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2020 ICT Forecast

The report includes an analysis of ICT trends for 2020, the year of 5G commercialization. There will be a change in the value chain of the ICT industry since 2020, so this report can confirm this. See more than 160 pages of reports for comprehensive information on 5G changes. (This English version report was created using Google Translator.)

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2020 ICT Forecast

  1. 1. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - ICT 2020 FORECAST [When to respond to global recession through 5G!] 2020.01.25. | DONGHYUNG SHIN "Use it comfortably, share a lot, and be sure to quote the source when you cite it." English version translated by Google Translator [DRAFT]
  2. 2. Index I. Change in External Business Environment II. Changes begins with 5G III. ICT Industry Value Chains V. Changes in Service Infra due to 5G VII. In Summary VI. Changes in devices due to 5G [Reference] Changes in components due to 5G IV. Changes in Services due to 5G
  3. 3. I. Change in External Business Environment 0. Preface (Global Recession vs. Mobile communication tech development) 1. Global Recession 2. Mobile Communication tech development 3. Big Issues on Business trends(Made-in China, AI2030, 4TH Industrial Revolution) 4. Big events in 2020(U.S. Presidential Election, Tokyo Olympic) 5. In Summary
  4. 4. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 4 0. Preface Global Recession, which occurs every 10 years, and the evolution of mobile communication technology generation are interlocking with each other. Evolution of Mobile Tech Before and after 1990 Before and after 2000 Before and after 2010 Before and after 2020 3G (IMT-2000) 2001 (Japan) 2G 1991 (Finland) 4G (IMT-Advanced) 2009 (Sweden, Norway) 5G (IMT-2020) 2019 (South Korea) Global Recession Asian Financial Crisis 1998 Financial Crisis 2008 2019 US Short- and Long-Term Interest Rate Reverse Technology generation Year of Commercialization Recession Year of occurrence
  5. 5. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 5 1. Global Recession The US government bond short- and long-term interest rate reversal took place in 2H19, raising concerns about the financial crisis. In addition, the forecast for future global economic growth is less than 3%. Recession signal ① Concerns about the coming recession ※ Source: The largest interest rate reversal in 12 years… "Recession within a year" warning (Money Today, 2019) (LINK) ※ Source : Automotive Industry Outlook(IHS MARKIT, 2019)(LINK) Global Economic Growth Rate Interest rate reversal between short-term government bonds and long-term government bonds is considered a sign of short-term economic RISK. The interest rate reversal, which appeared as a concern for the short-term recession even before the 2008 US financial crisis, is the basis. In some emerging economies, the global economic growth rate is expected to be less than 3.0%. US Treasury 10-year and 2-year interest rate differences Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank 2003.07.03 2019.08.27(U.S.A. Time) ◀ 2008 Financial Crisis 2006 ~ 2006 ▶ Government bond interest rate reversal occurs
  6. 6. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 6 2. Evolution of Mobile Communication Tech. Mobile communication technology is bringing new innovation every 10 years. IMT-2020 ② Foundation of new innovation IMT-AdvancedIMT-2000Technology generation Killer Application Example IoT, A.I., XRMobile APPMultimedia Standard technology formulation year 201620021992 Initial commercialization year 201920092001 First commercialized country and carrier Korea 3 MNOs Sweden, Norway Teliasonera Japan NTT-DOCOMO (5G)(4G)(3G)
  7. 7. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 7 3. Big Issues on Business trends ICT is not only a means of global hegemony competition, but also a solution to economic and social problems and will continue to innovate. Major Trends in the ICT Environment ① Outline Fourth Industrial Revolution China’s manufacturing and AI innovation Japanese SOCIETY 5.0 American innovation growth (Advanced Manufacturing, 5G, etc.) Global trend of autonomy and automation based on hyper connectivity Secured its position as the world's top 1 country from 2025 to 2030 based on advanced manufacturing and A.I. Addressing energy and social safety nets in an environment of reduced population US wants to keep global IT market leadership. In the midst of global innovation environment of autonomy and automation, 5G, advanced manufacturing, A.I. Competition will accelerate IT innovation, and through ICT innovation, nations and governments will move forward in smart societies, such as reducing population, reducing labor force, and solving energy and social safety net problems.
  8. 8. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 8 3.1. Fourth Industrial Revolution The 4TH Industrial Revolution means social, political, and economic changes that would bring with autonomy and automation. 4TH Industrial Revolution Definition ① Outline Cyber-Physical System Extreme Automation/Autonomy Extreme Connectivity Social, political and economic change
  9. 9. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 9 Autonomy and automation means complementing or replacing the head and arms and legs, which are the basis of human labor Compositions of Autonomy and Automation [Reference] Autonomy and Automation Thinking Action
  10. 10. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 10 Autonomy and automation will evolve to complement and gradually replace human labor. Automation evolution stage [Reference] Autonomy and Automation Complementation of labor force Substitution of labor force - Increase the amount of baggage you can carry. - Increases the amount and speed of luggage you can carry. - Some roles, some complements, sharing roles with people - Complete replacement of human role
  11. 11. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 11 Connectivity removes the constraints of time and space by eliminating the gap between the reality and the virtuality of people, things and information. Value of connectivity [Reference] Super Connectivity - the real movement of information and people and things - High time and cost to real travel. - Information moves through virtual, but still people and things actually go directly - Information travel time and costs have fallen to zero, which reduces other costs - Remotely control objects through virtually exchanged information, reducing the need for direct movement - Remotely control things to reduce time and cost of travel to zero. ※ Source : Extreme automation and connectivity : the global, regional, and investment implications of the fourth industrial revolution(2016)
  12. 12. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 12 The Fourth Industrial Revolution, in turn, meant the collapse of the labor force boundary between humans and machines through autonomy and autonomy, and the collapse of the boundary between the real and virtual worlds with hyper-connectivity. ② evolution of 4TH industrial revolution 1ST IR (Late 18C, 1790s1) ) 2ND IR (20C early, 1910s2) ) 3RD IR (Late 20C, 1990s3) ) 4TH IR (21C, end of 2010) range Real World Connections Link between real andvirtual world Physical coupling Chemical Integration Automation Subject Machine (loom machine →) massive production (Ford T →) IT Artificial Intelligence meanin g (Velocity↑) (Quantity↑,Price↓, Velocity↑) (Expand the scope of participation in industry activities) (Producer → Consumer Expansion) (Human-machine boundary collapse) Connectivity Subject Train, ship car Internet Big Data, IoT meanin g Link between specific regions, such as countries Connect to the front of your home Individual connections regardless of location Link up to individual devices Energy source Steam (coal, etc.) Petroleum (gasoline, diesel) Electric Renewable ※ Source : Extreme automation and connectivity : the global, regional, and investment implications of the fourth industrial revolution(2016) 1) Loom Machine 2) Ford T modrl mass production, 3) Appearance of WWW
  13. 13. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 13 3.2. China China has established a three-step strategy to enter the Global Manufacturing Group 1 and is approaching it step by step. Made In China 2025 ① Made in China 2025 ※ Source: 「China Manufacturing 2025」 strategy (2015.06), Industrial Economy (KIET, Kang Ji-yeon) Stage 1 (2015-2025) Stage 2 (2025-2035) Stage 3 (2035-2045) - Raising the level of Chinese manufacturing to Germany and Japan by 2025 (World's second largest manufacturing group) · Manufacturing level 1 group (US), 2 group (Germany, Japan), 3 group (UK, France, Korea, China) ① Until 2025 · Improve labor productivity · Convergence of IT and manufacturing industry · Reduction of energy consumption rate and pollution emission of major industries ② by 2020 · Significantly improve IT competitiveness in manufacturing industry - Improve the overall level of Chinese manufacturing to level 2 of manufacturing - To be the leader in the second group in China's superior industry - Enter into the global manufacturing industry tier 1 group Innovation capability Qualitative performan ce IT and manufactu ring convergen ce Eco-friendl y growth National Manufacturing Innovation Center (15 in 20, about 40 in 25)
  14. 14. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 14 China has selected the top ten growth engine industries, which in turn will continue to increase productivity through autonomy, automation increased connectivity and IT in the non-IT sector. [Reference] Top 10 growth engine industries China's Top 10 Growth Engines ※ Source: Refer to 「China Manufacturing 2025」 strategy (2015.06), Industrial Economy (KIET, Kang Delay) Next Generation Information and Communication (Semiconductor, Communication, S / W) High precision numerical control and robot Aerospace equipment Advanced track traffic equipment Marine Equipment and High Technology Ships Energy saving and new energy car Power equipment New material Agricultural machinery equipment Biomedical and High Performance Medical Devices - Based on A.I. and hyper connection - Automation of factory and daily life - Expansion of connectivity in daily life, off-line and non-IT areas, ITization, and autonomy Future Chinese Top 10 industries to be growth engines Autonomy & Automation Expand connectivity Application the non-digital domain to Digitalization implication
  15. 15. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 15 After reviewing the status of the top ten growth engines, China will reinforce software and materials competitiveness. China's Top 10 Industrial Competitiveness in 2017 [참조] 10대 성장 동력 산업 ※ Source : China Manufacturing 2025 Announces New Roadmap(2018), KOTRA(LINK) Chinese telecommunicati on equipment Orbital equipment Power equipment Integrated circuits and dedicated equipment Civil aviation equipment Advanced NC Plant Machinery robot Aerospace equipment Offshore Process Equipment & High Tech Ships New energy cars Agricultural equipment New material Strategy material Strategy new material Global leading Group Top-level technological progress A latent group Medical equipment ① Reflect the rapid development of operating system and industrial S / W - Remarkable development such as big data, internet of things, cloud computing, edge computing ② Add contents to major materials and exclusive manufacturing facilities - Strengthen the competitiveness of materials in the aerospace equipment field - Restructuring for offshore process equipment to suit both global competitive environments implication
