May housing statistics for southwest California plus 2010 forecast by CAR CEO Joel Singer

1. 2009-2010 Monthly Unit Sales
Southwest California
250
200
150
100
50
0
3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake

2. 2009-2010 Median Price
Southwest California
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake

3. May Demand Chart
600 5
3
7
500
4
1
3
5 3
8
3 6
400
8
3
0
2
5
7 2
300 1 5
1 2
1 1
9 1
3
4 7
200 1 9 1
4 3
0 1
2 0
7 3 7 7
7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6
100 6 5 6 9 5
3 7 7 8 4 7 8 0 9 5
5 2 6
2 0 2 2 2 2 7 2
1
8 . . . . . .
9
8 3 3 6 4 7
0
On Market (Supply) Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market % Selling Months Supply
Murrieta Temecula Lake Elsininore Menifee Canyon Lake Wildomar
Data courtesy of MRMLS

4. Market by Activity & Sales Type
May Market Activity by Sales Type
%
Active Closed Failed In Escrow Activity
Bank Owned 20% 42% 7% 31% 27%
Short Sales 47% 32% 67% 51% 47%
Standard Sales 33% 26% 26% 18% 26%
Other 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Data courtesy of StatsforAgents.com

5. 2010 Midyear Update Luncheon:
“Looking Back to Look Forward”
SHOWCASE LUNCHEON
June 10, 2010
Joel Singer
Executive Vice President
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

6. Where We’ve Been: A Look Back at California Housing
Cycles
• Familiar Patterns – Different Causations
• Prices are no longer sticky going down
• Real cost of housing does matter
• Record sales may not mean market
sustainability
• California Housing has (always) shown
resiliency

7. Overview: 3 Recent Housing Cycles
California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price
UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $
Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price
700,000
600,000 -44%
500,000
-61% -25%
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

8. California vs. U.S. Median Prices
1970-2009
$600,000
California
$500,000 US
CA Price Trend
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

9. Housing Affordability Index
California Vs. U.S. – 1984-2009
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY, ANNUAL RATE
70%
US - CA CA US
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Traditional Housing Affordability Index

10. Mortgage Financing: Longer-term Trends and
Realities
• Shift from Dedicated Housing Lenders
• Refi’s Add Risk/Constrict Capital
• Gov’t Dependency is at All time Highs
• Real Issue: Whither the GSE’s?

11. US Home Mortgage Debt Growth %
1972 to 2009
%
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board

12. US Home Mortgage Debt Outstanding
1-4 Residences 1949 to 2009
In Millions
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Q1-1970
Q1-1972
Q1-1974
Q1-1976
Q1-1978
Q1-1980
Q1-1982
Q1-1984
Q1-1986
Q1-1988
Q1-1990
Q1-1992
Q1-1994
Q1-1996
Q1-1998
Q1-2000
Q1-2002
Q1-2004
Q1-2006
Q1-2008
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board

13. CA Real Estate 1-4 Residential Loans
Commercial Banking Institutions vs. Savings Institutions
In Millions
Commercial Banks S&Ls
400,000
380,000
360,000
340,000
320,000
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
SOURCE: FDIC

14. Refinance vs. Purchase Share
REFINANCE/PURCHASE SHARE 30- YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE
100% Refinance Share (%) Purchase Share (%) 12%
Fixed Rate Mortgage
90%
10%
80%
70%
8%
60%
50% 6%
40%
4%
30%
20%
2%
10%
0% 0%
Q1/90
Q1/91
Q1/92
Q1/93
Q1/94
Q1/95
Q1/96
Q1/97
Q1/98
Q1/99
Q1/00
Q1/01
Q1/02
Q1/03
Q1/04
Q1/05
Q1/06
Q1/07
Q1/08
Q1/09
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America

15. Cash Out Refinances Drove Subprime & Alt-A Refis
Mar-10 Apr-09 Apr-08
Sub Prime Loans Outstanding 289,278 363,274 485,222
% Owner Occupied 94% 94% 94%
% Cash Out Refi (Sub Prime Owner Occ) 65% 61% 55%
Alt A Loans Outstanding 554,587 643,511 722,049
% Owner Occupied 80% 80% 81%
% Cash Out Refi (Alt-A Owner Occ) 48% 47% 45%
Source: FirstAmerican CoreLogic, LoanPerformance Data, U.S. Census Bureau, and
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

16. By 2005 53.5% of New CA Loans were “Jumbos”
Above the Maximum Conforming Loan Limit
(New First Mortgage)
Conforming Loans Jumbo Loans Loan Limit
100% 4% $800,000
$700,000
80%
$600,000
60% $500,000
96% $400,000
40% $300,000
$200,000
20%
$100,000
0% $0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey

17. Sub-Prime Share Below 10% Until 2004
% of Dollar Volume
Sub Prime Alt-A HEL
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.

