SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 11
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
Whitney R. Tilson and Glenn H. Tongue                                                phone: 212 386 7160
Managing Partners                                                                       fax: 240 368 0299
                                                                                  www.T2PartnersLLC.com

December 1, 2011

Dear Partner,

Our fund fell 0.6% in November vs. -0.2% for the S&P 500, +1.2% for the Dow and -2.3% for
the Nasdaq. Year to date, it’s down 25.0% vs. +1.1% for the S&P 500, +6.7% for the Dow and
-0.5% for the Nasdaq.

On the long side, our three winners of note were Grupo Prisa (B shares) (18.9%), Iridium (stock
11.8% and warrants 4.0%), and AB InBev (8.2%). These gains were more than offset by Netflix
(-21.4%), Sears Canada (-16.7%), Citigroup (-13.0%), Goldman Sachs (-12.5%), and dELiA*s
(-10.7%).

Our short book did well during the month and is now in the black on the year (meaning that all of
our losses are on the long side). Our biggest winners in November were Career Education
(-56.2%), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (-19.4%), Nokia (-14.0%), Lululemon (-12.0%), ITT
Educational Services (-11.3%), and Salesforce.com (-11.1%). Our only loser of note was
InterOil (+15.1%).

Tax Estimates
Tax estimates through the end of October will soon be available, so if you would like to receive
yours please email or call Kelli at KAlires@T2PartnersLLC.com or (212) 386-7160.

Iridium
Iridium’s stock jumped after the company reported very strong earnings on November 8th. The
company soundly beat analysts’ estimates and its own guidance for revenue, margins, EBITDA,
and subscriber growth, with particular strength in both the machine-to-machine and legacy
commercial voice product lines. Operational EBITDA margin hit a new high of 53.5% and
management raised its 2011 outlook for subscriber growth (up 25% year over year) and
operational EBITDA (up 20% year-over-year to ~$190 million). As an added bonus, the
company said it would pay “negligible cash taxes from 2011 to approximately 2020.”

We think this earnings report should assuage the concerns we’ve heard from investors and
analysts, and are optimistic that it will prove to be a turning point for the stock, which we believe
is deeply undervalued.

Grupo Prisa
Grupo Prisa received a boost in November when Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim acquired a
3.2% stake (see article in Appendix A). We think the stock will receive another boost in the next
few weeks when the company announces that it has successfully refinanced its debt.



                     The GM Building, 767 Fifth Avenue, 18th Floor, New York, NY 10153
As background, this is what we wrote in our September letter:

       Spain and Portugal are going through a crisis similar to the one the U.S. went through in late
       2008, so it’s not surprising that the stock of a company with 77% of its revenues in these two
       countries is suffering. It’s also not surprising that the company’s operating performance has been
       affected by the deep recession in its primary markets, though the company is holding up
       remarkably well in light of this: in the first half of 2011, revenues were down only 1.2%, adjusted
       EBITDA rose 3.6%, and the company’s restructuring and cost-cutting is on track.

       Prisa, however, needs to refinance its debt to give it breathing room to get through the current
       crisis. Our discussion with management and others – plus our own experience – leads us to have
       a high degree of confidence that Prisa will be able to do so successfully, but the uncertainty is
       weighing heavily on the stock.

Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
A couple of weeks ago we sent you an article we published entitled “Why We’re Long Netflix
and Short Green Mountain Coffee Roasters,” which is attached in Appendix B. Since then, both
stocks have moved against us, making them even more attractive in our opinion.

InterOil
Though we haven’t discussed it in some time, InterOil remains one of our largest short positions.
Our bearish thesis is being validated as the company continues to miss deadlines on its
unrealistic promises, which will likely never be fulfilled, yet the company still has a $2.6 billion
market cap. We believe intrinsic value is zero.

       The government of Papua New Guinea appears to finally be waking up to this gigantic
       promotion because it’s demanded that InterOil find an “internationally-recognized LNG
       [liquefied natural gas] operating partner,” which is highly unlikely ever to occur, for
       reasons that are well articulated in this article, and will certainly not happen anytime in
       the near future. InterOil bulls are hoping for a partnership similar to the one between Oil
       Search and Exxon Mobil, but this deal took five years to reach final investment decision
       (FID). Real energy companies do not quickly make multi-billion dollar commitments in
       one of the world’s poorest, most corrupt countries, so even if InterOil has discovered a
       major natural gas field (which we highly doubt), it will take years to sign a deal with an
       “internationally-recognized LNG operating partner,” yet InterOil has promised this in the
       very near future.