  16. 16. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 16 China considers artificial intelligence (AI) as a driving force for the advancement of the intelligent economy and society, and is planning and making efforts to establish the world's leading nation by theory, technology, and application level by 2030. AI 2030 development stage ② AI 2030 Stage 1 (~ 2020) Stage 2 (~ 2025) Stage 3 (~ 2030) ※ Source : Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan issued by State Council(Department of International Cooperatoin Ministry of Science and Technology, P.R. China,, 2017)(LINK), The New Chinese Revolution(Felipe, 2018)(LINK) - The overall AI technology and application level have developed into a global leader - AI technology is emerging as a new engine of economic development. ※ AI creates US $ 22.5 billion market value and US $ 150 billion indirect effect - AI basic theoretical level finds a new breakthrough, AI technology and application level is set to become the global leading level - AI contributes to the development of intelligent society and the role of power source to upgrade the overall industry and enable economic reconstruction ※ AI creates US $ 60 billion market value and US $ 7.5 billion indirect effect - AI basic theory, technology, and application level all improved to the global leadership level - China will develop into an intelligent economy and society and become a center for innovation of global AI ※ AI creates US $ 1.5 billion market value and US $ 1.5 trillion indirect effect Support System for AI Development China's Four Key Agendas for AI Development Apart from ① hardware (chipset industry and supercomputer), ② database (AI algorithm core), ③ R & D investment, attracting AI experts, ④ creating a strong ecosystem for AI commercialization in China ← Competitiveness of AI between US and China ← China's market base is likely to win, but its technological competitiveness is half that of the US
  17. 17. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 17 3.3. Japan Japanese government proposed Society 5.0, called the Super Smart Society, which aims to solve social problems by building smart infrastructures such as energy and social safety nets. Background ① Society 5.0 Innovation to solve social challenges ① Digital innovation has also brought about improved convenience, but it has brought about the complexity of society and the negative aspects of the digital society. Ex) digital fatigue and addiction, new surveillance society, distrust society and infodemix ② Reduced labor productivity and reduced workforce ③ Other social issues such as energy, social safety nets, transportation, and aging urban development Super Smart Society - Digitization is only a means; it is human. - To date, technology-driven innovations have contributed to the development of society. - To maintain this in the future, It is necessary to focus on building a society that can make you happy and increase your self-esteem. SOCIETY 5.0
  18. 18. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 18 The Japanese government has set up five strategic areas that take into account social issues and strengths in Japan. Five strategic areas seen from social problem and strategic strengths [Reference] Society 5.0 Five Strategic Areas ※ Source: 'Abe's Growth Roadmap <Society 5.0> and Implications (IBK Institute for Economic Research, 2018.04) Category Social problem Strength(S) and weakness(W) ① Healthy longevity Aging, Reduced Population, and Burden (S) Robot, sensor technology, field medical data collection ② mobility innovation Aging population, island population, transportation (S) Traffic data network and driving data collection ③ Supply chain innovation Difficulties in hiring in manufacturing (S) JIT(Just In Time) Lean Manufacturing,Production robots and devices (W) Software ④ Regional Infra improvement Difficulties in hiring in Construction, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure Aging (S) Sensor technology, large-scale civil construction for Tokyo Olympics (W) 5G Infrastructure, Island ⑤ Fintech Long-term low interest rates weaken bank profitability (S) Cryptocurrency Market Development (W) Prefer cash payment, aging IT burden, OS technology Social Problem High Low Strategic strengthLow High ① Healthy longevity ② Mobility Innovation ④ Regional infra improvement ③ Supply chain innovation⑤ Fintech
  19. 19. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 19 3.4. United States of America Although the former regime, the United States plans to support nine strategic areas through the American Innovation Strategy. Policy direction ① Strategy of American Innovatino ※ Source: United States announces amendments to the US Innovation Strategy and budget plan (LINK) ① Expanding R & D investment and laying the foundation for long-term economic growth ② Support 9 strategic areas to solve national challenges and create wealth ③ Create an environment to improve the system for public R & D performance and promote private innovation Advanced manufacturi ng Precision medicine Brain Initiative A high-tech car Smart city Clean Energy Energy Efficiency education Technology space Technology Next generation computing Component 9 strategic areas Investing in the building blocks of innovation Fueling the engine of private sector innovation Empowering a nation of innovations Creating quality jobs and lasting economic growth Catalyzing breakthrough s for national priorities Delivering innovative government with and for the people Ingredientesfor innovation Strategic initiatives
  20. 20. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 20 [Reference] 9 Strategic Areas FG Advanced manufacturing Precision medicine Brain Initiative A high-tech car Smart city Clean Energy Energy Efficiency Education technology Space technology Next generation computing - Reduce costs and time for manufacturing companies, new products drive economic growth by promoting development and start-ups - Technical support to better understand the patient's condition and determine effective treatment - How brain cells work, identify neural circuit interactions - Promotion of technology to understand the human brain - 90% reduction in traffic accidents by developing driverless cars - Improve the quality of life by collecting and utilizing city information such as traffic and crime - Reducing carbon emissions and strengthening energy security through the development of renewable energy, clean energy and high efficiency - Cultivate quality and performance of education by developing innovative education methods using broadband and cloud - Significantly reduce the cost of space flight through cooperation with the private sector, promoting the growth of the civil aviation industry - Development of super computer (HPC) to improve public service quality, economic growth, health and stability - MNMI, a public-private cooperation organization for the development of innovative manufacturing technology - Enlarged to 15 (currently 9) - Research on new medicine and medical data sharing technology of NIH, NCI, FDA, etc. by investing $ 215 million in 2016 - Invested $ 300 million in 2016 to support research by NIH, NSF, DARPA, etc. - Increased investment in research on operation and safety standards, improved regulations for technology application, etc. - According to the smart city plan, safety, energy, transportation, etc. - 20th city participation technology utilization research - In 2016, invested $ 7.6 billion in clean energy and sustainable transportation technology - Connecting 99% students with high speed internet by '18 - Promotion of ConnetED Project, Establishment of Higher Education Research Bureau - $ 6 billion investment plan by 2017, $ 1.2 billion investment in 2016 - Develop HPC in accordance with the National Strategic Computing Plan (`15). - Nationally supported Autonomy & Automation Expand connectivity Application the non-digital domain to Digitalization Field Vision Policy direction Direction
  21. 21. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 21 The U.S. government recognizes the importance and contribution of the manufacturing industry and seeks to recapture manufacturing leadership from the agenda of advanced manufacturing. background ② Advanced manufacturing ※ 출처 : STRATEGY FOR AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED MANUFACTURING(WHITE HOUSE, 2018.10)(LINK) VISION GOALS - To secure and maintain US leadership in high-tech manufacturing as well as industrial sectors to ensure national safety and economic prosperity ① Develop and spread new manufacturing technology ② Education, training and connection of manufacturing labor force ③ Expand the capacity of the manufacturing supply chain in the US Manufacturi ng importance - Manufacturing is an engine for US economic and national security · Manufacturing varies from aviation industry to biopharmaceutical industry Manufactu ring contribute - Manufacturing jobs mean jobs entering the middle class · 350,000 new manufacturing jobs created after the Trump administration - Manufacturing is a key industry that drives investment in other industries American Weakened location - US manufacturing continues to decline in the 21st century · 20th century US manufacturing is a global economic driver · The share of manufacturing in the US labor force was 8.5%, lower than the 2008 level. - Most recent investments focused on S/W-oriented startups Progress
  22. 22. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 22 [Reference] 3 GOAL ※ 출처 : STRATEGY FOR AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED MANUFACTURING(WHITE HOUSE, 2018.10)LINK) Development and dissemination of new manufacturing technology - Seize the future of intelligent manufacturing systems Manufacturing labor Education, training and connection Expanding manufacturing supply chain capacity in the US - Develop world class raw materials and processing technology - Access to medical products through manufacturing in the US - Maintain leadership in semiconductor design and production - Strengthen the opportunity for food agriculture manufacturing - Recruit and grow future manufacturing workforce - Expand and update career and technical training channels - Expand apprenticeship and access to accredited certification - Match with industry of technical labor force - Expanding the role of small and medium manufacturers in advanced manufacturing - Expand the ecosystem of manufacturing innovation - Strengthen defense manufacturing base - Strengthening cutting-edge manufacturing for the suburban community ① Smart & Digital Manufacturing ② Advanced Industrial Robotics, ③ Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence, ④ Cyber Security in Manufacturing ① (low cost) high performance raw materials, ② lamination processing (3D printing) ③ securing essential raw materials ① low cost manufacturing, ② continuous production (vs. batch production), ③ tissue and organ bioprocessing technology ① semiconductor design tools and production, ② new raw materials, devices and structures ① processing, testing and tracking systems for food safety, ② production and supply chains to ensure food safety, ③ cost and function enhancements for bio-based products ① Basic STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) education specialized in manufacturing ② Manufacturing engineering education, ③ Partnership between industry and academia ① career and technical education, ② skilled technical labor training ① Manufacturing apprenticeship system, ② Apprenticeship and certification program ① diversity of labor force, ② capacity maintenance ① Supply chain growth, ② Increased awareness of cyber security, ③ Public-private partners ① Manufacturing innovation ecosystem, ② New business formation and growth, ③ R & D dissemination ① Disruptive DUAL-USE (Defense and Commercial) Capability, ② BUY AMERICA, ③ Utilize Existing Support System ① Advanced manufacturing for suburban prosperity, ② Capital, investment and business support
  23. 23. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 23 4. Big events in 2020 The 2020 is the year of the Tokyo Olympics and the US presidential election. 2020 TOKYO OLYMPIC 2020 US presidential election 07.24 ~ 08.09 11.03 ※ 출처 : Urban planning and the democratic debate field(Planetizen, 2019)(LINK)
  24. 24. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 24 5. In Summary The 2020 is an important time to prepare for new innovation. The economic uncertainty is so high that short-term stability and long-term perspectives are the beginnings of new change, and therefore have a complex meaning of capturing both. Mid to long term Short term (2020) Advent of the global recession + 5G infrastructure proliferation and innovation environment + Super Connectivity & Super Autonomy & Automation + Global hegemony competition between the US and China + Solving Social Problems of States and Governments Japan Tokyo Olympics + US presidential election + ... The 2020 is a complex time to overcome short-term uncertainty and start new changes in the long run.