18. Down-payments also reflect affordability
By 2006 40% of 1st timers put zero down
All Hom buyers First-Tim e Buyers
Repeat Buyers
50%
40%
30%
20%
5.0%
10% 3.7%
2.8%
0%
1991 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey

19. 2nd Mortgages Also Track Affordability Challenge
Over 30% in 1981-82 and 2005-07
% 2nd Mtgs Purchases Made with Second Mortgage CA-HAI
60% Housing Affordability Index (HAI) 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey, C.A.R. Housing Affordability Index

20. Share of ARM’s Rises As Affordability
Deteriorates: Fuels demand for housing
100% FRM ARM Other
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey

21. US Residential Secondary Mortgage Market
Active Pool Balances
Aggregate Securitized Jumbo Loans
In $ Billions
Aggregate Securitized Subprime Loans
$1,000 Aggregate Securitized Alt-A Loans
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
SOURCE: Moody’s Analytics

22. The Crash
Decimated Secondary
.
markets
• Decimated secondary markets
Historically
unprecedented price
• Historically unprecedented price
declines
declines
Equally unprecedented
• Equally unprecedented
delinquencies,
delinquencies, foreclosures
foreclosures

23. Four Year Housing Boom 2002 – 2005
UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX
700,000 Housing Boom 160
600,000 140
120
500,000
100
400,000
80
300,000
60
200,000
40
100,000 20
0 0
Jan-00
Apr-00
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-00
Oct-00
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Oct-09
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

24. Unprecedented Impact on Statewide Median Price
Down 59% in Two Years
$700,000 P: May-07
$594,530
$600,000
$500,000 T: Feb-09
$245,230
-59% from
$400,000
peak
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

25. CA Peak to Trough Price Decline: -59%
Sacramento Region First to Peak Aug 2005
Peak Trough Trough % Chg
Region Peak Price
Month Month Price From Peak
Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 Feb-09 $241,130 -69.8%
High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 May-09 $106,210 -68.3%
Riverside/San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 Apr-09 $156,840 -62.2%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 Apr-09 $150,140 -61.8%
CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 Feb-09 $245,170 -58.8%
Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 Apr-09 $167,340 -57.6%
San Francisco Bay Area May-07 $853,910 Feb-09 $399,040 -53.3%
Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 Feb-09 $310,950 -51.8%
Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 Mar-09 $295,100 -51.2%
Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 Feb-09 $359,630 -49.4%
Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 Feb-09 $445,000 -48.8%
San Diego May-06 $622,380 Mar-09 $326,830 -47.5%
San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 Apr-09 $338,160 -45.5%
Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 Jan-09 $423,100 -43.4%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

26. Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates Rose Rapidly
California: Q1-2010, NSA
Delinquency Rate - CA Delinquency Rate - L/T Avg
12%
Foreclosure Rate - CA Foreclosure Rate L/T Avg
10%
8%
6% Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.2%
4%
Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.1%
2%
0%
Q1-1979
Q2-1980
Q3-1981
Q4-1982
Q1-1984
Q2-1985
Q3-1986
Q4-1987
Q1-1989
Q2-1990
Q3-1991
Q4-1992
Q1-1994
Q2-1995
Q3-1996
Q4-1997
Q1-1999
Q2-2000
Q3-2001
Q4-2002
Q1-2004
Q2-2005
Q3-2006
Q4-2007
Q1-2009
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association

27. NODs & Trustees Deeds Escalated
2005 - present
No. of Defaults or TDs Notices of Default Trustee's Deeds
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Oct-09
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com, C.A.R.

28. Lower-priced Sales Dominate the Market
October 2004 – present
Under 500 500 to 999 1 Mil +
90%
74.0%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 19.3%
20%
6.5%
10%
0%
2004.10
2005.01
2005.04
2005.07
2005.10
2006.01
2006.04
2006.07
2006.10
2007.01
2007.04
2007.07
2007.10
2008.01
2008.04
2008.07
2008.10
2009.01
2009.04
2009.07
2009.10
2010.01
2010.04
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.