       Here is a laundry list of what InterOil has promised by year-end:

           -   Secure FID with Mitsui for condensate stripping plant (CSP)
           -   Secure FEED [front-end engineering design] and FID with Energy World Corp.
               for modular LNG plant
           -   Secure FEED and FID with Flex LNG on floating LNG plant
           -   Sign definitive agreement with Noble Group for offtake of 1MTPA [million tons
               per annum]
           -   Secure “internationally-recognized LNG operating partner”
           -   Sign additional Heads of Agreement for 1-2MTPA offtake


                                                   -2-
With less than a month to go in the year, the only one of these that IOC has delivered on is the
last one, announcing recently that it had signed “a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with Gunvor
Singapore Pte. Ltd., for the supply of one million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural
gas (LNG).” However, Gunvor, according to Wikipedia, has unsavory ties:

          Following the major Wikileaks release of US State Department cables in November
          2010, it was reported by the London Daily Telegraph[17] that the wealth of Russian Prime
          Minister Vladimir Putin is linked to a "secretive Swiss-based oil trading firm" called
          Gunvor. It said that John Beyrle, the United States Ambassador to the Russian Federation
          stated that close connections exist between Gunvor and the Russian Government and that
          he reported: "its secretive ownership is rumoured to include prime minister Putin."

The whole point of an offtake agreement is so lenders will provide the billions of dollars that this
project would cost – but we question whether anyone would lend such a large amount of money
against an agreement with a firm like Gunvor.

For the most in-depth expose of InterOil, see this article, which links to 12 pages starting here.
For a more recent take, see this article.

Conclusion
Thank you for your continued confidence in us and the fund. As always, we welcome your
comments or questions, so please don’t hesitate to call us at (212) 386-7160.

Sincerely yours,


Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue

The unaudited return for the T2 Accredited Fund versus major benchmarks (including reinvested
dividends) is:

                                               November             Year-to-Date            Since Inception
T2 Accredited Fund – net                        -0.6%                -25.0%                     113.9%
S&P 500                                         -0.2%                  1.1%                      27.9%
Dow                                              1.2%                  6.7%                      76.8%
NASDAQ                                          -2.3%                 -0.5%                      24.2%
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please refer to the disclosure section at the end of this letter. The T2
Accredited Fund was launched on 7/1/04.




                                                                 -3-
T2 Accredited Fund Performance (Net) Since Inception
          200

          180

          160

          140

          120

          100
   (%) 80

           60

           40

           20

            0

           -20

           -40
             Jan-99           Jan-00      Jan-01       Jan-02       Jan-03        Jan-04       Jan-05        Jan-06        Jan-07         Jan-08         Jan-09         Jan-10     Jan-11
                                                                           T2 Accredited Fund                                     S&P 500


                  T2 Accredited Fund Monthly Performance (Net) Since Inception
                  1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
                 T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P
                 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500
January          7.8   4.1     -6.3    -5.0   4.4    3.6    -1.8   -1.5   -5.5   -2.6   4.7    1.8    1.1    -2.4   1.9    2.7     2.4     1.7    1.9     -5.9   -3.6     -8.4   -1.6   -3.6   -2.8   2.4

February     -2.9      -3.1    6.2     -1.9   -0.6   -9.2   -1.1   -2.0   2.9    -1.6   7.0    1.5    2.1    2.0    -3.1   0.2     -3.3    -2.1   -6.9    -3.3   -8.9 -10.8 7.3         3.1    4.1    3.4

March            4.1   4.0     10.3    9.8    -2.6   -6.4   3.0    3.7    1.4    0.9    3.9    -1.5   3.9    -1.7   3.9    1.3     -0.8    1.1    -2.3    -0.5    2.9     9.0    4.6    6.0    -4.1   0.0

April            2.1   3.7     -5.1    -3.0   5.1    7.8    -0.2   -6.0 10.5     8.2    2.4    -1.5   0.6    -1.9   2.2    1.4     4.4     4.6    -0.9    4.9    20.1     9.6    -2.1   1.6    1.9    3.0

May          -5.7      -2.5    -2.8    -2.0   1.8    0.6    0.0    -0.8   6.6    5.3    -1.4   1.4    -2.6   3.2    1.8    -2.9    2.5     3.3    7.9     1.2     8.1     5.5    -2.6   -8.0   -1.9   -1.1

