Enterprise Architecture Future Landscape Envisioning

Enterprise Architecture – Future Landscape Envisioning
Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting
EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework v.10.0

La fortune favorise les audacieux….. le changement les faveurs que le puits a préparées.

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Sources
Strategic Enterprise Foresight – Strategy & Planning – EA-envision™
Management Framework Future Architecture Landscape ™

Strategic Analysis Five Visions of the Future™ Technology Futures™
Framework

Futures Framework Thinking About the Future™ Peter Bishop and Andy Hines
University of Houston in Texas™

Eltville Model Five Views of the Future™ Future Management Group™

Horizon Scanning 21 Drivers for the 21st Century™ Outsights™

Applied Future Studies Infinite Futures Wendy Schultz

Transhumanism Natasha Vita-More Extropy Institute, President
Cultural Strategist Futurist Arts & Culture, Founder

Brainstorming Advanced 'Kaleidoscope Businessballs.com
Brainstorming'© technique

Massive Change The Massive Change Project Bruce Mau Design and the Institute
Without Boundaries

Foresight and Precognition The Sixth Sense Kees Van der Heijden
Precognition Jeffry Palmer
Precognition: Sensing the Future Rita Berkowitz, Deborah S. Romaine

EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework

Futurology Organisations
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• Established Management • Established Foresight, Planned and
Consultancies with Foresight Practices Managed Futures Consultancies
– Booze & Co – Kate Thomas & Kleyn Future Management
– The Boston Group – Outsights
– AT Kearney – Technology Futures Inc. (TFI)
– Arthur D. Little • Emerging Futures and Horizon Scanning
Consultancies - challengers
– McKinsey
– Monitor – Core UK
– Roland Berger – The Structure Group (TSG)
• Niche / Boutique Futurology • Futurology Associations and Institutes
Consultancies – rising stars – Association of Professional; Futurists (APF)
– Fast Future – Extropy Institute
– Foresight Consulting – The European Futures Conference
– future directions GmbH – The European Futures Observatory
– futurestudies – Global Foresight Network
– Future Management Group – Institute Without Boundaries
– Future Trends – Shaping Tomorrow - The Foresight Network
– Infinite Futures – The Institute for the Future
– Leading Futurists – Strategic Foresight Network
– Strategic Foresight Consultancy – ZUKUNFTSINSTITUT
– Sutherland Consulting – ZUKUNFTSFORSCHUNG
– The Futures Group – ZUKUNFTSMANAGEMENTS


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Future Objectives
• It has long been recognised that one of the most important competitive
factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty.
Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of
failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business: -

– Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy
– M&A Integration and Business Restructuring
– Business Planning and Forecasting
– Strategic Finance and Investment
– Business Transformation
– Programme Management
– Enterprise Architecture
– Enterprise Risk Management
– Enterprise Performance Management
– Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls
– Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Management


EA-envision
Future Objectives
• Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and
implementing Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks for the
following subject areas –

– Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Framework
– Business Planning and Forecasting Framework
– Business Transformation Framework
– Programme Management Framework
– Enterprise Architecture Framework
– Enterprise Risk Management Framework
– Enterprise Performance Management Framework
– Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Framework
– Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Framework

• This paper describes an approach fpr introducing, developing and
implementing such Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks


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Future Objectives
• Our mission is to deliver a set of products which are free-to-use at point of distribution
(starter pack) that makes managing the Future much more accessible to future
stakeholders (everyone…..) This may include (but is not restricted to) some or all of
the following: -

• Future Starter Pack • Future Framework
– Introduction – Advanced Methods & Techniques
– Basic Methods & Techniques – Guidelines and Best Practice
• Futures Studies • Future Governance
– Future Paradigms – Principles and Policies
– Prediction and Futurology – Approaches and Standards
– Strategists versus Futurists • Future Toolkit
– Foresight – Enterprise Modelling
– Forecasting • (e.g. Aris, Computas from Metis)
– Horizon Scanning – Visualisation Tools
– Risk Management • (e.g. Visual Paradigm)
– Repository Tools
– Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
• (e.g. Adaptive)
– Master Plan and Future Roadmap
– Planning / Simulation Tools
• Future Resources
• (e.g. PlanView, PlanningIT)
– Templates
– Statistical Analysis – Monte Carlo – CHAID
– Reference Models
– Analytics – Goal-seeking – Scenarios
– Collaboration, Futures Organisations,
– Data Mining – Propensity Modelling
Networking. & Knowledge Management



1. Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks 6. Business Strategy Development
1.1 SEM Framework Design and Development 6.1 Business Innovation
1.2 SEM Framework Deployment and Implementation 6.2 Technology Innovation
2. Foresight Approaches and Methods 6.3 Strategy Discovery
2.1. Future Study Domain - Framing and Scoping 6.4 Strategy Development
2.2. Horizon Scanning and Delphi Oracle
6.5 Enterprise Performance Strategy
2.3. Strategic Envisioning and Predictive Models
6.6 Business Transformation Strategy
2.4. Possible Futures and Alternative Futures
7. Current / Future Business Models
2.5. Preferred Futures and Desired Outcomes
7.1 Operational Model - Process Execution, Integration &
2.6. Strategic Forecasting and Planning
Orchestration, Collaboration, Workgroups & Workflow
2.7. Managed Futures Implementation and Execution
7.2 Tactical Model - Analysis, Reporting and Communication
3. Foresight Tools & Techniques
7.3 Strategic Model - Command, Control and Co-ordination
3.1. Trend / Extrapolation Analysis
3.2. Precursor / Pattern Analysis 8. Enterprise Performance Management
3.3. Scenario / Goal Analysis 8.1. Critical Success Factors
3.4. Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century 8.2. Key Performance Indicators
3.5. Game Theory / Monte Carlo Simulation
8.3. Business Metrics
3.6. Boston Group Matrix / Five Forces / SWOT Analysis
9. Business Transformation
3.7. Threat Assessment / Risk Management
9.1. Business Transition Planning
3.8. Data Mining / Statistical Analysis
9.2. Business Process Management
4. Future Enterprise Architecture Blueprint
9.3. Business Programme Planning
4.1. Business Landscape Envisioning
9.4. Business Change Management
4.2. Application Landscape Envisioning
4.3. Technology Landscape Envisioning 9.5. Organization Management
4.4. Business Roadmap Planning 9.6. Human Resource Management
4.5. Application Roadmap Planning
10. Business Programme Management
4.6. Technology Roadmap Planning
10.1. Benefits Realisation Strategy
4.7 Business Architecture Blueprint
10.2. Communications Strategy
4.7.1. Organisation Architecture Blueprint
10.3. Stakeholder Management Strategy
4.7.2. Process Architecture Blueprint
4.7.3. Data Architecture Blueprint 11. Enterprise Portfolio Management
4.7.4. Information Architecture Blueprint 11.1. Project Portfolio Management
4.8. Application Architecture Blueprint 11.2. Application Portfolio Management
4.9. Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint 11.3. Technology Portfolio Management
4.10. Architecture Visualisation, Scenarios and Simulation
12. Publish Current / Future Enterprise Architecture
5. Publish Current / Future Business Master Plan

