  are	
  in	
  a	
  market-­‐based	
  situation	
  whereby	
  they	
  are	
  trading	
  their	
  data	
  privacy	
  for	
  
perceived	
  security	
  against	
  some	
  form	
  of	
  attack.	
  The	
  common	
  refrain	
  when	
  consumers	
  are	
  
asked	
  about	
  snooping	
  or	
  eavesdropping	
  seems	
  to	
  be,	
  “I’m	
  not	
  doing	
  anything	
  wrong	
  so	
  why	
  
should	
  I	
  be	
  worried?”	
  This	
  attitude	
  is	
  in	
  and	
  of	
  itself	
  a	
  classic	
  first	
  move	
  in	
  the	
  context	
  of	
  the	
  
Nash	
  Equilibrium	
  whereby	
  two	
  parties	
  with	
  equal	
  amounts	
  of	
  information	
  attempt	
  to	
  move	
  
towards	
  the	
  middle	
  in	
  a	
  mutually	
  beneficial	
  exchange.	
  	
  For	
  many	
  who	
  grew	
  up	
  pre	
  9-­‐11,	
  a	
  
sense	
  of	
  helping	
  avert	
  another	
  catastrophic	
  attach	
  is	
  likely	
  more	
  tangible	
  and	
  more	
  valuable	
  
than	
  holding	
  onto	
  their	
  data	
  which	
  would	
  otherwise	
  have	
  little	
  value	
  if	
  left	
  sitting	
  in	
  private.	
  	
  
 
Given	
  the	
  fact	
  data	
  has	
  an	
  established	
  value	
  in	
  the	
  mind	
  of	
  the	
  consumer,	
  it	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  
look	
  for	
  three	
  key	
  factors	
  to	
  help	
  substantiate	
  the	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  proposition:	
  
	
  
1. Analogs:	
  Are	
  there	
  already	
  business	
  models	
  or	
  products/services	
  that	
  have	
  a	
  
discernable	
  relationship	
  to	
  the	
  idea?	
  
2. Antilogs:	
  Are	
  there	
  current	
  business	
  models	
  that	
  sit	
  in	
  opposition	
  to	
  the	
  idea	
  and	
  
how	
  has	
  their	
  relative	
  success	
  or	
  failure	
  help	
  us	
  understand	
  the	
  opportunity?	
  
3. Signals:	
  Are	
  there	
  blips	
  or	
  potential	
  proof	
  points	
  on	
  the	
  radar	
  that	
  hint	
  at	
  what’s	
  to	
  
come?	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
Analogs:	
  
	
  
Progressive	
  Insurance	
  Snapshot	
  program:	
  	
  
	
  
Progressive	
  has	
  already	
  successfully	
  launched	
  a	
  program	
  whereby	
  policy	
  holders	
  trade	
  data	
  
aggregated	
  through	
  a	
  device	
  placed	
  inside	
  the	
  car	
  for	
  savings	
  and	
  discounts.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Credit	
  Scores:	
  FICO	
  scores	
  as	
  tracked	
  by	
  the	
  “Big	
  3”	
  credit	
  reporting	
  groups	
  already	
  
represent	
  an	
  exchange,	
  albeit	
  involuntary,	
  of	
  data	
  for	
  financial	
  benefit.	
  While	
  the	
  FICO	
  
scoring	
  system	
  is	
  at	
  best	
  opaque	
  and	
  indecipherable,	
  its	
  bottom	
  line	
  is	
  clear	
  –	
  the	
  more	
  
responsible	
  actions	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  tracked	
  via	
  a	
  person’s	
  financial	
  data,	
  the	
  more	
  financial	
  
benefits	
  they	
  are	
  likely	
  to	
  reap	
  as	
  a	
  result.	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  Startup	
  of	
  You:	
  LinkedIn	
  founder	
  Reid	
  Hoffman’s	
  book	
  extols	
  the	
  notion	
  of	
  self	
  as	
  profit	
  
center	
  whether	
  that	
  be	
  in	
  your	
  career	
  or	
  as	
  an	
  entrepreneur.	
  While	
  not	
  wholly	
  analogous,	
  
the	
  concept	
  of	
  self	
  as	
  value	
  element	
  has	
  deep	
  ties	
  to	
  the	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  concept.	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
Antilogs:	
  
	
  
Klout:	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  is	
  on	
  its	
  face	
  the	
  antithesis	
  of	
  the	
  current	
  third	
  party	
  data	
  aggregator	
  
platform	
  (i.e.	
  Facebook,	
  Twitter,	
  Instagram,	
  etc.).	
  However,	
  Klout	
  stands	
  out	
  as	
  a	
  unique	
  
case	
  study	
  because	
  it	
  speaks	
  directly	
  to	
  the	
  data	
  evaluation	
  proposition	
  and	
  monetizes	
  it	
  via	
  
a	
  supposed	
  user-­‐centric	
  platform.	
  But	
  it	
  gives	
  itself	
  away	
  as	
  being	
  avidly	
  pro-­‐vendor	
  with	
  its	
  
tagline	
  “be	
  known	
  for	
  what	
  you	
  love.”	
  	
  
	
  
Future	
  Foundation’s	
  Hyperpersonalization:	
  Melanie	
  Howard	
  of	
  The	
  Future’s	
  Foundation	
  (a	
  
recognized	
  voice	
  in	
  this	
  discussion,)	
  recently	
  published	
  a	
  piece	
  that	
  also	
  attempted	
  to	
  
extrapolate	
  the	
  potential	
  of	
  quantified	
  self	
  data.	
  	
  The	
  introduction	
  was	
  as	
  follows:	
  
	
  
“In	
  the	
  age	
  of	
  the	
  'quantified	
  self',	
  in	
  which	
  it	
  is	
  possible	
  to	
  integrate	
  the	
  manifold	
  data	
  
produced	
  by	
  our	
  Facebook	
  posts,	
  emails,	
  GPS	
  and	
  fitness	
  logs,	
  purchases,	
  preferences	
  and	
  so	
  on,	
  
we're	
  beginning	
  to	
  get	
  used	
  to	
  the	
  idea	
  that	
  our	
  data	
  can	
  be	
  useful	
  to	
  us.	
  Consumers	
  are	
  being	
  
persuaded	
  that	
  collecting	
  and	
  studying	
  the	
  hundreds	
  of	
  data	
  points	
  that	
  trail	
  behind	
  us	
  will	
  
help	
  us	
  to	
  make	
  personal	
  changes	
  to	
  lead	
  longer,	
  healthier,	
  perhaps	
  happier	
  lives.	
  And	
  
companies	
  are	
  clearly	
  convinced,	
  too:	
  Eli	
  Lilly	
  now	
  claims	
  this	
  is	
  its	
  central	
  scenario	
  for	
  
pharmaceutical	
  innovation	
  over	
  the	
  coming	
  decade.	
  Biometric	
  media	
  means	
  this	
  benign	
  fusion	
  
of	
  person	
  and	
  machine	
  will	
  be	
  moving	
  to	
  a	
  new	
  level	
  –	
  going	
  beyond	
  the	
  useful	
  to	
  create	
  new	
  
reflections	
  of	
  ourselves	
  in	
  the	
  media	
  we	
  consume.”	
  
	
  
Ms.	
  Howard	
  touches	
  upon	
  the	
  fact	
  this	
  data	
  has	
  a	
  greater	
  potential	
  purpose,	
  but	
  falls	
  short	
  
of	
  offering	
  a	
  vision	
  other	
  than	
  greater	
  personalization.	
  	
  Wearable	
  technology	
  must	
  offer	
  
more	
  than	
  personalization	
  if	
  it	
  is	
  to	
  distinguish	
  itself	
  in	
  the	
  mobile	
  device	
  market.	
  	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
Signals:	
  
	
  
The	
  Incorporated	
  Woman:	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  most	
  tangible	
  market	
  signal	
  hinting	
  at	
  the	
  potential	
  of	
  the	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  came	
  on	
  June	
  
27,	
  2014	
  in	
  the	
  Economist	
  article,	
  “The	
  Incorporated	
  Woman.”	
  The	
  overarching	
  question	
  
was,	
  “who	
  owns	
  your	
  data?”	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
An	
  excerpt	
  from	
  the	
  article	
  illustrates	
  the	
  potential	
  transition	
  quantified	
  data	
  could	
  usher	
  
in:	
  
	
  
“FACEBOOK,	
  Amazon,	
  Twitter	
  and	
  a	
  host	
  of	
  other	
  big	
  companies	
  in	
  today’s	
  “data-­‐driven	
  
economy”	
  share	
  one	
  thing	
  in	
  common:	
  they	
  make	
  a	
  living	
  from	
  harvesting	
  personal	
  data.	
  Some	
  
of	
  this	
  data	
  is	
  freely	
  given,	
  perhaps	
  too	
  freely.	
  
