This is the presentation from the CEO Deep Dive from the breakout session from Greg Clark.

1. ICCA Congress CEO Deep Dive
The Crisis of Cities
Prof Greg Clark CBE
Nov 2018 Dubai UAE

2. 2
A metropolitan century in 3 cycles.
1980 2017 2080 2200
We are one
third of the
way through
a 100 year
cycle of
urbanisation.
At the end of
which global
population will
stabilise and
c.85% of
people will
live in cities...
..and the
system of
cities will be
established for
the next
century
So the decisions we
make about our cities
over the next 30 years
are of critical importance
Four major trends synchronised over this century:
• Global Urbanisation
• Peak Population and Stabilisation
• Climate Change
• Exponential Technology

3. The Metropolitan Century: global urbanisation combined with exponential technologies,
demographic shifts, new geographies of development, and the drive for sustainability.
3
1. 1980 to 2080: A Great Human Trek.
2. Urbanisation from 45% to 85%
3. A new global urban system in train.
4. Synchronised with wider changes.
Technology, Globalisation, Climate,
Demographics, Geo-politics, Security.
5. New economics of trade, production,
innovation, and investment.
6. 600 metropolitan areas, nearly all
growing and competing
7. 30 multi-city mega-regions emerging
8. 150+ high income Asia-Pacific metros
by 2050. Race for quality.
9. Challenge is to make urbanisation
work.
10. Some countries are adjusting better
than others. Some businesses are
more proactive than others.

4. The Megatrends and Disruptors
1. Cities must be better managed and
integrated.
2. Systems are getting smarter and more inter-
operable.
3. New Industries are emerging and old
industries are innovating.
4

5. Discovery and application of new technologies disrupts and
accelerates cities, systems, and industries.
HSBC and Greg Clark Aug 2018
5
AI

6. Cities and Development Cycles
1st Cycle
Projects & Physical
Renewal
Promote the Metro
Tourism
Events
FDI
2nd Cycle
Assets
Specialist Agencies
Metro brand
Larger Events
New funding tools.
Entrepreneurship
Economic
development.
Strategic Visions
3rd Cycle
Managing growth and
diversification
Internal governance
reforms
Business Friendly Metro
Investment Ready Metro
Innovation
Universities
Shaping the future
PPPs
Metropolitan sphere
Broader leadership
Summits
Internationalisation
Integrated Identity
4th Cycle
Managing success at the
international scale
Competitive benchmarking
Eco-system management
Business Leadership
Dealing with success and
externalities
External governance
reforms.
Global Summits
Signature events
Identity and Reputation
Management
6

7. Oslo

8. Cities and business: 6 key trends
8
Cities are Emerging Markets for Businesses
Businesses are (Re)Urbanising
The Urbanisation of capital
The rise of Tradable Urban Services
Cities are Hubs of Business and Cluster Innovation
Businesses rebranding and restructuring to meet City
goals

9. Proactive Businesses in City Markets: a selection…….
9
Sustainable
Cities
Credit Suisse
Siemens
GE
Arup
Bombardier
Future Cites
Deutsche Bank
Bank of
America/ML
Microsoft
Atkins
GDF Suez
Liveable Cities
Mastercard
Hewlitt Packard
Engie
Mercer
Monocle
Grosvenor
Global Cities
JP Morgan
Aecom
JLL
AT Kearney
PWC
Smart Cities
BNP Paribas
Schneider
Cisco
Ericsson
IBM
Samsung
BMW
Healthy Cities
Morgan Stanley
BBVA bank
IBM
BP
Peugeot Citroen
Bankable Cities
Citibank
World Bank
EIB
ADB
IaDB
AIIB

10. Sharing Economy
Experience Economy
Circular Economy
Innovation Economy
4 New Urban Economies
Meetings Industry Roles !