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Futures Studies Framework
Futures Studies

Political Ethnographic & Science &
Environmental
Economic
Strategic Sociology and
Science and Demographic Technology
Futures
Futures
Foresight Human Futures
Policy Futures Futures Horizons

Human Identity. Science and Society
Foundations, History
History and Culture Futures
Demographics
and Philosophy of Economic Theory Earth Sciences
Political Science
17. Outsights
12. Outsights
Prediction
Science and Society
Identity

Future Frameworks, Religion, Values and
Economic Planning Bio-Technology and
Paradigms, Methods Policy Studies Psychographics Life Sciences
Beliefs
and Strategy Medical Science
& Techniques

Future Strategy, Urbanisation and the
Sustainability and Sustainability and
Philosophy and
Planning, Governance, Law Growth of Cities
Ethnographics Renewable Renewable
Ethical Studies
Forecasting, and Order 21. Outsights
Resources (1) Resources (2)
Modelling & Analysis Urbanisation

Peace and Conflict
Shaping the Future - Nano-Technology
Corporate Finance
Studies Psychology and Global Massive
Planned and Biographics and
and Strategic Patterns of Behaviour Change
1. Outsights War,
Managed Outcomes Artificial Intelligence
Investment
Terrorism, Security

Financial Markets Transhumanism
Threat Assessment & Information and
Military Science and Traded The Arts
Risk Management Communication
Instruments Natasha Vita-Moore

Innovation and
Business Weapons and
Communications and
Entrepreneurial
Administration Countermeasures
Media Studies
Studies

Futures Collaboration
Cosmology and
Networking &
Space Science
Knowledge
Management

Futures Studies Framework
Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27)
Futures Studies History and Analysis of Prediction
Alternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking
Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction
Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced)
Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science
Strategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk Management
Scenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-casting
Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment
Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change
Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning
Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies
Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis
Environment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping
Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research
Knowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, Facilitation
Predictive Envisioning Intuition and Pre-cognition
Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies
Massive Global Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact Analysis
Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science
Cognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight Development
Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle
Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)
Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management
Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies
Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards
Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts
Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future

Futures Discovery

Après la tempête c'est calme….. plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

“Take hold of your future - or your future will take hold of you…..” (Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005)

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The Management of Uncertainty

• It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive
factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty.

• Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of
failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business.

• Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and
implementing strategic enterprise management frameworks for –

– Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy
– Business Planning and Forecasting
– Business Transformation
– Enterprise Architecture
– Enterprise Risk Management
– Enterprise Performance Management
– Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls


EA-envision
Futures Studies

• Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the practice and art of
postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures . Futures studies
(colloquially called quot;Futuresquot; by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to
understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is
novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based
understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future
events and trends.

• Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's
changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional
strategies, bets and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing
the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to
develop foresight and to map possible futures.

• Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies,
strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring,
futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th
century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in
Spain and Latin America). Futures studies (and one of its sub-disciplines,
strategic foresight) are the academic field's most commonly used terms in
the English-speaking world.

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Foresight
• In Futures Studies, the term quot; Foresightquot; embraces: -
– Critical thinking concerning long-term policy development,
– Debate and consultation to create wider stakeholder participation,
– Shaping the future - by influencing public policy and strategic direction

• Foresight is being applied to strategic activities in the public as well as the
private sector, and underlines the need to link every activity or project with
any kind of future dimension to action today in order to make a planned,
integrated future impact (“shaping the future”).

• Foresight differs from much futures research and strategic planning. It
encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components
mentioned above, which may be recast as: -
– futures (forecasting, forward thinking, perspectives),
– planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and
– networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations.

• Much futures research has been academic, but Foresight programmes
were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology
policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the normal
bounds and gather widely distributed intelligence

EA-envision
Foresight
• Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic
planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning
and futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to
innovation studies, global design, science and technology policy, and analysis
of quot;critical technologies“ and “cultural evolutionquot;.

• Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi
surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the
fact that Foresight is concerned with: -

– The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are
some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is
action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a
few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power station
construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the
planning horizon may well be half a century).

– Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not
just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often
Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way
to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirational
futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of
Foresight work, with the decision about what fuure to build being left to other
mechanisms.

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Strategic Foresight

• Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality,
coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful
organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy,
shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It
represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management
(Slaughter (1999), p.287).
• Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are
determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and
management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible
futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an
ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled
– Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will
conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired
outcomes will be fulfilled.
– Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those
futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for
achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may
be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely
clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes,
goals and objectives.


Strategic Foresight Framework EA-envision

EA-envision
Forecasting
• Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations.
Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to
estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data.

• Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in
hydrology, the terms quot;forecastquot; and quot;forecastingquot; are sometimes
reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times,
while the term quot;predictionquot; is used for more general estimates, such
as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.

• Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction.
Forecasting is used in the practice of in every day business
forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand
planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting,
embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process.

• Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series data.


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Risk Management

• Risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through
foresight and planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related
threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: -

• Risk Research – Risk Identification – Risk Prioritization – Risk Assessment –
Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation

• Risk management strategies may include: -
– transferring the risk to another party
– avoiding the risk
– reducing the negative effect of the risk
– accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk .

• In an ideal risk management scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks
with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled
first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses
are then handled in descending order

• In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall
threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with
higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - can often be misleading.

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Enterprise Risk Management Framework

EA-envision
Global Massive Change
• Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and
limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities
of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment,
ecology and geology are dominated by human manipulation: -

– Human impact is now the major factor in climate change.
– Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass
extinction event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated
– Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes.

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Sustainability

• Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be
maintained at a certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental
usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support
systems, such as the planet's climatic system, systems of agriculture,
industry, forestry, fisheries, and the systems on which they depend. In
recent years, public discourse has led to a use of quot;sustainabilityquot; in
reference to how long human ecological systems can be expected to be
usefully productive. In the past, complex human societies have died out,
sometimes as a result of their own growth-associated impacts on ecological
support systems. The implication is that modern industrial society, which
continues to grow in scale and complexity, will also collapse.
• The implied preference would be for systems to be productive indefinitely,
or be quot;sustainable.quot; For example, quot;sustainable agriculturequot; would develop
agricultural systems to last indefinitely; quot;sustainable developmentquot; can be a
development of economic systems that last indefinitely, etc. A side
discourse relates the term sustainability to longevity of natural ecosystems
and reserves (set aside for other-than-human species), but the challenging
emphasis has been on human systems and anthropogenic problems, such
as anthropogenic climate change, or the depletion of fossil fuel reserves.


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Renewable Resources
• A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a
rate comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Solar
radiation, tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are not in
danger of being consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal.
• The term renewable resource also has the implication of sustainability of handling and
absorption of waste products by the natural environment.
• Nuclear Fission supports Low Carbon Generation but carries with it problems of both
renewability and sustainability. Nuclear Fusion is both renewable and sustainable.
• Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal, fresh water, timber, and
biomass must be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the environment's capacity to
replenish them. A life cycle assessment provides a systematic evaluation of renewability.
• Petroleum, coal, natural gas, diesel, are commodities derived from fossil fuels and are
non-renewable. Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield.
• Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as wood, paper, and leather.
• Solar power is the energy derived directly from the Sun. It is the most abundant source
of energy on Earth. It is captured by photovoltaic cells, or by using sunlight to heat water.
The Sun ignited about 4.6 billion years ago and will continue for another 5 billion years.
• Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earth's surface from the Sun and the
warm core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting
the rotation of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator.
In windmills (a much older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical
machinery to do physical work, like crushing grain or pumping water.
• Hydropower, energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other
energy differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can
be used mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource.

Combined heat and power (CHP)
• •
What is CHP? Who is it suitable for?

• Combined heat and power (CHP), also • CHP can be used throughout the
known as co-generation, is the commercial, industrial and public sectors.
generation and exploitation of both Larger, tailor-made systems are particularly
heat and power (usually in the form of suited to applications where there is a high
electricity) from the same equipment heat demand, such as hospitals, leisure
set, in the same place, at the same centres, hotels and industrial sites with
time. process heating requirements (especially
chemical, brewing and paper industries).
• Not only does CHP enable the
conversion of a high proportion of • Some industrial processes which use hot
otherwise waste heat to usable heat, water or steam are suited to small scale
but it is very efficient because power is (<1MW) CHP, including the following
generated close to where it is being sectors: chemicals; textiles and leather;
used (and thus electricity transmission food and drink; rubber and plastics;
losses are minimised). The engineering; and agriculture/horticulture.
predominant fuel used for CHP
schemes is natural gas (62% in 2000). • For a site to support a successful CHP
Other fuels include oil, coal or even installation, it should typically have a heat
renewables (such as municipal and and power requirement for at least 4,500
industrial waste, sewage gases, hours/year (although it could be cost-
biogases, from anaerobic digestion, effective with fewer operating hours).
biodiesel, gasification etc and wood). Generally, the greater the annual period of
demand, then the greater the benefits…..

Combined heat and power (CHP)
• How does CHP work?

• In its simplest form a CHP
system comprises a gas
turbine, engine or steam
turbine to drive an alternator.

• The resulting electricity is
used primarily on-site. The
waste heat, in the form of
steam or hot water, is
collected and can be used to
provide heat for industrial
processes, for community
heating and for space
heating. It can also provide
cooling - using advanced
absorption cooling
technology.

• Systems vary considerable in
size, from micro turbines
(<50 kW) to many MW of
electrical output

Petroleum Reservoir Simulation and Exploitation
Petroleum Reservoir depletion may take place over periods up to and exceeding 30 years…..

• •
Reservoir Simulation Reservoir Exploitation
– The Grid System – Economic Modelling for Oil & Gas
Production
– The Well Model
– Geological Science
– Conservation Equations
– Transient Well Logging
– Geological Mapping, Log Data
and Spatial Analysis – Open Hole Logging
– Reservoir Modelling and – Production Logging
Typological Characterization – Subsurface Reservoir Geology
• Aquifers – Exploration Geophysics
• Salt Domes
– Reservoir Mapping
– Model Initialization
– Reservoir Modelling
• Prediction Runs
– Heavy Oil Technology
• History Matching
– Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery
– Exploitation Modelling
• Water flooding
• Depletion Options
– Reservoir Analysis
• Extraction Rates
– Recovery Prediction
• Recovery Extents – Injection Design
– Enhanced Recovery Techniques • Gas displacement
• Water Injection – Reservoir Analysis
– Recovery Prediction
• Gas Injection
– Injection Design

Typical Petroleum Recovery was 35% until Enhanced Recovery Techniques drove up to and over 65%…..

Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation

Visions Of The Future EA-envision

• Leading theoretical physicist and futurist Dr Michio Kaku explores the cutting edge science of
today, tomorrow, and beyond. He argues that the human race is at a tipping point in its history.
In this century, we are going to make the historic transition from the 'Age of Discovery' to the
'Age of Mastery', a period in which humans move from being passive observers of nature to its
active choreographers - where human impact dominates climate, the environment, ecology
and geology. This will give us not only unparalleled opportunities but also great responsibilities
- with the possibility of both utopian and dystopian future outcomes.

• 1. The Intelligence Revolution
Kaku explains how artificial intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles,
and how virtual worlds will become so realistic that they will rival the physical world. Robots
with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and in the ultimate stage of
mastery, we'll even be able to merge our minds with machine intelligence – man-machine.

• 2. The Biotech Revolution
Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health and longevity: DNA
screening could prevent many diseases, gene therapy could cure them and, thanks to lab-
grown organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily
available. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could be slowed or even halted.

• 3. The Quantum Revolution
The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science fact - from meta-
materials with mind-boggling properties like invisibility through limitless quantum energy and
room temperature superconductors to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even
forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re-
arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. Yet how will we ultimately
use our mastery of matter? Like Samson, will we use our strength to bring down the temple?
Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to match our technology?

TRANSHUMANISM 2.0

Transhumanism
2.0
Natasha Vita-More
Cultural Strategist

History
Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand the human
capacity for performance, supporting the use of future science and technology to
enhance human capabilities and qualities – and to overcome undesirable and
unnecessary aspects of the present human condition.

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Trans-humanism – arose out of an inspirational dream that a handful of unrelated
forward thinkers shared and came together to realize. Transhumanism, like other
cultures of society, grew into the global culture it is today. But what is the projected
or expected state of transhumanism, and what will be the defining lines that will
determine if it will or can become a powerful driving force of the future?

Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist

Transhumanism —
History
Cultural Evolution
“transhuman” is used by FM
Transhumans in LA
Transhuman Arts Statement
Breakthroughs – TransCentury
Transhuman Update airs Early 1980s
Term “Extropy” is created
Mid 1980s
Terms “Transhumanist and
“Transhumanism” are used Late 1980s
Extropy: Journal of Transhumanist
Early 1990s
Thought emerges
Extropy Institute develops Mid 1990s
Extropians email list develops
Late 1990s
Extro Conferences are held
Aleph develops transhumanist
Resources in Sweden
Transhumanist FAQ written
“Introduction to Transhumanism”
written
Transcedo develops in
Netherlands
TransVision Conference is held
De:Trans develops in Germany
WTA develops

What is the projected or expected state of transhumanism,
and what will be the defining lines that will determine if it
will or can become a powerful driving force of the future?
Sustainable Transhumanism

Probable future

Current Actions
necessary
situation

Possible future

Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist

Futures Studies

Changement est vieux comme le monde….. changement est aussi vieux que le temps.

Quantitative v. Qualitative Future Methods

Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods
Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures

• Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods
• Positivists versus Futurists – a dichotomy
• Strategists versus Scientists – research roles
• Overview of Applied Future Studies
– Key Components
– Common Research Tools
• Common Research Design Challenges
– Choices - decision making & options selection
– Common misunderstanding in the evaluation
and selection of the methods available
– Problems with method application & execution
– Errors in interpretation & communication
– Flaws in analysis & reporting


Positivists versus Futurists – design differences


• Theory Formation v. Futures Articulation
• Reductionism v. Systemic and Holistic
• Experimental v. Descriptive
• Linear Systems v. Complex and Chaotic
Systems
• Predictive v. Exploratory
• Repeatable Results v. Insights
• Hard Facts v. Soft Alternatives
• Value Neutral v. Value Driven


Strategists versus Scientists – research roles
Strategists Scientists
Positivist – articulating a single, preferred Futurist – assessing possible, probable and
vision of the future. The future will conform to alternative futures offering those conditions
preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal which best fit our strategic goals / objectives
future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. for achieving a preferred future. We select
those futures which best support our desired
• Objective v. Subjective outcomes, goals and objectives for further
and more detailed analysis and investigation.
• Observation v. Facilitation / Participation
• Knowledge Revelation v. Change Agent
• Reporting v. Performing
• Future Studies assumes that the objective of exploring multiple possible outcomes is
to help people create the futures that they desire: - active, value-focussed research


Possible Futures and Alternative Futures…..

• Firstly, assessing the probability of any
given image of the future actually occurring
must of necessity be an ongoing process:
as trends and emerging issues of change
grow, transform, plateau, and collapse over
• Alternative Possibilities
time, the probability of a possible outcome,
or possible future, may vary over time.
• Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – Hence the need for ongoing identification
and thus it is impossible to predict and monitoring of the indicators of change.
• Possible Futures emerge from the • Secondly, evaluating any given image of
interplay of current trends and the future as aligning more or less closely
emerging factors of change with the enterprise mission and vision
statement is important in assessing which
futures offer conditions that best fit strategic
• This, again, articulates an exaggerated
goals and objectives in achieving a desired
perspective to make the point that the
outcome – a preferred future (Futurism) –
interrelationship between linear and
however, that evaluation of a possible set of
non-linear systems demonstrates the
future conditions as preferable is NOT THE
case that future reality is generated by
SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a preferred
the interaction of uncertainty with the
vision of the future (Positivism).
present set of conditions and trends

Futurists versus Positivists – summary of differences
between Quantitative and Qualitative Future Methods

• •
Futurists Positivists
– Quantitative – Qualitative
– Analytic – Visionary
– Objective – Subjective
– Observation – Facilitation / Participation
– Hypothesis Formation – Futures Articulation
– Predictive – Exploratory
– Theory Construction – Outcome Anticipation
– Experimental – Descriptive
– Complex / Chaotic Systems – Linear Systems
– Repeatable Results – Insights
– Model Driven – Intuitive
– Hard Facts – Soft Alternatives
– Reporting – Performing
– Knowledge Revelation – Change Agent
– Value Neutral – Value Driven
– Reductionism – Systemic and Holistic

