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Return and Risk The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Chapter Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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10.1 Individual Securities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance
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10.3 The Return and Risk for Portfolios ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Expected Return on a Portfolio  ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Variance of the Portfolio  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Diversification Effect ,[object Object]
An Extension to Many Assets ,[object Object]
10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets ,[object Object],[object Object]
10.4 The Efficient Set for Two Assets   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
10.5 The Efficient Set for Many Securities ,[object Object],return  P Individual Assets
The Efficient Set for Many Securities ,[object Object],return  P minimum variance portfolio efficient frontier Individual Assets
10.6 Diversification: An Example  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Total Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Systematic Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Unsystematic (Diversifiable) Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
10.7 Riskless Borrowing and Lending ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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10.8 Market Equilibrium
Definition of the Market-Equilibrium Portfolio  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Formula for Beta
Definition of Risk When Investors hold the Market Portfolio  ,[object Object],[object Object]
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10.9 Relationship between Risk and Expected Return (CAPM) ,[object Object],[object Object],Market Risk Premium This applies to individual securities held within well-diversified portfolios.
Expected Return on a Security ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Expected return on a security = Risk-free rate + Beta of the security × Market risk premium
Expected Return on  Individual Security  (1/2)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expected Return on Individual Security (2/2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
 
 
2 6 25
CML Var(R P ) = σ p 2  =  a 2 σ m 2 σ p  = a*σ m   a = σ p  / σ m  ( 代入 E(R P ) 中 ) E(R P ) = (1-a) R f  + a*E(R m )  , a>0 E(R P ) = R f  + ( σ p  / σ m )*[E(R m )-R f ] = R f  + { [E(R m )-R f ] /  σ m  } *  σ p   riskless asset market portfolio
 
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CML Var(R P ) = σ p 2  =  a 2 σ m 2 σ p  = a*σ m   a = σ p  / σ m  ( 代入 E(R P ) 中 ) E(R P ) = (1-a) R f  + a*E(R m )  , a>0 E(R P ) = R f  + ( σ p  / σ m )*[E(R m )-R f ] = R f  + { [E(R m )-R f ] /  σ m  } *  σ p   riskless asset market portfolio
β p = = = = + = + = W 1   β 1  +  W 2  β 2 σ pm σ m 2 E{ [W 1 R 1 +W 2 R 2 –W 1 E(R 1 )–W 2 E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )]} σ m 2 E{ [W 1 (R 1 –E(R 1 ) +W 2 (R 2 –E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )]} σ m 2 E [W 1 (R 1 –E(R 1 )]*[R m –E(R m )] σ m 2 E [W 2 (R 2 –E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )] σ m 2 σ m 2 W 1 σ 1m σ m 2 W 2 σ 2m
E(R A ) = 15.0% E(R Z ) = 8.6% E(R P ) =  0.5 *15.0% +  0.5 *8.6%   =  11.8% Beta of Portfolio: =  0.5 *1.5 +  0.5 *0.7 =  1.1 Under the CAPM, the E(R P ) is E(R P ) = 3% +  1.1 *8.0%    =  11.8%
σ p 2  = E [R P –E(R P )] 2 = E [(W 1 R 1 +W 2 R 2 ) – (W 1 E(R 1 ) + W 2 E(R 2 ))] 2 = E [(W 1 (R 1  – E(R 1 )) + W 2 (R 2  – E(R 2 )] 2 = = W 1 2 σ 1 2  + W 2 2 σ 2 2  +  2W 1 W 2 E [(R 1  – E(R 1 ))*(R 2  – E(R 2 )] W 1 2 σ 1 2  + W 2 2 σ 2 2  +  2W 1 W 2  σ 1 2   = W 1 2 σ 1 2   W 2 2 σ 2 2 W 1 W 2  σ 1 2   W 2 W 1 σ 21   設 Portfolio 中只有兩種資產 Σ W i 2 σ i 2  + Σ Σ W i W j  σ ij i=1 2 i=1 2 j=1 2 i≠j
σ p 2  = = + + = + = = (when N->∞) (10.10) Σ X i 2 σ i 2  + Σ Σ X i X j  σ ij i=1 N i=1 N j=1 i≠j N N N 2 1 Var N(N – 1) N 2 1 COV N 1 Var N(N – 1) N 2 COV N 1 Var COV (N – 1) N COV
Portfolio Risk and Number of Stocks Nondiversifiable risk; Systematic Risk; Market Risk Diversifiable Risk; Nonsystematic Risk; Firm Specific Risk; Unique Risk n  In a large portfolio the variance terms are effectively diversified away, but the covariance terms are not.  Portfolio risk

