- Agriculture contributes 13% to Egypt's GDP but receives low public investment and expenditures on R&D. Population growth and water scarcity are increasing pressure on agricultural resources. - Food and nutrition insecurity, driven by poverty, climate risks, and policy instability, are major contributors to social vulnerability in Egypt. Weak agricultural markets and lack of regulations allow traders to exploit small farmers. - To improve agriculture and food security, Egypt needs institutional reforms, increased investment in innovation and extension services, improved access to finance for farmers, and policies to consolidate land and promote contracting agriculture. Without changes, water scarcity will severely worsen Egypt's food situation by 2050.

1. IFPRI Egypt Seminar : "Improving Nutrition in Egypt:
What is the Role of Agriculture and How do we
Document Impact?"
ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN FOOD
AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN EGYPT
Gamal Siam
16, November 2016

2. Main points
 Contribution of agriculture to the Egyptian economy
 Population/agricultural resources in Egypt
 Food and nutrition insecurity as a driver for social
vulnerability
 Constraints of agricultural and food policy
 Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and
food safety
 Towards right agricultural and food policy

3. Contribution of agriculture to the Egyptian economy
• Contributes to GDP : 13 %
• Shares in national labor force : 27%
• Ag. Exports as % of national exports : 15%
• Produces 60 % of Egypt food needs in average:
55% of wheat,
65% of maize,
70% of sugar,
10% of ed. oil,
80% of meat
• Generates income for 40% of population

4. Population/agricultural resources in Egypt
Total population (mn,2015) 92
Agricultural land (feddan) 8.5
Agricultural population (mn) 36 (40% of Eg.pop)
Nile water (bn cub.m) 55.5
16(bn cub.m)Other water resources
No. of farmers (mn) 5
Average farm size (feddan) 1.7
Holdings less than 3 feddans 80% of total no. of holdings
Women-headed farm households 20% of total no. of holdings
Per capita
Land (fed.) 0.09
Under WPL))Water (cub.m/year ) 603

5. Evolution of per capita land and water
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‫المياه‬‫من‬‫الفرد‬‫حصة‬(‫م‬3)
‫الزراعية‬‫االرض‬‫من‬‫الفرد‬‫حصة‬(‫فدان‬)

6. Food and nutrition insecurity as a driver for social
vulnerability
 Social vulnerability is derived from a large number of
physical and socio-economic risks among which is food and
nutrition insecurity :
 Food and nutrition insecurity
 Poverty
 Climate change
 Vulnerability to natural disasters,
 Water scarcity,
 Conflict,
 Policy and political instability risks.
 Interactions between drivers result in a multiplier effect on
social vulnerability.

7. Food and nutrition insecurity as a driver for social
vulnerability (cont’d)
 Affordability to food and poverty are affected by price
policies.
 Poverty, hunger and water stress are intrinsically linked.
 Low income households spend the largest share of their
income on food, which makes them more vulnerable to food
price instability

8. Drivers of Social Vulnerability
Food
Insecurity
Water
Insecurity
Climate Change
& Vulnerability
to natural
disasters
Poverty
Conflict
Inequalities
Politics &
Policies
Source: Gamal Siam, 2016

9.  Agriculture and Food sector has been marginalized
in terms of :
 public investments
 R & D and
 Institutions.
• Non-targeted subsidy for consumers proved to be
ineffective because of the mismanagement and
significant portion of it goes to non-needy people .

10. Reasons behind weak performance of agricultural
sector
Agricultural investment
• Share of agriculture in public expenditure : 2%
• Weak investment climate
• Weak rural infrastructure
• New lands
Problems of desert land
Do not contribute much to food security
Produce much of F& V of which 40 % is lost
Significant part of land and ground water diverted
away from agricultural production

11. Reasons behind weak performance of agricultural
sector (Cont’d)
Lack of technology
 Share of agricultural R&D in AGDP nearly nil
Budget allocated to Agricultural Research Center L.E 3 million
Budget allocated to Desert Research Center L.E 4 million
Budget allocated to Water Research Center L.E 5 million
Total R&D budget: L.E 12 million
 Lack of agricultural extension services

12. Reasons behind weak performance of agricultural
sector (Cont’d)
Lack of agricultural institutions
 Farmers organizations
 Laws and legislations
 Markets failure
Output markets
Input markets
 Ag policies
Wheat price policy
Rice policy

13. Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and
food safety
• In Egypt , the food production side is dominated by
small-scale producers with limited capacity of
production.
• In the absence of market regulations and lack of
information and weak producer institutions, they are
usually exploited by big traders.
• There are many of bottlenecks in the supply chains of
most of food commodities particularly with the lack
of marketing services and post-harvest processing
/transport/warehousing/distribution infrastructure,
food labeling, food safety measures.

14. Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and food
safety (Cont’d)
• In the supply chain of food commodities, farmers
obtain a little share in the consumer price
because of market imperfections, where traders
and distributers gain the largest share.
• Traders do have stronger organizations compared
to both producers and consumers.
• Producers are many and the majority are small
and have very weak organizations.

15. Egypt’s food markets: bottlenecks, regulations, and
food safety (Cont’d)
• Furthermore, the role of governments is weak
concerning the food safety and hygiene.
• These circumstances result in market failure with
high transaction costs, low quality and less diversified
goods available, high consumer prices, lack of access
and nutritional quality.
• However, big supermarkets and retail stores are now
spreading widely in the urban centers and big cities.
They offer high quality diversified food affordable to
high income consumers.

16. Lack of
ag.investment
Weak Ag.
Institutional
settings
Lack of
expenditure on
R&D
and Advisory
Services
•Irrigation system
•Infrastructure
•Public Services
Climate
change
Unutilized and
Underutilized Resources
Agricultural and
food production:
low performance
Low Yields (Yield Gap)
External Shocks and global changes :
( Global Market Fluctuations , oil & Energy prices , Bio fuel Production , Global Competition
pressure , Global Crises , Political Manipulation , Multi-national Corporation )
Technological gap
Shortage of Inputs
Low –quality Inputs
Inefficient ag.practices
Lack of international
technology transfer
Source: Gamal Siam, 2016

17. .
Production
curve
Economic
80% of
farmers
Non-
economic
Factor production
Production
Fragmented agriculture and efficiency

18. The right food policy
 What are the elements of the right agricultural and food policy ?
Targets :
 Improve food production
 Enhance farm household income
 Improve affordability
 Improve nutrition
Elements/instruments :
 Institutions
 Innovation (R&D)
 Advisory services
 Investment climate
 Contracting agriculture
 Consolidation of landholdings

19. 1. Institutional Reform
 Institutions: legislations, organizations and policies
 Reforming and development of the institutional and legislative
structure governing agricultural sector
 Appropriate agricultural policies
 Agricultural laws
 Government organizations and public services
 Farmers organizations : cooperatives, associations and unions
 Civil society organizations related to agriculture
 Decentralization and partnership
 Collective action

20. 2.Innovation: capacity for R&D and
technological upgrading
• Improved extension services plays a significant
role in raising yields through adoption of new
technologies and good agricultural practices
• Sharp increase in expenditure allocated for R&D
must be at the top of the policy agenda.
• Facilitate international transfers of agricultural
technology

21. 3.Extension services
• Improved extension services play significant role
in raising yields through adoption of new
technologies and good agricultural practices
• Extension services are out of reach for many
small farmers who constitute more than 80% in
Egypt
• Small farmers can not afford the cost of
extension services ,while large farmers can

22. 4. Agricultural Investment and Finance
• The share of agriculture in the public investment
should be increased to 10% from (3%)
• Farmers access to finance should be improved
to facilitate use of quality inputs at the right time
• Support the creation of insurance schemes and
improved instruments to manage risk

23. 5. Promote contracting agriculture
• Contracting agriculture is an effective instrument
for overcoming land fragmentation problem and
commercializing agriculture
• Contracting agriculture could be promoted
through farmer training or education
• Judicial system should be strengthened

24. 6. Consolidation of land holdings
• Alternative mitigation solutions
encouraging collective farming, through:
1.agricultural cooperatives;
2. agri- business integration and contract farming
farmer groups agree to aggregate their adjacent land
parcels for a given season and plant the same crop
benefiting from linkages to private sector enterprises for
value addition.

25. Future water deficit and implications for the
food situation
• Year Pop1 WNAU2 WA3 w.p.c.4 Ag.A5
2015 92 18.4 37.1 603 8.5
2030 118 23.6 31.9 470 7.3
2050 156 31.2 24.3 355 5.3
2100 300 60.0 (4.5) 185 (1.0)
 Food situation will be worsened with increasing population pressure
on increasing water scarcity
 Climate change and Ethiopian Dam will exacerbate food gap in the
future
1. Pop.: Population
2. WNAU: Water for non-agricultural use
3. WA: Water available for agriculture
4. w.p.c: Water per capita
5. Ag. A: Agricultural (Cultivated) area

26. Thank you