Quantitative v. Qualitative Futures Framework
Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27)
Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction
Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced)
Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science
Strategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk Management
Scenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-casting
Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment
Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change
Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning
Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies
Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis
Environment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping
Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research
Knowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, Facilitation
Strategic Foresight Intuition and Pre-cognition
Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies
Massive Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact
Futures Studies History and Analysis of Prediction
Alternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking
Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace / Conflict Studies
Cognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight Development
Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle
Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)
Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management
Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies
Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards
Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts
Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future

Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston

'Thinking About The Future'
Peter Bishop and Andy Hines

“Time present and time past are both perhaps contained in time future and time
future contained in time past…..” T. S. Elliott

'Thinking About The Future‘
Thinking About the Future Framework
• 1. Framing: This important first step enables organizations to define the scope and
focus of problems requiring strategic foresight. By taking time at the outset of a
project, the team analyzing a problem can clarify the objective and determine how
best to address it.
• 2. Scanning: Once the team is clear about the boundaries and scope of an activity, it
can scan the internal and external environments for relevant information and trends.
• 3. Forecasting: Most organizations, if not challenged, tend to believe the future is
going to be pretty much like the past. When the team probes the organization’s view
of the future, they usually find an array of unexamined assumptions that tend to
converge around incremental changes.
• The task, then, is to challenge this view and prod the organization to think seriously
about the possibility that things may not continue as they have—and in fact, rarely do.
Considering a range of potential futures is the only sure-fire way to develop robust
strategies that will position the organization securely for any future that may occur.
• 4. Visioning: After forecasting has laid out a range of potential futures, visioning
comes into play—generating the organization’s ideal or “preferred” future and starting
to suggest stretch goals for moving toward it.
• 5. Planning: This is the bridge between the vision and the action. Here, the team
translates what could be into strategies and tactics that will lead toward the preferred
future.
• 6. Acting: This final phase is largely about communicating results, developing action
agendas, and institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems, so the
organization can nimbly and continually respond to the changing external
environment.

executives and analysts
Thinking About the Future
• How executives and analysts can use the Thinking
About the Future Framework

– Design strategic foresight projects

– Develop robust strategies that can stand up to a wide range of
possible, plausible, probable and preferred future outcomes

– Find how-to answers to specific tasks

– Provide a refresher for experienced practitioners

– Adopt guidelines for excellence as an organization

trainers and educators
Thinking About the Future

• How trainers and educators can use the Thinking
About the Future Framework

– Examine the important tenets of futurist theory and research

– Understand how futurist thinking can powerfully strengthen an
organization’s strategic thinking and acting on a day-to-day basis

– Obtain a strong intellectual foundation preparing for careers in
corporate foresight, strategy, planning or management consulting

– Interact with analysts and role play strategic futures in order to
challenge, influence, modify or corroborate their own assumptions


The Future is….. now!

Shaping the Future…..
The future is assumed to be “creatable” which implies that we all
have choices to make which influence future outcomes.

The future is assumed to be “achievable” which implies that we need
the appropriate resources and capabilities to deliver the future vision.

The future is assumed to be “predictable” which implies that we have
to be clear about those factors that we can understand, model, influence
and predict – and those factors with unseen or hidden influences.

The future is assumed to be “viewable” which implies that we need
foresight and vision to look into the future.

Finally, just as the past has influenced the present - the past is the
key to the future. This implies that we need a historic perspective in
order to be able to analyse and extrapolate future patterns and trends.

“Time present and time past are both perhaps contained in time future
and time future contained in time past…..” T. S. Elliott

Stakeholder Communities…..

Foresight Stakeholders

Regulators and Legislators
Sponsors and Investors
Entrepreneurs and Innovators
Domain Specialists
Subject Matter Experts
Professional Practitioners
Consultants and Advisors
Planners and Strategists
Architects and Designers
Project Managers and Developers
Everyone…..


Plan Ahead
Enterprises need to take on people and resources for foresight projects : -
Business Transformation
Technology & Project Portfolio Management
Human Resources Management
We need a strategic plan to realize the vision of the future state: -
Vision and Mission Statements
Strategies and Outcomes
Goals and Objectives
Strategic Drivers, Requirements and Constraints: -
We need a set of strategic priorities to commit the vision into action
Business Transformation and Change Programmes
Project Portfolio Management
Technology Enablers and “Quick Wins”
We need Enterprise Performance Management to monitor our efforts: -
Critical Success Factors to indicate our successes
Key Performance Indicators to check our performance
Balanced Scorecard to demonstrate our achievement


How Can We Think Ahead?

Some Foresight Techniques…..
Trend Analysis: – the systematic collection of data representing trends for everything that
is happening in the world around us today.
Precursor analysis: – analysis of events as they unfold and develop over time -
emergence, growth, transformation, plateau, maturity and collapse - from the past, through the
present and on into the future.
Scenario analysis: – time series of possible and plausible scenarios representing probable
trends or events that could occur in the future.
Game theory: – a branch of applied mathematics also used in the arts and social sciences
(political science, philosophy and economics), in biology and evolution, computer modelliing &
cybernetics and in military science. Also, see the related subject - Lanchester theory.
Strategic Foresight – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are described and defined via
Strategic Envisioning and the future is determined by design, planning and management - so
that the future becomes realistic, attainable and achievable. Thus the future will conform to our
preferred options - and our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled
Massive Global Change: – Massive Global Change is an evaluation of global capacities
and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world
future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are massively dominated
by human intervention and manipulation.


Five ways in which we can envision the future…..
Strategic – The future is creatable, planned & governed by the aspirations, actions,
goals and beliefs of key individuals, organizations and institutions shaping the future.