	
  
Such	
  issues	
  have	
  long	
  troubled	
  Jennifer	
  Lyn	
  Morone,	
  an	
  American	
  living	
  in	
  London	
  (pictured).	
  
So	
  to	
  regain	
  some	
  ownership	
  and	
  control	
  of	
  her	
  data	
  (and	
  other	
  assets	
  related	
  to	
  her	
  
existence)	
  she	
  decided	
  to	
  become	
  Jennifer	
  Lyn	
  Morone™	
  Inc	
  (JLM),	
  registered	
  like	
  all	
  savvy	
  
corporations	
  in	
  Delaware.	
  And	
  what	
  started	
  out	
  as	
  an	
  art	
  project—her	
  brief	
  as	
  part	
  of	
  a	
  
master’s	
  degree	
  at	
  London’s	
  Royal	
  College	
  of	
  Art	
  was	
  to	
  “design	
  a	
  protest”—is	
  now	
  
transforming	
  her	
  into	
  a	
  humanoid/corporate	
  hybrid.	
  
	
  
JLM	
  is	
  an	
  intriguing	
  attempt	
  to	
  establish	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  an	
  individual	
  in	
  a	
  data-­‐driven	
  economy.	
  
As	
  Ms	
  Morone’s	
  business	
  plan	
  describes	
  it,	
  JLM	
  “derives	
  value	
  from	
  three	
  sources,	
  and	
  legally	
  
protects	
  and	
  bestows	
  rights	
  upon	
  the	
  total	
  output	
  of	
  Jennifer	
  Lyn	
  Morone.””	
  
	
  
Millenials	
  and	
  Privacy:	
  
	
  
While	
  the	
  broader	
  consumer	
  audience	
  is	
  ok	
  with	
  trading	
  privacy	
  for	
  personalization	
  or	
  
privacy	
  for	
  security,	
  Millenials,	
  the	
  largest	
  consumer	
  group	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  and	
  the	
  fastest	
  
growing	
  source	
  of	
  spending	
  for	
  brands,	
  begs	
  to	
  differ.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
In	
  separate	
  studies	
  by	
  TIME	
  Magazine	
  and	
  the	
  ACLU,	
  researchers	
  saw	
  a	
  significant	
  
divergence	
  in	
  the	
  privacy	
  tradeoff	
  among	
  Millenials	
  vs	
  Gen	
  X	
  and	
  Boomers.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  “Fifty-­‐four	
  percent	
  of	
  respondents	
  said	
  the	
  leaker,	
  Edward	
  Snowden,	
  29,	
  did	
  a	
  “good	
  
thing”	
  in	
  releasing	
  information	
  about	
  the	
  government	
  programs,	
  which	
  collect	
  phone,	
  
email,	
  and	
  Internet	
  search	
  records	
  in	
  an	
  effort,	
  officials	
  say,	
  to	
  prevent	
  terrorist	
  
attacks.	
  Just	
  30	
  percent	
  disagreed.	
  
	
  
But	
  an	
  almost	
  identical	
  number	
  of	
  Americans	
  —	
  	
  53	
  percent	
  —	
  	
  still	
  said	
  he	
  should	
  be	
  
prosecuted	
  for	
  the	
  leak,	
  compared	
  to	
  28%	
  who	
  said	
  he	
  should	
  not.	
  	
  
	
  
Americans	
  aged	
  18	
  to	
  34	
  break	
  from	
  older	
  generations	
  in	
  showing	
  far	
  more	
  support	
  
for	
  Snowden’s	
  actions.	
  Just	
  41	
  percent	
  of	
  that	
  cohort	
  say	
  he	
  should	
  face	
  charges,	
  while	
  
43	
  percent	
  say	
  he	
  should	
  not.	
  Just	
  19	
  percent	
  of	
  that	
  age	
  group	
  say	
  the	
  leak	
  was	
  a	
  “bad	
  
thing.”	
  
	
  
There	
  are	
  early	
  indications	
  that	
  Millenial	
  consumers,	
  those	
  who	
  are	
  generating	
  the	
  
most	
  data	
  and	
  are	
  most	
  active	
  on	
  the	
  current	
  third-­‐party	
  data	
  value	
  platforms	
  such	
  
as	
  Facebook,	
  Twitter,	
  Instagram	
  and	
  Klout	
  are	
  the	
  most	
  likely	
  to	
  desire	
  greater	
  
control	
  of	
  their	
  data.	
  It	
  is	
  safe	
  to	
  assume	
  that	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  monetizing	
  data	
  as	
  a	
  means	
  
of	
  control	
  may	
  make	
  more	
  sense	
  than	
  arbitrarily	
  trusting	
  brands	
  to	
  “do	
  the	
  right	
  
thing”	
  with	
  their	
  electronic	
  trail.	
  
	
  
The	
  Pivot	
  to	
  Passive:	
  	
  
	
  
J	
  Walter	
  Smith,	
  Executive	
  Chairman	
  of	
  The	
  Futures	
  Company	
  (formerly	
  Yankelovich)	
  
makes	
  a	
  case	
  that	
  by	
  all	
  rights	
  should	
  be	
  placed	
  in	
  the	
  Anitlogs	
  category.	
  Except	
  that	
  
in	
  the	
  midst	
  of	
  arguing	
  that	
  most	
  consumers	
  are	
  becoming	
  more	
  passive	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  
proliferation	
  of	
  sensor-­‐based	
  technology	
  (which	
  is	
  inherently	
  antithetical	
  to	
  the	
  
Individual	
  IPO	
  idea)	
  he	
  makes	
  a	
  very	
  important	
  point.	
  
	
  
In	
  a	
  smartly-­‐worded	
  opinion	
  piece	
  Smith	
  argues	
  for	
  a	
  return	
  to	
  a	
  time	
  before	
  the	
  
Internet	
  based	
  on	
  passive	
  sensor	
  data	
  collection	
  and	
  the	
  advent	
  of	
  novel	
  
technologies	
  such	
  as	
  the	
  self-­‐driving	
  Google	
  car.	
  In	
  Smith’s	
  future	
  only	
  “hyper-­‐
compulsive,	
  technologically	
  obsessed	
  men	
  –	
  who	
  are	
  willing	
  and	
  able	
  to	
  volunteer	
  
their	
  time	
  to	
  an	
  open	
  source	
  project”	
  will	
  exert	
  any	
  real	
  control	
  on	
  what	
  goes	
  on	
  
with	
  their	
  data.	
  
	
  
He	
  supports	
  this	
  hypothesis	
  with	
  some	
  very	
  hard	
  to	
  dispute	
  observations:	
  
	
  
-­‐ Better	
  tailoring	
  experiences	
  means	
  relinquishing	
  control	
  to	
  marketers	
  
-­‐ Average	
  consumers	
  have	
  become	
  bored	
  with	
  most	
  data	
  generating	
  platforms	
  	
  
-­‐ The	
  proliferation	
  of	
  sensor	
  based	
  technologies	
  will	
  pacify	
  consumers	
  	
  
	
  
But	
  Smith	
  supports	
  his	
  theory	
  by	
  fighting	
  one	
  anachronism	
  with	
  another:	
  
	
  
“Soon,	
  little	
  will	
  go	
  unrecorded	
  by	
  the	
  'internet	
  of	
  things',	
  a	
  network	
  far	
  larger	
  and	
  
much	
  faster-­‐growing	
  than	
  the	
  'internet	
  of	
  people',	
  encompassing	
  not	
  just	
  data	
  flows	
  
among	
  objects,	
  but	
  those	
  between	
  people	
  and	
  objects	
  or	
  sensors	
  	
  
	
  
Contrast	
  this	
  with	
  the	
  classic	
  advertising	
  world	
  remembered	
  in	
  AMC's	
  hit	
  show,	
  Mad	
  
Men.	
  In	
  episode	
  after	
  episode,	
  creative	
  director	
  Don	
  Draper	
  sits	
  alone	
  in	
  his	
  office,	
  
whiskey	
  in	
  hand,	
  inventing	
  from	
  whole	
  cloth	
  the	
  marketplace	
  in	
  which	
  consumers	
  will	
  
live.	
  It's	
  fiction	
  embellished	
  for	
  dramatic	
  effect,	
  but	
  as	
  a	
  picture	
  of	
  the	
  days	
  of	
  yore,	
  
when	
  marketers	
  were	
  in	
  control,	
  it	
  provides	
  a	
  realistic	
  point	
  of	
  contrast.	
  