  25. 25. II. Changes begin with 5G 1. The definition of 5G and its Implications 2. 5G tech features 3. New industrial changes throughout 5G 4. Global 5G Proliferation 5. Progress of 5G by Country 6. Approach toward 5G as innovation
  26. 26. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 26 1. The definition of 5G and its implication 5G is a mobile communication technology standard that can simultaneously implement high-speed communication environment and IoT communication environment that guarantees low power and stability. Technical features ① Overview ※ Source : Unleashing the Potential of 5G(LINK) Broadband (eMBB) Massive IoT (mMTC) Mission-Critical IoT (URLLC) High Speed & High Capacity High Density High Energy Efficiency Low Latency High Reliability 20 Gbps ① Environment for using large capacity and high speed data with no difference between wired and wireless - Peak 20 GBps, Whenever 100 MBps - Users can experience 8K or XR content even in mobile environment. ② 5G provides IoT or environment for the general public - Super high speed evolved from 4G in terms of high speed and high capacity - Super connection, ultra low power, ultra stability and ultra low delay - Enable connectivity beyond smartphones-5G will lay the foundation for the IoT era ③ In summary, 5G is an OMNI CONNECTIVITY technology that provides three technical characteristics of eMBB, mMTC and URLLC in one technology and network. implication
  27. 27. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 27 5G makes IoT services possible with cellular networks, which was only possible with dedicated networks in the 4G era. In addition, the ultra-high speed and high capacity of 5G is expected to encroch the Wi-Fi area. 4G era connection environment ② 4G vs. 5G difference 10m 100m 1km 10km bps kbps Mbps PAN LPWAN SigFox, LoRa Weightless Wi-Fi Cellular UMTS, HSPA LTE, LTE-A 10m 100m 1km 10km bps kbps Mbps PAN Zigbee, Bluetooth Wi-Fi Cellular 5G Cellular network is encroching Wi-Fi zone Zigbee, Bluetooth Connection environment in the 5G era
  28. 28. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 28 Just as smartphones have absorbed a variety of personal multimedia devices, 5G will also absorb a variety of connectivity. 5G is expected to bring innovations such as the changes that smartphones have made to the world. Like absorbed into a smartphone ③ Absorb with one net and technology MP3 player Digital Camera PMP telephone computer game console navigation smartphone LPWAN Cellular Wi-Fi Public network 5G 5G absorbs a variety of connectivity
  29. 29. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 29 2. 5G Tech features In the 5G environment, one network and technology can cover the use of broadband environment, multi-device IoT environment, and purpose-optimized IoT environment. ① OMNI CONNECTIVITY ※ Source : 5G Core Technology-E2E Network Slicing: What, Why and How?(NetMania)(LINK) Virtualization with one network 4G network: Phone, communication service (voice, text, Internet), correspondence industry 5G network requirements: accommodate all terminals, all services, all industries Transition 4G to 5G each dedicated 5g networks?
  30. 30. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 30 Network slicing is a network technology that separates one physical core network infrastructure into multiple independent virtual networks according to service types, and provides various customized services through each slice. Network Slicing ② Network slicing ※ Source : Understanding 5G International Standards(LINK) Telecom / Internet Logistics / Agriculture / Climate Car / Factory / Medical Communication and Internet Network Slice Logistics, Agriculture, Climate Network Slice Car, factory, medical network slice eMBB mMTC URLLC
  31. 31. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 31 If perfect 5G services become full scale, SA must be universalized. NSA ③ NSA vs. SA 4G Core LTE NO 4G Core LTE 5G Core NO Control Plane Data Plane TO
  32. 32. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 32 In order to implement ultra-low latency service, not only 5G network but also cloud service is important for infrastructure configuration. However, current centralized cloud services have limited implementation. Edge Computing Background = Cloud Computing Technology Limitations ④ Edge-computing ※ Source : Beyond Cloud Computing… Edge Computing Concepts and Cases(LINK ) Effect Industry Description Safety Autonomous Vehicle - Instant network delays or data transmission errors can lead to fatal accidents. Air engines, drones Immediat eness Offshore Oil Drilling Facility - The industrial machine itself is located far away from the central server, making it difficult to connect with the central server.Water injection pump located in the desert XR - Human audiovisual response is so sensitive that even a few hundred ms differences can affect VR immersion. Biometric (voice, face) recognition Efficiency Smart factory - Smart factories in manufacturing companies generate large amounts of sensor data and require efficient processing. Explosive growth in data traffic can push the limits of centralized cloud services
  33. 33. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 33 Edge computing places data near devices and devices at the end of the network rather than sending it to a centralized cloud for ultra-low latency services. Edge computing concept ④ Edge-computing ※ Source : Beyond Cloud Computing… Edge Computing Concepts and Cases(LINK ) property Cloud computing Edge computing Delay time Kim short Service area Internet Local network nearby Regional identification impossible possible Hackability height lowness Communication method Centralized Distributed Number of servers Less plenty Mobility support Limited Wide range Whereas cloud computing is a way of controlling the user's device primarily in a central data center, edge computing is a technology where computing is done directly on the user's device. - Edge computing involves placing processors and data near devices and devices at the network end rather than sending them to a central data center computing platform (cloud). - It is evaluated as a computing technology that provides immediateness and stability rather than using the cloud because data is analyzed and applied on site at the edge where data is collected. - Provides technology that can cope with situation without delay, so it is effective in environment requiring fast response speed - For autonomous vehicles, aviation engines, and drones that actually require stability, short latency of edge computing is an important requirement because momentary network delays or data transmission errors can lead to fatal accidents. implication
  34. 34. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 34 5G uses millimeter-wave that enables large amounts of data quickly and provide low latency services. Millimeter wave and Sub 6 GHz ⑤ mm Wave & Sub 6 GHz ※ Source : 5G 밀리미터파에 대해 알아야 할 (거의) 모든 것(Qualcomm Korea, 2018)(LINK) mm Wave Sub 6 GHz - Wide coverage and capacity for a variety of 5G use cases · Faster and more volatile data rates to support more users indoors and out. - Millimeter wave can transmit broadband · Waves are not transmitted far away · There is a problem that is easily blocked. ※ The signal may be disturbed even if you place your hand on the part of the smartphone where the antenna is located. - Sub 6 GHz band is the spectrum for wide 5G coverage. - If millimeter waves are suitable for high density urban areas and congested indoor environments
  35. 35. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 35 3. New industrial changes throughout 5G 5G is characterized by eMBB, mMTC, and URLLC. and 5G will enable "Ultra Realistic Contents Contexts" through XR, and “Autonomy and automation environment” through Data and A.I. Examples and implications with 5G ① Overview eMBB (Broadband) mMTC (Massive IoT) URLLC (Mission- Critical IoT) 5G tech spec Peak data download speed: 20 Gbps Data traffic latency : < 10ms Device density : 1 million / km2 ② Data Driven Innovation ↓ A.I. , Automation 8K, XR Sensor network (Metering, agriculture, building, etc) Remote surgery, Smart Factory, etc Business case ① Ultra Realistic Contents Contexts Implication ☞ OMNI Connectivity
  36. 36. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 36 3.1. Ultra realistic content environment The combination of 360-degree contents from 5G eMBB, immersive contents from mMTC, and interactive contents from URLLC are expected to provide 5G’s ultra-realistic content contexts. ① Overview eMBB mMTC URLLC 360 degree content Download 1 2.5GB UHD movie in 1 second (1byte = 8bits) Immersive Contents through Wearable Device Interactive content that feels like you're in the field, even when you're away Content usage environment Ultra-realistic content
  37. 37. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 37 Content applied to XR, a concept encompassing AR, VR, and MR, is enabling the realization and consumption of content through high quality video, sound, and intuitive UI. Characteristics of XR Applied Content ② XR Content Orientation Tracking 360˚ Contents Position Tracking Low Latency Spatial Sound ※ Source : Boundless photorealistic mobile XR over 5G(LINK)
  38. 38. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 38 If mMTC and URLLC-based IoT are combined with eMBB-based XR, it is possible to realize ultra-realistic content that satisfies the five senses. XR with IoT ③ Grafting of IoT ← Air conditioning, humidifiers, dehumidifiers, scent generators, etc., can be linked to the content to feel the temperature, humidity, and high aroma in realistic content. ← Chairs or clothes can be used to feel the sensation of the realistic content.
