The document discusses insights from expert discussions around the world on the future of payments. It notes that payments are undergoing significant change enabled by an increasingly digital world. Five key themes emerged from the discussions: 1) disruption and changing nature of payments as cash is replaced by digital money and payment systems are challenged by new technologies; 2) the role of data in payments; 3) security, stability and standards; 4) consumer centricity; and 5) new markets and organizations. The future of payments is explored in terms of digital currency, unbundling of the payments value chain, and seamless ubiquitous payments across channels.

1. The
Future
of
Payments|
The
Emerging
View
Insights
from
Mul0ple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World

2. Context
Payments
is
one
of
the
key
themes
being
addressed
in
the
Future
Agenda
programme.
Payments
is
undergoing
a
period
of
significant
change,
enabled
by
an
increasingly
digital
and
connected
world.

3. Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program
that
accesses
mul0ple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
all
can
be
beGer
informed
and
s0mulate
innova0on.

4. Looking
Forwards
Organisa0ons
increasingly
want
to
iden0fy
and
understand
both
the
an0cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
beGer
prepared
for
the
future.

5. Future
Agenda
1.0
Top
Insights
for
2020
From
the
2010
program,
52
key
insights
on
the
next
decade
were
shared
widely
and
have
been
extensively
used
by
organisa0ons
around
the
world.
And
Future
Agenda
became
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
plaMorm.

6. Future
Agenda
in
Numbers
The
first
Future
Agenda
programme
engaged
a
wide
range
of
views
in
25
countries.
Future
Agenda
2.0
has
doubled
the
face-­‐to-­‐face
interac0on
and
significantly
raised
online
sharing,
debate
and
discussion.
Future
Agenda
1.0
1
HOST
16
TOPICS
25
COUNTRIES
50
WORKSHOPS
1500
ORGANISATIONS
Future
Agenda
2.0
50
HOSTS
25
TOPICS
38
COUNTRIES
115
WORKSHOPS
5000
ORGANISATIONS

7. Future
Agenda
2.0
Topics
The
second
version
of
the
Future
Agenda
program
is
taking
place
during
2015
and
has
been
addressing
20+
topics
via
100+
events
in
45
ci0es
in
38
countries
in
partnership
with
around
50
core
hosts.
Ageing
CiQes
Company
ConnecQvity
Data
EducaQon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work

8. MasterCard
Partnership
The
Future
of
Payments
is
undertaken
in
partnership
with
MasterCard.
This
emerging
view
reflects
insights
from
UK,
Hong
Kong,
Dubai
and
Johannesburg,
together
with
insights
from
other
topics
(e.g.
data,
currency,
privacy,
trade).
Ini0al
Perspec0ves
Q4
2014
Global
Discussions
2015
Insight
Synthesis
Q4
2015
Sharing
Output
Q1
2016

9. The
Future
of
Payments
|
The
Emerging
View
This
document
provides
an
overview
of
what
we
heard
from
mul0ple
expert
voices
around
the
world
–
on
the
future
of
payments,
how
it
is
changing,
what
is
driving
this
change
and
how
it
may
evolve
over
the
next
decade.

10. Five
Key
Themes
Across
the
mul0ple
discussions,
issues
related
to
payments
seem
to
be
touching
upon
and
connec0ng
with
five
underlying,
and
interwoven,
themes
with
different
emphasis
in
different
regions.
Disrup0on
and
Changing
Nature
of
Payments
The
Role
of
Data
System
Security,
Stability
and
Standards
Consumer
Centricity
New
Markets,
New
Organisa0ons

11. DISRUPTION
AND
CHANGING
NATURE
OF
PAYMENTS

12. Digital
Money
Cash
is
gradually,
but
not
completely,
replaced
by
digital
money
providing
consumers
with
more
convenience
/
choice
–
and
organisa0ons
with
lower
cost
transac0ons.
More
new
offers
emerge,
including
in
the
black
economy.

13. Unbundling
of
Payments
Value
Chain
Greater
compe00on,
new
innova0ons
and
changing
regula0ons
will
mean
that
the
current
value
chain
will
spread
out,
removing
steps
and
so
reducing
costs
for
both
consumers
and
suppliers.

14. Payment
Systems
Challenged
Distributed
ledger
technology
enables
direct
exchange
to
take
place
without
recourse
to
a
trusted
third
party
and
at
a
frac0on
of
the
cost.
Blockchain
is
to
payments,
currency
and
trade
what
email
was
for
the
postal
service.

15. A
3D
View
of
Payments
Technology
will
allow
mul0ple
variables
to
be
compared
in
real-­‐0me,
producing
a
3D
view
allowing
traders
to
consider
what
they
are
buying,
why
they
are
buying
it
and
the
impact
that
this
may
have
instantaneously.

16. Currencies
of
Meaning
New
trusted
currencies
of
exchange
emerge
to
beGer
facilitate
transac0ons,
trade,
authen0ca0on
and
valida0on.
Money
as
a
means
of
exchange
is
complemented
by
new
systems
to
which
we
aGach
increasing
significance.

17. Seamless
Ubiquitous
Payments
The
ability
to
‘transact
anywhere’
with
integrated,
sophis0cated
authen0ca0on
such
as
biometrics
increases:
More
contactless
technology
and
a
convergence
of
standards,
enable
global
informa0on
exchanges.

18. Reduced
Human
Control
We
see
a
world
where
most
connected
devices
can
be
used
for
payments,
more
people
will
be
financially
included
and
there
are
more
automated
payment
choices
and
channels.

19. Omnichannel
Access
Customers
demand
omnichannel
access
to
goods
and
services.
You
can
order
online
and
pick
up
at
the
store,
order
at
store
and
arrange
delivery
online,
get
similar
offers
across
channels.
Payment
op0ons
reflect
this
degree
of
flexibility.

20. Growth
of
Mobile
Point
of
Sale
In
the
next
ten
years
there
will
be
a
global
acceptance
of
electronic
payment
products.
We
are
nearly
there
with
Square
and
iZeGle.
Such
is
their
success
it
is
expected
that
by
2019
46%
of
POS
terminals
will
be
mPOS.

21. Low
Value
Payments
One
area
that
is
likely
to
see
significant
transforma0on
is
low
value
payments
-­‐
everyday,
high-­‐frequency
purchases
for
which
cash
is
used
(typically
sub
$10
transac0ons)
and
make-­‐up
the
bulk
of
cash
transac0ons
today.

22. Mobile
Currency
Convergence
Ambi0ons
for
convergence
of
payment
types
is
accelerated
by
the
crea0on
of
seamless
mobile
consumer
experiences
that
unite
mul0ple
cash-­‐less
stores
of
value
including
a
range
of
tradi0onal
and
alterna0ve
currencies.

23. ProliferaQon
of
Currencies
People
will
increasingly
use
mul0ple
forms
of
currency
in
different
contexts:
alongside
na0onal
legal
tender,
we
will
see
more
local
and
crypto-­‐currencies
–
many
decoupled
from
exis0ng
systems.

24. THE
ROLE
OF
DATA

25. Data
Darwinism
Data
is
a
new
form
of
power:
Corporate
consolida0on
places
data
in
the
hands
of
a
few
who
are
able
to
dictate
terms
above
others.
Governments
correspondingly
have
less
power
as
they
have
less
access
to
key
data.

26. The
Increasing
Value
of
Data
As
organisa0ons
grab
more
data,
it
becomes
a
currency
with
a
value
and
a
price:
It
therefore
requires
marketplaces
–
transparent
ecosystems
for
trading
data
-­‐
so
anything
that
is
informa0on
is
represented
in
data
marketplaces.

27. Connected
Data
Data
must
be
connected
and
mul0
layered
to
be
relevant.
It
is
not
big
data
but
rather
connected
data
–
the
confluence
of
big
data
and
structured
data
that
maGers.

28. Big
Data
OpportuniQes
Most
of
the
opportuni0es
big
data
can
offer
have
yet
to
be
fully
exploited.
The
reality
is
that
there
are
different
chunks
of
data
that
are
collected,
stored
and
managed
in
mul0ple
ways.

29. Linkability
of
Open
Data
No
data
will
be
truly
anonymous:
Current
open
data
prac0ce
assumes
that
technology
will
be
not
be
able
to
relink
it
to
its
source.
This
is
not
the
case
and
so,
by
2025,
we
will
see
different
levels
of
de-­‐iden0fica0on.

30. The
Personal
Data
Dilemma
Lurking
ominously
in
the
background
there
is
also
the
ques0on
of
to
what
extent
consumers
will
allow
us
to
collect
and
use
their
personal
informa0on,
and
what
they
will
expect
in
return?

