The document discusses America's declining scientific leadership and competitiveness in science and technology. It notes that the US is training and retaining fewer scientists compared to countries like China. Several statistics are presented showing declining performance in areas like math, science and engineering education in the US compared to other nations. Reasons proposed for this decline include underfunding of education, difficulties obtaining student visas, and a perception that more opportunities now exist abroad. The document argues that strengthening STEM education is key to maintaining US innovation and security in the future.

1. September 21, 2010 Dr. Marvin J. Cetron Forecasting International, Falls Church, VA Prepared by Frank Sowa, The Xavier Group, Ltd. What happened to America’s Scientific Greatness? Co-sponsored by:

2. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International INTRODUCTION “ The country's security is at risk because we are training -- and keeping -- fewer scientists. The Chinese, on the other hand, are rich in high-level talent.” – MARVIN J. CETRON, Newsmax (Feb. 2010) Marvin J. Cetron is founder of Forecasting International and one of the world's leading forecaster-futurists. He served as White House adviser and consulted for more than 400 of the Fortune 500 firms, 150 professional and academic organizations, and 100 government agencies, including the CIA and NSA.

3. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Is the greatness of the U.S. slipping away? "Scientific leadership drives the economic strength and security of nations. The fall is not from a cliff. More like a slow, downward slide — almost imperceptible from day to day. But as the years pass America will have descended from leaders to players to merely followers as we fade to insignificance, at best hitching a ride on the innovations of others." -- NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON -- Astrophysicist, American Museum of Natural History; Host, NOVA scienceNOW (2009)

4. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Science and Math Illiteracy National Academy of Sciences (2009) “ The scientific and technical building blocks of our economic leadership are eroding at a time when many other nations are gathering strength.” -- Report of the National Academy of Sciences (2009) “ Although many people assume that the U.S. will always be a world leader in science and technology, this may not continue to be the case inasmuch as great minds and ideas now exist throughout the world. We fear the abruptness with which our lead can be lost...” -- Report of the National Academy of Sciences (2009)

5. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International US manufacturing crown slips “ After a 110-year run as the number one country in factory production – the US is poised to lose this slot in 2011 to China. When China overtakes the U.S., it will be a return to the top slot that it had for more than 1,500 years until the Industrial Age gave Britain the edge briefly from 1850 to 1890. The shift will also give China an edge in scientific and technological leadership.” -- Financial Times, UK (June 2010)

6. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Where we were … 1957 The Soviet Union launches Sputnik, the first man-made satellite to orbit Earth, setting off a wave of concern among Americans about the nation’s technological dominance and the quality of math and science education. President Eisenhower responded by launching ARPA (DARPA today), and NASA; as well as signing into law the National Defense Education Act to advance at every level our ability to compete and innovate: math and science education in primary and secondary schools, college loans, graduate fellowships, vocational training, and major scientific research facilities.

7. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International The Research Triangle Park 1959 One of the largest scientific research parks in North America, The Research Triangle Park was founded in 1959 as a primary beneficiary of the National Defense Education Act. Originally conceived as a private venture in the 1950’s, business and government leaders worried about North Carolina’s economic future. Per capita income ($1,049) was one of the lowest in the nation. Getting major companies to take a risk on a low-income area in the South was no easy task. Still, leaders didn’t back down, and continued to plan how to best attract modern industries. RTP was their brainchild, the “South’s most successful high-technology venture.” Five organizations located in RTP in 1959.

8. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International The National Defense Education Act (NDEA) 1959 The NDEA shored up the nation's educational and research facilities, fostering technical development, and trying to improve businesses by targeting on educating students' with high academic achievement levels. The NDEA funded programs “ Sputnik ushered in an era of US self-doubt, ‘a sudden crisis of confidence in American technology, values, politics, and the military’. Immediately, the rhetoric surrounding education shifted from the needs of below-average students to the needs of above-average students.” – Paul Dickson, Educator, Radio and TV Broadcast (1974 -- recollecting on 1957) in science, mathematics, engineering, and foreign languages.

9. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International The Research Triangle Park Today … “ We’re the richest region in the Southeastern United States. We have the highest concentration of Ph.D.’s of any of the top 100 metropolitan areas. We have 23 million square feet of built space, representing 18 or 19 60-story office buildings. The key to the Research Triangle Park’s success is close integration. Science parks aren’t just a place where creative people work together. Governments, universities, and industries also have to collaborate closely.” -- Rick Weddle, Research Triangle Park’s president (2009)

10. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Research Triangle Region Top University Enrollments North Carolina State University 32,872 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 28,567 Wake Technical Community College 18,899 Duke University 14,060 North Carolina Central University 8,035 Durham Technical Community College 7,774 Shaw University 2,702 Meredith College 2,250 St. Augustine’s University 1,451 Peace College 713 TOTAL 117,323

11. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Science and Math Illiteracy “ Science and math illiteracy are endangering U.S. global competitiveness and national security.” “ Tech-savvy countries and states are always wealthier. They can apply that advantage into competitiveness and security to ensure their future. We can explain three-quarters of the variation in country studies, or in state-by-state income when you examine their technology ranking.” -- Ross DeVol, Director of Regional Economics, The Milken Institute

12. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Are we falling behind? “TopCoder Open” Results Las Vegas -- put on by the National Security Agency 2009 70 Finalists from nine countries • 20 Chinese • 10 Russian • 6 Indonesian and Ukrainian each • 4 Canadian, Polish, Philippines, Argentinean each • 3 U.S. programmers U.S. Champions in any of the nine events -- NONE!

13. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Science and Math Today The TIMSS, PISA and NAEP studies “ When compared to high achieving countries, the U.S. does not fare well especially in comparisons of technology, and literacy in math and science. Where will business expand in the 21st Century?” -- William H. Schmidt, PhD., Michigan State University 2002 NAEP study In 2006, out of 57 countries, when measuring the proficiency of students in science and math the U.S. ranked 29th, behind Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Liechtenstein, Estonia and others. -- U.S. Dept of Education (2008) PISA Study Results In 2007, out of 46 countries, when measuring the proficiency of students in science and math the U.S. ranked 25th, behind Russia, India, Singapore, England and others. -- U.S. Dept of Education (2009) TIMSS Study Results 2007 TIMSS Study Results

14. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Science and Math Today International Engineering Degree studies “ By 2015, fully 90% of all scientists and engineers will reside and work out of Asia unless we do something about the U.S. brain drain.” -- Martin Jischke, President, Purdue University The 34% gap … In China 40% of all graduates major in engineering. In India 20% of all graduates major in engineering. In Europe 12% of all graduates major in engineering. In Canada 9% of all graduates major in engineering. In the U.S. just 6% are engineering majors. -- National Science Foundation STEM Study (2008)

15. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Science and Math Today The Georgetown / Rutgers STEM study “ Despite popular opinion, the flow of qualified math and science students through the American education pipeline is strong -- except among high-achievers in traditional universities, who appear to be defecting in ever-increasing numbers to other college majors and fields like business, finance, consulting, teaching, the social sciences, and law. Perhaps we’d be better off with a ‘career-ready’ curriculum, like that offered at technical schools and community colleges.” -- Georgetown / Rutgers STEM study 2010

16. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Science / Math Today… STEM - Massachusetts Leads “ Massachusetts leads the nation in science education as 52 percent of the state's population are proficient in math and science, compared to the national rate of 38 percent. Our only hope is for a dramatic increase in the number of Americans who earn degrees in the sciences, technologies, engineering, and mathematics.” -- William Swanson, CEO Raytheon “ Only 167,000 will earn a scientific or technical degree by 2011. Compared to China, India, and other parts of the world it's a drop in the bucket. That's frightening for a company like ours." -- William Swanson, CEO Raytheon North Carolina STEM Ranking -- 36% (below U.S. national rate)

17. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International The Brain Drain An issue of demographics, too. The brightest 20% of Chinese students outnumber ALL of the young people (age 26 and under) living in the United States. India is right behind China. As these countries develop, much-more of their school-age children will receive an education.

18. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Science and Math Today The AAAS Project 2061 study “ In what ways can partnerships between business and education contribute to the attainment of science literacy? Does an emphasis on preparation for work help or hinder the implementation of science literacy goals?” “ One place AAAS found great connections, is that educators must themselves be literate in science, mathematics, technology, and their interconnections. They must know how to teach in ways that will help students understand and retain the most important concepts. And they must be able to select curriculum materials that meet benchmarks and standards. Business and Industry can really help educators here.” -- AAAS Project 2061: Blueprints for Reform (2001)

19. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International So What’s Wrong with the U.S.? America’s technology infrastructure has both QUANTITY and QUALITY problems: QUANTITY: On a numerical basis the U.S. must provide a high level of science and mathematics education to ever-greater numbers of enrolled students -- in order to OFFSET the numerical advantages of larger countries. QUALITY: They must know how to teach in ways that will help students understand and retain the most important concepts. And they must be able to select curriculum materials that meet benchmarks and standards. “Business and Industry can really help educators here.” -- AAAS Project 2061: Blueprints for Reform (2001)

20. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International A Superpower in Decline? • In 1987, Congress and Clinton killed the Superconducting Super Collider being built in Texas -- CERN (Europe) took the lead • Military research is consuming an increasing portion of the R&D pie -- R&D for civilian purposes needs to be doubled • Funding is harder to come by -- Cash is churning more slowly since the global recession started • Post 9/11 student visas are more difficult to obtain • Only slightly more than half of graduating students say they want to remain in the U.S. as there are greater opportunities offshore • U.S. Businesses are increasingly moving their R&D, engineering, and manufacturing out of the U.S. to Asia

21. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Why the Decline? As Foreign Students see it “ Foreign students have a sense that the U.S. is closing down as the land of opportunity.” -- AnnaLee Saxenian, Dean, University of California “ A majority of foreign students now believe innovation over the next 25 years will occur much faster in China and India than it will in the United States.” -- AnnaLee Saxenian, Dean, University of California

22. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International Why the Decline? Is the Global Recession hiding the truth? “ The U.S. science gap is growing wider, but concerns over the global recession have postponed recognition of the serious shortages we’re facing. We’re in a recession now, so there’s enough good talent available, but in the longer term it will hurt like you won’t believe.” -- Dr. Viveck Wadwha, Duke University

23. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International So What’s Wrong with the U.S.? Maintaining America’s technological edge in a hostile world requires a willingness to invest the resources needed to nurture new fields of scientific endeavor. THIS MUCH IS CERTAIN: FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION. “ Losing critical talent means arming the U.S.’s competition. The next Apple, Google, or Microsoft could be launched in Shanghai or Bangalore.” -- Dr. Viveck Wadwha, Duke University

24. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International THE WAY FORWARD: Let’s Get Serious about Science Overhauling the Education System “ Education is not an island. It is affected not only by what is happening in the field, but more importantly, what is happening in the rest of society – in business, with population changes, technological advances, economic ups and downs, political shifts, and social transformations.” -- Margaret Evans Gayle, Executive Director, AAGC, Duke University Schools must graduate more students who are STEM literate, who are fully able to succeed in an increasingly competitive, high-tech world. EDUCATION IS THE KEY: EDUCATION IS OUR FUTURE.

25. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International THE WAY FORWARD: Let’s Get Serious about Science Studies show students learn better online than in the classroom. Perform more learning functions, attending lectures, performing activities, as real-time and asynchronous collaboration over the Net -- and gather only for lab work, social interaction, sports, and other functions. Use TV programming in your classroom. (Sesame Street, Electric Company, History Channel, Discovery) This would cut school costs, improve learning, and add many more lifelong learners. CLICKS NOT BRICKS: GET RID OF THE EDIFICE COMPLEX.

26. REVISE IMMIGRATION POLICIES. Students seeking to matriculate in America -- especially those desiring to pursue careers in math and science -- deserve a warm welcome; and should be placed in a program, by revised policy, to work in the U.S. for a period of time post-graduation before potentially leaving. REVISE EDUCATIONAL ASSISTANCE. U.S. citizen students entering a STEM education should be given an opportunity to replace financial aid and loans with a free education -- pending agreement to enter a post-graduate work plan, similar to the one offered military veterans. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International THE WAY FORWARD: Let’s Get Serious about Science IMMIGRATION NEEDS

28. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International THE WAY FORWARD: Short-Term Problems of the Global Recession Getting the unemployed to consider new STEM occupations and retraining is an opportunity. BUT NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO SIT BACK -- THIS REQUIRES WE TAKE ACTION NOW! Where are the opportunities evolving?

33. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International THE WAY FORWARD: Law of Accelerating Returns Product cycles have decreased exponentially since mass manufacturing first brought the concept to the surface. From 30 years to 7-8 weeks. • Assembly Line • Space Age • Internet Age • Integrated Knowledge Age Sitting on ideas, improvements, and innovations while chasing cheap imitations will not work in the 21st Century. THE CASH COW APPROACH IS DEAD!

34. 9-21-2010 Copyright © 2010 Forecasting International THE WAY FORWARD: Let’s Get Serious about Science Not a educator … I’m a scientist / engineer … But, I slept with a teacher for 53 years.