	
  
Ye	
  t	
  this	
  contrast	
  is	
  outdated.	
  What's	
  germane	
  for	
  tomorrow's	
  marketplace	
  was	
  
foreshadowed	
  unintentionally	
  by	
  Time	
  when	
  it	
  placed	
  'You'	
  on	
  its	
  cover	
  against	
  a	
  
background	
  image	
  of	
  a	
  desktop	
  screen.	
  Passive	
  digital	
  engages	
  consumers	
  very	
  
differently	
  from	
  active	
  digital.	
  A	
  screen	
  demands	
  active	
  engagement.	
  Consumers	
  must	
  
touch	
  it,	
  key	
  information	
  into	
  it,	
  and	
  be	
  involved	
  with	
  it	
  in	
  many	
  ways.	
  Sensors	
  perform	
  
passive	
  monitoring.	
  Consumers	
  do	
  little,	
  often	
  nothing.	
  Sensors	
  detect,	
  report	
  and	
  
trigger.	
  
	
  
What	
  digital	
  technologies	
  can	
  do	
  now	
  to	
  capture	
  the	
  moment	
  was	
  impractical	
  and	
  
unaffordable	
  in	
  years	
  past.	
  Soon,	
  though,	
  little	
  will	
  go	
  unrecorded	
  by	
  the	
  'internet	
  of	
  
things',	
  a	
  network	
  far	
  larger	
  and	
  much	
  faster-­‐growing	
  than	
  the	
  'internet	
  of	
  people',	
  
encompassing	
  not	
  just	
  data	
  flows	
  among	
  objects,	
  but	
  those	
  between	
  people	
  and	
  objects,	
  
or	
  sensors,	
  too.”	
  
	
  
Smith’s	
  logic,	
  which	
  is	
  not	
  uncommon	
  in	
  the	
  marketplace,	
  assumes	
  consumers	
  are	
  
passive	
  participants	
  in	
  the	
  marketplace	
  when	
  in	
  reality	
  they	
  have	
  clearly	
  
demonstrated	
  not	
  only	
  an	
  clear	
  knowledge	
  of	
  some	
  tangible	
  value	
  for	
  their	
  data,	
  but	
  
also	
  a	
  generational	
  shift	
  in	
  attitudes	
  towards	
  greater	
  emphasis	
  on	
  protecting	
  that	
  
value.	
  Contrary	
  to	
  Smith’s	
  cynical	
  dystopian	
  future,	
  consumer	
  signals	
  tell	
  us	
  that	
  
they	
  will	
  likely	
  be	
  less	
  inclined	
  to	
  freely	
  hand	
  over	
  their	
  information	
  rather	
  than	
  
letting	
  it	
  be	
  passively	
  collected.	
  Smith	
  as	
  archetype	
  for	
  a	
  more	
  cynical	
  view	
  on	
  the	
  
future	
  of	
  data	
  collection	
  not	
  only	
  undercuts	
  the	
  collective	
  hope	
  for	
  quantified	
  self,	
  it	
  
signals	
  a	
  reversion	
  in	
  the	
  face	
  of	
  greater	
  human-­‐machine	
  interface.	
  The	
  
commonality	
  of	
  this	
  perspective	
  can,	
  in	
  a	
  way,	
  be	
  seen	
  as	
  a	
  confirmation	
  of	
  the	
  
opportunity.	
  
	
  
Smith	
  is	
  likely	
  correct	
  in	
  his	
  view	
  about	
  the	
  ubiquity	
  of	
  sensor	
  technology	
  in	
  the	
  not	
  
too	
  distant	
  future.	
  And	
  this	
  bodes	
  well	
  for	
  the	
  Individual	
  IPO	
  concept	
  as	
  they	
  will	
  act	
  
as	
  data	
  collection	
  points	
  throughout	
  the	
  larger	
  physical	
  network.	
  	
  Consumers	
  
already	
  live	
  with	
  a	
  bevvy	
  of	
  sensors	
  in	
  their	
  daily	
  life	
  such	
  as	
  video	
  cameras,	
  store	
  
theft	
  detectors	
  and	
  the	
  like.	
  F	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
Shawn	
  Buckles	
  &	
  The	
  World	
  Economic	
  Forum:	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
In	
  a	
  2011	
  report	
  the	
  World	
  Economic	
  Forum	
  postulated	
  in	
  its	
  report,	
  “Personal	
  
Data:	
  the	
  Emergence	
  of	
  a	
  New	
  Asset	
  Class”	
  how	
  ever	
  escalating	
  data	
  profiles	
  may	
  
become	
  “the	
  new	
  oil”	
  for	
  individuals.	
  
	
  
“This	
  personal	
  data	
  –	
  digital	
  data	
  created	
  by	
  and	
  about	
  people	
  –	
  is	
  generating	
  a	
  new	
  
wave	
  of	
  opportunity	
  for	
  economic	
  and	
  societal	
  value	
  creation.	
  The	
  types,	
  quantity	
  
and	
  value	
  of	
  personal	
  data	
  being	
  collected	
  are	
  vast:	
  our	
  profiles	
  and	
  demographic	
  data	
  
from	
  bank	
  accounts	
  to	
  medical	
  records	
  to	
  employment	
  data.	
  Our	
  Web	
  searches	
  and	
  
sites	
  visited,	
  including	
  our	
  likes	
  and	
  dislikes	
  and	
  purchase	
  histories.	
  Our	
  tweets,	
  texts,	
  
emails,	
  phone	
  calls,	
  photos	
  and	
  videos	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  the	
  coordinates	
  of	
  our	
  real-­‐world	
  
locations.	
  The	
  list	
  continues	
  to	
  grow.	
  Firms	
  collect	
  and	
  use	
  this	
  data	
  to	
  support	
  
individualised	
  service-­‐delivery	
  business	
  models	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  monetised.	
  Governments	
  
employ	
  personal	
  data	
  to	
  provide	
  critical	
  public	
  services	
  more	
  efficiently	
  and	
  effectively.	
  
Researchers	
  accelerate	
  the	
  development	
  of	
  new	
  drugs	
  and	
  treatment	
  protocols.	
  End	
  
users	
  benefit	
  from	
  free,	
  personalized	
  consumer	
  experiences	
  such	
  as	
  Internet	
  search,	
  
social	
  networking	
  or	
  buying	
  recommendations.	
  
	
  
And	
  that	
  is	
  just	
  the	
  beginning.	
  Increasing	
  the	
  control	
  that	
  individuals	
  have	
  over	
  the	
  
manner	
  in	
  which	
  their	
  personal	
  data	
  is	
  collected,	
  managed	
  and	
  shared	
  will	
  spur	
  a	
  host	
  
of	
  new	
  services	
  and	
  applications.	
  As	
  some	
  put	
  it,	
  personal	
  data	
  will	
  be	
  the	
  new	
  “oil”	
  –	
  a	
  
valuable	
  resource	
  of	
  the	
  21st	
  century.	
  It	
  will	
  emerge	
  as	
  a	
  new	
  asset	
  class	
  touching	
  all	
  
aspects	
  of	
  society.”	
  
	
  
With	
  this	
  in	
  mind	
  the	
  British	
  paper	
  The	
  Guardian	
  reported	
  on	
  how	
  a	
  Dutch	
  student	
  
decided	
  to	
  get	
  out	
  ahead	
  of	
  his	
  data	
  being	
  sold	
  in	
  bulk	
  on	
  the	
  cheap	
  and	
  instead	
  sold	
  
his	
  “digital	
  soul”	
  for	
  a	
  greater	
  amount.	
  
	
  
“Dutch	
  student Shawn Buckles has	
  tackled	
  the	
  issue	
  head	
  on	
  with	
  his	
  decision	
  to sell his
data soul at	
  auction.	
  He	
  received	
  £288	
  from	
  website	
  The	
  Next	
  Web.	
  He	
  says	
  that	
  the	
  
website	
  will	
  use	
  his	
  data	
  to	
  highlight	
  privacy	
  issues	
  at	
  their	
  next	
  conference.	
  
Buckles'	
  data	
  bundle	
  included	
  all	
  sorts	
  of	
  private	
  information	
  -­‐	
  everything	
  from	
  
browsing	
  data	
  to	
  email	
  conversations.	
  
	
  
A	
  sum	
  like	
  £288	
  is	
  obviously	
  not	
  to	
  be	
  sniffed	
  at,	
  but	
  can	
  anyone	
  receive	
  such	
  a	
  payoff?	
  
Buckles	
  told	
  us:	
  
	
  
I’ve	
  read	
  that	
  a	
  persons’	
  data	
  goes	
  for	
  under	
  50	
  cents	
  at	
  the	
  moment,	
  so	
  I	
  reckon	
  I’ve	
  
added	
  lots	
  of	
  value	
  to	
  my	
  data.	
  On	
  the	
  other	
  hand,	
  I’ve	
  sold	
  my	
  most	
  intimate	
  
information.	
  I	
  don’t	
  know	
  if	
  there’s	
  any	
  fair	
  amount	
  for	
  that.	
  
