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Importance of the WG1 climate information for WG2 assessment
- 1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis 9 August 2021 #ClimateReport #IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Climate information for impact assessment and adaptation action Prof Daniela Schmidt Coordinating Lead Author WGII Chapter 13 Europe University of Bristol and Cabot Institute
- 2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Climate change impacts natural and human system
- 3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Hazards interact with exposure and vulnerability, but also our responses to climate change Compound hazards such as drought, heat and wind lead to larger risk which are harder to project Simpson et al 2021 One Earth
- 4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Simpson et al 2021 One Earth Interaction across sectors, time and space amplify risk
- 5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Concurrent heat and drought – compound hazards Severe impacts on vegetation Loss in forest production in central Europe Significant crop losses 2018 event Bastos et al 2020 2016 event Ben Ari et al 2018
- 6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Regional climate determines impact • SSP2-4.5 globally near term 1.6°C, mid term 2.1°C, long term 2.9°C • SSP2-4.5 Europe near term 2.1 °C, mid term 2.8°C, long term 3.7°C
- 7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Warming not only on land – increases in marine heatwaves
- 8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Marine protection does not move with species Brodie et al 2014 • Extreme events are accelerating impacts • Warming and acidification act in different directions • Species are on the move • Protection is local
- 9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis • A forest is an investment for centuries • Success of mitigation through reforestation depends on the environmental conditions • Mitigation options such as forest protection and reforestation need to consider temperature and precipitation not now but in 100 years time • Forests cannot just move when climate zones move northward and eastward Regional climate determines success of NbS
- 10. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data Decision making in cities – increasing resolution
- 11. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Climate change in not in the future – it is now WGI Chapter 12, Pending copyedit
- 12. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis 9 August 2021 #ClimateReport #IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Thank you. @IPCC @IPCC_CH linkedin.com/company/ipcc IPCC: www.ipcc.ch IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int More Information: Follow Us: