Decision timing is a key factor in getting the most value from your decision making efforts. This presentation addresses some of the common decision traps, biases, and errors associated with determining when a decision must be made. Learn more at: http://www.decision-making-solutions.com/business_decision_making.html

1. Gary DeGregorio
Keith TenBrook
© 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved.

2. 
Gary DeGregorio

Keith Ten Brook
◦ As a career executive with Motorola, Gary worked in the field of
business software applied research for over fifteen years with a
focus on decision making, decision-based software and
collaboration frameworks. With a strong focus on innovation, Gary
developed an approach for creating knowledge in the context of a
decision framework.
◦ These experiences, coupled with a strong personal vision for
leveraging the value of decision tools in both personal and business
decision making, led Gary and Keith to build and launch Decision
Innovation, Inc.
◦ Keith brings a successful executive business career in leading teams
to develop new and innovative products. He built a successful
career with Motorola and Northrop Corporation where he leveraged
his engineering strengths to lead teams in creating new technologies
and products.
© 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved.
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3. “Time plays a role in almost every decision.
And some decisions define your attitude
about time.”
- John Cale (1942 - ), Welsh Musician, Composer, and Singer-songwriter
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4. 




Mere seconds for first responders
Minutes to choose what to eat
Hours to days for a significant purchase
Weeks to months for a large investment
Months to years for strategic decisions or major life
choices
When is the decision or resolution needed?
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5. Decreasing
benefit or
increasing
loss
Value
Increasing
knowledge
Best Time
to Decide
Time
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6. Shooting from the hip - plunging in (Russo,
Schoemaker, 1990) without adequate
information
 Planning fallacy - the bias toward
underestimating how long actions will take
 Primacy effect - the tendency to weigh initial
events more than latter events which would
promote a quicker decision

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7. Immediate gratification - people tend to
prefer immediate payoffs over later payoffs,
and this increases as payoffs get closer
 Neglect of risk - the inclination to completely
disregard probability or risk when making
uncertain decisions

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8. Herd instinct - common bias to adopt the
views and follow the behaviors of the majority
 Shortsighted shortcuts (Russo, Schoemaker,
1990) - relying too heavily on convenient facts
or easily obtained information

Reference:
Russo, J., & Schoemaker, P. (1990, October). Decision Traps – The Ten
Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making & How to Overcome Them.
© 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved.
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9. Analysis paralysis or information bias - the
tendency to seek information that can not
affect the outcome or being more focused on
the process than the result
 Procrastination - waiting too long to gather
information
 Maintaining the status quo or complacency

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10. Recency effect - the mistake of weighting
recent events higher than earlier events which
could encourage a delayed decision
 Normalcy bias - rejecting the need to react or
plan for a failure or disaster that has never
happened before

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11. Goal is to find the balance between the
needed knowledge to choose effectively while
minimizing the value lost due to decision
delay
 Generally, gathering the information that
would enable objective evaluation of the
alternative solutions can be difficult and costly
 Optimum is rarely achieved in practice

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12. Acquiring the internal knowledge (individually
or within an organization) that would
characterize the success factors or goals for
the decision is a minimum that must be
achieved to have any hope for making an
effective choice
 Not obtaining this more easily gathered
internal knowledge is like starting a search
without determining what you are looking for

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13. Difficult and complex decisions can often lead
to large information gathering efforts
 Often this is a result of exposing how little is
known about possible consequences of
decision alternatives
 In this case, some effort is needed along a
solution path to expose what "we don't know
we don't know"

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14. Initiate lower cost exploratory efforts along the
paths of solution alternatives where high
uncertainty exists
 Make the decision and proceed along the
preferred solution alternative with checkpoints
in place that would force a new decision based
on new knowledge
 Take actions to reduce the known negative
consequences resulting from the decision delay

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15. 
From Bill Jensen's book “Simplicity - The New
Competitive Advantage” – 5 questions that, when
answered, led to action:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

How is this [decision] relevant to what I do?
What, specifically should I do?
How will I be measured, and what are the consequences?
What tools and support are available?
WIIFM - What’s In It For Me? For us?
Question #4 was identified as being the most
important, suggesting the increasing need for
decision making tools that can help deal with the
cognitive overload that results from information that
is doubling every three years.
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16. TM
Manage
Our 4-Step Process:
1.Frame
2.Innovate
3.Decide
4.Manage
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17. See our Business Decision Analysis Services:
Fast Framing™
Decision Analysis >
Sign up for our free Connected Decisions™ newsletter:
Connected Decisions™
Newsletter >
Request a Demo or Free trial of our DKC software:
Decision Knowledge
Center™ Software >
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