Assumptive – The probable future will reflect our current designs and assumptions -
thus by replication and continuation of the past, realising our predicted future state.

Opportunistic – The future world state will emerge from a series of random and
unpredictable actions and events under conditions of severe competition for scarce
resources - so that future outcomes tend to favour the fittest and the most brave , the
most competitive, the best prepared - and the most versatile, flexible and adaptive.

Visionary – Future outcomes, goals and objectives may be envisioned as: -
Positivist – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will
conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired
outcomes will be fulfilled. Future strategy is designed, planned and managed.
Futurist – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures offering those
conditions which best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving our
preferred future. Selecting those futures which best support our desired vision,
outcomes, goals and objectives for further more detailed analysis / investigation.

Surprising – The future will be shaped by an inexorable amalgam of complex trends,
random actions, erratic responses and unpredictable events, thus the future is volatile
and enigmatic - and it will be amazing…..

Five ways that we can predict the future…..

Goal Analysis – The future will be governed by the beliefs, objectives, goals and
orchestrated actions of various influential, and coordinated key individuals, groups,
organizations and institutions - thus can be predicted by the analysis of such groups.

Extrapolation and Pattern Analysis – The past is the key to the future – the
future will develop as a logical extension and extrapolation of historic events and
trends. As the future unfolds it is an extension of the past – so represents a
replication and continuation of historic events, patterns, cycles and trends.

Adaptation – The future will evolve from a series of events and actions that, as
they emerge, unfold and develop - are essentially responses to competitive pressure,
massive global change and population growth with increasing scarcity of resources.

Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined
via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so
the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may comply with preferred
options - and thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes may be fulfilled.

Intuition – The future may be implied via an intuitive assimilation and cognitive
filtering of inexorable trends, random and chaotic actions and unpredictable events –
however, the future is still largely volatile, indeterminate, uncertain and enigmatic.

EA-envision
Goal Analysts
• Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the
future will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various
individuals, organizations, and institutions.

• The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these
entities. Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and
implied goals of various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating
the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by
evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will become.
“Il ne faut jamais sortie la bateau”



Goal Analysis Techniques
Impact Analysis : – provides a simple, formal method for taking
into account the fact that, in a complex society such as ours, trends,
events, and decisions often have consequences that are neither
intended nor foreseen.
Content Analysis : – is founded on the concept that the relative
importance of social, political, commercial and economic issues are
reflected by the amount of media attention the issue receives .
Stakeholders' Analysis : – is a formal method for taking account
of the influence that various individuals and institutions can have on
the way the future develops. It explicitly identifies those people and
organizations .
Patent Analysis – is based on the presumption that increased
interest in new technologies, together with conviction of their
practicality and appeal, will be reflected in increased R&D activity


Goal Analysts
• Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will
be determined by the beliefs and actions of various individuals, organizations, and
institutions.

• The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities. Thus,
the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various
decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect
future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will
become.

• Impact Analysis provides a simple, formal method for taking into account the fact that, in
a complex society such as ours, trends, events, and decisions often have consequences
that are neither intended nor foreseen. The technique combines the use of left brain and
right brain thinking to project the secondary, tertiary, and higher order impacts and
implications of such occurrences. Results are qualitative in nature, and the technique is
often used to analyze potential consequences of projected technical advances or to
determine areas in which forecasting efforts could best be directed.

• Content Analysis is founded on the concept that the relative importance of social,
political, commercial and economic issues are reflected by the amount of media attention
the issue receives. Thus, by measuring, over time, changes in such factors as column-
inches in newspapers, time allocated on television, and, more recently, number of items
on the Internet, forecasters can project the direction, nature, and rate of change. In the
technical arena, this technique can, to some degree, be used to project advances in new
technologies, as well as growing market attraction. The results of use of this technique
are often displayed in a quantitative format. However, they are typically used only for
qualitative analysis.

Goal Analysts
• Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future
will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various key individuals,
organizations, and institutions.

• The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities.
Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of
various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each
can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of
their actions will become.

• Stakeholders' Analysis is a formal method for taking account of the influence that
various individuals and institutions can have on the way the future develops. It
explicitly identifies those people and organizations, internal and external, that have a
quot;stakequot; in particular decisions, projects, or programs; analyzes the importance that
each individual or group assign to these issues; and the relative influence that they
may have on developments. The results from this technique are normally semi-
quantitative. The technique is often used to test the validity of forecasts that might be
impacted by unexpected opposition or support.

• Patent Analysis is based on the presumption that increased interest in new
technologies, together with conviction of their practicality and appeal, will be reflected
in increased R&D activity, and that this, in turn, will be reflected by increased patent
activity. Thus, it is presumed that one can both identify new technology opportunities
and assess the state of development of given technologies by analyzing the pattern
of patent application in appropriate fields. Results from the application are often
presented in quantified terms; however, their use in decision-making is normally
based on a qualitative evaluation.

Extrapolators EA-envision

• Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of
the past

• Extrapolators believe that the future will represent a logical extension of
the past. Large scale, inexorable forces will drive the future in a continuous,
reasonably predictable manner, and one can, therefore, best forecast the
future by identifying past trends and extrapolating them in a reasoned and
logical manner.

• Massive Global Change – Massive Global Change is an evaluation of
global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and
dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate,
the environment and geology are dominated by human manipulation: -

– Human impact is now the major factor in climate change.
– Species Extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction
event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated
– Man now moves more rock and earth than geological processes.



Extrapolation Techniques
Technology Trend Analysis – is based on the observation that
advances in technologies tend to follow an exponential improvement
process
Fisher-Pry Analysis – is a mathematical technique used to
project the rate of market adoption of superior new technologies
Gompertz Analysis – is very similar in concept to Fisher-Pry
Analysis, except that it better models adoptions that are driven by the
desirability, attractiveness and superiority of the new technology
Growth Limit Analysis – utilizes a mathematical formulation
known as the Pearl Curve to project the pattern in which maturing
technologies will approach development limits
Learning Curve techniques – are based on the fact that, as
more and more items of a given type are produced, the price of
production tends to decrease at a predictable rate


Extrapolators
• Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past

• Extrapolators believe that the future will represent a logical extension of the past. Large
scale, inexorable forces will drive the future in a continuous, reasonably predictable
manner, and one can, therefore, best forecast the future by identifying past trends and
extrapolating them in a reasoned, logical manner.