29. Net Cash To Sellers Peaked 2004 – 2007
Now Back to Mid-90’s
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000 $50,000
$40,000 Median
$20,000
$0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to
the seller as a result of this sale?
Source: CAR Annual Housing Market Survey

30. 1/3 of Sellers with Loss in 2009, Up Significantly
from Mid-2000s
35%
32.9%
30%
25%
20%
Long Run Average = 9.3%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to
the seller as a result of this sale?
Source: CAR Annual Housing Market Survey

31. Where We are Today
We are past the bottom in almost all sectors
Distressed sales remain (and will for some time)
Price appreciation differentials
Areas of weakness

32. Distressed Inventories Lean
Price Range (Thousand) Apr-10 Mar-10 Apr-09
$1,000K+ 9.7 10.9 18.7
$750-1000K 6.4 6.2 10.3
$500-750K 5.4 5.1 5.8
$300-500K 4.5 4.2 4.1
$0-300K 3.3 3.2 3.0
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

33. Properties Under Contract in CA
May 2010: 21,432 Units, Down 16.9% MTM, Up 2.0 YTY
UNITS
Based on Selected MLSs in California
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Sep-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Mar-07
May-07
Mar-08
May-08
Mar-09
May-09
Mar-10
May-10
SOURCE: Clarus MarketMetrics, compiled by C.A.R. Preliminary Data for 5/2010

34. Pendings down MTM but up YTY
(MLS data)
MTM % YTY %
County/Region May-10
Change Change
LA, Orange, Riverside, & San Bernardino 13,526 -8.7% 16.0%
Palm Spring, Palm Desert 871 -14.1% 19.8%
San Diego 1,961 -19.2% -2.6%
San Luis Obispo 394 -12.1% 5.9%
Central Contra Costa, Alameda 2,365 -18.3% 1.5%
Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano, and
Sonoma 1,546 -13.6% 14.8%
Monterey, San Benito,
San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz 2,843 -3.2% 16.2%
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics for various MLSs, compiled by C.A.R.

35. CA Trough to Current Price
All Regions up from Bottom
Trough Trough Apr-10 % Chg From
Region
Month Price Median Trough
San Francisco Bay Area Feb-09 $399,040 $583,280 46.2%
Santa Clara Feb-09 $445,000 $628,000 41.1%
Monterey Region Feb-09 $241,130 $326,360 35.3%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Apr-09 $150,140 $197,040 31.2%
CALIFORNIA Feb-09 $245,170 $306,230 24.9%
Ventura Feb-09 $359,630 $442,610 23.1%
High Desert May-09 $106,210 $127,300 19.9%
San Diego Mar-09 $326,830 $388,480 18.9%
Riverside/San Bernardino Apr-09 $156,840 $183,970 17.3%
Orange County Jan-09 $423,100 $491,120 16.1%
San Luis Obispo Apr-09 $338,160 $390,240 15.4%
Los Angeles Mar-09 $295,100 $338,970 14.9%
Northern Wine Country Feb-09 $310,950 $355,000 14.2%
Sacramento Apr-09 $167,340 $188,100 12.4%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

36. Serious Delinquency Rates Are Leveling Off
Fannie Mae: Conventional Single Family
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Aug-09
Nov-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
May-09
Mar-09
Mar-10
SOURCE: Fannie Mae Monthly Volume Summary

37. REO Share of Total Sales is Declining
REO Sales to Total Sales Ratio
County/Region Apr-09 Mar-10 Apr-10
Kern NA 54.1% 50.3%
Los Angeles 50.5% 26.8% 26.1%
Orange 36.5% 16.9% 17.0%
Riverside/San Bernardino 78.8% 48.1% 40.5%
Sacramento NA 39.6% 38.7%
San Diego NA 24.1% 20.7%
San Luis Obispo 37.2% 28.1% 27.1%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

38. Short Sales are on Upward Trend
Short Sales to Total Sales Ratio
County/Region Apr-09 Mar-10 Apr-10
Kern NA 17.5% 18.4%
Los Angeles 14.5% 22.5% 22.9%
Orange 19.0% 23.6% 23.2%
Riverside/San Bernardino 8.8% 23.3% 22.5%
Sacramento NA 24.7% 23.6%
San Diego NA 6.0% 7.8%
San Luis Obispo 10.4% 17.1% 11.8%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