	
  
Buckles	
  is	
  right:	
  when	
  your	
  data	
  is	
  sold,	
  no	
  one	
  receives	
  that	
  kind	
  of	
  money	
  for	
  it.	
  This	
  
is	
  because	
  brands	
  don’t	
  buy	
  individual	
  data,	
  they	
  buy	
  individuals’	
  data	
  in	
  bundles	
  and	
  
that	
  makes	
  it	
  very	
  cheap.”	
  
	
  
When	
  one	
  considers	
  the	
  massive	
  leap	
  forward	
  quantified	
  data	
  will	
  likely	
  make,	
  it	
  
stands	
  to	
  reason	
  that	
  one	
  has	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  not	
  only	
  gain	
  greater	
  control	
  over	
  his	
  or	
  
her	
  data,	
  but	
  potentially	
  turn	
  the	
  tables	
  on	
  the	
  current	
  third-­‐party	
  
aggregation/monetization	
  scheme.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
Assumptions:	
  
	
  
It	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  visit	
  critical	
  assumptions	
  that	
  lay	
  the	
  groundwork	
  for	
  this	
  idea.	
  
	
  
1. The	
  quantified	
  self/wearable	
  technology	
  application	
  will	
  look,	
  act	
  and	
  feel	
  
distinct	
  from	
  current	
  smart	
  devices.	
  This	
  is	
  as	
  opposed	
  to	
  Samsung’s	
  earlier	
  
attempt	
  to	
  market	
  a	
  smart	
  watch,	
  which	
  has	
  little	
  functionality	
  let	
  alone	
  little	
  
differentiating	
  customization.	
  If	
  the	
  iWatch	
  is	
  merely	
  a	
  portal	
  to	
  stream	
  texts,	
  
IM,	
  Bluetooth	
  and	
  other	
  pre-­‐existing	
  applications,	
  wearable	
  technology	
  will	
  
become	
  an	
  add	
  on	
  versus	
  a	
  commercial	
  platform.	
  
2. The	
  form	
  factor	
  develops	
  to	
  accommodate	
  intense,	
  multi-­‐application	
  
functionality	
  like	
  current	
  smart	
  devices.	
  
3. Developers	
  see	
  the	
  same	
  monetization	
  opportunity	
  they	
  saw	
  in	
  iPhone	
  and	
  
Android.	
  	
   	
  
4. The	
  data	
  being	
  captured	
  can	
  be	
  monetized	
  at	
  a	
  level	
  that	
  entices	
  consumers	
  
into	
  participating.	
  	
  
5. Interaction	
  with	
  external	
  sensor-­‐based	
  technology	
  such	
  as	
  iBeacon	
  will	
  
become	
  natural	
  and	
  not	
  creepy	
  or	
  invasive.	
  
	
  
	
   	
  
Recommendation:	
  
	
  
In	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  timing	
  is	
  everything,	
  it	
  would	
  appear	
  developers	
  and	
  brands	
  looking	
  
to	
  engage	
  this	
  opportunity	
  will	
  have	
  at	
  least	
  a	
  brief	
  window	
  during	
  proliferation	
  and	
  
adoption	
  to	
  engage	
  in	
  research	
  and	
  development.	
  	
  The	
  time	
  horizon	
  could	
  possible	
  
extend	
  further	
  out	
  given	
  the	
  radical	
  change	
  this	
  could	
  represent	
  and	
  the	
  time	
  it	
  
would	
  take	
  for	
  most	
  consumers	
  to	
  adapt	
  to	
  and	
  engage	
  with	
  this	
  way	
  of	
  life.	
  	
  
	
  
With	
  this	
  in	
  mind,	
  it	
  would	
  be	
  prudent	
  for	
  brands	
  to	
  begin	
  auditing	
  its	
  data	
  exchange	
  
compensation	
  model	
  it	
  currently	
  shares	
  with	
  consumers	
  and	
  test	
  alternate	
  models	
  
that	
  more	
  closely	
  align	
  with	
  this	
  direction	
  so	
  they	
  are	
  prepared	
  to	
  go	
  to	
  market	
  
when	
  this	
  shift	
  begins	
  to	
  take	
  place.	
  	
  
	
  
Additional	
  next	
  steps:	
  
	
  
-­‐ Business	
  category	
  evaluation	
  to	
  identify	
  those	
  most	
  likely	
  to	
  benefit	
  from	
  this	
  
direct	
  payment	
  method	
  in	
  the	
  near	
  term.	
  
	
  
-­‐ Hypothesize	
  and	
  articulate	
  additional	
  business	
  model	
  concepts	
  outside	
  those	
  
listed	
  in	
  this	
  document.	
  	
  
	
  
-­‐ Model	
  the	
  physical/technological	
  transaction	
  on	
  a	
  per	
  brand	
  basis	
  as	
  a	
  first	
  step	
  