  39. 39. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 39 Highly realistic content consumption can be consumed on a large colorful display or XR. Therefore, the use of surreal content with XR can threaten the large display market. ④ Threatened display industry Vs. Large display AR/VR/MR(LINK)
  40. 40. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 40 Solutions are emerging to provide an XR shopping experience. As a realistic type, various shopping experiences are possible beyond simple purchasing experience, which can eliminate the necessity of shopping mall construction. ESKO XR SHOPPING SOLUTION ④ Threatened construction industry Create the store in Virtual retail store Environment (LINK) Experience the store in Virtual Reality (LINK) Dynamic Lighting (LINK)
  41. 41. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 41 3.2. Data Driven Innovation 5G will exponentially increase the generation and utilization of data, including the IoT, enabling connectivity and autonomy. Autonomy roadmap ① Development stage Monitoring & Sensing Monitoring & Sensing Monitoring & Sensing Monitoring & Sensing Control & Actuation Control & Actuation Control & Actuation Optimization Optimization Autonomy Connectivity (5G) 5G Connectivity’s Complementary Assets - Comprehensive monitoring via internal sensors and external sources - Provides alerts and notifications of changes based on monitoring - Control product / service functions based on monitoring results - Controlled action - Remote monitoring, control and operation in connected environment - Pre-set algorithms to optimize product / service operation for the results of monitoring, control and operation - Act on algorithm results Autonomous product operation Self-monitoring, controlling and operating in context, self-tuning and automation ※ Source : “How Smart, Connected Products Are Transforming Competition”, (HBR, 2014)
  42. 42. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 42 A.I. robot and 5G will be the foundation for the 4TH industrial revolution, enabling independent autonomy of devices, homes, buildings, and cities. [Reference] Value Chain Artificial Intelligence Robots (Sensor & Actuator) ConnectivityAutonomy ↑ Automation 5G Cyber-Physical System Extreme Automation/Autonomy Extreme Connectivity Social, political and economic change 4TH Industrial Revolution
  43. 43. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 43 5G is expected to expand the autonomously industrial environment based on unmanned technology by combining IoT and Data & A.I. In various industries. ② Example Autonomous Vehicle Smart City Smart Factory & Valuechain
  44. 44. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 44 4. Global 5G Proliferation Korea launched the world's first mobile 5G commercialization in 2019. And U.S. and China commercialzed 5G as well. 5G Progress in Leading Countries ① Outline ※ Source : 5G Observatory Quarterly Report 4(Up to June 2019)(LINK)
  45. 45. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 45 Korea launched the world's first 5G commercialization on April 3, 2019. the penetration of 5G is expected to 9% of all Korean users in the eight months to end of 2019 Korean 5G subscriber's growth trends [Reference] Korea's Mobile 5G Commercialization Status Subscribers’ shares 9% ※ Source: Again 2012, Big Cycle (Hanhwa Securities) in 8 years (LINK)
  46. 46. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 46 North America, China and the UK are preparing mmW above 30GHz. In addition, the US, EU, China, and Japan are preparing to maximize the effects of the 5G industry by preparing for sub 6GHz bands. [Reference] Global Frequency Band Frequency Band Preparation by Country Millimeter Band Readiness by Country ※ Source : Leading the World to 5G(Qualcomm, 2019)(LINK)
  47. 47. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 47 5. Progress of 5G by Country According to the CTIA data for 19.4 years, Korea fell to the third place by being pushed by the US. The United States and China jointly ranked first. ① Tier 1 Group 5G Readiness by Country (Version 2019.04) ※ Source : Global Race To 5G - UPDATE(LINK)
  48. 48. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 48 China has been contemplating the development of science and industry technology at the national level using 5G since 2013, and plans to commercialize 5G in large cities in 2020. 5G development policy ② CHINA ※ Source : China is on the right track to become the winner of 5G(EY, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source : China 5G Development and Policy(MIIT, 2019)(LINK) In June 2019, MIIT issued a 5G commercial license to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Broadcasting. year Initiative Contents Made in China 2025 13th Five-Year Plan (`16-` 20) 863 Plan (National High Technology Research and Development Plan) National Science and Technology Major Project China leads the overall innovation in 5G mobile communication technology, and leverages it to bring about manufacturing innovation. China plans to promote the successful launch and commercialization of 5G by 2020 - Major national projects to develop and internalize 5G core technologies - Verify and develop 5G operation plan - China leads the 5G global standard Roadmap for 5G Launch
  49. 49. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 49 In order to keep up with China, the US is actively supporting the government to activate 5G, including frequency and merger conditions. FCC Movement (5G FAST PLAN) ③ U.S. Mobile Operator Trends ※ Source: The FCC's 5G FAST Plan (FCC, 2018) (LINK), US FCC's 5G Implementation Strategy (K-ICT Spectrum, 2018) LINK) Market Supply Frequency Expansion Infrastructu re Policy Reorganiza tion Old-fashion ed regulatory modernizati on - Auction of high band and mmW frequency is the highest priority among all frequency supply (28, 24 GHz, 37 GHz, 39 GHz, 47 GHz auction in progress, and 26 GHz, 42 GHz supply in progress) - Supplying 2.5GHz, 3.5GHz, 3.7-4.2GHz in the mid band, 600MHz, 800MHz, 900MHz and unlicensed (6GHz, 95GHz) in the low band - Deregulation to increase private sector investment in 5G networks and quickly build networks · To limit small cell expansion, state and local governments set an upper cost limit for operators and shorten response time for approval. - Modernization of outdated regulations to promote digital opportunities and 5G backhaul for local citizens · One-Touch Make-Ready for attaching network equipment to telegraph poles, supply chain integrity for national security, Internet recovery, etc. VERIZON - By 2020, 5G will achieve at least 50% coverage in the United States. · 5G service is being provided to 11 cities as of September 19, but its goal is to launch in 30 cities by the end of the year. AT&T -The goal is to deploy sub 6GHz and mmWave-based 5G services to the national network by the first half of 2020. -Signed a federal contract worth US $ 6.5 billion for a business utilizing the 700MHz FirstNet Public Network. ※ FirstNet is to provide wireless data priority to first aid subjects in an emergency. T-MOBILE -The FCC details 5G investments on the terms of the merger between T-Mobile and Sprint. · Within three years of the end of the merger or acquisition process; 97% must be included in 5G coverage. At least US local population should be included in 5G coverage using mid-band frequencies, with at least 90% of the US population at least 100 Mbps, and at least 99% at least 50 Mbps
  50. 50. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 50 Korean government selects and focuses on strategic industries and core services to succeed in the world's first mobile 5G commercialization. 5G + Strategy ④ Korea ※ Source: 5G (Policy Wiki, 2019) (LINK) Secure initial market and improve the quality of life of public by leading public investment Test bed creation and industry enhancement through private investment expansion 5G service activation and user protection support through system maintenance Fostering innovative companies and talents at a global level by creating an industrial foundation Globalization of Korea's 5G technology and services by supporting overseas expansion ① Promoting 5 core service demonstrations, ② Supporting leading public demand creation, ③ Improving the quality of life by introducing 5G public services, ④ Creating 5G smart city ① Support tax and investment, ② Support early commercialization by constructing 5G test and demonstration infrastructure, ③ Promote 5G technology commercialization of SMEs, ④ Support 5G contents market activation, ⑤ Support productivity innovation of main industry ① Improvement of communication plan and system ② Expansion of radio resources and improvement of regulation, ③ Construction of the safest user environment, ④ Innovation of 5G convergence service regulation, ⑤ Bridge of digital divide and user protection ① Secure global leading technology, ② Strengthen the competitiveness of the information security industry, ③ Build 5G + Hallyu foundation, ④ Promote 5G start-up and foster talent ① Support globalization of 5G services, ② Lead global 5G standardization, ③ Support overseas expansion in connection with international cooperation
  51. 51. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 51 [Reference] ※ Source: Head of telecommunication company, 3 colors with 5G strategy (LINK) Ranked 1st in the year with 1 million 5G subscribers CLOUD & 5G as a Platform XR Contents oriented 5G Strategy Park Jung-ho, president of SK Telecom, stressed that he will secure 1 million subscribers by the end of the year, following stabilization of 5G quality. Park said, "5G base station is higher than LTE, and quality stabilization is higher than 4G, so quality will stabilize by the end of this month." The number of domestic subscribers of 5G service, the world's first commercialized on April 3, exceeded 1 million in total of three mobile communication companies as of October 10, 69 days later. Although the exact number of subscribers is not disclosed among individual carriers, the industry accounts for about 40% of SK Telecom, 30% of KT, and 30% of LG U +. Park, in particular, said at the meeting that the company is the industry's number one operator, "We are particularly concerned about expanding 5G coverage." Chang-Gyu Hwang, the chairman of KT, proposed the keyword '5G as a Platform'. Hwang said, “5G should be used as a platform and not as a network.” The cloud market in the 5G environment should be preempted by Korean companies. In fact, KT is investing 500 billion won to strengthen the competitiveness of the cloud market. By 2023, the company plans to preoccupy the 5G cloud market by fostering new investments of 500 billion won in the cloud business and 1000 experts. In particular, it plans to expand the domestic cloud market to 7 trillion won in 2023 by providing customized services to the public and financial sectors to create a huge cloud ecosystem. Hwang added, "85% of the 5G standards are owned by Korea. We need to take the lead through the standard." Ha Hyun-hoe, vice-chairman of LG U +, suggested that 5G content needs much support in terms of 5G expansion. Mr. Ha said, “The competitiveness of contents such as virtual reality (AR) and augmented reality (VR) is important.” “5G content is hard to be done by just one operator. It will help SMEs to produce 5G content. We need support, including open studios and equipment, to make it happen. ” He especially emphasized that "our country has great potential due to the Korean Wave and needs 5G content production support." Mr. Ha's comments are in line with LG U + 's 5G business strategy, which is investing in the 5G content market. LG Uplus plans to produce 19,000 5G contents within this year and invest 10 billion won in AR studio. `19.08 SKT achieved 1 million subscribers originally aimed at end of year, widening gap with second and third players
  52. 52. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 52 To increase the spread in the late 5G commercialized environment, Japanese government permits private landlords or landowners to build 5G networks privately. Tracking progress ⑤ Japan Deploy LOCAL 5G strategy for 5G proliferation ※ Source : Strategy and Activities on 5G Development in Japan and 5GMF(2018)(LINK) ☞ In April 2019, MIC defines 5GHz frequency bands as 3.7GHz, 4.7GHz and 28GHz. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 R&D Projects 5G test Rugby World Cup Commercialization (Tokyo Olympics) ※ Source: Japanese government (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) 's 5G strategy: 5G self-frequency allocation work that companies can use as Wi-Fi (NETMANIAS, 2019) (LINK) Licensed frequency for MNOs MNOs(NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, Softbank) [5G Frequency allocation conditions] MNOs should cover 50% of the nation’s area with 5G within 5 years! Local 5G N/W(Builders or landlords can build their own network!), because it takes long time for MNO to build a national network Landlords and landowners scattered throughout the country
  53. 53. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 53 6. Approach toward 5G as innovation Expensive sports cars can also be valuable when fully equipped with well-lit highways and gas stations. ① Overview Basic approach to Systemic Innovation Source : “Innovation 3.0” written by Dong Hyung Shin and J. Song(LINK)
  54. 54. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 54 If IoT is a sports car that connects various things, Data and A.I. The oil, gas stations and 5G networks that power sports cars will be the highways that make all this possible. 5G is as a highway for the supercar ② 5G의 역할 - Supercar is a service experienced by users. Examples would be IoT and A.I. grafting services. - Gas stations and oil are data and storage that make IoT work - The highway is a 5G network that is the foundation for sports cars, gas stations, and oil to deliver value.
