Climate change will significantly impact global and regional agricultural production and food security according to a new analysis. The analysis uses an integrated modeling system called IMPACT to assess scenarios involving different levels of climate change and socioeconomic development. It projects substantial negative effects of climate change on crop yields in many regions by 2050, especially in Africa and South Asia. These yield declines could reduce gains in food availability and increase prices, potentially leaving hundreds of millions more people at risk of hunger. However, increased investment in technologies and practices such as drought-tolerant crops could help offset some climate change impacts and improve food security outcomes. Addressing climate change poses major challenges for decision-makers seeking to ensure global food security.

1. Climate Change and Food Security
Global and regional challenges facing COP21
Keith Wiebe
Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Washington DC, 10 November 2015

2. • IMPACT – an integrated modeling
system to assess agricultural and
food security scenarios
• Collaboration with all 15 CGIAR
centers through GFSF
• Collaboration with other global
economic modeling groups
through AgMIP

3. Climate and socioeconomic drivers
Representative
Concentration
Pathways
(RCPs)
Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark
et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.
CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing
(W/m2)
Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways
(SSPs)

4. Growth in global cereal production
(SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

5. Rainfed maize and climate change: Projected yield changes
in 2050, before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations

6. Climate change impacts on yields, by
region (SSP2, 2010=1.00)
Cereals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

7. Climate change impacts on yields, by
region (SSP2, 2010=1.00)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Cereals Oilseeds
Pulses Roots & Tubers

8. Climate and socioeconomic drivers –
impacts on prices
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
SSPsRCPs
Cereals Meats

9. Growth in total global demand
(SSP2, NoCC)
2010=1.0
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

10. Composition of food supply
(SSP2 NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

11. Net trade and climate change
(SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Millionmetrictons
Cereals

12. Population at risk of hunger
(SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

13. Exploring the impacts of improved
technologies and practices on…
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger
No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance
Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture
Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation
Crop Protection - insects
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Food Security
(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
Source: Islam et al. (draft)
Crop yields
(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

14. Conclusions
• Significant impacts at global and regional scales, reducing
gains in productivity and food security
• Significant differences across regions, crops, scenarios
• Economic responses reduce biophysical impacts
• These depend critically on policy and market conditions –
and decisions
• Significant challenges for decision makers at all levels

15. Thank you
k.wiebe@cgiar.org