prototype.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  

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Individual_IPO

  • 1.                                         The  Individual  IPO     James  Lanyon     Draft  1  (unedited)     07.10.14      
  • 2. Contents:     The  opportunity     Why  should  anyone  believe  this?     Four  Stages  of  Acceptance:   -­‐ Stage  1:  Proliferation   -­‐ Stage  2:  Adoption   -­‐ Stage  3:  Standardization   -­‐ Stage  4:  Commercialization     The  Individual  IPO   -­‐ Analogs   o Progressive     o FICO   -­‐ Antilogs   o Klout   o Hyperpersonalization   -­‐ Signals   o The  Incorporated  Woman   o Millenials  and  Privacy   o The  Pivot  to  Passive   o Shawn  Buckles  &  The  World  Economic  Forum     Assumptions              
  • 3. The  opportunity     Smart  devices  are  about  to  take  a  significant  evolutionary  step.  The  increase  in  the  device’s   ability  to  capture  and  quantify  individual  data  (physical  function,  location  an  interaction),   combined  with  early  indication  that  technology  providers  see  smaller  business  models  in   quantified  data,  can  and  likely  will  lead  to  the  opportunity  for  consumers  to  create  their   own  personal  economy.       In  the  future,  consumers,  as  individuals,  will  have  the  opportunity  to  control,  package  and   sell  for  value  their  own  personal  data.  Conversely,  by  commercializing  their  own  data,   consumers  will  also  have  the  ability  to  exert  greater  control  over  their  personal  data  privacy.     This  is  as  opposed  to  the  current  consumer-­‐data  paradigm  whereby  little  perceive   commercial  value  exists  at  the  individual  level  (i.e.  I  am  an  economy  of  me  that  I  can   leverage  for  my  own  profit)  and  privacy  concerns  tend  to  exist  but  are  exchange  for  less   tangible  benefits  such  as  perceived  personalization  and  security.         Why  should  anyone  believe  this?     September  2014  will  likely  signal  a  turning  point  in  consumer  electronics.  Apple  is  expected   to  go  public  with  its  wearable  tech  smart  watch  concept  in  addition  to  a  revamped  iPhone  6   and  likely  (if  history  is  any  teacher)  iOS  updates.  The  anticipation  is  not  only  palpable,  but  it   is  provocative.  Competitors  such  as  Google  and  Samsung  have  already  moved  to  try  and   beat  Apple  to  market  or  at  the  very  least,  claim  the  high  ground  in  the  conversation.       Those  expecting  consumers  to  start  snatching  up  iWatch’s  (iWatch  is  the  placeholder  name)   and  ensuing  competitors/imitators  left  and  right  may  be  disappointed  at  initial  adoption.     2014  global  iPhone  sales  and  the  ubiquitous  iPhone  brand  obscure  the  relatively  meager   sales  performance  of  the  first  iPhone  in  2007.  Whereas  Apple  sold  almost  44  million  units  in   Q214  alone,  Q307  saw  iPhone  sales  of  just  270,000.      In  fact  iPhone  quarterly  sales  didn’t   break  the  ten  million  units  mark  until  Q410  –  more  than  three  years  after  its  introduction.       As  David  said  in  the  movie  Prometheus,  “big  things  have  small  beginnings…”  The   evolutionary  process  that  takes  place  between  introduction  and  market  absorption  lays  the   foundation  for  the  Individual  IPO  concept.    Before  we  can  understand  and  dimensionalize   this  opportunity,  it’s  important  to  visit  two  areas:     1. Patterns  of  adoptions  and  implementation   2. Analogs,  anitlogs  and  signals     Four  stages  of  acceptance:     Consumers  looking  for  a  rich  mobile  gaming  experience  prior  to  2007  had  few  real  options.   Monochromatic  screens  and  small  memory  footprints  allowed  for  one-­‐dimensional  games   such  as  snake.  Other  non-­‐telephony  functions  were  similarly  one-­‐dimensional.  Phones  were,   at  the  time,  well,  phones.  Conversely,  today,  telephony  is  likely  one  of  the  least  important   elements  of  a  mobile  device.       It  is  common  knowledge  that  the  iPhone  and  ensuing  Android  platform  radically  reshaped   non-­‐telephony  device  interaction  and  experience.  Many  credit  innovations  such  as  Gorilla   Glass,  multi-­‐touch  keyboards  and  enhanced  processors  with  driving  this  transformation.  
  • 4. While  it  is  true  these  aspects  enabled  the  mobile  device  revolution,  there  was  a  much  more   significant  force  at  play  –  one  that  will  need  to  take  place  for  wearable  technology  to  have   the  same  sort  of  success  that  mobile  devices  have  experienced.  Just  as  important  was  the   element  of  standardization.       Wearable  technology  will  need  to  traverse  four  specific  stages  before  it  has  the  opportunity   to  deliver  the  Individual  IPO  concept.     Stage  1:  Proliferation     Using  the  Rogers  model  as  a  starting  point,  we  can  assume  a  single  wearable  technology   platform  such  as  iWatch  will  need  to  reach  a  10%  to  15%  marketshare  before  it  can  begin  to   dictate  terms  of  engagement  to  the  eco-­‐system  of  third  party  investors  and  developers  that   will  want  to  begin  growing  the  system.  This  is  roughly  equivalent  to  absorption  of   “innovator”  consumers  and  significant  market  penetration  into  “early  adopter”  consumers.   This  is  when  the  early  majority  will  be  inspecting  its  more  intrepid  counterparts  when   deciding  whether  to  get  in  or  stay  out.       There  are  numerous  sources  tracking  smart  phone  penetration  as  part  of  the  mobile  market   with  a  consensus  range  of  between  62%  and  69%.  While  on  the  high  end  of  that  range,   comScore  was  the  only  available  resource  to  offer  an  actual  enumeration.  Using  comScore’s   hard  projections  for  mobile  device  users  we  see  a  total  universe  of  239.5  million  mobile   users  and  159.8  million  smart  device  users.  Using  these  numbers  it  is  possible  to  estimate   proliferation  to  occur  once  a  single  wearable  technology  platform  has  between  16  million   and  24  million  users  (in  today’s  mobile  penetration  environment  –  projections  should  index   for  increased  smart  device  penetration  over  time  relative  to  speed  to  market).     These  aren’t  just  any  16  million  users  though.  The  race  will  be  on  to  find  16  to  24  million   differentiated  users  –  those  not  merely  replicating  existing  usage  and  habits  that  already   exist  on  their  smart  device.       Stage  2:  Adoption     A  key  determinant  of  wearable  technology  success  will  be  its  functional  differentiation  from   smart  devices  already  in  market.    The  inevitable  question  all  consumers  will  ask  themselves   is  why  they  should  pay  hundreds  of  dollars  for  a  watch  if  it  only  replicates  the  functionality   their  existing  smart  device.  Network  data  providers  who  have  traditionally  subsidized  the   smart  device  market  will  likely  ask  the  same  question.  “Don’t  we  already  subsidize  the   handheld  version?”     With  smart  device  penetration  at  68%,  it  is  safe  to  say  the  vast  majority  of  consumers  have   at  least  an  intermediate  familiarity  with  device  function  and  potential,  making  ongoing   platform  innovation  incremental.  The  larger  leaps  are  now  the  domain  of  the  third  party   market  makers/developers  such  as  MonkeyParking.       While  it  might  make  marketing  sense  to  attach  wearable  technology  as  part  of  a  larger  eco-­‐ system,  those  16  to  24  million  differentiated  users  will  not  go  to  the  brand  that  shows  how   their  wearable  technology  is  like  their  smart  device.  Rather,  the  race  will  go  the  brand  that   shows  how  their  wearable  technology  is  not  like  their  smart  device.  Interoperability  with   other  smart  components  will  be  convenient  and  in  the  long  run  may  be  pre-­‐requisite.  It  will   not  however  be  determinant  at  the  beginning.    
  • 5.   This  is  not  to  say  that  traditional  apps  should  not  or  will  not  exist  on  next-­‐gen  wearable   technology.  That  is  likely  desirable.  However,  their  presence  will  not  be  the  key   differentiator  and  those  who  pursue  a  strategy  of  enhancing  an  already  existing  customer   experience  such  as  smart  phone  apps  ignore  a  fundamental  reality.       Adoption  and  the  race  to  proliferation  will  go  to  the  provider  who  understands  the   difference  between  wearable  technology  and  smart  phones/devices.  Whereas  smart  devices   offer  users  a  whole  new  level  of  technology  utility,  wearable  technology  will  offer  a  whole   new  level  of  physical  interaction  between  the  user  and  the  technology.       Similar  to  apps,  heightened  levels  of  utility  are  achievable  on  wearable  technology.  The  fact   that  heightened  utility  already  exists  elsewhere  excludes  it  from  the  ability  to  determine   differentiation  among  users  as  brands  race  towards  market  dominance.  In  short,  replicating   utility  will  likely  only  inhibit  adoption  or  potentially  fracture  the  existing  smart  device   market.  Embracing  the  concept  of  heightened  interoperability  between  user  and  technology   will  allow  wearable  technology  to  either  stand  on  its  own  or  justify  existing  as  a  part  of  a   consumer  eco  system.       Stage  3:  Standardization       While  we  celebrate  Steve  Jobs’  memory  and  lionize  his  vision,  we  overlook  the  fact  that  he   originally  tried  to  keep  the  app  store  off  the  iPhone.  Yet  apps  are  easily  the  defining  element   of  all  current  smart  devices.  