  55. 55. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 55 Once disruptive innovation, which completely transforms the existing world, is stabilized, incremental changes appears with infrastructure building and gradual change. And when incremental changes faces limits of changes, new disruptive innovation is coming. ③ Innovation cycle Industrial Innovation Cycle Model Source : “Technological Discontinuities and Dominant Design” by Anderson and Tushman(1990), “이노베이션 3.0” 신동형, 송재용 공저, p38 ~ p45 Era of Ferment Era of Incremental Change Disruptive Innovation Standard de Facto -Competition between alternative innovations -ecosystem creation between each innovation -Evolution of Standardized Innovation -Leverage already created ecosystem Era of incremental changes Era of Ferment Era of incremental changes Era of chaos Era of incremental changes Era of chaos Disruptive Innovation
  56. 56. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 56 In the generation of mobile communication technology, the odd generation was the emergence of new disruptive innovation, and the even generation was the role to improve and spread it. 5G is a time when new innovative services based on IoT and A.I. are conceived. ④ The role of 5G in inovation perspective Mobile Generation Generation Evolution Roadmap 1G 2G 3G 4G 5G Disruptive Innovation Improvement and expansion of innovation - Emergence of mobile phone - Wide spread of mobile phone - Emergence of smartphone - Wide spread of smartphone - Emergence of IoT, A.I. Disruptive Innovation Improvement and expansion of innovation Disruptive Innovation
  57. 57. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 57 The evolution of the mobile telecommunications era seems to be related to the central change in connectivity for each generation. 3G(IMT-2000) [Reference] 4G(IMT-Advanced) 5G(IMT-2020) The era of Multimedia The era of smartphone The era of IoTs PC-centric Internet connection Smartphone-centric Internet connection Feature phone's multimedia function connects to PC Things like wearables works in conjunction with smartphone Connect with PC centered around PC peripherals Things work directly with the Internet PC Phone Things People-internet connection People-thing-internet connection
  58. 58. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 58 6G is still under discussion and will be further improved in the future from eMBB, mMTC, and URLLC perspectives. ⑥ Additional Information - NS = Not Specified - Jitter : Period at which signal frequency shifts from ideal position - pJ/bit = Indicators to Measure Energy Efficiency - Cell Operation Efficiency - High Speed - Lower Latency - Higher Reliability - Energy Efficiency - High Precision 5G vs. 6G(IMT-2030) IMT-2030 Roadmap Source : 6G : The Next Frontier(2019)(LINK)
  59. 59. III. ICT Industry Value Chains
  60. 60. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 60 1. ICT Market Environment Outlook The 5G will change whole ICT industrial value chain such as contents & services, infra, devices. 2020 ① Overview Future Network Contents & Services C&S Infra Devices 5G commercialization (China) and spread 5G diffusion and advancement GAME Industry(Cloud Gaming & e-SPORTS) XR(eXtended Reality) OTT(Over The Top) IoT(Internet of Things) Autonomous Vehicle ... Smartphone OS Enhancement Intensifying Competition in the CLOUD Market Robot OS Edge Cloud spread Smartphone 5G penetration rate spread Grafting and optimizing XR, OTT services Spread various things services N C P D C P N D C-P-N-D
  61. 61. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 62 In the next 4-6 chapters, we will look at how 5G will affect C & S, Infra, and devices. 2020 Industry Key Issues ② Contents to be developed Main Content Network Contents & Services C&S Infra Devices - “5G is the AXIs” (5G is the central axis of world change!) - Over The Top - Game - Autonomous Vehicle (or Automobile) - eXtended Reality - Internet of Things - 5G smartphone OS version upgrade - (Public) cloud infrastructure advances - Smartphone OS: AI service enhancement, large screen service - Cloud: 5G, IoT, the most important infrastructure → Infrastructure center: From device to cloud - 5G smartphones expand market opportunities for + Things - Global smartphone makers' 5G survival strategy - Smartphone + Peripheral Device Market Growth: XR, Smart Watch, Speaker N C P D C P N D C-P-N-D - Global 5G spread - 5G + new industry spread - Highly realistic content environment - Data driven change - 5G leadership competition by country in earnest
  62. 62. IV. Changes in Services due to 5G 0. Preface 1. OTT 2. Game 3. Autonomous Vehicle 4. XR(eXtended Reality) 5. Internet of Things(Data, IoTs, A.I.)
  63. 63. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 64 0. Preface 5G will affect OTT, GAME, AV, XR, and IoT in the Contents & Service area 5G spread 5G eMBB mMTC URLLC Contents & Service 영역의 Hot Item 5 (O) G X Is OTT GAME AV XR IoTs Over The Top CLOUD GAMING eSPORTS Autonomous Vehicle eXtended Reality Internet of Things A
  64. 64. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 65 1. OTT The global OTT market is expected to reach $ 52.4 billion in 2020, and subscription-type OTT market will grow more than the transaction-type. Global OTT Market Trend (b $) ① Market Overview ※ Source : Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2019–2023(PWC, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source: Battlefield of platform and contents (SK Securities, 2019) (LINK) Global Subscriber Status by S-VoD Platform (`19.1Q) CAGR 12.1%
  65. 65. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 66 NETFLIX and DISNEY attract the most attention in the global OTT market. Spotlight Global OTT ② Competition Status ※ Source: Ace Story IR (Ace Story, 2019) (LINK)) - OTT service alliance combining POOQ, SKB's OKSUSU - 300 billion original content investment plan - Global expansion plan - Open Apple TV Channel, Apple TV +, a video streaming service - Provides premium channels such as HBO, Showtime, Sports, and Add-ons - invest 2 billions USD initially in original-content - Produce and localize exclusive original content for each country - Global OTT secured content based on the most investments - Use Disney, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel and National Geographic content - The number of service subscribers will increase from 6 to 90 million by 2012 - Invested KRW 80 trillion in acquisition of 21 Century Fox and became the largest shareholder in Hulu
  66. 66. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 66 NETFLIX has expanded more globally than US with virtuous cycles of subscribers, money and contents. US & International Subscriber Trends ① NETFLIX ※ Source : The opening of the streaming era (Samsung Securities)(LINK) ※ Source : Changes in global OTT market competition and business strategy due to Disney +, Apple TV +, and entry (KISDI, 2019)(LINK) NETFLIX Status Content Enhancement Enough Investment Subscriber Inflow Expanding global market Original content Interactive video (Bandersnatch)
  67. 67. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 67 Disney Plus, expected to launch in November 19, is expected to become a strong competitor to Netflix from 20 years based on Disney's strong IP and content. Extension OTT market with strong IP and content ② Disney ※ Source : TheWaltDisney IR(2019)(LINK)※ Source : 플랫폼과 컨텐츠의 전장(SK증권, 2019)(LINK) Walt Disney Pictures, Disneynature, Disney Animation Studios, Pixar, Marvel Studios, Lucasefilm, 20th Century Fox, Fox 2000 Pictures, Fox Searchlight Pictures, 20th Century Fox Animation, Blue Sky Studios Distribution, Disney Music Group, Disney Theatrical Group Walt Disney Television, ABC Entertainment, Disney TV Studios, ABC Studios, 20th Century Fox Television, Fox 21 Television Studios, Fox Television Animation, ABC TV Stations, Disney Channels Worldwide, Disney Television Animation, FX Networks, FX Productions, National Geographic Partners Studio Media Network Strong IP & Contents OTT Platform (Cross-selling) + transmission stop
  68. 68. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 68 DISNEY is attracting attention as the most threatening new entrant in the OTT market with all three bits, including streaming technology, OTT services and content. DISNEY expands its business to OTT [Reference] ※ Source : 마블에서 OTT까지 디즈니 제국의 확장은 어디까지?(KPMG, 2019)(LINK) Streaming Tech IP, Contents Power Toward New Ruler of OTT market Most threatening new entrants in the OTT market
  69. 69. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 70 APPLE launches APPLE TV Channels, which allow you to watch various paid channels on APPLE TV APP and APPLE TV +, which provides APPLE’s original content. There is a high concern that APPLE TV + will not be able to supply content well. Apple TV Channels ③ APPLE ※ Source: Announcing a colorful and boring Apple roadmap (Samsung Securities, 2019) (LINK) Apple TV+ - A service on the Apple TV app that allows you to subscribe and watch affiliate paid channels within the Apple TV app. · For example, subscribe to one of Apple's affiliated HBO paid channels within the Apple TV app and watch them without installing the HBO app. · Pay for each channel by subscribing rather than integrated subscription service. - Apple's subscription video streaming service. - Starting in November 19, $ 4.99 per month, including family sharing, $ 4.99 per family per month. - Until now, it is known to provide only its own content without supplying external contents. - Amazing Sprite by Steven Spielberg, Morning Show with Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston, Steve Carrell ☞ There is still a high level of concern over content supply and demand.