39. California Foreclosure Filings Down
May 2010: 21,883 NODs • 26,123 NTSs
Notice of Trustee Sale - Counts Notice of Defaults - Counts
65,000
60,000 6 Month Average:
55,000
50,000 NODs: 29,623
45,000
NTSs: 28,218
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Aug-07
Nov-07
Aug-08
Nov-08
Aug-09
Nov-09
Jan-07
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Jul-07
Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Jun-09
Jul-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Jul-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

40. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
REO: 13,709
Aug-07
SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
Sep-07
3rd Party: 3,741
Oct-07
6 Month Average:
Cancelled: 15,553
REOs
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Sold to 3rd Party
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Cancellations
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Cancellations
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10: 13,719 REOs • 4,027 Sold to 3rd Party • 17,262 Cancelled
May-10

41. Historic Increase in Affordability
California
11
10
Median Price to Median HH Income Ratio
10
9
8
Average Over Years Shown: 6:1 Ratio
7
6 6
6
5 4.5
4
4
3
2
1
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

42. Proportion of First-Time Homebuyers
California
60%
% First-Tim e Hom e Buyers Long Run Average
47.0%
50%
38.6%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey

43. Investors Share of Current Market
-Average Overall Share of Buying Side of Transactions-
Please tell us what share of your real estate business on the
buying side of the transaction is devoted to
50.00%
Jan-10 Mar-10
45.00%
40.30%
40.00%
35.00% 33.50%
30.00%
26.20%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
First-Time Buyers (%) Repeat Buyers (%) Investor Buyers (%
Source: C.A.R. Broker Confidence Survey

44. FHA and VA Mortgages
(First Mortgage)
40%
FHA VA
35% 4.7%
30%
25%
20%
15% 32.0%
10%
5%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage
CAR 2009 Annual Housing Market Survey

45. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2004 Q1 100%
2004 Q2
2004 Q3
2004 Q4
2005 Q1
2005 Q2
2005 Q3
2005 Q4
SOURCE: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
73%
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
2007 Q1
2007 Q2
Off Sharply since 2007
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
Jumbo Share of Mortgage Originations
13%

46. Fed & Treasury Market Intervention Drives Conf/Jumbo
Spread Toward “Normal”…But Not There Yet
Conv/Conf 30-Yr FRM N.C Jumbo 30-Yr FRM Spread
10% L/R Avg Spread: 1.6%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Aug-08
Nov-08
Aug-09
Nov-09
Jan-08
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Jul-08
Jun-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-09
Jul-09
Apr-10
May-08
May-09
May-10
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
SOURCE: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.
Note: data for research purposes only, do not redistribute

47. 2010 Forecast:

48. Market 2010 and Beyond
• Worst of market decline has past
• Sales:
• CA: recovering since late 2007
• US: bottom in late 2007, recovering since mid 2009
– Prices:
• CA & US : trough in early 2009, up since
• Name of the game: Financing
• Distressed properties in many markets for next 2--3 yrs
• Flow of distressed loans managed by lenders, some
loans diverted by Fed programs
• High end markets constrained by jumbo financing, but
situation is improving

49. California Housing Market Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f
SFH Resales
601.8 624.7 625.0 477.5 346.9 439.8 546.5 521.0
(000s)
% Change 5.1% 3.8% 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 26.8% 24.3% -4.7%
Median Price
$371.5 $450.8 $522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $346.4 $275.0 $300.0
($000s)
% Change 17.5% 21.3% 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -38.2% -20.6% 9.1%
30-Yr FRM 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 5.3%
1-Yr ARM 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.2%
Forecast Date: June 2010
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

50. New Construction Will Return
CA New Housing Permits: -83% FROM 2004
300,000
Single Family Multi-Family
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
SOURCE: CBIA

51. 50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1984
1985
1986
1987
SOURCE: U.S, Census Bureau
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
CA
1996
1997
1998
US
1999
California Vs. U.S.
2000
2001
2002
Homeownership Rates
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

52. Buyers Remain Optimistic on Prices
All Buyers, 2010 1 year 5 years 10 years
Up 23% 52% 76%
Dow n 0% 0% 0%
Flat 28% 12% 2%
Don't Know 48% 36% 22%
Q. Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will
go up, down, or stay flat in 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?
Source: C.A.R. 2010 Survey of California Home Buyers

53. Thank You
Joel Singer
joels@car.org