31. Personal
Data
Store
Led
by
developments
in
authen0ca0on
systems,
new
personal
data
plaMorms
migrate
into
the
world
of
marke0ng.
These
lead
to
seamless
and
universally
accepted
creden0als
stores
that
share
data
with
mul0ple
brand
partners.

32. Data
Ownership
Individuals
recognize
the
value
of
their
digital
shadows,
privacy
agents
curate
clients’
data
sets
while
personal
data
stores
give
us
transparent
control
of
our
informa0on:
We
retain
more
ownership
of
our
data
and
opt
to
share
it.

33. Seamless
Data
RepresentaQon
Improvements
in
the
way
in
which
data
is
visualized
and
presented
leads
to
rising
consump0on
and
wider
use.
In
turn,
we
see
greater
efficiencies
and
benefits
for
individuals,
companies,
governments
and
society
as
a
whole.

34. SYSTEM
SECURITY,
STABILITY
AND
STANDARDS

35. Integrated
Global
Governance
Regula0on
to
support
global,
regional
and
local
transac0ons
will
increase.
A
set
of
global
integrated
standards
for
payments
and
services
will
emerge
to
which
key
regulators
and
merchants
all
sign
up
to.

36. Digital
Regulatory
Regions
With
learnings
from
successes
in
East
Africa,
autonomous/sovereign
regulatory
authori0es
come
together
to
create
con0guous
digital
regulatory
regions
that
span
geographic
borders
and
boundaries
and
lead
to
payments
convergence.

37. Tension
with
RegulaQon
Some
regional
regulatory
interven0ons
protect
consumers
whilst
others
prevent
innova0on
by
limi0ng
use
of
new
technologies.
A
power
struggle
between
brands
and
government
emerges
around
wider
data
sharing
and
use.

38. RegulaQon
of
Services
A
new
regula0on
model
will
emerge
in
the
payments
world.
Whereas
to
date
regulators
have
focused
on
“defini0ons
of
en00es”
their
role
will
shis
to
being
more
about
“regula0on
of
services”
and
wider
alignment.

39. Integrated
Dollar
ProtecQon
As
more
disrup0ve
technologies
upset
the
status
quo,
interna0onal
regulators
collaborate
to
try
to
protect
the
US
dollar
as
the
global
reserve
currency
and
seek
to
enable
an
appropriate
pace
of
change.

40. Rising
Cyber
Security
Greater
interconnec0vity
and
the
Internet
of
Things
creates
new
vulnerabili0es
for
governments
and
corpora0ons
-­‐
as
the
unscrupulous
and
the
criminal
increasingly
seek
to
exploit
weakness
and
destroy
systems.

41. MulQ-­‐factor
AuthenQcaQon
Mul0-­‐factor
authen0ca0on
will
become
the
norm...
authen0ca0on
itself
will
become
more
secure
as
biometric
technology
from
hand
geometry,
via
face
recogni0on
and
fingerprints
to
iris
recogni0on
become
more
mainstream.

42. EvoluQon
of
Security
The
need
for
physical
security
reduces
with
demise
of
the
use
of
cash.
In
its
place,
more
secure
digital
solu0on
plaMorms
pervade
with
a
consolida0on
of
iden0ty
and
payments
into
an
ecosystem
that
includes
crypto-­‐currencies.

43. Universal
IdenQty
With
increasing
technology
convergence,
dependence
on
security
is
paramount
as
systems,
customer
data
and
trust
can
be
compromised.
A
highly
secure,
but
easy
to
use,
universal
iden0ty
plaMorm
emerges.

44. The
Changing
Nature
of
Privacy
Interna0onal
frameworks
seek
to
govern
the
Internet,
protect
the
vulnerable
and
secure
personal
data:
The
balance
between
government
protec0on,
security,
personal
privacy
and
public
good
is
an
increasingly
poli0cal
issue.

45. Trust
and
Integrity
of
the
System
As
more
individual
control
and
simplicity
is
sought,
how
will
the
privacy
con0nuum
evolve,
will
tokenisa0on
diminish
security
concerns
and
do
we
know
what
trust
will
mean
in
the
future?

46. CONSUMER
CENTRICITY

47. The
Composite
Consumer
Flexible
digital
iden00es
allow
consumers
to
connect
with
each
other
even
as
they
connect
with
brands.
Loyal
rela0onships
will
be
made
not
just
with
individual
customers
but
also
with
families,
couples,
and
groups
of
friends.

