1) Global CO2 levels and temperatures have reached record highs according to NASA and NOAA data, with 2015 being the hottest year on record. 2) Climate trends in India show increasing temperatures and variable rainfall patterns over the past century. 3) Climate change is projected to shift the areas under different climate zones in India, with some zones expanding and others contracting. This poses risks but also opportunities to introduce climate-smart agriculture.

1. Climate Change Impacts in Asia
AVR Kesava Rao, Suhas P Wani and Team
ICRISAT Development Centre
04 May 2016
Presented at the
Asia Regional Planning Meeting, ICRISAT, Patancheru

2. Global CO2 trends
Source: NASA-
GISS, CDIAC,
NOAA ESRL
May 1, 2016 407.47 ppm NOAA-ESRL
May 1, 2015 404.00 ppm Scripps CO2 UCSD
Highest-ever daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.44 ppm on April 9, 2016 (Scripps)
2nd highest daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.39 ppm on April 8, 2016 (Scripps)

3. Global annual average temperatures anomalies
(Relative to 1961-1990)
Source: WMO, Jan 2016
2015
2015 is hottest year on record

4. All India: Annual temperature anomalies
Period: 1901-2015
Departures from the 1961-90 average
Source: IMD, 2016

6. April maximum temperatures at ICRISAT, Patancheru

7. India – Rainfall trends
137 years (1879-2015)

8. Need for a detailed climate change analysis
to identify opportunities for
Climate Smart Agriculture

9. Based on CRU 3.23 data (Jun 2015)0.5 deg data, 1233 pixels
India climates: Area changes

10. Changes in areas under climate types
Period Arid S-Arid D-Sub-H M-Sub-H Humid P-Humid Total (m ha)
1955-84 0.00 17.96 12.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.81
1985-14 0.00 21.78 8.77 0.23 0.03 0.00 30.81
Difference 0.00 3.82 -4.08 0.23 0.03 0.00 0.00
Period Arid S-Arid D-Sub-H M-Sub-H Humid P-Humid Total (m ha)
1955-84 0.00 1.82 6.88 0.39 0.33 0.00 9.42
1985-14 0.00 4.48 3.39 1.04 0.48 0.03 9.42
Difference 0.00 2.66 -3.49 0.65 0.15 0.03 0.00
Madhya Pradesh
Bihar

11. Climate variability at Nemmikal, Nalgonda
 After 1978, climate tending towards Arid type, LGP reduced by 15 days
 Old varieties of Maize, Pigeonpea are likely to fail more number of times
 Potential for crop diversification and introduction of climate smart varieties

12. Changes in duration of southwest monsoon in Myanmar
Onset in northern Myanmar till withdrawal from southern Myanmar
(1955-2008)

13. Projected climate change related disaster risks in Myanmar
 Opportunity for drought and heat tolerant climate smart varieties

14. • Help in climate change
impacts assessment
• Cultivar coefficients for
groundnut, pigeonpea
estimated
Crop-growth simulation models

15. CC Scenario Seed yield
(kg ha-1)
Seed yield
(%)
Total Dry Matter
production (kg ha-1)
Current 2000 - 5430
HadGEM2-ES 1820 -9 5410
GFDL-CM3 1830 -9 5350
CNRM-CM5 1750 -13 5250
Climate change impacts on groundnut

16. Projected climate impacts on pigeonpea at Kalaburagi
CC Scenario
Days to
flower
Days to
maturity
DMP (kg
ha-1)
Seed Yield
(kg ha-1)
Change in
yield (%)
Present (P) 103 157 8708 2057 0
P+1C+20%RF 101 152 8866 2005 -3
P+1C+10%RF 101 151 8659 1961 -5
P+1C 101 151 8286 1875 -9
P+2C+20%RF 99 148 8525 1854 -10
P+2C+10%RF 100 149 8302 1809 -12
P+1C-10%RF 99 150 7798 1771 -14
P+2C 99 148 7943 1734 -16
P+2C-10%RF 98 147 7465 1636 -20
P+1C-20%RF 99 150 7090 1615 -21
P+2C-20%RF 98 147 6763 1486 -28
 Increase in temperature by 2oC reduces crop yields
by 16% and TDM by 9%
 Increase in temperature by 2oC, reduces crop
duration by 9 days without changing plant water use
 Increase in temp by 2oC coupled with decrease in
rainfall by 20% may result in yield reduction by 28%
AVR Kesava Rao et al., 2013

17. AP Rythu Kosam
ICRISAT Pilot Site Mandals
Code Mandal
17 Thullur
18 Sattenapalle
19 Kollur
20 Karlapalem
21 Konakanamitla
22 Kanigiri
23 Ongole
24 Kothapatnam
25 Podalakur
26 Indukurpet
27 Thotapalligudur
28 Venkatagiri Kota
29 Santhipuram
30 Brahmamgarimatham
31 Porumamilla
32 Veeraballe
33 Sambepalle
34 Raptadu
35 Kothacheruvu
36 Penukonda
37 Devanakonda
38 Banaganapalle
Code Mandal
1 Ranastalam
2 Seethampeta
3 Polaki
4 Parvathipuram
5 Pusapatirega
6 Chintapalle
7 Butchayyapeta
8 Padmanabham
9 Yeleswaram
10 Gangavaram
11 Thallarevu
12 Kamavarapukota
13 Akividu
14 G.Konduru
15 Ghantasala
16 Machilipatnam

18. Dual-purpose Raingauge
• Designed by ICRISAT
• Perhaps only such instrument
in the world
• Allows both manual
measurement and automatic
event recording of rainfall
• Also records air temperature
• Total cost including
equipment, testing,
calibration, launching,
installation and one-year
technical support is about
Rs.53,000/-

20.  Training to students to
operate and maintain the
Automatic Weather Station
 Students collect weather data
daily and display at the school
Weather awareness at watersheds

21. Suggesting optimum groundnut sowing period
• Pilot study in
collaboration with
Microsoft team
• Devanakonda
Mandal in Kurnool
district

22. Prediction of Spodoptera adult population

23. El Niño is present and is weakening
A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern
Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing
chance of La Niña during the second half of the year

24. District Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SWM POM
Adilabad 19 -8 50 32 25 -39 -54 21 9
Hyderabad -34 16 36 -8 175 -71 -37 8 118
Karimnagar 29 -7 44 19 31 -58 -27 20 12
Khammam -5 -13 47 27 79 -25 -63 13 55
Mahabubnagar -9 -14 40 0 93 -65 -65 6 58
Medak -11 -13 47 40 61 -30 -31 16 39
Nalgonda -33 5 44 3 94 -72 -90 10 55
Nizamabad -1 -5 73 1 100 -28 -45 19 74
Rangareddy -25 18 64 37 92 -11 -61 30 66
Warangal 1 3 45 70 91 -59 -52 27 54
Likely rainfall situation in Telangana during Jun to Dec 2016
(Under prevailing strong El Niño conditions till April 2016)

25. • Update climate databases at micro-level
• Climate change analysis and assess climate change impacts
using cop-growth simulation models
• Monitor weather at project sites through automation and
participatory methods (farmers and NGOs)
• Enhance awareness on climate variability and change
• Develop Climate Decision Support System including
weather-based pest forewarning models
Proposed work plan

26. We have no time to lose
• Global warming tolerance thresholds, not too far
• Adaptation + mitigation approach crucial
• Time to join hands to harness strengths of all partners
Time to take off
Thank You