  70. 70. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 71 To cope with global OTT operators' entry into the market, POOQ, the three terrestrial contents alliance, and OKSUSU, the OTT service of mobile communication market No. 1, merged to form WAVVE. wavve establishment background ④ Wavve ※ Source: Approved merger of 'Pook-corn' ... imminent launch of integrated OTT platform 'wave' (IITP, 2019) (LINK) waave synergy ※ Source: Korea's largest OTT 'WAVVE', ready to shake (Shinyoung Securities, 2019) (LINK) Competition of Korean OTT market will be more fiercely, because 5G will boost OTT market and NETFLIX is gaining more market share. As well as DISNEY+ can enter Korean OTT market. POOQ - 3 terrestrial companies' content production capabilities and know-how - Huge K-Content IP and Global Distribution Rights - Korea's largest paid subscriber OKSUSU - Powerful sports broadcast, huge movie / overseas series - Rapid market penetration through 30 million SKT subscribers - SKT plan bundling and terminal preload Compete in the Korean market with global OTT competitors in terms of content, funds and subscribers - Produce high quality contents by attracting 3 terrestrial companies' content production capacity and investment - Supplying domestic and overseas contents at low cost using SKT's content supply and demand power - Bundling promotion / promotion and mobile communication plans through SKT branches / agents nationwide - Eliminate users' data charges by providing 5G zero rating
  71. 71. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 71 WAVVE plans to invest 300 billion won for producing original content by 2023, and expand the global market by taking advantage of K-DRAMA. waave global expansion strategy ④ WAVVE ※ Source : Wavve, Raise an anchor(Samsung Security, 2019)(LINK) Invest 300 billion won for producing original contents by 2023 waave original content investment plan Stage 1 [Service for Overseas Koreans] (October, 2019.) Stage 2 [Service for citizens] (First half of 2020) Stage 3 [Direct advance] (Expected between 21 and 22 years) - Wave can be used depending on communication environment when traveling abroad - Payment: Domestic payment methods such as credit card - Identify content needs and data by country of citizenship - Payment: Consider payment methods such as Google Play and iTunes - Direct entry - Consider how to cooperate with local carriers, OTT, drama producers and broadcasters
  72. 72. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 73 2. GAME 5G's features, such as massive data traffic capacity and ultra low latency, will contribute to boost cloud gaming and e-SPORTS proliferation Cloud Gaming ① Overview ※ Source: [5G, I want to know] What can be done with 5G? _Learn how to use eSPORTS Expansion CLOUD GAMING WITH 5G
  73. 73. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 74 5G is an enabler that accelerates cloud gaming and eSPORTS in game industry. Paradigm Shift in the Game Industry ② Change of Game Industry ※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK) From To Loser Winner Buy S/W In-game monetization Paid games Free-to-play Buy H/W Rent access H/W firms Cloud firms S/W made for HW S/W for all devices Casual mobile Strong game titles Play alone Group play Single-player games Multi-player games Non-watching Spectator n/a e-SPORTS broadcasters CLOUD GAMING e-SPORTS 5G
  74. 74. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 75 2.1. Cloud gaming As the network environment improves with the proliferation of 5G, the cloud gaming market will spread. Cloud Gaming Market Size (M $) ① Definition ※ Source : NEXT-Generation Cloud Gaming Market Report-2019(IHS, 2019)(LINK) Cloud game definition ※ Source: Issue Report, Cloud Gaming Service Status (NIA, 2019) (LINK) Cloud gaming refers to a service that a game service company runs a game on a cloud server and transmits an action screen through streaming. The host app running on the user's device sends mouse’s or keyboard’s input to the server and the game runs on the server, making it possible to run any high-performance game on a device that can handle video properly even if the user's device is poor. . CAGR 41.4% USD 2.5B
  75. 75. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 76 Cloud gamings are expected to expand further as they benefit both game developers and gamers. Advantages of a game developer or publisher ② Background Benefits of the Customer Perspective ① Cloud games can expand the game market itself. - Once processed in the cloud, play on any screen ② Cloud games enable developers to better manage their work. - Everything is stored securely in the cloud ③ In the long term, cloud games provide an environment that does not require game development that is specific to a platform. - Of course, if cloud services are expensive, game developers need to develop for specific hardware platforms. ① Gamers can play the game immediately. - No shipping or download-save required. ② You can experience various games. - Once the cloud game market is opened, various kinds of games will ride quickly. ③ Mobile games have been limited by the processing power of mobile phones. With cloud games, high- performance games can be implemented on any device. ④ Users experience seamless UX. Gamers can stop playing on one device and continue on another. CLOUD GAME Spread
  76. 76. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 77 5G always guarantees 100Mbps, enabling 4K video streaming cloud games. Required speed for each compression according to the resolution [Reference] ※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK) 4K CLOUD GAMING service available with MP4 and H.265 compression implication
  77. 77. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 78 The transition to cloud gaming is changing the types of ownership, payment types, and monetization methods in the gaming industry. Game ecosystem evolution ③ Game ecosystem evolution ※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK) software Payment in game New monetization hardwar e hardwar e hardwar e Cloud gaming FTP FTP sports AdTech futureNowpastLong ago Buy Rent Free
  78. 78. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 79 There are many factors that will delay cloud gaming latency, if the overall value chain of Cloud-Transit-Client does not evolve. Source of Cloud gaming latency [Reference] Delay Factor ※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK) Cloud gaming latency(milliseconds) Process delay (Cloud server) Payout delay (Thin Client) Transit Response delay Processing delay Playout delay Network delay Memory copy Format conversion Video encoding Packetizati on frame Buffering video decoding screen rendering
  79. 79. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 80 Google has launched Stadia, a cloud gaming service. Stadia can be a game delivery platform or a game gamer advertising platform with Youtube. Google Stadia-Youtube virtuous cycle ④ Service Provider_Google ※ Source : Google plans to use its Stadia cloud-gaming service to gain a central position in the digital gaming value chain(Analysys mason, 2019)((LINK) The first gateway for game developers and publishers to enter the platform Access to games and content developed by stadia.dev. Shared User-generated contents created through Stadia Getting people's attention through YouTube strengthens developers to develop via stadia.dev and publishers release games through Stadia The more games you have, the more gamers you can collect. As more gamers share more content on YouTube, Stadia can attract more users and developers. Google Stadia - Google's service to deliver 4K, 60fps video games with cloud streaming - Chrome browser allows access to desktops, smartphones, smart TVs, tablet PCs, and Chromecast. - Integrate with Youtube and upload content directly to Youtube.
  80. 80. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 81 Microsoft and Nvidia are also expanding cloud gaming services with their own capacity. Microsoft’s Project xCloud ④ Service provider ※ Source : Project xCloud: everything we know about Microsoft's cloud streaming service(Techradar, 2019)(LINK) Nvidia GeForce Now - The service provides games based on the subscription fee for games uploaded on Nvidia server. - The service can be used with Nvidia Shield, macOS, MS Windows and Androids OS-based devices - The service was released since 2015 - The service is hosted in data centers in North America and Europe, the server is equipped with Nvidia graphics card. - Leverage existing XBOX services with Microsoft's cloud gaming service · Use gaming services by streaming regardless of device · XBOX games are being made available on PCs and smartphones beyond the console. Project xCloud goes beyond that to the cloud - To overcome latency, the biggest challenge for cloud gaming services through the global Azure data center. - A strategic number that wants to scale game services and cloud services simultaneously
  81. 81. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 82 Korean MNOs, which firstly commercialized 5G in the world, are seeing cloud gaming as a killer application, so that they are collaborating with Cloud gaming platform providers. LG Uplus & NVDIA Geforce Now [Reference] Activities of Korean MNOs SKT MS XBOX - Stream XBOX games to smartphone and tablet PC. - Play immediately without downloading and installing the game.
  82. 82. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 83 2.2. eSPORTS Consisting of teams, players, tournaments, tournament organizers, game publishers and broadcast platforms, e-SPORTS is growing rapidly every year. e-SPORTS Ecosystem ① Overview ※ Source : e-SPORTS PLAYBOOK FOR BRANDS(Nielsen, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source : Global e-SPORTS market report(NewZoo, 2019)(LINK) e-SPORTS Market Size Trend 22%
  83. 83. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 84 Just as eSPORTS is in the spotlight with high-speed internet networks, mobile e-SPORTS is expected to expand further with 5G. High Speed Internet and e-Sports [Reference] PC network is expanding with the spread of high speed internet network (1998 ~) With the popularity of StarCraft, popular pro gamer appeared, The broadcaster became popular as the game broadcasted. In July 1999, an unofficial corporation named Korea e-Sports Association was launched.
  84. 84. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 85 Korea is leading global eSPORTS country in terms of penetration between eSPORTS and game market. Penetration of eSports in Global Top 10 Countries [Reference] country eSports Market (M $) Game Market (M $) Penetration rate (%) Relative Market Maturity Korea 191 3,051 6.26% 100 Brazil 23 687 3.35% 53 Canada 47 1,790 2.63% 42 Russia 58 2,305 2.52% 40 China 235 15,336 1.53% 24 United States of America 227 19,621 1.16% 18 France 39 3,734 1.04% 17 Germany 33 4,262 0.77% 12 England 25 4,487 0.56% 9 Japan 34 11,643 0.29% 5 ※ Source : ESPORTS FACT & INSIGHT 2019(Yoshitaka Sakamoto, 2019)(LINK)
  85. 85. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 86 3. Autonomous Vehicle The key features of 5G are exactly matching the requirements of the connected car, and 5G will help to boost autonomous vehicles and MaaS services in the future. ① Connected Car Development 5G’s Features Ultrafast (eMBB) Connection (mMTC) Ultra low delay (URLLC) More comfortable More efficient More secure - The car is a space for relaxation and entertainment · IVI (In-Vehicle Infotainment) → ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant System) → AV (Autonomous Vehicle) - Eliminate social waste of resources, time, and streets due to inefficient ownership and operation · Car / Ride Sharing, On-demand ride hailing and Robo Taxi / Bus - Rapidly changing environment · To prevent or prevent traffic accidents ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant System) → AV (Autonomous Vehicle) Requirements for Connected Cars Direction of Development Autonomous Vehicle Mobility as a Service Autono-MaaS
  86. 86. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - Consumers with Moving Needs transportation suppliers 86 5G will help to boost on autonomous vehicles and MaaS services by improving data, IoT and artificial intelligence sectors. Autonomous Vehicle [참조] ☞ Except for the need for human ownership, the reason for buying and owning a car disappears, considering the need for mobility. [ 2.8 cm at 1m/s = 100km/h ] Mobility as a Service ※ Source : New paradigm of car, dig up MaaS(Publy, 2019)(LINK) Matchi ng Increased demand-supplier matching with 5G, IoT and AI Enhance awareness, judgment, and control with 5G, IoT, and AI 5G AI IoT
  87. 87. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 87 3.1. Autonomous Vehicle The autonomous driving level can be divided from level 0 and level 5, and generally speaking, it can be called autonomous vehicle in the true sense from level 4 autonomous vehicle. Autonomous driving levels for connected cars ① 개요 ※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK) Driverless Minds off Eyes off Hands off Minds on Eyes off Hands off Minds on Eyes on Hands off Minds on Eyes on Hands on Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Steps that the driver does not need to be involved in driving supportable with sensor V2X Required
  88. 88. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 88 For autonomous driving, the vehicle must go through self-sensing, judgment and control process. Requirement for AV ② Requirement and Logic Sensi ng Judgi ng Contr olling ※ Source : Self-driving car system composition and element technology and development stage (Future Infrastructure Research Institute, 2017)(LINK) ※ Source : Coming Soon, 자율 주행차(유진투자증권 , 2019)(LINK) Moving object recognition (Vehicles, pedestrians, traffic lights, etc.) Fixed feature recognition (Lanes, lanes, tunnels, etc.) Route navigation Vehicle control (Steering, Acceleration / Deceleration, etc.) Drive trajectory generation (Trajectory, speed, etc.) Situation judgment and strategy establishment (Change lanes, cut in, etc.) Precise guidance and positioning ADAS Sensor or V2X Communication Learning judgment and control system ADAS, V2X-based Ambient Awareness System Integrated Vehicle Control Solution Location tracking Terrain recognition Driving route Where is my current location? What is my current environment? What is the next expected behavior of other actors? How should I drive? - Accurately identify the location on the road by using the three-dimensional precision map prepared in advance reflecting the road situation and real-time sensors and communication data. - In-vehicle sensors, communication modules, and software scan surrounding objects to keep you informed of traffic conditions - Identify moving objects and predict future movements based on current speed and trajectory - Consider the impact of changing road conditions (such as construction) on the behavior of others and things around you - Choose the exact trajectory, speed, lane and steering controls you need to safely follow the predicted path - Safe driving due to constant environmental monitoring and predicting future behavior Judgement logic for AV
  89. 89. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 89 Sensor-based ADAS can meet the requirements for simple or fixed object recognition, but V2X-centric data collection is a prerequisite for predictive driving, traffic distribution in smart cities, and optimal route navigation. ADAS & V2X ③ ADAS vs. V2X V2X ※ Source : Leading the world to 5G:Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything(C-V2X) technologies(Qualcomm, 2016)(LINK) ☞ In order to distribute traffic in smart cities and autonomous parking, it is necessary to have a V2X infrastructure that can collect, store and analyze traffic information. ☞ Some sensor-oriented ADAS can be used for fixed object recognition, moving object recognition, etc., but V2X must be accompanied for safer and more efficient driving.