June             2.2   5.8     4.1     2.4    4.6    -2.4   -7.3   -7.1   2.9    1.3    0.1    1.9    -3.1   0.1    -0.2   0.2     -3.0    -1.5   -1.2    -8.4   -5.0     0.2    4.5    -5.2   -2.4   -1.7

July         -0.7      -3.2    -3.6    -1.6   -1.1   -1.0   -5.0   -7.9   2.3    1.7    4.6    -3.4   0.5    3.7    -0.9   0.7     -5.4    -3.0   -2.5    -0.9    6.8     7.6    3.5    7.0    -4.6   -2.0

August           4.1   -0.4    5.4     6.1    2.5    -6.3   -4.3   0.5    0.4    1.9    -0.9   0.4    -3.2   -1.0   2.9    2.3     1.7     1.5    -3.3    1.3     6.3     3.6    -1.5   -4.5 -13.9 -5.4

September -3.3         -2.7    -7.2    -5.3   -6.1   -8.1   -5.4 -10.9 1.7       -1.0   -1.6   1.1    -1.5   0.8    5.0    2.6     -1.1    3.6    15.9    -9.1    5.9     3.7    1.7    8.9    -9.3   -7.0

October          8.1   6.4     -4.5    -0.3   -0.8   1.9    2.8    8.8    6.2    5.6    -0.4   1.5    3.5    -1.6   6.3    3.5     8.2     1.7 -12.5 -16.8 -1.9           -1.8   -1.7   3.8    7.0    10.9

November         2.8   2.0     -1.5    -7.9   2.3    7.6    4.1    5.8    2.2    0.8    0.8    4.0    3.1    3.7    1.9    1.7     -3.6    -4.2   -8.9    -7.1   -1.2     6.0    -1.9   0.0    -0.6   -0.2

December         9.8   5.9     2.3     0.5    6.5    0.9    -7.4   -5.8   -0.4   5.3    -0.2   3.4    -1.3   0.0    1.4    1.4     -4.3    -0.7   -4.0    1.1     5.5     1.9    0.5    6.7
YTD
             31.0 21.0 -4.5           -9.1 16.5 -11.9 -22.2 -22.1 35.1 28.6 20.6 10.9                 2.6    4.9    25.2 15.8 -3.2         5.5 -18.1 -37.0 37.1 26.5 10.5 15.1 -25.0 1.1
TOTAL
Note: Returns in 2001, 2003, and 2009 reflect the benefit of the high-water mark, assuming an investor at inception.




                                                                                                  -4-
Appendix A
   ď‚·   WSJ, DEALS & DEAL MAKERS
   ď‚·   NOVEMBER 18, 2011, 9:50 A.M. ET


Slim Buys Stake in Spain's El Pais
By DAVID ROMAN And ANA GARCIA

MADRID—A company owned by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim has acquired a 3.2% stake in
Spain's media group Promotora de Informaciones SA, in an unexpected move into one of the
economies at the forefront of the euro zone's debt crisis.

Mr. Slim, one of the world's richest men, bought the stake through Inmobiliaria Carso SA de CV,
a firm which he controls, according to regulatory filings released Friday. Mr. Slim has also used
Carso to build up a 8.1% stake in New York Times Co., the publisher of the New York-based
daily.

Inmobiliaria Carso didn't disclose how much it paid for the stake. At current market prices, it is
worth €12.5 million (about $17 million). The shares of Prisa, as the Spanish company is known,
jumped on the news of Mr. Slim's purchase, and they last traded up 13% at €0.85, valuing the
entire company at €383.2 million.

For Madrid-based Prisa, the country's largest media group, Mr. Slim's move is a much-needed
show of backing. The company, owner of Spain's best-selling newspaper El Pais, has been
restructuring and shedding assets in recent years as it seeks to reduce its heavy debt load.

As in the case of the New York Times Co., Prisa's share price has struggled recently. El Pais has
suffered a dip in sales, as well as a revenue squeeze owing to lower advertising. El Pais sells
around 370,000 newspapers a day.

Late last year, Prisa announced a plan to lay off 2,500 staff through the first quarter of 2012. This
came after U.S. investment fund Liberty Acquisition Holdings Corp. bought a majority stake in
the firm for some €650 million.

This is Mr. Slim's first foray in Spain's media sector, which until recently was flushed with cash
owing to the country's long-running property bubble. The sector is now in dire straits because
large corporate and government advertisers have cut down on investments sharply, just as
Internet competition and a drop in spending by highly indebted households has lowered demand
for newspapers.