• Technology Trend Analysis is based on the observation that advances in
technologies tend to follow an exponential improvement process. The technique uses
early improvement data to establish the rate of progress and extrapolates that rate to
project the level of progress at various times in the future. Results produced by this
technique are typically highly quantitative. In practice, this technique is typically used to
forecast developments such as the speed of operation, level of performance, cost
reduction, improved quality, and operating efficiency.

• Fisher-Pry Analysis is a mathematical technique used to project the rate of market
adoption of technically superior new technologies and, when appropriate, to project the
loss of market share by old technologies. The technique is based on the fact that the
adoption of such new technologies normally follows a pattern known by
mathematicians as the quot;Logistic Curve.quot; This adoption pattern is defined by two
parameters. One of these parameters determines the time at which adoption begins,
and the other determines the rate at which adoption will occur. These parameters can
be determined from early adoption data, and the resulting pattern can be used to
project the time at which market takeover will reach any given level. Results produced
by this technique are highly quantitative. The technique is used to make forecasts such
as how the installed base of telecommunications equipment will change over time, how
rapidly a new chemical production process will be adopted, and the rate at which digital
measuring devices will replace analog devices in petroleum refineries, etc.

Extrapolators
• Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past

• Gompertz Analysis is very similar in concept to Fisher-Pry Analysis, except that it
better models adoptions that are driven by the technical superiority of the new
technology. However, customers do not suffer any significant penalty for not adopting
the new technology at any given time. Like Fisher-Pry analysis, Gompertz analysis
projects adoption by use of a two parameter mathematical model. In similar manner,
early adoption is used to determine these parameters and the resulting adoption
curve. Results are highly quantitative, and the technique is often used to project
adoption of consumer products such as high-definition television, camcorders, new
automobile features, etc.

• Growth Limit Analysis utilizes a mathematical formulation known as the Pearl
Curve to project the pattern in which maturing technologies will approach
development limits. This can often be useful to organizations in analyzing maturing
technologies, in setting feasible research goals, and in determining the utility of
additional development spending. The technique can also be useful in determining if
new technical approaches can be used to overcome apparent technical limits.

• Learning Curve techniques are based on the fact that, as more and more items of a
given type are produced, the price of production tends to decrease at a predictable
rate. For example, each doubling of the total number of a particular items produced
might result in a cost reduction of 15%. In some cases, key technical parameters may
improve in a similar pattern. The learning curve phenomenon is reflected as a straight
line on log-log graph paper which makes projection relatively simple. Results from the
use of this are highly quantitative. The technique can be used for setting price and
technical performance targets for developing technologies, particularly in the middle
stages of their development.

Pattern Analysts EA-envision

• Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events

• Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past
events. Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic
human drives, will cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable
cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by
identifying and analyzing analogous situations from the past and relating
them to probable futures.
L’arbour du vie



Pattern Analysis Techniques
Analogy Analysis – is based on the observation that the patterns
of technical development and market capture for new technologies
are often similar to those for like technologies in the past
Precursor Trend Analysis – takes advantage of the fact that,
often, the development of one technology lags by a constant period
the development of another related one.
Morphological Matrices – provide a formal method for
uncovering new product and process possibilities – functionality,
desirability, attractiveness and superiority of the new technology
Feedback Models – provide a means for accounting for the
interactions that will connect technical, economic, market, societal,
and economic factors as the future unfolds.


Pattern Analysts

• Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events.
Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will
cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable
patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing
analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures.

• Analogy Analysis is based on the observation that the patterns of technical
development and market capture for new technologies are often similar to those for
like technologies in the past. In applying this technique, forecasters identify
appropriate analogies and analyze similarities and differences. Normally, it is
desirable to identify more than one applicable example in order to minimize the
probability of selecting false or inappropriate analogies. The results from application
of this technique are typically semi-quantitative in nature, and are often presented as
a range of possibilities rather than a single projection.

• Precursor Trend Analysis takes advantage of the fact that, often, the development
of one technology lags by a constant period the development of another related one.
For example, the first application of technical advances in passenger cars typically
occurs approximately four years after their application in race cars. Similarly, the
application of new technologies in commercial products tend to follow laboratory
demonstration by a relatively constant period. One can, thus, project the status of the
lag technology at some future date by observing the status of the lead technology
today. This technique also allows the extension of lag technology forecasts by
building on forecasts of lead technologies. Results from using this technique are
highly quantitative.

Pattern Analysts

• Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events.
Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will
cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable
patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing
analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures.

• Morphological Matrices provide a formal method for uncovering new product and
process possibilities. In applying this technique, users first determine the essential
functions of the product or process. Next, they list the different means by which each
of these functions could be satisfied. Finally, they use the matrix to identify new,
reasonable combinations of these means that could result in practical new products
or processes. Results of the application of this technique are qualitative in nature.
The technique can be used to identify non-obvious new opportunities for a company.
This technique can also be used to identify products and processes that competitors
might be developing or considering.

• Feedback Models provide a means for accounting for the interactions that will
connect technical, economic, market, societal, and economic factors as the future
unfolds. In using this technique computer models are developed that mathematically
specify the relationships between each of the relevant factors. For example,
advances in technology may result in improved products that may result in increased
sales that may provide more funds for further advance in technology. The results of
this technique are highly quantitative, but are often used to examine qualitative
consequences of trends, events, or decisions. The technique is most commonly used
in the formulation of high level strategies or policy.

EA-envision
Evolutionists
Evolutionists - the future will evolve from a sequence of events and
actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random.