  90. 90. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 91 In order to build an environment in which an autonomous vehicle runs, a communication standard for a vehicle and other objects is defined and autonomous driving is possible based on this. Vehicle to Everything [Reference] V2X - V2V(Vehicle to Vehicle) - V2N(Vehicle to Network) - V2I(Vehicle to Infrastructure) - V2P(Vehicle to Pedestrian) - V2D(Vehicle to Device) - V2G(Vehicle to Grid)
  91. 91. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 92 3.2. MaaS By focusing only on the intrinsic value of the vehicle, movement, we can maximize the social and economic value of MaaS. Autonomous Vehicles, Robo-Taxi and Urban Vehicle Revolution (BCG / WEF) ① Benefits of MaaS scenario Form of ownership Urban policy summary Scenario ① Luxury car Privately owned - None - Autonomous driving is a complementary feature - Consumers own and use autonomous vehicles in the same way as existing vehicles - 1/4 of new car sales in urban areas are autonomous vehicles - 1/10 autonomous vehicles share (replaces second car demand) Scenario② Autonomous vehicles dominate the street Privately owned - Promote autonomous vehicles - Autonomous vehicles replace almost all existing vehicles Scenario③ Robo taxi succession Mobility Company - Policy to suppress individual car ownership is enacted - Promote autonomous vehicles - Robo-taxi first choice as transportation - Almost no private car ownership in urban areas - Autonomous vehicles will partially replace buses Scenario③ Mobile sharing revolution Mobility Company - Policy to suppress individual car ownership is enacted - Promote mobile sharing, autonomous vehicles - Robot taxi for mobile sharing is the first choice - On average, taxis will carry two passengers (1.2 on average) - Private car ownership will be virtually eliminated in urban areas - Autonomous vehicles will almost replace the bus. ※ Source: Sharing economy (Part II.Traditional industry with different frame) (IBK Investment & Securities, 2019) (LINK) Expected Benefits Number of vehicles accident Parking space Emission s Scenario ① Scenario③ Scenario② Scenario ④
  92. 92. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 93 3.3. 5G Impacts of Industry Change While autonomous cars and MaaS growth can have a positive impact on people's quality of life, the entire OEM industry has a negative impact on reduced demand and reduced bargaining power. ① Impact on the automotive OEM industry - Maximize utilization of vehicles · Eliminate fuel waste with optimal copper wire · Maximize your driving rate without parked cars - Reduce unnecessary environmental pollution · Eliminate unnecessary fuel waste · Eliminates wasted parts for redundant car manufacturing5G ☞ The sharing of automobiles can be extended to the sharing of everyday life, which can affect various industries. - Shrinking the Global Automotive OEM Market · Reduced sales due to higher operating rate per unit · Improved purchasing negotiation power of MaaS companies 5G & Vehicle Automotive OEM Industry Impact AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE Mobility as a Service
  93. 93. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 94 3.4. Global Autonomous Vehicle Markets The autonomous vehicle market is expected to grow to the size of 33 million cars in 2040 Global Autonomous Vehicle Market Forecasts ① Market Overview ※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK) 33m 0.05M - Grow from 5.1 million units in 2011 to 3.3 million units in 40 years - The first production of L4 autonomous vehicles will be in 2019. · All will be conducted by corporations and mass sales. · GM's Bolt will be sold to GM's shared car service provider Maven, shared car operator Lyft and GM's autonomous vehicle unit Cruise · Waymo will purchase Chrysler's Pacifica and Jaguar iPace as autonomous vehicles · Uber continues to order Volvo's XC900 2.4 million units - The car sharing service will be in the initial market, mainly in China and the US. - But the need for car ownership in Europe and the US still remains Market interpretation ※ The total car market in 2007 is estimated at 86 million units.
  94. 94. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 95 GM acquires Cruise, which enables inherent development and manufacturing of autonomous vehicle integration. In addition, Maven is providing its own MaaS. GM & CRUISE ② General Motors Partnership with GM's Cruise Acquisition Meaning and Advantages of GM GM's service portfolio - Company specializing in autonomous vehicles - Acquired by GM in 2016. - Funding and partnership through investment in GM (1.1b $), Softbank (2.25b $), Honda (2.75b $ / 12 years) in 18 years - The acquisition of Cruise Automation enables the integration of autonomous vehicle development into existing internal product development and manufacturing processes. - Product expansion is possible when Cruise AV development is linked to its own mass production system. - In-house service portfolios including OnStar (Telematics including emergency response), Marketplace (e-commerce including food orders), and Maven (vehicle sharing service) - Partnered with DoorDash (late time food delivery service) ※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK) GM's Autono-MaaS
  95. 95. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 96 Ford emphasizes autonomous cars in the role of smart cities. Ford founded Ford Mobility and used an AI external collaboration strategy. Ford in Smartcity ② Ford Ford's self-driving movement Partnership Ford Advantages and Disadvantages - Established Ford Mobility in 2016 · Provide Smart City Transportation Mobility Cloud Platform - Acquired and invested ARGO AI, a self-driving AI company in 2017 ($ 1b / 5 years) · '19 year VW Group invested 2.6b $ additional - Uber and Lyft Partner to Share Data Through ‘Sharedstreets’ Platform · Sharedstreets is a platform for gathering data and sharing traffic conditions for urban congestion management, mitigation and green gas reduction - Partnership with Lyft to launch autonomous vehicles in 2021 - Long-term R & D on autonomous vehicles and know-how about commercial vehicle business are strong in cooperation with MaaS companies such as taxis - As a part of the smart city, autonomous vehicles can be affected by the external environment more than they can. Ford focuses on the role of cars in the “smart city” and accesses self-driving cars and mobility services as part of the city's overall transportation solution. ※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK) Ford's Autono-MaaS Status
  96. 96. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 97 TESLA is constantly improving its current autopilot and preparing MaaS services for TESLA owners TESLA's Autono-MaaS Status ③ TESLA Tesla's self-driving movement Partnership Tesla advantages and disadvantages - Continuous improvement of the Autopilot program, Level 2 - Car sharing program for Tesla car owners - In October 19th, through a Deep Scale acquisition, '18, the autonomous car mentioned by Ellen Musk, would like to realize that cameras, radars, and ultrasounds are sufficient instead of expensive LiDARs. · Deepscale has very accurate computer vision technology while using low power processors · Deepscale's processors work with sensors, mapping, and planning control systems to help cars understand what's going on around them. - Mobileye collaborates with Nvidia to develop camera sensors and AI chipset internally - Strong image as Tesla's EV market leader and AV market leader by Autopilot - However, its capacity for mass production compared to its competitors seems to be insufficient. ※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK) TESLA AV Concept
  97. 97. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 98 WAYMO will expand its alliance with automotive OEMs and focus on providing autonomous vehicle solutions. WAYMO applied vehicle ④ WAYMO Waymo's movement on autonomous driving Partnership Waymo pros and cons - Company spun off as a subsidiary of Google self-driving car - Records tested over 10 million miles in real and simulation - Commercialize ride-hailing service · Limited 18 years paid service provided by Phoenix. - Financial support from the parent company Google, most tests completed on target date, and not building their own cars, a good relationship with the OEM. - Disadvantages of mass production capacity and OEM-dependent business model - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, Jaguar's iPace EV ※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK) WAYMO's Autono-MaaS Status
  98. 98. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 99 TOYOTA will support not only full autonomous driving but also driver assistance mode for fun driving. TOYOTA's Autono-MaaS Status ⑤ TOYOTA Toyota's move on autonomous driving Partnership - Simultaneous pursuit of 'Guardian mode' and 'Chauffeur mode' · Guardian mode aimed at driver assistance oriented fun driving · Driver mode aims to provide full autonomous driving for those who do not want to or cannot drive. · While companies are pursuing full autonomous driving, Toyota believes that it is difficult to fully autonomous driving in a short period of time. - At first, the focus is on the Guardian mode. - Founded Joint Venture called Softbank and Monet. - Monet provides ① On-Demand Mobility Service, ② Data Analysis Service, ③ Autono-MaaS (Autonomous Vehicle and Mobility as a Service) - Invested in Monet rivals Honda and Toyota's truck division Hino - -Investment in Uber and MoU - -Investment in Grab ※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK) TOYOTA's philosophy
  99. 99. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 100 TOYOTA is preparing autonomous driving and MaaS services inside, as well as MONET, a joint venture with SoftBank. Toyota Mobility Service Platform [Reference] TOYOTA ※ Source : Toyota Annual Report 2018(Toyota, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source : Toyota and SoftBank Joint Venture, MONET, starts Operation(Astroman magazine, 2019)(LINK) MONET
  100. 100. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 100 Toyota will build a 700,000 square meter future city near Mt. Fuji by 2021. 2,000 people, including Toyota researchers and their families, retirees, scientists, and industry partners, will live and develop the city with experiencing autonomous vehicles, robots, PAVs, and smart homes. Woven City of Toyota [Reference] Toyota in CES 2020 ※ Source : CES 2020: Toyota and BIG To Build A Prototype Future City In Japan(Forbes Link)
