John J. Cullen Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3H 4J1

1. Science, policy and large-scale fertilization of the ocean for carbon offsets IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium Earth System Science and Society Stockholm – 17 September 2007 John J. Cullen Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3H 4J1 [email_address]

2. 1988 The “Iron Hypothesis” gains prominence Nature 331 p341-343 1988

3. “ give me half a tanker of iron, and I will give you the next ice age” … John Martin

4. 1990 Report is “released” Plenty of publicity

5. February 1991 Scientists tackle the issue head-on

7. 1993-2006+ Research has been successful

8. Results reported in the scientific literature … virtually inaccessible to the general public

9. Relevant research routinely sensationalized by the media ?

11. Promotional materials distributed on the web Farming the Ocean by Michael Markels, Jr., Ocean Farming, Inc., USA Ocean farming is the modification of the ocean surface by the addition of nutrients to greatly enhance the productivity of the resource. When applied to large areas of the barren tropical seas, ocean farming can increase the phyto plankton, the base of the food chain, bringing the productivity up to the level that occurs naturally off of the coast of Peru. This can result in an increase in fish catch by a factor of 400 or more. A 53,000 square mile ocean area might see the fish catch go to 50 million tons per year. The carbon dioxide absorbed initially could exceed the production by the United States from the burning of fossil fuels. While the concept of farming is well accepted on land, the extension to the ocean is new. It requires the investment in the resource to increase productivity so the "commons" approach, which has been the tradition in the ocean fisheries, does not suffice. A measure of private property rights are needed, at least within the national exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the host states. The response of much of the oceanographic community has been negative, but after careful study some key oceanographers have endorsed the validity of the project.

12. Recurring theme: Unrecognized Potential Side Effects Successful fertilization must change water transparency Tomascik et al. 1993

13. Another idea Fertilization of Ocean Waters with Nitrogen will Provide Food and Sequester Carbon http://www.oceannourishment.com

14. Mississippi ‘Dead Zone’ Low oxygen water… has spread across nearly 5,800 square miles of the Gulf of Mexico Nutrient input the cause Plankton Biomass oxygen concentration (red and orange very low) Chisholm slide

15. Both “High-Nutrient, Low-Chlorophyll” and Open-Ocean Blue Waters were Targets Stimulation of Nitrogen Fixation Transformation of Food Webs As Presented by John Cullen, PICES IX, Hakodate, 24 October 2000

16. Objections were raised

17. A range of views Still virtually inaccessible to the general public

19. Promotions continued

20. Others withdrew from the spotlight

21. 2007 Major program of iron fertilization announced

22. NGOs raise concerns

23. After 20 years, ocean fertilization is gaining recognition in ocean policy

24. Basically, a call for an environmental impact assessment

25. … and markets will require stringent verification An example

27. Key Concept: Project Boundary “ the project boundary shall encompass all anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) under the control of the project participants that are significant and reasonably attributable to the project activity.”

28. What is the Project? 25 Gt(C) over 50 years

29. If ocean fertilization is to significantly influence atmospheric carbon dioxide, the project boundary is the whole ocean.

31. Arguably it cannot be done with acceptable accuracy

32. We have a basis for rational discussion

33. Thank you