Evolution – The future world state will result from a series of events and actions
that, as they emerge, unfold and develop, are essentially adaptive responses to
competitive pressure - massive global change and population growth combined
with deteriorating climate, environment and ecology and depletion of resources.

Adaptive – The future will emerge from a sequence of random, unpredictable
actions and events under conditions of severe competition for scarce resources -
so that future outcomes tend to favour those who are the fittest and the most
brave, the best prepared, the most competitive - the most flexible and adaptable.

Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future)
believe that the future will result from a series of events and actions that are
essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can
best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of possible trends and
events, by carefully monitoring developments in technical, social and political
environments, and by maintaining a high degree of flexibility in planning process.



Evolutionist Techniques
Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking - techniques are founded on the
observation that, for most new technologies, a finite, often considerable, amount of
time is required to bridge the gap between conception and commercialization.
Scanning seeks to identify any trend or event that might impact upon the
organization and is, therefore, by design, essentially diffuse and unfocussed.
Monitoring is designed to follow identified trends in specific, prioritised
areas and is, thus, more focused than scanning.
Tracking is designed to carefully follow developments in a limited area and
is, consequently, highly focused and targeted.
. Alternate Scenarios – this technique provides a structured method for linking and
integrating a number of individual forecasts into a series of comprehensive, feasible
narratives about how the future might develop and unfold.
Monte Carlo Simulation Models - are mathematical models that take explicit
account of the fact that projections of future trends and events are, fundamentally,
probabilistic in nature. Using this technique, all of the dependant steps involved in
the forecasting of a time-sequent commodity demand, supply and traded value curve,
or the stages in the development, launch and market take-up of a new technology,
are identified and their inter-relationships specified in an iterative computer model.

Evolutionists
• Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially
unpredictable and, to a large extent, random.

• Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future
will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large
extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of
possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in technology, socio-economic
and political environments - and maintaining a high degree of flexibility in the planning process.

• Scanning, Monitoring, and Tracking techniques are founded on the observation that, for most
new technologies, a finite, often considerable, amount of time is required to bridge the gap
between conception and commercialization. Thus, if one is alert, he or she can discern changes in
technology, market, and other business factors in time to take maximum advantage of these
changes. All three techniques are employed to identify and evaluate developments that might
materially impact the organization's operations and strategies. Although the three techniques are
similar in many respects, they differ in purpose, methodology, and degree of focus.

– Scanning seeks to identify any trend or event that might impact the organization and is,
therefore, by design, essentially unfocussed.
– Monitoring is designed to follow general trends in specified areas and is, thus, more focused
than scanning.
– Tracking is designed to carefully follow developments in a limited area and is, consequently,
highly focused
– Racking and Stacking is designed to carefully analyse developments and group together
those developments with similar characteristics, profiles or outcomes.
– Results from each of these techniques can vary between highly quantitative to basically
qualitative. However, in general terms, results are less quantitative in scanning activities and
more quantitative in tracking activities.


Evolutionists
• Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially
unpredictable and, to a large extent, random.

• Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future
will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large
extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of
possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in the technical and social
environments, and by maintaining a high degree of flexibility in the planning process.

• The Alternate Scenarios technique provides a structured method for integrating a number of
individual forecasts into a series of comprehensive, feasible narratives about how the future might
develop. It provides a vehicle for combining many forecasts in a format that allows decision-
makers to effectively relate the implications of the combination of all forecasts. The results from
this technique can range from highly quantitative to purely qualitative depending on the objectives
of the effort, its organization, and purposes to which it will be put. This technique is typically used
to assist executives in critical decision-making. Although a single scenario can be used for making
decisions, the use of a series of alternate scenarios allows executives to take account of the fact
that the future can never be projected with certainty, and to determine how appropriate flexibility
can be built into plans.

• Monte Carlo Models are computer models that take explicit account of the fact that all projections
of future trends and events are, fundamentally, probabilistic in nature. In this technique, all of the
steps involved in the development of a new technology are identified, and their inter-relationships
specified in a mathematical model. Numerical values are assigned to the probability of each event
occurring in various different ways and to the length of time it will take each event to occur. The
model is then run a large number of times to determine the probability of various overall
outcomes. The results of the technique are highly quantitative, and the technique can be used to
project technology development times and patterns, to allocate resources, and to track the
development of emerging technologies.



Strategic Foresight Techniques
Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via
Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future
becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options -
and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled.
Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to
our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled.
Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures
offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and
desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated
outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our
desired future outcomes, goals and objectives.
Weak Signals – a subliminal pattern, idea or trend which acts as an indicator that may
predicate, influence, impact or affect the environment, how we do business, what business we
do, and the environment in which we will work, at some time in the future.

Wild Cards – any sudden, major or unforeseen change in either the military, political,
social, economic or environmental perspective which threatens either a catastrophic reversal
or “Black Swan” event, loss of an important asset or facility – or the presentation of a new,
unexpected or significant advantage, gain or opportunity.

Strategic Foresight
• Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via
Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so the future
becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options
- and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled.

• Strategic Foresight may be executed at many different levels, including: -

– Planned and Managed Futures –”Take hold of your future - or the future will take hold of you…..”
(Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005)
– Pragmatic Foresight - quot;Carrying out tomorrows' business betterquot; (from Hamel & Prahalad, 2004);
– Progressive Foresight - quot;Going beyond conventional thinking and practices and reformulating
processes, products, and services using quite different and novel assumptionsquot;;
– Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional
forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect
adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and
services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter
(1999), p.287).
– Transhumanist Foresight - quot;Seeks to understand the social aspects of the next civilisation -
which transcends the current human condition, breaking out from the prevailing hegemony of geo-
political interests and globalizationquot; (after Slaughter, 2004 and Natasha Vita-Moore).

• Positivist – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to
preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled.

• Futurist – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – those offering conditions
that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred future. Selecting
those futures for analysis which best support our desired outcomes, goals, objectives.

Enterprise Architecture Future Landscape Envisioning

Enterprise Architecture Future Landscape Envisioning

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