11. What is the DNA of a City?
1. The physical geography, climate, and territorial endowment of the city and its region.
2. The social biographies of the city, its anthropologies and peoples, and their distinctive reasons for coming
there, being there, or staying there.
3. The origins, purpose, and historical rationale for the evolution of the city. This often includes geographical
and topological features and is only easily understood in a historical context. Archaeology helps to reveal
and understand these.
4. The embedded physical structure and vernacular design of the city, including inherited and prevailing
systems in infrastructure, land use, and architecture that have reinforcing influences on what is new and
‘added’ to the city.
5. The Mathematics of the City. The geometry, ratios, and calculus between land uses, infrastructures,
densities, and amenities and how they play into the capacity of the city and the conevenicne of the city.
6. The inherited assets of the city in terms of institutions, amenities, public spaces, facilities, business and
social clusters that are endowed from one generation to another.
7. The key ‘catalytic’ moments in the evolution of the city that have defined its personality, orientation, and
disposition. These are multiple, but there are often some that stand out as having ‘shaped’ the way the city
responds to opportunity and challenge. They are the ‘forks in the road’ that the city has taken and they
foster ‘instinctive’ reactions and the ‘learned behaviours’ that the city personifies.
8. The disruptions the city has faced and the ways that they have been dealt with adversity. The vulnerability
and buoyancy of the city. The epigenetics of the city. How it recovers from stress.
9. The institutional framework of the city, the extent to which it is ‘locked in’ to paths that may be unhelpful
or fruitful.
10. The position within national and or transnational systems of exchange and flows. The hierarchical
positioning. Leaders or challenger?

12. The Readiness of Cities for Cycles for Disruption and Opportunity

13. The Promise of Urbanisation
✓Poverty Reduction and Social Mobility.
✓Economic Development and Productivity.
✓Reduced Carbon Emissions.
✓Increased Trade and Connectivity.
✓Tax revenues, Asset Values, and Population Management.

14. Metropolitan Dividends and Good Growth
14
But only if metros well organised.
Growth management or growth mis-management.
Good Growth or Bad Growth

16. The Crisis of Cities
Segregation,
Social Exclusion
Two-tier labour
market
Traffic
congestion
Infrastructure
and space
over-use
Cost of housing
and living
Pollution
Opposition to
growth model
Sprawl

17. 1. Housing Costs

18. 2. Housing Costs
Source: McKinsey
Global Institute (2016)

19. 3. Cost of Living

20. 4. Segregation and Social Exclusion
DETROIT
White = pink; Black = blue
Source: Eric Fischer
PARIS
Green = rich; Red = poor
Source: IAU

21. 5. Congestion
Congestion rate, 2008-2016
(delay as % of non-delayed time, in leading global cities)
Source: INRIX (2017)

22. 6. Sprawl
Source: Matthew Hartnell
Changing Densities in the World’s Cities, 1988-2014

23. 7. Air Pollution
Pollution data, November 2018, AQICN
BEIJING SAN FRANCISCO BUSAN
TOKYOKUWAIT CITY SAO PAULO DELHI
BUDAPEST

24. 7. Air Pollution
Pollution data, November 2018, AQICN
BEIJING SAN FRANCISCO BUSAN
TOKYOKUWAIT CITY SAO PAULO DELHI
BUDAPEST

25. 7. Air Pollution

26. 8. Inter-Regional Inequality

27. 9. Over-tourism

28. 10. Opposition to Growth Model
Source: YouGov (2016)

29. The Big Questions
How can international association congresses and
meetings help to address the crises in cities rather than
be viewed as part of the problem?
What would ICCA members need to do to be leaders in
their cities on the crises that cities face?

30. 6 Scenarios and Tasks
1. Job losses
2. Congestion
3. Housing Affordability
4. Children’s Health
5. University Relocation
6. Identity crisis.

31. Job losses
You work in the convention bureau in a medium sized city with an industrial
heritage. The city has history in R&D, technology, engineering, and was beginning to
develop new jobs in the knowledge economy. Just recently a new fast train connect
to larger city was established. An unintended effect of the train is that more people
have come to live in the city to enjoy its affordable housing market, but at the same
time many jobs have moved to the larger city. Your city now faces an uncertain
future with the prospect of becoming a ‘dormitory’ city for the larger neighbour,
with fewer jobs and more homes.
The Mayor is worried about the situation and business leaders are saying that the
city must do something.
You will have meeting with the Mayor shortly to suggest to her how the city can use
the hosting of international association congresses as part of strategy for the city to
respond.
You need to prepare a 5 minute presentation. (reference city = Turin)

