Shenggen Fan - 2018 Global Food Policy Report - Tashkent, Uzbekistan

1. Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Tashkent, Uzbekistan | June 1, 2018

2. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
 Despite economic recovery, inequality is on the rise
globally
 Global hunger is increasing, driven by conflicts and
climate change
 Food production is strong and food prices are
declining
 Anti-globalism and the changing global landscape
may create further uncertainties
PROGRESS, UNCERTAINTY & RISING
ANTI-GLOBALISM
Food policy in 2017-2018

3. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Threats to
investments
Trade
protectionism
Knowledge & data
flow restrictions
Tightening
borders
Stalled farm
policy reforms
Weak global
governance
Anti-globalization Sentiments
GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM UNDER RADICAL CHANGES

4. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
 Open trade can contribute to
• Food security
• Improving nutrition through diversification of
food baskets, producers, and suppliers
• Reducing natural resource use and
environmental impact
 Design targeted policies in human capital,
resource management, and education to
address trade-related challenges and
externalities
Water content embedded in
international trade
Source: Laborde 2017
FREE FLOW OF GOODS
is key for food security and nutrition

5. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
 International investment is key to
eliminating hunger
• Increases production, improves value
chains, develops infrastructure, etc.
 Agribusiness investments benefit
local food security
 Promote public-private
partnerships for agro-infrastructure
and inclusive business models
Product and market focus of
investors in agriculture
Source: UNCTAD and World Bank
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT
benefits local food security

6. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
 Voluntary migration can improve food security
for migrants and families
• Increases incomes and reduces pressure on
natural resources
• But migration involves upfront costs that can
exclude the poor
 Integration of refugees into economies is
important for food security among refugees and
local communities
 Improve seasonal migration mechanisms
and innovative financial products to
facilitate migration
Household income and probability
of migration, Bangladesh
Source: De Brauw and Ambler 2018
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
plays a major role in food security

7. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
IFPRI dataset downloads
Source: Yerramareddy and Babu 2018
OPEN ACCESS KNOWLEDGE AND DATA
drive improved performance in food systems
 Accessible data is critical for decision making in
food systems, especially for nutrition
 Open data can enhance accountability of all actors
in food systems, including government
 Data quality and ease of use are essential for open
access to succeed
 Enhance knowledge transfer efficiency, and
empower citizens through capacity building
 Adapt data platforms to facilitate information
privacy and responsible management of data

8. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
ADDRESSING RADICAL CHANGES
is central for progress in the global food system
 Encourage an open, efficient, and fair trading system
 Support rural development to break the vicious cycle of conflict,
food insecurity, and migration
 Invest more in research and innovation for food systems
 Promote cooperation and mutual learning
 Leverage new opportunities in emerging technologies and
knowledge-sharing
 Enhance evidence-based policy making, maximizing the
benefits while minimizing the risks of globalization

9. Regional developments: Central Asia
Despite progress, malnutrition persists
Source: WHO 2017
Source: FAO 2018
Prevalence of under-5 stunting in Central Asia (%)
Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2017
Prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, Uzbekistan (%)
Progress in reducing undernourishment (millions)
Anemia in women
of reproductive age
36%
In Uzbekistan:
Women with raised
blood cholesterol
29%
Men with raised
blood pressure
27%
Source: WHO 2017, NCD Risk Factor Collaboration 2017
8.7
5.6
4 1.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Central Asia Uzbekistan
35
28
22
17
13
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
38 39
8 12
42 44
10 15
47 49
14
19
Men Women Men Women
Overweight (BMI≥25) Obesity (BMI≥30)
2000 2008 2016

10. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Regional developments: Central Asia
Steps toward cooperation
Source: Akramov, Ilyasov, and Park 2018
 Economic recovery
• Significant upturns in energy and metals
prices
• Resumed growth in Russia, a key regional
trading partner
• Appreciation of the Ruble contributed to
increased remittance flows from Russia
 Poverty reduction and improved food
security driven by remittances and low
inflation boosting real purchasing power of
households
 Improving environment for revived
cooperation in Central Asia

11. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Regional developments: Central Asia
Looking forward to 2018
 Opportunities are ahead
• Continued prioritization of diversification and shift from cotton production to
horticulture in Uzbekistan
• Uzbek public support strategy to create jobs, improve market infrastructure, and
improve food safety standards
• Favorable economic growth prospects, supported by rising commodity prices
• Positive impact of regional trade, investments, and remittances on household
welfare and food security
 Nevertheless challenges remain
• Risk of slow recovery in Russia due to expanded Western sanctions
• Remaining challenges in financial sector and limited employment opportunities
may have negative impact on poverty reduction and food security
Source: Akramov, Ilyasov, and Park 2018

12. Global integration of national food
systems will be key for progress in
Uzbekistan and Central Asia