They  offer  users  the  ability  to  conform  their  device  in  an  ever-­‐ changing  way  and  scale  it  accordingly.  Apps,  for  the  user,  are  the  difference  between  a  cell   phone  and  a  smart  phone.  Apps,  for  the  market,  create  standardization  –  a  critical  initial   element  for  technology  success  in  this  category.  Prior  to  the  iPhone,  mobile  developers   faced  a  daunting  array  of  proprietary  operating  systems  on  meager  platforms  with  no   discernable  point  of  distribution.  The  iPhone  with  its  App  store  gave  developers  something   to  rally  around  as  did  Android  much  later  in  the  game.  They  knew  what  they  were   programming  for  and  how  they  could  get  their  idea  to  market.       Standardization  could  also  be  seen  as  consolidation  as  it  likely  means  less  demand  for   proprietary,  limited  functionality  devices.    More  and  more,  brands  such  as  Jawbone,  Pebble   and  Fitbit  will  be  forced  to  answer  the  question  of  what  their  devices  provide  that  isn’t   already  provided  by  the  more  open,  customizable  platform.  While  proprietary  systems  may   look  to  create  interoperability  and  offer  improved  product  performance,  that  increased   performance  likely  will  not  be  enough  to  counter  the  exponentially  greater  functionality  of   the  open,  customizable  platform.  We  must  also  take  into  account  the  trade  off  that  exists   between  modular  flexibility  and  single  function  performance  devices.  Even  though   proprietary  closed  system  devices  may  initially  offer  a  greater  singular  point  of     performance,  they  remain  vulnerable  to  the  expectation  that  the  flexible  platform  will   improve  over  time.       As  Fast  Company  noted  in  its  3.29.14  article,  “Why  Nike  Is  (Probably)  Killing  the  Fuelband”:     “If  you're  surprised,  you  shouldn't  be.  Wearable  fitness  trackers  like  the  Nike  FuelBand  are   about  to  go  the  way  of  the  dodo.  “    
  • 6. Once  the  industry  rallies  around  two  to  three  core  platform  providers,  developers  will  have   a  stationary  target  by  which  to  plan,  develop  and  monetize  a  new  slate  of  business  ideas   paving  the  way  for  Commercialization.     Stage  4:  Commercialization     Once  standardization  has  taken  place,  the  market  will  then  turn  towards  driving  newer  and   more  innovative  business  models.    It  wasn’t  until  the  launch  of  iPhone  4  I  June  2010  that   iPhone  sales  broke  out  paving  the  way  for  robust  app  development  and  app  store  growth.       Since  the  introduction  of  iPhone  4  the  market  has  seen  (through  Q214):     88%  of  global  iPhone  sales       92%  of  apps  introduced  to  the  App  Store           It  is  important  to  note  that  the  transformation  from  a  smaller  part  of  the  consumer  market   playing  with  and  auditing  the  product  (iPhones  2,  3G,  3Gs)  to  the  bulk  of  the  market   accepting  the  product  (4,  4s,  5,  5s,  5c)  paves  the  way  for  larger  market  commercialization   through  fast  followers  such  as  Google  and  its  Android  platform.  2009  represents  the   beginning  of  global  Android  sales.       Predictably,  2009  and  2010  saw  Android  sales  at  69,000,000  or  4.6%  of  global  sales   through  2013.  2011,  2012  and  2013  represented  95.4%  of  Android  sales  over  that  same  
  • 7. period  repeating  the  trend  line  showing  the  progression  from  a  small  handful  of   adventurous  consumers  playing  with  the  product  so  the  broader  market  can  peer  over  their   shoulders  and  see  if  the  product  lives  up  to  its  hype.             If  the  iWatch  and  its  fast  follower  competitors  is  a  truly  distinct  product  in  the  marketplace,   it  stands  to  reason  the  wearable  technology  category  will  follow  this  same  path.         0   100   200   300   400   500   600   700   800   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   Android   iOS  
  • 8. The  Individual  IPO     At  the  heart  of  the  wearable  technology  phenomenon  is  the  idea  of  the  quantified  self.  This   is  the  key  differentiator  mentioned  above.    Most  of  the  current  chatter  revolves  around  the   notion  of  health.  Health  and  the  ability  to  track  one’s  physical  movement  is  a  sensible  first   approach.  But  it  is  only  one  of  many  potential  opportunities  wearable  technology  will  likely   offer.       The  concept  of  the  individual  IPO  is  the  extreme  logical  end  of  the  notion  that  individual   consumers’  data  (via  the  quantified  self  principle)  has  value  much  in  the  same  way  a   company’s  products  or  services  have  value.  Your  personal  data  can  be  merchandised  on  a   broader  marketplace  for  payment,  discount  or  barter/trade.    At  a  given  point  a  person  who   has  aggregated  a  significant  amount  of  data  can  package  himself  or  herself  for  an  initial   public  offering  allowing  brands  and  marketers  to  bid  on  their  information  in  its  various   forms.    Your  data  value  would  rise  and  flow  over  time  based  on  how  your  actions  affect  your   perceived  value.       This  is  in  contrast  to  today’s  device/online  driven  world  whereby  user-­‐generated  data  is   generally  owned  and  merchandised  by  third  parties  via  free  services  such  as  Facebook.       The  discussion  of  the  Health  App  offers  hints  as  to  how  this  may  begin.           When  you  match  the  dynamic  aspects  of  wearable  technology  against  the  dynamics  of  the   healthcare  vertical  certain  opportunities  begin  to  take  shape.  More  and  more,  healthcare   providers  in  managed  practices  have  been  looking  for  ways  to  provide  more  consistent  care   with  greater  convenience  and  at  a  lower  cost.  It’s  easy  to  conceive  of  a  business  model   whereby,  for  a  nominal  regular  fee,  a  nurse  practitioner  will  review  your  data,  make  any   notations  and  store  it  in  your  file  as  well  as  flagging  any  irregularities.  This  is  in  addition  to   the  routine  doctor’s  visit.  Health  insurance  providers  could  potentially  pay  the  fee  making  it   free  of  charge  to  the  individual.         Taking  it  a  step  further,  we  can  also  see  the  value  of  an  independent  business  model   whereby  a  health  insurance  provider  offers  a  policy  holder  potential  discounts  on  the   grounds  he  stream  his  health  information  to  the  provider  (including  GPS  data  as  well  as   biometric  quantification).  This  would  work  as  a  two  way  street  behavioral  management  tool   for  a  provider  looking  to  reduce  payments  and  encourage  healthier  living.    A  month  of   nothing  but  strong  data  points  could  reduce  a  premium  payment  in  the  form  of  rebate  at  the   end  of  the  year.  Conversely,  a  month  of  bad  data  in  the  form  of  stops  at  various  fast  food   restaurants,  reduced  sleep  levels,  higher  blood  pressure,  etc.  could  result  in  an  increased   premium  that  would  be  due  at  the  end  of  the  year.  The  policyholder’s  actions  would  dictate   whether  he  would  receive  a  sizable  policy  refund  at  the  end  of  the  year  or  a  massive  balloon   payment  based  on  a  series  of  very  unhealthy  indulgences.  The  individual’s  daily  life  and  
  • 9. subsequent  rewards  or  penalties  in  effect  transforms  him  from  a  consumer  to  a  market.       Wearable  technology  has  the  potential  to  enable  this  sort  of  a  business  model.         Retail  fashion  is  one  of  many  vertical  markets  that  could  vie  for  your  information.  Imagine   the  ability  to  make  wardrobe  suggestions  based  on  the  analysis  of  a  person’s  daily  life.   Heading  out  to  dinner  at  certain  restaurant  followed  by  drinks  at  a  specific  bar?  The  retail   brand  could  recommend  combinations  based  on  your  personal  lifestyle  as  well  as  accessing   data  from  others  who  have  frequented  the  same  locations  –  but  only  if  you  grant  it  access  to   your  information.    As  these  personal  data  markets  begin  to  add  up,  the  individual   transforms  once  again  into  a  singular  economy.  It  will  be  the  various  elements  within  the   economy  that  drive  the  value  of  the  Individual  IPO.     The  fixation  on  the  third  party  platform  value  generator  model  makes  it  easy  to  either   overlook  or  misconstrue  consumer  awareness  of  the  value  of  the  data  they  create.  It  is  not   uncommon  to  hear  about  how  consumers  either  don’t  understand  or  don’t  care  about  their   own  data.  This  couldn’t  be  further  from  the  truth.  In  fact  a  recent  study  by  SAS  shows  that   consumer  clearly  understand  some  relative  value  for  the  data  they  create.  Four  data  points   from  the  study  show  an  intersection  of  considerations:     • 71%  said  recent  news  reports  have  increased  concerns  over  data  privacy   • 60%  said  they  expect  companies  to  expect  their  preferences  and  needs   • 38%  reported  a  decrease  in  the  number  of  irrelevant  messages  they  received   • 59%  said  that  businesses  were  getting  better  at  personalizing  messages  for  them     It’s  clear  that  consumers  are  at  some  level  aware  their  information  has  value  and  they   understand  they  are  trading  the  data  in  return  for  more  personalization.    While   personalization  is  important  in  daily  life,  it  is,  at  best,  a  secondary  benefit  and  not  always   guaranteed.  