32. Congestion
Your team works for the Chamber of Commerce in a large fast growing city in a
rapidly growing medium income country. Population growth has been at 4% per
annum for the past 20 years, and income growth at 6%. This is leading to fast
increases in car ownership. Congestion and its consequences in lost productivity
are a major concern for international investors.
You want to bring more international association congresses to the city but the
congestion is damaging the city’s reputation and it would be politically
unpopular to make life easier for congress attendees alone. Currently all
congress venues are centrally located.
You need to develop ideas for a strategy to address the congestion problem and
present them to the Transport Commissioner. She has said that she wants a new
approach about how to tackle the problem which are affordable. She wants
international experience to be referenced in any approaches taken. You must
prepare a 5 minute presentation for the Commissioner.
(Reference City = Mumbai)

33. Housing Affordability
You work in the Economic Development Agency in a larger higher income city which is a
HQ city for an advanced prosperous nation with a medium sized population. The city is
growing steadily with knowledge economy jobs and young talented migrants. These
new tech jobs are replacing jobs being lost in the corporate sector and public services.
Over the past 10 years a surge in real estate investment has occurred, with many new
apartment buildings, but the number of new homes has not been enough, the costs to
buy homes has risen dramatically, and average rental prices have also risen with
institutional land-lords commanding higher rents.
The city now faces the prospect that it will become unaffordable for the new young
talent and the start-up businesses they work in.
Last year your city hosted the international congresses of the non-listed real estate
investors, and sovereign wealth funds, and hopes to host them again.
The local radio station has asked you to come and make a pitch as to why the city
should host these people who are they say part the source of the problem. You must
prepare a 5 minute pitch after which you will answer questions via phone in.
(Reference City = Toronto, Stockholm)

34. Children’s Health
You are the new convention industry association leaders in a fast growing poor
city when new industries are creating urban job opportunities for the first time.
Local firms are actively supplying garments to the global fashion industry and
starting to build a jobs base in manufacture of components for computers and
handsets. These new jobs are causing rapid urbanisation in your city as people
arrive in search of income. You want to start hosting congresses on IT and clean
manufacturing.
A recent UN report shows that high levels of toxins in the atmosphere are having
a detrimental effect on child health (respiratory diseases) and increasing number
of young people are also skipping school to get work.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank World Bank are willing to co-finance a
modernisation of the airport and a new convention centre but only if they can be
convinced that child health issues can be tackled as part of the development.
The two banks are visiting next week and you must prepare a 5 minute
presentation on how the growth of the meetings industry could help to tackle the
child health problem.
(reference city = Manila/Jakarta)

35. University Relocation
You are the Inward Investment team for medium sized Caribbean Island that is
part an archipelago nation. Your city is the third city in the nation and has a
history of good quality higher education with leading research on fruit
production, food refrigeration and logistics. You plan to attract global congresses
on all aspects of ‘agri-tech’ to help drive your economy.
But now the National University has decided to relocate its campus form your city
to the capital city on another island where it believes it will attract larger
numbers of students and sponsors. This means that you would not have the
leading researchers in your field resident on your island any longer.
The Minister for Education has agreed, in principle to the relocation, but wants to
hear from you about how you will continue to achieve your economic
development aims without the University Campus. The minister will visit next
week and she wants to receive a 5 minute presentation from you.
(reference city Port of Spain Tobago).

36. Identity Crisis
You are the CEO and team of the new convention centre in a well known city. This city was
once the heart of trade in your middle to high income country. Over the past 30 years there
has been a tourism boom. Everyone now thinks of your city as mainly a sunshine holiday
resort, even though you still have a thriving port, engineering sector, good universities, a
start-up scene, and successful trading businesses. Indeed last year in ‘an online media
survey’ your city was rated the best place to meet a future partner on holiday, and the worst
place to think about raising a family or starting a business.
You have a dilemma, it is easy to get people to visit your city, but they only want to come for
fun. Indeed people who attend congresses in your city are frequently not in the congress hall
much of the time.
Your new convention centre has been offered substantial support from the State Governor if
it can develop a new image for the city and create a new reputation as a serious city that is
not just place of fun. The Governor is coming to meet you next week and she wants a 5
minute presentation on your ideas and the costs involved.
(reference city Miami, Barcelona, San Diego)