Prisa, haunted by a series of bad investments, has been Spain's largest media company for
decades. Besides El Pais, it also owns Cadena Ser, Spain's largest radio network by audience,
and the profitable publisher Santillana, which has a large foothold in Latin America.


                                                 -5-
Appendix B




 Why We’re Long Netflix and Short
 Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
                                     November 13, 2011


                                   T2 Partners LLC
                                   The GM Building
                              767 Fifth Avenue, 18th Floor
                                 New York, NY 10153
                                    (212) 386-7160
                               Info@T2PartnersLLC.com




DISCLAIMER: THIS LETTER IS FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHALL NOT BE CONSTRUED
TO CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOTHING CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL CONSTITUTE A SOLICITATION,
RECOMMENDATION OR ENDORSEMENT TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY OR PRIVATE FUND MANAGED BY T2 PARTNERS.
SUCH AN OFFER WILL BE MADE ONLY BY AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM, A COPY OF WHICH IS AVAILABLE TO QUALIFYING
POTENTIAL INVESTORS UPON REQUEST. AN INVESTMENT IN A PRIVATE FUND IS NOT APPROPRIATE OR SUITABLE FOR ALL
INVESTORS AND INVOLVES THE RISK OF LOSS.
INVESTMENT FUNDS MANAGED BY T2 PARTNERS OWN CALLS AND ARE LONG THE STOCK OF NETFLIX AND OWN PUTS AND
ARE SHORT THE STOCK OF GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE ROASTERS.
WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS OF THE
INFORMATION, TEXT, GRAPHICS OR OTHER ITEMS CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION. WE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ALL
LIABILITY FOR ERRORS OR OMISSIONS IN, OR THE MISUSE OR MISINTERPRETATION OF, ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN
THIS PRESENTATION.
T2 PARTNERS MANAGEMENT LP IS A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. A COPY OF T2’S DISCLOSURE STATEMENT (PART II
OF FORM ADV), WHICH CONTAINS MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ADVISOR, INCLUDING ITS INVESTMENT STRATEGIES
AND OBJECTIVES, CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING (212) 386-7160.

                                                    -6-
Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters are former market darlings whose stocks have
collapsed in recent months, wiping out a combined $23.2 billion in market capitalization from their
peaks ($11.7 and $11.5 billion, respectively). By many metrics, both stocks appear cheap and the
terrible headlines are attractive to value investors like us, who like to buy when others are selling in
a panic. For example, BP was one of our biggest winners in 2010 (click here to read our analysis at
the time). The company, its CEO and the stock were all universally hated, with endless negative
headlines (similar to Netflix today), which provided a wonderful opportunity to buy the stock far
below its intrinsic value. We love situations like this – as long as we’re convinced that there’s a
good company and a cheap stock once one cuts through all of the noise.

So are Netflix and Green Mountain similar opportunities today? Yes and no. We’ve analyzed both
companies carefully and concluded that Netflix is an attractive investment at today’s price, so funds
we manage own the stock, but Green Mountain isn’t, we remain short it. Allow us to explain why.

Similarities
The stocks of both Netflix and Green Mountain over the past three months have suffered similar
declines, as this chart shows:




In addition, the companies are remarkably similar in revenues and profitability over the past 12
months:

                                             NFLX          GMCR
Revenues                                     $2,925         $2,651
Operating Income                              $393            $369
Net Income                                    $238            $201
Operating Margin                              13.4%          13.9%
Net Margin                                     8.1%           7.6%
All figures are in millions, over the trailing 12 months

Yet here the similarities end. Let’s take a look at both companies.



                                                           -7-
Netflix
When Netflix fell 35% in one day last month to under $80, we purchased it aggressively, not as a
short-term trade, but with a multi-year horizon. Over the next few quarters, the company will likely
lose money as it invests in international growth and struggles to overcomes its missteps over the
past few months. Ultimately, however, we think Netflix is an excellent company and that the
market has overreacted to all of the recent negative news, thereby providing us the chance to own it
at a cheap price, for reasons we discussed in our October letter to investors.

Green Mountain
In contrast, we are not only still short Green Mountain’s stock, but it remains our largest short
position, even after last Thursday’s 40% decline. Our reasons are superbly articulated in the 110-
slide presentation that Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn gave on the company at the Value
Investing Congress last month. Even if you don’t have a position in the stock, it’s worth studying
as a brilliant piece of analytical work – and it’s a must-read if you have a position. Although we
were already short Green Mountain, after seeing Einhorn’s presentation we concluded that it was an
even better short than we realized and increased the size of our investment, which has paid off
handsomely.

