Dalia Elsabbagh1, Sikandra Kurdi1, and Manfred Wiebelt2 1. International Food Policy Research Institute 2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy Last updated: January 2021

1. Dalia Elsabbagh1, Sikandra Kurdi1, and Manfred Wiebelt2
1. International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Last updated: January 2021
Contact: Dalia Elsabbagh (d.elsabbagh@cigar.org)
COVID-19 in Yemen
How the Drop in Remittances Affected
Production, Household Income & Food Systems
Financial support from
Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this slide deck are the authors’ own
and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ institutions.

2. ▪ The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 10 percent decline in household
income as a result of 80 percent less remittances to Yemen in 2020. Beside the
immediate direct fall of household income (ranging from 19 percent for the
poorest households to 6 percent for the richest) lower household consumption
expenditures are expected to lead to an additional 2 to 3 percent of indirect
income losses via lower production and employment.
▪ Agriculture and food processing will be hit hardest, with output falling by 9.5
percent, followed by non-food industries (–8.6 percent) and services (-8.3
percent. While all food sectors are affected, the greatest economic damage
occurs in food processing, including grain milling and coffee processing, with
estimated losses of 9.7 percent.
▪ Low-income households will see the largest income losses, although higher-
income households also will experience significant reductions in their income.
Rural households are subject to slightly higher income losses compared to urban
households, with approximately 12.9 percent decline for rural households against
11.8 percent for urban ones
Expected impacts

3. Expected impacts on sector value added
Figure 1: Estimates of change in sectoral
GDP for Yemen during 2020, percent
change from 2019
Figure 2: Estimates of COV
Yemen’s agri-food system, p
from 2019
Source: COVID-19 Yemen multiplier model. Source: COVID-19 Yemen multiplier m

4. Expected impacts on food system
hange in sectoral
2020, percent
Figure 2: Estimates of COVID 19 impacts on
Yemen’s agri-food system, percent change
from 2019
plier model. Source: COVID-19 Yemen multiplier model.

5. Expected impacts on agriculture and food-processing
Figure 3: Estimates of change in agriculture and food-processing GDP, percent change from
2019
Source: COVID-19 Yemen multiplier model.

6. Expected impacts on employment
Figure 4: Estimates of change in employment during 2020,
absolute and percent change from 2019
Source: COVID-19 Yemen multiplier model.

7. Expected impacts on household incomes
Figure 5: Change in household income during 2020, percent change from 2019
Source: COVID 19 Yemen multiplier model.