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A Primer for Building
                          a Landscape of Futures Thinking
          So...               and Strategic Foresight


       You Want
       to Create
          the
        Future?           Yvette Montero Salvatico, Principal
                               Frank Spencer, Principal
                                       Kedge
Thursday, August 23, 12
Nobody cares if you were good
  last year and certainly not if
  you were good last decade.

  They care about what
  you're going to give
  them in the future.
  And all business planning needs
  to be looking           forward, not
  backward...

  Trying to grow any business by
  looking at what it used        to do
  is never going to work.
Thursday, August 23, 12
Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight...
                          the Immune System of Business
                                              illuminate      potential
                                             unexpected      threats and
                                             implications     emerging
                                                            opportunities
                                                 new
                                                              testing
                                             perspectives
                                                              possible
                                                             outcomes
                                              what could
                                               happen       dealing only
                                                            with today’s
     vulnerable and           context for   strengthening    problems
         blind to             present-day     collective     leaves us
       challenges              decisions       capacity      weakened

Thursday, August 23, 12
Balancing the Future


             Trends &                            Aspirations &
             Emerging                             Preferred
              Issues:                              Futures:

        “Here comes                              “The future
         the future.”                             is ahead.”




Thursday, August 23, 12
The 4 Steps in Foresight

                            Exploration               Discovery
             1                                                        2
                     Ladder of Inference     Environmental Scanning
                   Causal Layered Analysis    Wicked Opportunities



                              Mapping                   Action
             3                                                        4
                    Scenario Development        Strategic Design

Thursday, August 23, 12
The future
                                                    cannot not be
                          “Cone of Possibilities”

                                                      predicted,
                                                     but it can be
                                                      mapped...
                                                       much like
                                                    projecting the
                                                       path of a
                                                     large storm.

Thursday, August 23, 12
The 3 Environments of Scenario Development
                    The 3 Environments

                          External Environment


                          Industry Environment

     Social                                      Competitors
 Technological
                             Organization or      Regulations
   Economic
                               Focal Issue       Stakeholders
 Environmental
    Political                                     Customers


                                 Internal
                              Driving Forces

                                 External
                              Driving Forces


Thursday, August 23, 12
Understanding and Preparing for Multiple Possibilities is
           the Difference Between Success and Failure


                          Transformation   Breakthrough


          “The Linear Future”
                                                  Resilience

                                           Br
                                             ea
                            Adaptation         kd
                                                    ow
                                                       n


Thursday, August 23, 12
Why Is Futures Thinking Critical To The Success Of
               Innovation In The Postnormal Economy?
  You can't have a         better tomorrow if
  you're only thinking        about yesterday.

  Those who can look ahead with
  foresight are better equipped to face
  change and harness opportunity, since
  they know which decisions today might open up
  new doors tomorrow.

  Applying foresight thinking can turn a
  complex and unclear world into
  a map of new innovation, opportunities,
  and possibilities.
                                  Foresight and Innovation at Stanford University

Thursday, August 23, 12
Wednesday, August 22, 12
About Kedge, LLC
   Kedge is a minority-owned foresight, innovation, creativity, and strategic design consultancy. We help our clients to
   thrive in a world of complex ideas and practices, uncover emerging trends on the horizon that will impact their
   business, and discover unseen opportunities for strategic advantage and development.

   Yvette Montero Salvatico, Partner/Principal
   Holding a bachelor’s degree in Finance and an MBA from the University of Florida, Yvette has over 15 years of
   corporate experience with large, multi-national firms such as Kimberly-Clark and The Walt Disney Company. Before
   becoming a partner at Kedge, she lead the effort to establish Future Workforce Insights at the Walt Disney Company,
   identifying future workforce trends and leveraging foresight models and techniques to assess potential threats and
   impacts, emerging ideas, and exciting opportunities for the organization. Yvette is an experienced speaker,
   addressing large audiences on topics such as business policy, diversity, and foresight.

   Frank Spencer, Partner/Principal
   Prior to founding Kedge, Frank worked for 15 years as a leadership coach and developer with entrepreneurs, social
   communities, networking initiatives and SMEs, helping them to advance human development, local and global
   innovation, and open-source collaboration. He holds a Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight from Regent University,
   and is a member of the Association of Professional Futurists and the World Futures Studies Federation. With a
   strong background in both business and academic foresight, Frank taught a course on futures and foresight for
   developing solutions to wicked problems at the Duke TIP Institutes; is on the organizing team that is developing an
   MSc in Foresight and Innovation at ISTIA/The University of Angers in France; and has worked on strategic foresight
   projects for companies such as Kraft, Mars, Marriott, and The Walt Disney Company.