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Chap010

  • 1. Return and Risk The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
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  • 5. 10.2 Expected Return, Variance, and Covariance
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  • 40. CML Var(R P ) = σ p 2 = a 2 σ m 2 σ p = a*σ m a = σ p / σ m ( 代入 E(R P ) 中 ) E(R P ) = (1-a) R f + a*E(R m ) , a>0 E(R P ) = R f + ( σ p / σ m )*[E(R m )-R f ] = R f + { [E(R m )-R f ] / σ m } * σ p riskless asset market portfolio
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  • 43. CML Var(R P ) = σ p 2 = a 2 σ m 2 σ p = a*σ m a = σ p / σ m ( 代入 E(R P ) 中 ) E(R P ) = (1-a) R f + a*E(R m ) , a>0 E(R P ) = R f + ( σ p / σ m )*[E(R m )-R f ] = R f + { [E(R m )-R f ] / σ m } * σ p riskless asset market portfolio
  • 44. β p = = = = + = + = W 1 β 1 + W 2 β 2 σ pm σ m 2 E{ [W 1 R 1 +W 2 R 2 –W 1 E(R 1 )–W 2 E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )]} σ m 2 E{ [W 1 (R 1 –E(R 1 ) +W 2 (R 2 –E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )]} σ m 2 E [W 1 (R 1 –E(R 1 )]*[R m –E(R m )] σ m 2 E [W 2 (R 2 –E(R 2 )]*[R m –E(R m )] σ m 2 σ m 2 W 1 σ 1m σ m 2 W 2 σ 2m
  • 45. E(R A ) = 15.0% E(R Z ) = 8.6% E(R P ) = 0.5 *15.0% + 0.5 *8.6% = 11.8% Beta of Portfolio: = 0.5 *1.5 + 0.5 *0.7 = 1.1 Under the CAPM, the E(R P ) is E(R P ) = 3% + 1.1 *8.0% = 11.8%
  • 46. σ p 2 = E [R P –E(R P )] 2 = E [(W 1 R 1 +W 2 R 2 ) – (W 1 E(R 1 ) + W 2 E(R 2 ))] 2 = E [(W 1 (R 1 – E(R 1 )) + W 2 (R 2 – E(R 2 )] 2 = = W 1 2 σ 1 2 + W 2 2 σ 2 2 + 2W 1 W 2 E [(R 1 – E(R 1 ))*(R 2 – E(R 2 )] W 1 2 σ 1 2 + W 2 2 σ 2 2 + 2W 1 W 2 σ 1 2 = W 1 2 σ 1 2 W 2 2 σ 2 2 W 1 W 2 σ 1 2 W 2 W 1 σ 21 設 Portfolio 中只有兩種資產 Σ W i 2 σ i 2 + Σ Σ W i W j σ ij i=1 2 i=1 2 j=1 2 i≠j
  • 47. σ p 2 = = + + = + = = (when N->∞) (10.10) Σ X i 2 σ i 2 + Σ Σ X i X j σ ij i=1 N i=1 N j=1 i≠j N N N 2 1 Var N(N – 1) N 2 1 COV N 1 Var N(N – 1) N 2 COV N 1 Var COV (N – 1) N COV
  • 48. Portfolio Risk and Number of Stocks Nondiversifiable risk; Systematic Risk; Market Risk Diversifiable Risk; Nonsystematic Risk; Firm Specific Risk; Unique Risk n  In a large portfolio the variance terms are effectively diversified away, but the covariance terms are not. Portfolio risk