There’s a saying that pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered, so why don’t we cover our short and
take our profits? After all, the stock, at $43.71, is now trading at “only” 16.8x the midpoint of the
company’s guidance for next year, and at 12.5x Einhorn’s estimate of the company’s long-term
earnings power of $3.50 (see page 66 of his presentation).

The answer is that we think only the first shoe has dropped and there are more to come.

Netflix vs. Green Mountain
Here is a summary of our concerns about Green Mountain, with a comparison to Netflix:

   ď‚·   Green Mountain gave strong guidance for next quarter and year, which we think, in light of the
       company’s performance last quarter, is too high and will need to be reset downward. Analysts
       remain bullish. In contrast, Netflix has given very poor – and, we believe, conservative – guidance
       that we think the company can exceed, and analysts are significantly more bearish.

      Though it has similar revenues and profits, Green Mountain’s market cap, at $7.0 billion, is nearly
       50% higher than Netflix’s $4.7 billion, which means there’s more downside and less likelihood of an
       acquisition.

      Green Mountain’s business is highly dependent on two key patents, both of which expire on
       September 16, 2012. Contrary to the company’s and bullish analysts’ views, we believe that soon
       after these patents expire, there will be significant competitive pressures that will meaningfully
       impact Green Mountain’s profitability and growth. Netflix faces no patent risk though it, too, faces
       many competitive threats.

      There is an ongoing SEC investigation at Green Mountain and we think Einhorn’s presentation
       provides a detailed roadmap that will, in our opinion, likely lead the SEC to uncover various
       accounting shenanigans. Netflix faces no such risk.

   ď‚·   Green Mountain has spent $1.4 billion in cash on three richly-priced acquisitions over the past two
       years, which raises questions about organic growth and earnings quality. Einhorn notes: “The very

                                                    -8-
high allocations to Goodwill raise suspicion about subsequent earnings quality.” (See page 53 of his
         presentation.) In contrast, Netflix has made no acquisitions in recent years.

    ď‚·    Green Mountain inventories and cap ex have been growing much faster revenues: last year, on a 95%
         revenue increase, inventories rose 156% from $262 million to $672 million, while cap ex rose 125%
         from $126 million to $283 million. The result has been severely negative free cash flow and a
         significant worsening of the balance sheet over the past two years, which raises questions about how
         the company will fund its cap ex plans for next year. The trends at Netflix are precisely the opposite.

Netflix vs. Green Mountain: A Comparison of Balance Sheets and Cash Flows
The last bullet point warrants further discussion because, while the two companies have similar
income statements, their balance sheets and cash flows diverge massively. Netflix has a healthy net
cash position of $166 million, while Green Mountain has $561 million in net debt. And Netflix has
healthy operating cash flow, which substantially exceeds both net income and cap ex, resulting in
free cash flow of $201 million, whereas Green Mountain is the reverse, with free cash flow of minus
$282 million. This chart shows the data for both companies over the past 12 months:

                                              NFLX         GMCR
Cash & Cash Equiv*                             $366           $13
Debt                                           $200          $574
Net Cash (Debt)                                $166         ($561)
Operating Cash Flow                            $349            $1
Cap Ex**                                       $148          $283
Free Cash Flow                                 $201         ($282)
* For GMCR, excludes $28M of restricted cash
** For NFLX, cap ex includes "Acquisitions of DVD content library"
All figures are in millions, over the trailing 12 months

The balance sheet and cash flow numbers are critical because both companies are making large
investments to grow their businesses: in Netflix’s case, signing deals for streaming content and
growing internationally and, in Green Mountain’s case, primarily to “increase our portion pack
packaging” and “expand our physical plants.” Both companies (and stocks) are at risk if they run
into trouble financing these investments.

Given Netflix’s strong balance sheet and free cash flow, we think it’s highly likely that the company
will be able to fund its growth, even if it loses more subscribers than the company (and we) expect
(within reason). In contrast, Green Mountain is at much higher risk, both because of higher planned
expenses and also a far weaker balance sheet and cash flow statement.

As noted above, in last week’s earnings release, Green Mountain said “For fiscal 2012, we currently
expect to invest between $630.0 million to $700.0 million in capital expenditures to support the
Company’s future growth.” That’s a huge amount of money for a company that only had $201
million of net income last year and less than $1 million of operating cash flow.