       Yvette Montero Salvatico                                                       Frank W. Spencer, IV
       Principal, Kedge, LLC                                                          Principal, Kedge, LLC
       2905 Boat Dock Road                                                            12 Drake Drive
       Kissimmee, Florida 34746                                                       Savannah, Georgia 31406
       407-973-1172                                                                   912-660-6726
       e-mail: yvette@kedgefutures.com      www.kedgefutures.com                      e-mail: frank@kedgefutures.com
Thursday, August 23, 12

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So... You Want To Create The Future?

  • 1. A Primer for Building a Landscape of Futures Thinking So... and Strategic Foresight You Want to Create the Future? Yvette Montero Salvatico, Principal Frank Spencer, Principal Kedge Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 2. Nobody cares if you were good last year and certainly not if you were good last decade. They care about what you're going to give them in the future. And all business planning needs to be looking forward, not backward... Trying to grow any business by looking at what it used to do is never going to work. Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 3. Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight... the Immune System of Business illuminate potential unexpected threats and implications emerging opportunities new testing perspectives possible outcomes what could happen dealing only with today’s vulnerable and context for strengthening problems blind to present-day collective leaves us challenges decisions capacity weakened Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 4. Balancing the Future Trends & Aspirations & Emerging Preferred Issues: Futures: “Here comes “The future the future.” is ahead.” Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 5. The 4 Steps in Foresight Exploration Discovery 1 2 Ladder of Inference Environmental Scanning Causal Layered Analysis Wicked Opportunities Mapping Action 3 4 Scenario Development Strategic Design Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 6. The future cannot not be “Cone of Possibilities” predicted, but it can be mapped... much like projecting the path of a large storm. Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 7. The 3 Environments of Scenario Development The 3 Environments External Environment Industry Environment Social Competitors Technological Organization or Regulations Economic Focal Issue Stakeholders Environmental Political Customers Internal Driving Forces External Driving Forces Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 8. Understanding and Preparing for Multiple Possibilities is the Difference Between Success and Failure Transformation Breakthrough “The Linear Future” Resilience Br ea Adaptation kd ow n Thursday, August 23, 12
  • 9. Why Is Futures Thinking Critical To The Success Of Innovation In The Postnormal Economy? You can't have a better tomorrow if you're only thinking about yesterday. Those who can look ahead with foresight are better equipped to face change and harness opportunity, since they know which decisions today might open up new doors tomorrow. Applying foresight thinking can turn a complex and unclear world into a map of new innovation, opportunities, and possibilities. Foresight and Innovation at Stanford University Thursday, August 23, 12 Wednesday, August 22, 12
  • 10. About Kedge, LLC Kedge is a minority-owned foresight, innovation, creativity, and strategic design consultancy. We help our clients to thrive in a world of complex ideas and practices, uncover emerging trends on the horizon that will impact their business, and discover unseen opportunities for strategic advantage and development. Yvette Montero Salvatico, Partner/Principal Holding a bachelor’s degree in Finance and an MBA from the University of Florida, Yvette has over 15 years of corporate experience with large, multi-national firms such as Kimberly-Clark and The Walt Disney Company. Before becoming a partner at Kedge, she lead the effort to establish Future Workforce Insights at the Walt Disney Company, identifying future workforce trends and leveraging foresight models and techniques to assess potential threats and impacts, emerging ideas, and exciting opportunities for the organization. Yvette is an experienced speaker, addressing large audiences on topics such as business policy, diversity, and foresight. Frank Spencer, Partner/Principal Prior to founding Kedge, Frank worked for 15 years as a leadership coach and developer with entrepreneurs, social communities, networking initiatives and SMEs, helping them to advance human development, local and global innovation, and open-source collaboration. He holds a Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight from Regent University, and is a member of the Association of Professional Futurists and the World Futures Studies Federation. With a strong background in both business and academic foresight, Frank taught a course on futures and foresight for developing solutions to wicked problems at the Duke TIP Institutes; is on the organizing team that is developing an MSc in Foresight and Innovation at ISTIA/The University of Angers in France; and has worked on strategic foresight projects for companies such as Kraft, Mars, Marriott, and The Walt Disney Company. Yvette Montero Salvatico Frank W. Spencer, IV Principal, Kedge, LLC Principal, Kedge, LLC 2905 Boat Dock Road 12 Drake Drive Kissimmee, Florida 34746 Savannah, Georgia 31406 407-973-1172 912-660-6726 e-mail: yvette@kedgefutures.com www.kedgefutures.com e-mail: frank@kedgefutures.com Thursday, August 23, 12