  101. 101. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 101 HYUNDAI MOTORS will invest 14.7 trillion won in MaaS, electric cars and autonomous vehicles over Y + 5 years. Investment Plan (~Y+5) ⑥ HYUNDAI MOTORS ※ Source : Hyundai Motor Company CEO Investor Day(HMC, 2019)(LINK) Autono-MaaS Strategy
  102. 102. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 102 Hyundai Motor established joint venture to develop and sell autonomous LV4 ~ 5 solutions with APTIV and JV, global leading autonomous solutions company Investment background ⑥ HYUNDAI MOTORS OEM Tier1 Comp. [Past] [Present] [Future : The era of AV] S/W Solution Tier1 Comp. Tier1 Comp. OEMOEM S/W S/W ※ Source : Overseas joint venture establishment and equity investment briefing session (Hyundai Motor Group, 2019)(LINK) Subsidiar y company ▪ Two subsidiaries related to autonomous driving IP Autonomous driving related patent, DB, S/W, all know-how manpowe r ▪ Core Technology Research Staff facility ▪ Autonomous Research / Testing Bases: Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Boston, Singapore, Santa Monica Total investment ▪ $2.0bn IP ▪ Autonomous Driving IP Licensing Vehicle modific ations ▪ Autonomous Vehicle Modification / Supply Dispatc h of manpo wer ▪ Dispatch of research personnel J V Share 50% Share 50% JV Establishment between Hyundai and APTIV
  103. 103. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 103 There are three business models of JV between HYUNDAI and APTIV. Business model [Reference] Development and sales of autonomous driving solution Remote support services Data sales revenue Sensor + System Vehicle Mounting Performance update and Driving Conditions Update Driving performance monitoring / analysis and Vehicle remote control and management Data Acquisition / Purification → Sales (Driving patterns, vehicle / road conditions, etc.) Sales to Mobility Operators and Automotive OEMs Sales to Mobility Operators and Automotive OEMs Insurance, retail, transportation services, etc. ※ Source: Establishment of overseas joint venture and equity investment briefing session (Hyundai Motor Group, 2019) (LINK)
  104. 104. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 104 APTIV, a spin-off from Delphi, an automotive parts specialist, understands existing OEM attributes and has proven and offered autonomous driving solutions. APTIV Status ⑦ APTIV In the past, Delphi split into powertrain division Delphi Technologies and battlefield APTIV. APTIV Status Aptiva Electric / Electronics Division Electronic / Safety Division Autonomous driving Development of autonomous driving system APTIV's autonomous driving movement - Autonomous driving test in Las Vegas with Lyft - Developing an autonomous driving program internally - Participated in the BMW-Intel-Mobileye Consortium APTIV features - Understanding Delphi's OEM attributes allows for rapid commercialization while at the same time proving technology. - Leverage existing parts production capacity
  105. 105. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 105 HYUNDAI announced the vision to become a smart mobility solution company at CES 2020. Vision [Reference] Hyundai Motors in CES 2020 Transforming to Smart Mobility Solutions Emphasizes the role of Hyundai Motor Group in Smart Mobility, which includes the Sky Urban Air Mobility (UAM), the Land PBV (Purpose Built Vehicle) and the Connection Hub (Mobility Transit Hub) Uber Unveils Personal Air Vehicle Concept and Announces Strategic Cooperation with Uber Cooperation ※ Source: Hyundai Unveils Future Mobility Vision for Vertical Takeoff and Landing at CES LINK)
  106. 106. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 105 4. XR Recently, extended reality (XR) concepts have emerged, including VR (virtual reality), AR (augmented reality) and MR (mixed reality). Over the next five years, the market size is expected to grow at an annual average of 70.5%. XR Market Size (M $) ① Market Overview ※ Source :Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2019-2023, ICT 통계분석, 2018 XR Global Revenue Forecast, Spring Edition(2018, ARTILLRY)(LINK) XR(eXtended Reality) CAGR 70.5%
  107. 107. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 106 The gaming industry may be the area of greatest interest in XR applications these days, but it is expected to be applied to various industries, especially medical welfare. XR area of interest to 2020 ② Interests of XR ※ Source : 2019 Augmented and Virtual reality survey report(perkinscoie.2019)(LINK) ※ Source : WAKING UP TO A NEW REALITY(Accenture, 2109)(LINK) Potentially Interested XR Areas (excluding games)
  108. 108. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 107 5.1. XR Application Areas and Examples As XR is applied to manufacturing and construction sites, it contributes to productivity improvement such as defect reduction and quality improvement. XR Case ① manufacturing and construction site ※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK) Contents Application case Market size (US B $) Design & Prototype Work instruction / production support - Visualize the structure from various angles and overlay elements designed on top of existing models for improved products and testing. - Workers work and repair while looking at mechanical drawings and machines in three dimensions. - Volkswagen, a car company, uses VR apps to help global workers design products simultaneously - Some Airbus workers wear smart glasses when installing precise interiors on aircraft. CAGR 133% Maintenance - Show historical and real-time data comparisons for improved maintenance and operations. - Allow remote experts to guide you for quality improvement. - TAE Aerospace uses wearable devices to direct remote product specialists to field technicians for repair and maintenance.
  109. 109. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 108 With XR, you can become a virtual factory worker wherever you are, and increase productivity by applying in-plant XR. Virtual plant or XR in factory [Example] Production Site
  110. 110. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 109 In the public sector, XR will be applied in the areas of safety and healthcare, which will enable efficient support. XR Case ② public ※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK) Contents Application case Efficient Safety Management Dealing with Crisis Patient care - Use XR with real-time public data to instantly detect illegal goods and illegal activities - Rapidly transport patients to speed patient search and rescue - XR은 스트레스 외상 장애 환자가 진행중인 가상 요법을 빠르고 안전하게 극복 할 수 있도록 도와줍니다. - The US Customs Service uses Microsoft's HoloLens XR device to detect intellectual property infringement. - HiRO drone and telemedical KIT uses MS HoloLens to allow doctors to treat multiple patients remotely. - XRHealth offers consistent non-surgical therapies by applying XR to chronic diseases. CAGR 133% Market size (US B $)
  111. 111. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 110 XR is applied to broadcasting and remote maintenance and repair to provide a more realistic communication environment for users. XR CASE ③ Communication, Media, Entertainment ※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK) Contents Application case broadcasing Realistic Storytelling Remote Maintenance and Repair - Through XR, viewers can watch broadcasts with the same immersive feeling of being at a sports game or show scene. - XR allows viewers to remotely participate in, or experience immersive experiences in places or environments where actual participation is difficult. - Workers can receive work orders, analytical data remotely, or get help from a real-time expert. - Turner Sports allows viewer to watch NBA games in real time in virtual reality. - The 360-degree VR service, developed by the UN, enables refugee camps to be experienced with the eyes of children living in refugee camps. - KPN's field technicians use Skylight smart glasses to query, conduct pilot projects with expert assistance and equipment monitoring. CAGR 114% Market size (US B $)
  112. 112. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 111 High-definition-low-latency connectivity and XR technology will provide an environment where professional repair technicians can check and repair at anytime, anywhere. This is expected to create a new chapter in hardware repair. H / W check like repairman repairs in front of A/S center [Example] Repair Center
  113. 113. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 112 XR provides the means for retailers to have a hands-on experience even if they do not actually buy or experience. XR CASE ④ Retail Service ※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK) Contents Application case Virtual fitting room Virtual product demonstration Visual Merchandising - Clothing stores can create virtual fitting rooms so that customers can try out a variety of products without actually wearing them. - Retailers use XR to help customers know what it looks like if they use the product without actually using it. - The XR headset's eye-tracking technology aids customer data collection and market research. - Topshop installed a virtual fitting room in their Moscow store using Kinect motion sensing technology. - Home Depot's Project Color app lets users virtually see how the room feels when they paint. - Accenture는 고객 행동에 대한 데이터를 수집하여 제품 및 유통 전략을위한 솔루션을 제공합니다. CAGR 135% Market size (US B $)
  114. 114. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 113 XR provides real time information to help improve the efficiency of transportation, loading and logistics management. XR CASE ⑤ transport, logistics, wholesale ※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK) Contents Application case Shipping to last mile Increased productivity Cargo Layout Management - Workers can use XR to provide information about the goods and their delivery routes so they can be loaded for the most productive delivery at the destination. - Smart glasses can help the most optimal loading by visualizing real-time data on the location, quantity and route of goods. - XR provides information on loading batches considering volume and size in relation to cargo loading. - GetVu displays ordering information on the AR headset for operators to optimally load their cargo. - GE Healthcare offers real-time information to help workers select items from the warehouse using XR glasses and load them into better alternative spaces. - Lufthansa Cargo provides employees with an XR-based solution that allows them to simulate and predict the amount of pallets needed before loading the plane. CAGR 156% Market size (US B $)

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