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Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean
- 1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis 9 August 2021 #ClimateReport #IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis Subregional climate: Caribbean Tannecia Stephenson, The University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica Lead Author
- 2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis Caribbean Small Islands are warming. It is very likely that most Small Islands have warmed over the instrumental period. Observed temperature trends are generally in the range of 0.15ยฐCโ0.2ยฐC per decade
- 3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis Figure SPM.3 Increases in hot extremes have been observed for the Caribbean with medium confidence in human contribution to the observed change. Climate change is already affecting every inhabited region across the globe, with human influence contributing to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes
- 4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis There is low confidence in the direction of observed trends for Caribbean droughts. Climate change is already affecting every inhabited region across the globe, with human influence contributing to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes Figure SPM.3
- 5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis Caribbean Small Islands summer rainfall will decrease. Change in monthly average precipitation relative to 1995โ2014 for the Caribbean under increasing warming levels Declining trend in rainfall during JuneโJulyโ August in CAR will continue in coming decades (high confidence at 2ยฐC global warming and above). Magnitude of drying and the months showing drying increase with increasing warming levels. Percentage change in total precipitation for June to August for a warming level of 2ยฐC relative to 1850-1900. Global warming level (ยฐC) 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.0
- 6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis Caribbean Small Islands will continue warming. It is very likely that Small Island regions will continue to warm in the coming decades at a level slightly lower than the global mean. Annual DJF JJA Regional mean changes in annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation relative to the 1995โ2014 baseline SR1.5 states there is a high agreement and robust evidence that at the 1.5ยฐC global warming level the Caribbean region will experience a 0.5ยฐC to 1.5ยฐC warming compared to the 1971โ2000 baseline period, with greatest warming over larger land masses Precipitation in June-July-August is projected to decrease with increasing warming levels.
- 7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis Drought Projections At 2ยฐC global warming, Medium confidence: Increase in agricultural and ecological droughts, but including mixed signal in changes of drought severity, with inconsistent trends in total soil moisture. There is medium confidence in the increase in agricultural and ecological droughts in the Caribbean at 2ยฐC of global warming.
- 8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis 9 August 2021 #ClimateReport #IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I โ The Physical Science Basis @IPCC @IPCC_CH linkedin.com/company/ipcc IPCC: www.ipcc.ch Interactive Atlas: interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch Follow Us: