Presentation by Kym Anderson, Professor of Economics, University of Adelaide and Australian National University, and IFPRI Board Chair delivered on May 13 at Peking University. The event, “New Normal for Economic Growth, Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security,” was organized by IFPRI and its co-hosting partners, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and National School of Development of Peking University.

1. Economic growth and agric. development:
What roles for food price and trade policies?
Kym Anderson
University of Adelaide, Australian National University
and Chair, IFPRI Board of Trustees
kym.anderson@adelaide.edu.au
IFPRI Roundtable on Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security,
Peking University, Beijing, 13 May 2015

2. The past three decades: China maintained food
self-sufficiency despite rapid industrialization
Growth in farm output kept pace with
growth in domestic demand, due to:
Household Responsibility System allowing
productivity catch-up
Increased public investment in agric R&D,
rural infrastructure, & rural human capital

3. China’s agric productivity growth
(%/year) Source: Fuglie et al. (2012)

4. The past three decades: China maintained food
self-sufficiency despite rapid industrialization
Growth in farm output kept pace with
growth in domestic demand, due to:
HRS allowing productivity catch-up
Increased public investment in agric R&D,
rural infrastructure, & rural human capital
Gradual reductions in direct and indirect
disincentives to farmers

5. Nominal rate of govt. assistance to
agric and manufacturing in China
Source: Updated from Jikun Huang et al. (2009)

6. Nominal rate of assistance to agric in
China and high-income countries
Source: OECD (2013)

7. What are China’s policy options for
maintaining national food security …
… while also reducing
the rural-urban income gap,
poverty, and
soil and water degradation?

8. What are China’s policy options for
maintaining national food security …
One option: limit competition from
imports of rice, wheat, meat & milk
Helps those farmers, but
hurts consumers of those goods and
adds further soil & water degradation

9. Modeling the world economy in 2007 and
2030: China’s food self sufficiency
Source: Anderson and Strutt (Food Policy, Dec. 2014)
China’s
self-
sufficiency
in 2007
(%)
Self-suff. in
2030 (%),
asssuming
no policy
changes
Import tariff
(%) to ensure
self-suff. in rice
wheat, meat &
milk, 2030
Rice 101 95 196
Wheat 103 97 114
Beef & sheepmeat 94 89 255
Pork & poultry 101 37 164
Dairy products 97 75 159
Maize 105 98
Oilseeds (soy, palm …) 56 35

10. Alternative policy options for China
Boost agric productivity through more
investments in agric R&D, rural
infrastructure, and rural human capital
Create/improve markets for labor,
capital, land, water
Replace farm price-support policies with
generic conditional cash transfers to poor
(& to reduce rural-urban income gap)

11. Share of adult population with bank
account or equivalent, 2014 (%)
Source: World Bank (2015), The Global Findex Database 2014

12. Advantages for China of avoiding
agric protection growth pathway
Consumers will get cheaper food and a
more-varied diet
Less stress on soil & water resources
Avoids disputes with WTO members
Opens possibility for China to use G20
Presidency in 2016 to lead completion
of Doha Round & reform of WTO
benefits from which would be largest for China

13. Thanks!
Huang, J., S. Rozelle, W. Martin & Y. Liu (2009), “China”, Ch. 3 in
Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia (eds. K. Anderson & W.
Martin), Washington DC: World Bank
Anderson, K. & A. Strutt (2014a), “Food Security Policy Options for China:
Lessons from Other Countries”, Food Policy 49: 50-58, December
Anderson, K. & A. Strutt (2014b), “Emerging Economies, Productivity
Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030”, Australian
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 58: 590-606, October
World Bank’s Distortions to Agricultural Incentives database, from which
the NRAs are freely available at www.worldbank.org/ agdistortions