While  there  is  no  publicly  available  research  to  substantiate  the  claim,  it  is  safe   to  assume  that,  given  the  choice  between  trading  data  for  personalization  and  trading  data   for  financial  compensation,  consumers  would  overwhelmingly  choose  the  compensation.   This  is  the  reality  that  portends  to  upend  the  current  data  value  exchange  in  favor  of  the   consumer  should  commercialization  of  open-­‐source  wearable  platforms  enable  the   opportunity.     Data  privacy  is  a  core  element  of  understanding  this  opportunity.  In  the  context  of  data,   privacy  is  synonymous  with  control  or  ownership.    Despite  a  seemingly  endless  stream  of   headlines  like,  “Report:  NSA  Used  Heartbleed  to  Spy  on  People  for  Years”  and  “Some  Shrug   at  NSA  Snooping,  Privacy  is  Dead…”  there’s  been  little  public  outcry.  Every  subsequent   release  by  Eric  Snowden  is  met  with  a  counterweight  of  public  silence.  Why  is  that?  Is  it   because  individuals  don’t  care?  Is  it  because  the  technological  nature  of  data  privacy  makes   the  issue  “out  of  sight,  out  of  mind?”  Both  of  these  explanations  may  play  a  smaller  role.   However,  the  larger  truth  is  that  many  individuals  understand  they  are  making  a  trade,  that   they  are  in  a  market-­‐based  situation  whereby  they  are  trading  their  data  privacy  for   perceived  security  against  some  form  of  attack.  The  common  refrain  when  consumers  are   asked  about  snooping  or  eavesdropping  seems  to  be,  “I’m  not  doing  anything  wrong  so  why   should  I  be  worried?”  This  attitude  is  in  and  of  itself  a  classic  first  move  in  the  context  of  the   Nash  Equilibrium  whereby  two  parties  with  equal  amounts  of  information  attempt  to  move   towards  the  middle  in  a  mutually  beneficial  exchange.    For  many  who  grew  up  pre  9-­‐11,  a   sense  of  helping  avert  another  catastrophic  attach  is  likely  more  tangible  and  more  valuable   than  holding  onto  their  data  which  would  otherwise  have  little  value  if  left  sitting  in  private.    
  • 10.   Given  the  fact  data  has  an  established  value  in  the  mind  of  the  consumer,  it  is  important  to   look  for  three  key  factors  to  help  substantiate  the  Individual  IPO  proposition:     1. Analogs:  Are  there  already  business  models  or  products/services  that  have  a   discernable  relationship  to  the  idea?   2. Antilogs:  Are  there  current  business  models  that  sit  in  opposition  to  the  idea  and   how  has  their  relative  success  or  failure  help  us  understand  the  opportunity?   3. Signals:  Are  there  blips  or  potential  proof  points  on  the  radar  that  hint  at  what’s  to   come?        
  • 11. Analogs:     Progressive  Insurance  Snapshot  program:       Progressive  has  already  successfully  launched  a  program  whereby  policy  holders  trade  data   aggregated  through  a  device  placed  inside  the  car  for  savings  and  discounts.             Credit  Scores:  FICO  scores  as  tracked  by  the  “Big  3”  credit  reporting  groups  already   represent  an  exchange,  albeit  involuntary,  of  data  for  financial  benefit.  While  the  FICO   scoring  system  is  at  best  opaque  and  indecipherable,  its  bottom  line  is  clear  –  the  more   responsible  actions  that  can  be  tracked  via  a  person’s  financial  data,  the  more  financial   benefits  they  are  likely  to  reap  as  a  result.       The  Startup  of  You:  LinkedIn  founder  Reid  Hoffman’s  book  extols  the  notion  of  self  as  profit   center  whether  that  be  in  your  career  or  as  an  entrepreneur.  While  not  wholly  analogous,   the  concept  of  self  as  value  element  has  deep  ties  to  the  Individual  IPO  concept.        
  • 12. Antilogs:     Klout:       The  Individual  IPO  is  on  its  face  the  antithesis  of  the  current  third  party  data  aggregator   platform  (i.e.  Facebook,  Twitter,  Instagram,  etc.).  However,  Klout  stands  out  as  a  unique   case  study  because  it  speaks  directly  to  the  data  evaluation  proposition  and  monetizes  it  via   a  supposed  user-­‐centric  platform.  But  it  gives  itself  away  as  being  avidly  pro-­‐vendor  with  its   tagline  “be  known  for  what  you  love.”       Future  Foundation’s  Hyperpersonalization:  Melanie  Howard  of  The  Future’s  Foundation  (a   recognized  voice  in  this  discussion,)  recently  published  a  piece  that  also  attempted  to   extrapolate  the  potential  of  quantified  self  data.    The  introduction  was  as  follows:     “In  the  age  of  the  'quantified  self',  in  which  it  is  possible  to  integrate  the  manifold  data   produced  by  our  Facebook  posts,  emails,  GPS  and  fitness  logs,  purchases,  preferences  and  so  on,   we're  beginning  to  get  used  to  the  idea  that  our  data  can  be  useful  to  us.  Consumers  are  being   persuaded  that  collecting  and  studying  the  hundreds  of  data  points  that  trail  behind  us  will   help  us  to  make  personal  changes  to  lead  longer,  healthier,  perhaps  happier  lives.  And   companies  are  clearly  convinced,  too:  Eli  Lilly  now  claims  this  is  its  central  scenario  for   pharmaceutical  innovation  over  the  coming  decade.  Biometric  media  means  this  benign  fusion   of  person  and  machine  will  be  moving  to  a  new  level  –  going  beyond  the  useful  to  create  new   reflections  of  ourselves  in  the  media  we  consume.”     Ms.  Howard  touches  upon  the  fact  this  data  has  a  greater  potential  purpose,  but  falls  short   of  offering  a  vision  other  than  greater  personalization.    Wearable  technology  must  offer   more  than  personalization  if  it  is  to  distinguish  itself  in  the  mobile  device  market.          
  • 13. Signals:     The  Incorporated  Woman:       The  most  tangible  market  signal  hinting  at  the  potential  of  the  Individual  IPO  came  on  June   27,  2014  in  the  Economist  article,  “The  Incorporated  Woman.”  The  overarching  question   was,  “who  owns  your  data?”           An  excerpt  from  the  article  illustrates  the  potential  transition  quantified  data  could  usher   in:     “FACEBOOK,  Amazon,  Twitter  and  a  host  of  other  big  companies  in  today’s  “data-­‐driven   economy”  share  one  thing  in  common:  they  make  a  living  from  harvesting  personal  data.  Some   of  this  data  is  freely  given,  perhaps  too  freely.     Such  issues  have  long  troubled  Jennifer  Lyn  Morone,  an  American  living  in  London  (pictured).   So  to  regain  some  ownership  and  control  of  her  data  (and  other  assets  related  to  her   existence)  she  decided  to  become  Jennifer  Lyn  Morone™  Inc  (JLM),  registered  like  all  savvy   corporations  in  Delaware.  And  what  started  out  as  an  art  project—her  brief  as  part  of  a   master’s  degree  at  London’s  Royal  College  of  Art  was  to  “design  a  protest”—is  now   transforming  her  into  a  humanoid/corporate  hybrid.    
  • 14. JLM  is  an  intriguing  attempt  to  establish  the  value  of  an  individual  in  a  data-­‐driven  economy.   As  Ms  Morone’s  business  plan  describes  it,  JLM  “derives  value  from  three  sources,  and  legally   protects  and  bestows  rights  upon  the  total  output  of  Jennifer  Lyn  Morone.””     Millenials  and  Privacy:     While  the  broader  consumer  audience  is  ok  with  trading  privacy  for  personalization  or   privacy  for  security,  Millenials,  the  largest  consumer  group  in  the  US  and  the  fastest   growing  source  of  spending  for  brands,  begs  to  differ.           In  separate  studies  by  TIME  Magazine  and  the  ACLU,  researchers  saw  a  significant   divergence  in  the  privacy  tradeoff  among  Millenials  vs  Gen  X  and  Boomers.        “Fifty-­‐four  percent  of  respondents  said  the  leaker,  Edward  Snowden,  29,  did  a  “good   thing”  in  releasing  information  about  the  government  programs,  which  collect  phone,   email,  and  Internet  search  records  in  an  effort,  officials  say,  to  prevent  terrorist   attacks.  Just  30  percent  disagreed.     But  an  almost  identical  number  of  Americans  —    53  percent  —    still  said  he  should  be   prosecuted  for  the  leak,  compared  to  28%  who  said  he  should  not.      
