Apresentação intitulada "Valoração Espacialmente Explícita dos Serviços Ecossistêmicos da Floresta Amazônica Brasileira" (em inglês), proferida por Jon Strand, Consultor do Grupo Banco Mundial, no Seminário Internacional Oportunidades de Negócios para uma Economia Rural Sustentável: A Contribuição das Florestas e da Agricultura, realizado nos dias 14 e 15 de maio de 2019.

1. Mapping the Value of the Brazilian Amazon
Rainforest
Jon Strand
Development Research Group, the World Bank

2. Project baseline based on predicted change in Amazon forest cover to 2050
2

3. Key objectives of this project:
Develop new methods for measuring and mapping
ecosystem values for the Amazon
•Provide spatially differentiated economic values
of several ecosystem components for the Amazon
•Map both biophysical and economic measures at
0.25 km2 and 1 km2 grid sizes
•Parameters/prices given, or user defined.
3

4. Ecosystem services from the Amazon
• National and regional values (spatial values in this project):
(a) Sustainable timber and non-timber forest products
(b) Impact of forest cover on soybean and beef production
and hydropower via rainfall
• Broader/global values: Carbon storage; “existence values”
• Carbon values, mapped for all Brazilian Amazon
• Existence values, including values of biodiversity
• Other values were not included due to cost and data
• Will mention later.
4

5. Spatial valuation of the Amazon relevant for policy:
1. Where to discourage conversion of rainforest to
agriculture, as preservation values can be
compared to opportunity values (agricultural
use and timber values)
2. Where to locate new national parks and
indigenous zones
3. Where to most prevent illegal logging
4. Where to most prevent forest fires
5

6. Project team
• Jon Strand initiated, conceptualized and led the execution of the work
and its components, and put together the team.
• Team included biologists, climate scientists, hydrologists,
geographers/GIS specialists, IT experts, economists.
• Britaldo Soares-Filho, colleagues at Federal University of Minas Gerais:
“Valuation platform”, mappings ( http://csr.ufmg.br/amazones/ ).
• Marcos Costa, colleagues at Federal University of Viçosa: Hydrological
calculations and mappings ( http://www.biosfera.dea.ufv.br/en-
US/deforestation-and-rainfall ).
• Juha Siikamaki (IUCN), Ronaldo Seroa da Motta (State University of
Rio), Jon Strand: Stated-preference.
6

7. Mapping and economic valuation methodology
Biophysical properties and economic values assessed for
“sustainable” timber logging, Brazil nut and rubber harvests;
carbon; and impacts of rainfall changes on agriculture and
hydropower due to forest loss.
1. Timber values mapped based on “Reduced Impact Logging”
2. Spatial risks of current and future forest fires mapped
3. Agricultural/hydropower mapped for lost output as rainfall is
reduced by forest loss.
4. Biodiversity mapped, but not valued.
7

8. Mapping hydrological impacts of forest losses
( http://www.biosfera.dea.ufv.br/en-US/deforestation-and-rainfall )
3 steps:
1. Losses from less rainfall in South America, using a GCM.
2. Impacts on returns from soy, beef, and hydropower
3. “Reverse calculation”: impacts due to forest loss in the Amazon
Calculated impacts of deforestation on soy + beef about $10-
20/ha/year (minimum values).
8

9. Carbon emissions from deforestation
• Carbon density and value maps embedded
• Emissions when Amazon rainforest is lost ≈130 ton C/ha
(460 ton CO2/ha), as an average
• This figure varies greatly across the biome.
9

10. Aggregate value of components
included in the valuation platform
• Adds the economic values for RIL; rubber; Brazil nut; carbon;
and rainfall impacts on soy, beef and hydropower.
• Calculates protection value/ha/year across the entire
Brazilian Amazon, for these elements, in high spatial detail.
• User can insert prices for carbon, soy, beef.
10

11. 11
Spatial
distributions,
individual value
components, and
aggregate
(CO2 price =
$5.6/ton)

12. Stated-preference work, focused on forest loss, biodiversity
loss, and local climate effects
Per hh/month.
R$ 7.4
R$ 3.0
R$ 10.0
R$ 17.3
R$ 20.4
R$ 0
R$ 5
R$ 10
R$ 15
R$ 20
R$ 25
WTP to avoid 20% forest loss WTP to avoid 10% of species at risk of
extinction (not statistically significant)
WTP to avoid 20% risk of regional
flooding and droughts
Combined WTP*: Avoid forest loss and
regional flooding and droughts, zero
WTP for species extinction
Combined WTP**: Avoid forest loss and
regional flooding and droughts,
estimated mean WTP for species
extinction
12

13. Opportunity costs: Not yet valued
1. Opportunity costs = economic values from converting
Amazon rainforest land to other uses such as agriculture.
2. Only when opportunity costs are higher than the total value
of the protected rainforest (including all value components)
should deforestation be allowed.
13

14. Other elements not yet valued
1. Tourism and recreation
2. Bioprospecting (could be part of biodiversity values)
3. Health impacts (contagious diseases; air pollution)
4. Watershed protection; avoidance of droughts, flooding
5. Other local products (fish, hunting, gathering, etc.)
14

15. Amazon valuation: Complete values
• 1. Local and regional values
• 2. Carbon values
• 3. Value to the rest of the world of protecting the Amazon:
People in other countries are also willing to pay to preserve
the Amazon forest. Total such values (foreign, and domestic
WTP) are not clear, but are large.
15

16. Value components in Amazon rainforest valuation
(cont.)
• Values 1-2: This project.
• Carbon values, 100-160 tons of carbon (360-550 tons of
CO2) per ha of rainforest deforested. With a (global) carbon
cost = $30/ton CO2, the loss from deforestation is about
$10,000-16,000/ha.
• Global values: $5,000/ha for US/Canada alone (biodiversity,
and forest area); must add rest of the world.
• Values 1-3 must be added for global valuation.
16

17. Thank you!
17