48. Changing
Customer
ExpectaQons
Customers
will
expect
different
things
from
their
payments
experience:
instead
of
just
‘security’,
there
will
also
be
a
need
for
greater
individual
control,
flexibility,
choice,
efficiency,
convenience
and
“good
fric0on”.

49. Changing
Dynamics
of
ConsumpQon
A
move
to
more
conscious
consump0on
of
experiences
instead
of
the
hyper-­‐
consump0on
of
stuff
results
in
a
shis
in
the
u0lisa0on
of
assets
and
social
view
of
status
and
hence
associated
anxiety
around
progress
in
a
low-­‐growth
world.

50. TransacQonal
vs.
EmoQonal
Seamless
payments
will
distance
consumers
from
understanding
monetary
value.
Brands
will
have
to
reconsider
the
way
they
connect
to
customers
providing
more
holis0c
and
emo0onal
value.

51. Personalised
Shopping
In
ten
years
you
can
expect
to
walk
past
a
shop
and
your
mobile
will
receive
meaningful
and
personal
no0fica0ons
on
discounts
or
deals
in
store
that
you
are
likely
to
buy
based
on
your
shopping
preferences.

52. Paying
for
Privacy
We
do
not
currently
understand
the
value
of
our
data
or
how
it
is
being
used
and
so
are
giving
it
away.
In
the
future
we
might
be
willing
to
pay
more
for
our
privacy
than
the
data
we
share.

53. Device
is
King,
Consumer
is
Queen
Whether
on
devices
or
in
the
cloud,
our
digital
repositories
will
know
who
we
are,
where
we
are
and
what
we
redeem.
Businesses
need
to
understand
these
new
intermediaries
and
how
they
define
our
rela0onships
with
their
brands.

54. Empowering
the
Crowd
In
the
future
anyone
will
be
able
to
trade,
immediately
knowing
the
amount
they
are
paying
in
the
currency
of
their
choice.
The
number
of
par0cipants
will
drive
the
market
rather
than
single,
large-­‐scale
investors.

55.
NEW
MARKETS,
NEW
ORGANISATIONS

56. Joining
the
Dots
Increasing
collabora0on
drives
companies
to
re-­‐organise
based
on
social
networks.
The
shared
economy
changes
the
shape
of
many
organisa0ons,
but
a
shis
in
the
role
of
the
company
from
employer
to
facilitator
challenges
many.

57. OrganisaQon
3.0
New
forms
of
flaGer,
project-­‐based,
collabora0ve,
virtual,
informal
organisa0ons
dominate
-­‐
enabled
by
technology
and
a
global
mobile
workforce.
As
such
the
nature
of
work
and
the
role
of
organisa0on
itself
blurs.

58. CompeQtor
CollaboraQon
Wider
collabora0ons
change
the
payments
landscape
with
credit
card
companies
partnering
with
merchants,
MNOs,
and
new
entrants.
These
partnerships
share
infrastructure,
increasing
consumer
u0lity
and
choice.

59. Free
Banking
from
Non-­‐tradiQonal
Players
Innova0ve
business
models
-­‐
underpinned
by
changing
technology,
consumer
demand
and
governments
pushing
for
cheaper
or
free
banking
-­‐
open
the
doors
to
new
entrants
from
outside
the
sector
that
break
old
monopolies.

60. Financial
Inclusion
Driven
by
Payments
Companies
Improvements
in
financial
educa0on
for
the
mass
are
driven
by
the
payments
industry,
not
governments.
Predica0ve
algorithms
protect
consumers
by
reducing
their
ability
to
over-­‐extend
themselves
with
cheap
credit.

61. Commercial
Payments
Commercial
payments
by
businesses
total
over
$100Tn
globally.
New
commercial
payments
solu0ons
emerge,
offering
value
from
beGer
working
capital
management
as
well
as
process
improvements
will
emerge.

62. Personal
Mobility
Accounts
Consumers
have
a
single,
digital
mobility
account
that
is
recognisable
and
accepted
by
everyone
in
the
eco-­‐system.
They
also
use
/
sell
their
mobility
data
to
mul0ple
service
providers
via
local
/
regional
data
brokerages.

63. Privacy
Agents
The
difficul0es
in
extrac0ng
value
from
our
data
while
protec0ng
our
privacy
sees
the
emergence
of
new
professions.
Look
out
for
‘privacy
agents’
and
‘data
brokers’
ac0ng
as
intermediaries
and
managing
the
flow
of
our
data.

64. Future
Agenda
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the
mix
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