  • 15. Americans  aged  18  to  34  break  from  older  generations  in  showing  far  more  support   for  Snowden’s  actions.  Just  41  percent  of  that  cohort  say  he  should  face  charges,  while   43  percent  say  he  should  not.  Just  19  percent  of  that  age  group  say  the  leak  was  a  “bad   thing.”     There  are  early  indications  that  Millenial  consumers,  those  who  are  generating  the   most  data  and  are  most  active  on  the  current  third-­‐party  data  value  platforms  such   as  Facebook,  Twitter,  Instagram  and  Klout  are  the  most  likely  to  desire  greater   control  of  their  data.  It  is  safe  to  assume  that  the  idea  of  monetizing  data  as  a  means   of  control  may  make  more  sense  than  arbitrarily  trusting  brands  to  “do  the  right   thing”  with  their  electronic  trail.     The  Pivot  to  Passive:       J  Walter  Smith,  Executive  Chairman  of  The  Futures  Company  (formerly  Yankelovich)   makes  a  case  that  by  all  rights  should  be  placed  in  the  Anitlogs  category.  Except  that   in  the  midst  of  arguing  that  most  consumers  are  becoming  more  passive  due  to  the   proliferation  of  sensor-­‐based  technology  (which  is  inherently  antithetical  to  the   Individual  IPO  idea)  he  makes  a  very  important  point.     In  a  smartly-­‐worded  opinion  piece  Smith  argues  for  a  return  to  a  time  before  the   Internet  based  on  passive  sensor  data  collection  and  the  advent  of  novel   technologies  such  as  the  self-­‐driving  Google  car.  In  Smith’s  future  only  “hyper-­‐ compulsive,  technologically  obsessed  men  –  who  are  willing  and  able  to  volunteer   their  time  to  an  open  source  project”  will  exert  any  real  control  on  what  goes  on   with  their  data.     He  supports  this  hypothesis  with  some  very  hard  to  dispute  observations:     -­‐ Better  tailoring  experiences  means  relinquishing  control  to  marketers   -­‐ Average  consumers  have  become  bored  with  most  data  generating  platforms     -­‐ The  proliferation  of  sensor  based  technologies  will  pacify  consumers       But  Smith  supports  his  theory  by  fighting  one  anachronism  with  another:     “Soon,  little  will  go  unrecorded  by  the  'internet  of  things',  a  network  far  larger  and   much  faster-­‐growing  than  the  'internet  of  people',  encompassing  not  just  data  flows   among  objects,  but  those  between  people  and  objects  or  sensors       Contrast  this  with  the  classic  advertising  world  remembered  in  AMC's  hit  show,  Mad   Men.  In  episode  after  episode,  creative  director  Don  Draper  sits  alone  in  his  office,   whiskey  in  hand,  inventing  from  whole  cloth  the  marketplace  in  which  consumers  will   live.  It's  fiction  embellished  for  dramatic  effect,  but  as  a  picture  of  the  days  of  yore,   when  marketers  were  in  control,  it  provides  a  realistic  point  of  contrast.    
  • 16. Ye  t  this  contrast  is  outdated.  What's  germane  for  tomorrow's  marketplace  was   foreshadowed  unintentionally  by  Time  when  it  placed  'You'  on  its  cover  against  a   background  image  of  a  desktop  screen.  Passive  digital  engages  consumers  very   differently  from  active  digital.  A  screen  demands  active  engagement.  Consumers  must   touch  it,  key  information  into  it,  and  be  involved  with  it  in  many  ways.  Sensors  perform   passive  monitoring.  Consumers  do  little,  often  nothing.  Sensors  detect,  report  and   trigger.     What  digital  technologies  can  do  now  to  capture  the  moment  was  impractical  and   unaffordable  in  years  past.  Soon,  though,  little  will  go  unrecorded  by  the  'internet  of   things',  a  network  far  larger  and  much  faster-­‐growing  than  the  'internet  of  people',   encompassing  not  just  data  flows  among  objects,  but  those  between  people  and  objects,   or  sensors,  too.”     Smith’s  logic,  which  is  not  uncommon  in  the  marketplace,  assumes  consumers  are   passive  participants  in  the  marketplace  when  in  reality  they  have  clearly   demonstrated  not  only  an  clear  knowledge  of  some  tangible  value  for  their  data,  but   also  a  generational  shift  in  attitudes  towards  greater  emphasis  on  protecting  that   value.  Contrary  to  Smith’s  cynical  dystopian  future,  consumer  signals  tell  us  that   they  will  likely  be  less  inclined  to  freely  hand  over  their  information  rather  than   letting  it  be  passively  collected.  Smith  as  archetype  for  a  more  cynical  view  on  the   future  of  data  collection  not  only  undercuts  the  collective  hope  for  quantified  self,  it   signals  a  reversion  in  the  face  of  greater  human-­‐machine  interface.  The   commonality  of  this  perspective  can,  in  a  way,  be  seen  as  a  confirmation  of  the   opportunity.     Smith  is  likely  correct  in  his  view  about  the  ubiquity  of  sensor  technology  in  the  not   too  distant  future.  And  this  bodes  well  for  the  Individual  IPO  concept  as  they  will  act   as  data  collection  points  throughout  the  larger  physical  network.    Consumers   already  live  with  a  bevvy  of  sensors  in  their  daily  life  such  as  video  cameras,  store   theft  detectors  and  the  like.  F                
  • 17. Shawn  Buckles  &  The  World  Economic  Forum:         In  a  2011  report  the  World  Economic  Forum  postulated  in  its  report,  “Personal   Data:  the  Emergence  of  a  New  Asset  Class”  how  ever  escalating  data  profiles  may   become  “the  new  oil”  for  individuals.     “This  personal  data  –  digital  data  created  by  and  about  people  –  is  generating  a  new   wave  of  opportunity  for  economic  and  societal  value  creation.  The  types,  quantity   and  value  of  personal  data  being  collected  are  vast:  our  profiles  and  demographic  data   from  bank  accounts  to  medical  records  to  employment  data.  Our  Web  searches  and   sites  visited,  including  our  likes  and  dislikes  and  purchase  histories.  Our  tweets,  texts,   emails,  phone  calls,  photos  and  videos  as  well  as  the  coordinates  of  our  real-­‐world   locations.  The  list  continues  to  grow.  Firms  collect  and  use  this  data  to  support   individualised  service-­‐delivery  business  models  that  can  be  monetised.  Governments   employ  personal  data  to  provide  critical  public  services  more  efficiently  and  effectively.   Researchers  accelerate  the  development  of  new  drugs  and  treatment  protocols.  End   users  benefit  from  free,  personalized  consumer  experiences  such  as  Internet  search,   social  networking  or  buying  recommendations.     And  that  is  just  the  beginning.  Increasing  the  control  that  individuals  have  over  the   manner  in  which  their  personal  data  is  collected,  managed  and  shared  will  spur  a  host   of  new  services  and  applications.  As  some  put  it,  personal  data  will  be  the  new  “oil”  –  a   valuable  resource  of  the  21st  century.  It  will  emerge  as  a  new  asset  class  touching  all   aspects  of  society.”    
  • 18. With  this  in  mind  the  British  paper  The  Guardian  reported  on  how  a  Dutch  student   decided  to  get  out  ahead  of  his  data  being  sold  in  bulk  on  the  cheap  and  instead  sold   his  “digital  soul”  for  a  greater  amount.     “Dutch  student Shawn Buckles has  tackled  the  issue  head  on  with  his  decision  to sell his data soul at  auction.  He  received  £288  from  website  The  Next  Web.  He  says  that  the   website  will  use  his  data  to  highlight  privacy  issues  at  their  next  conference.   Buckles'  data  bundle  included  all  sorts  of  private  information  -­‐  everything  from   browsing  data  to  email  conversations.     A  sum  like  £288  is  obviously  not  to  be  sniffed  at,  but  can  anyone  receive  such  a  payoff?   Buckles  told  us:     I’ve  read  that  a  persons’  data  goes  for  under  50  cents  at  the  moment,  so  I  reckon  I’ve   added  lots  of  value  to  my  data.  On  the  other  hand,  I’ve  sold  my  most  intimate   information.  I  don’t  know  if  there’s  any  fair  amount  for  that.     Buckles  is  right:  when  your  data  is  sold,  no  one  receives  that  kind  of  money  for  it.  This   is  because  brands  don’t  buy  individual  data,  they  buy  individuals’  data  in  bundles  and   that  makes  it  very  cheap.”     When  one  considers  the  massive  leap  forward  quantified  data  will  likely  make,  it   stands  to  reason  that  one  has  the  ability  to  not  only  gain  greater  control  over  his  or   her  data,  but  potentially  turn  the  tables  on  the  current  third-­‐party   aggregation/monetization  scheme.          
  • 19. Assumptions:     It  is  important  to  visit  critical  assumptions  that  lay  the  groundwork  for  this  idea.     1. The  quantified  self/wearable  technology  application  will  look,  act  and  feel   distinct  from  current  smart  devices.  This  is  as  opposed  to  Samsung’s  earlier   attempt  to  market  a  smart  watch,  which  has  little  functionality  let  alone  little   differentiating  customization.  If  the  iWatch  is  merely  a  portal  to  stream  texts,   IM,  Bluetooth  and  other  pre-­‐existing  applications,  wearable  technology  will   become  an  add  on  versus  a  commercial  platform.   2. The  form  factor  develops  to  accommodate  intense,  multi-­‐application   functionality  like  current  smart  devices.   3. Developers  see  the  same  monetization  opportunity  they  saw  in  iPhone  and   Android.       4. The  data  being  captured  can  be  monetized  at  a  level  that  entices  consumers   into  participating.     5. Interaction  with  external  sensor-­‐based  technology  such  as  iBeacon  will   become  natural  and  not  creepy  or  invasive.        
  • 20. Recommendation:     In  as  much  as  timing  is  everything,  it  would  appear  developers  and  brands  looking   to  engage  this  opportunity  will  have  at  least  a  brief  window  during  proliferation  and   adoption  to  engage  in  research  and  development.    The  time  horizon  could  possible   extend  further  out  given  the  radical  change  this  could  represent  and  the  time  it   would  take  for  most  consumers  to  adapt  to  and  engage  with  this  way  of  life.       With  this  in  mind,  it  would  be  prudent  for  brands  to  begin  auditing  its  data  exchange   compensation  model  it  currently  shares  with  consumers  and  test  alternate  models   that  more  closely  align  with  this  direction  so  they  are  prepared  to  go  to  market   when  this  shift  begins  to  take  place.       Additional  next  steps:     -­‐ Business  category  evaluation  to  identify  those  most  likely  to  benefit  from  this   direct  payment  method  in  the  near  term.     -­‐ Hypothesize  and  articulate  additional  business  model  concepts  outside  those   listed  in  this  document.       -­‐ Model  the  physical/technological  transaction  on  a  per  brand  basis  as  a  first  step   prototype.