Overview Of Findings for Africa Region.

1. GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT 2018
Overview of findings for Africa Region
Ousmane Badiane
Director for Africa

2. GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT 2018
Overview of findings for Africa Region
KEY MESSAGE
TRENDS IN RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
OUTLOOK FOR CONTINUED RECOVERY AND GROWTH
MAJOR RISKS TO FUTURE GROWTH ACCELERATION
FOSTERING POLICY RESPONSIVENESS

3. GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT 2018
Overview of findings for Africa Region
KEY MESSAGES
THE LONGEST SUSTAINED PERIOD OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AFRICA’S HISTORY IS LOSING STEAM
THE REASONS ARE NOT ONLY CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
ECONOMIES HAVE FAILED TO RECOVER FULLY FROM THE LAST FINANCIAL CRISIS
THERE ARE SIGNS OF DETERIORATION OF POLICY ENVIRONMENT

4. Source: Oehmke, J. 2017
Annual rate of Growth 1996-2013-15
Africa performed better than BRICs and world average
TWO DECADES OF STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

5. Steady increase in annual
Agricultural Expenditure
Strong growth in ag.
Gross Domestic Product
+86%
+63%
TWO DECADES OF STRONG ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

6. Declining share of
Population under
Poverty Line
Declining level of
Malnutrition*
*) % malnourished population; under-5 stunted and wasted
-36%
-20%
-43%
IMPROVING POVERTY AND NUTRITION INDICATORS

7. THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO DESPITE PROGRESS

8. 400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Actual and 2000s trend for the future
1960-1977 growth path
3.2% annual growth
rate
7.0% annual
growth rate
to catch up
$700
$1,200
$1,900
Source: Badiane et al (2015).
!!!! At current pace of growth
It would take decades to make up for the lost ground
NEED TO MAKE UP FOR LOST DECADES OF SLOW GROWTH AND DECLINE

9. Robust GDP growth in 2000s has weakened in recent years
2003–2008 2008–2013 2013–2016
7.0 4.5 2.8
Average annual GDP growth rates, Africa
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
GDP Africa, constant 2010 USD (billion)
Source: ReSAKSS database, 2018
IS THE RECOVERY LOSING STEAM?

10. Exports grew during 2000s but started falling during 2010s
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Africa’s merchandise exports, current USD (billion)
Source: UNCTAD database, 2018
IS THE RECOVERY LOSING STEAM?

11. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inward FDI, Africa, current USD (billion)
Source: UNCTAD database, 2018
Sharp increase in FDI has reversed trend in 2012
IS THE RECOVERY LOSING STEAM?

12. ANNOUNCED FDI IN 2016 IS 25% BELOW 2012 LEVELS
▪ Service sector was the destination of ¾ of greenfield FDI
projects announced
▪ Top industries within services:
o Business services (24.1% of total projects announced)
o Construction (17.4% of total)
o Electricity, gas and water (16.6% of total)
▪ Mining, quarrying and petroleum account for total of primary
sector projects (4.9% of total)
Greenfield FDI by industry
Primary Manufacturing Services
Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report 2017
▪ Angola: 14.4
▪ Egypt: 8.1
▪ Nigeria: 4.4
▪ Ghana: 3.5
▪ Ethiopia: 3.2
▪ Mozambique: 3.1
▪ Morocco: 2.3
▪ South Africa: 2.3
Top Countries (US$ Billion)

13. 0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
General government gross debt, % of GDP, Africa
Source: ReSAKSS database, 2018
Debt ratios are lower than in early 2000s, but are rising rapidly
IS THE FUTURE OF THE GROWTH AT RISK?
▪ Cabo Verde: 125 %
▪ Lesotho: 520 %
▪ Mozambique: 98 %
▪ Mauritius: 96 %
▪ Senegal: 102 %
▪ Seychelles: 106 %
▪ Zimbabwe: 134 %
Countries
with highest debt ratios

14. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.4 1.4 2.8 3.4 3.7
Estimated and projected annual rate of GDP growth
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, 2018
OR IS IT JUST A TEMPORARY DIP?
Stronger growth is projected for Africa south of the Sahara in 2018 and 2019

15. Steady agricultural growth over the CAADP period, but short of 6% target
2003–2008 2008–2016
4.2 4.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Agriculture value added, Africa
(constant 2010 USD, billion)
Agriculture value added,
annual average growth (%)
Source: ReSAKSS database, 2018
AGRICULTURE GROWTH SEEMS MORE RESILIENT THAN OVERALL GDP GROWTH

16. Agricultural exports have reached a plateau
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Agricultural and food exports, Africa, current USD (billion)
Source: UNCTAD database, 2018
BUT IS THE ROBUST GROWTH IN AGRIULTURE AT RISK?

17. Strong increases in Public Agricultural Expenditure (PAE) replaced by decline
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
PAE, Africa (constant 2010 billion USD)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PAE, share of total public expenditure,
Africa (%)
Source: ReSAKSS database, 2018
BUT IS THE ROBUST GROWTH IN AGRIULTURE AT RISK?

18. 2003–2008 2008–2016
PAE annual average growth 11.0% -4.8%
PAE as share of total public
expenditure
3.5% 3.0%
Source: 2018 GFPR
Strong increases in Public Agricultural Expenditure (PAE) replaced by decline
IS THE ROBUST GROWTH IN AGRIULTURE AT RISK?

19. WILL THE RECOVERY ACCELERATE AGAIN?
 RECENT TRENDS SHOW THE EFFECT OF THE TRADE AND FINANCIAL CRISES OF 2008 – 2009
 BUT WHY HAVE ECONOMIES NOT FULLY RECOVERED?
 HAVE COUNTRIES FAILED TO RESPOND ADEQUATELY IN TERMS OF POLICIES?
 OR ARE WE ENTERING AN ERA OF LOW GROWTH?
EMERGING ANTI-GLOBALIZATION FORCES
CONFLICTS AND SECURITY THREATS
CLIMATE CHANGE
OTHER MAJOR RISKS

20. 47 Countries Reporting 30 Achieved MA Target
FOSTER POLICY RESPONSIVENESS TO SUSTAIN GROWTH RECOVERY
CAADP Biennial Review for accountability and results

21. FOSTER POLICY RESPONSIVENESS TO SUSTAIN GROWTH RECOVERY
CAADP Biennial Review for accountability and results