Our question is, where are they going to get the money? They’ve guided to $2.55-$2.65 in EPS in
the next 12 months, but we are highly skeptical that the company will meet this guidance, and it
also excludes some very real cash expenses like “acquisition-related transaction expenses; legal and

                                                           -9-
accounting expenses related to the SEC inquiry and the Company’s pending litigation.” In addition,
the company’s balance sheet is consuming huge amounts of cash: due mainly to the rise in
inventories and, to a lesser extent, accounts receivable, operating cash flow over the last 12 months
was a mere $785,000 – basically zero. Nor was this an exception: in the prior year, the company
had $80 million in net income yet operating cash flow of minus $3 million. On top of this are
numerous richly priced acquisitions, which consumed $908 million in cash last year and $459
million the year before.

To summarize, over the last two years, Green Mountain has generated $281 million of net income,
yet lost $2 million of operating cash flow, plus spent $410 million on cap ex and another $1,367
million on acquisitions – a total cash burn of $1.8 billion! This chart shows the company’s
accelerating cash burn over the past three years:

                              GMCR ('09) GMCR ('10) GMCR ('11)
Operating Cash Flow                $38          ($3)        $1
Cap Ex                             $48        $126        $283
Free Cash Flow                    ($10)      ($129)      ($282)
Acquisitions                       $41        $459        $908
FCF Minus Acquisitions            ($51)      ($588)    ($1,190)

So how has Green Mountain funded these huge cash flow deficits? By using cash, taking on debt,
and issuing stock. Over the past two years, the company has seen its net cash position go from
+$164 million to -$561 million, a swing of $725 million, plus it’s raised $990 million by selling
stock, as this chart shows:

                              GMCR ('09) GMCR ('10) GMCR ('11)
Cash & Cash Equiv*                $242           $4       $13
Debt                               $78        $354       $574
Net Cash (Debt)                   $164       ($350)     ($561)
Issuance of Common Stock          $395           $9      $981
* Excludes restricted cash

In summary, we question how Green Mountain will fund its $630-$700 million cap ex plan over the
next 12 months. Even if one believes the midpoint of the company’s guidance of $2.60/share, this
only translates into $414 million of net income, plus the balance sheet is likely to continue
consuming cash. We think investors will not look kindly on more debt, nor issuing stock at
depressed prices, yet the company almost certainly will have to do one or the other.

Conclusion
We’re long Netflix because we think the bad news is out, we like the company’s balance sheet and
cash flows, and see few red flags. In contrast, with Green Mountain, we think there is much more
bad news to come, are very concerned about the company’s balance sheet and cash flows, and see
many red flags.




                                                -10-
T2 Accredited Fund, LP (the “Fund”) commenced operations on January 1, 1999. The Fund’s
investment objective is to achieve long-term after-tax capital appreciation commensurate with
moderate risk, primarily by investing with a long-term perspective in a concentrated portfolio of
U.S. stocks. In carrying out the Partnership’s investment objective, the Investment Manager, T2
Partners Management, LLC, seeks to buy stocks at a steep discount to intrinsic value such that
there is low risk of capital loss and significant upside potential. The primary focus of the
Investment Manager is on the long-term fortunes of the companies in the Partnership’s portfolio
or which are otherwise followed by the Investment Manager, relative to the prices of their stocks.

There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in the Fund’s portfolio at
the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities
discussed may not represent the Fund’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a
small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the
securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that
the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will
equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. All recommendations within
the preceding 12 months or applicable period are available upon request.

Performance results shown are for the T2 Accredited Fund, LP and are presented net of
management fees, brokerage commissions, administrative expenses, other operating expenses of
the Fund, and accrued performance allocation or incentive fees, if any. Net performance
includes the reinvestment of all dividends, interest, and capital gains. Performance for the most
recent month is an estimate.

The fee schedule for the Investment Manager includes a 1.5% annual management fee and a 20%
incentive fee allocation. For periods prior to June 1, 2004, the Investment Manager’s fee
schedule included a 1% annual management fee and a 20% incentive fee allocation, subject to a
10% “hurdle” rate. In practice, the incentive fee is “earned” on an annual, not monthly, basis or
upon a withdrawal from the Fund. Because some investors may have different fee arrangements
and depending on the timing of a specific investment, net performance for an individual investor
may vary from the net performance as stated herein.

The return of the S&P 500 and other indices are included in the presentation. The volatility of
these indices may be materially different from the volatility in the Fund. In addition, the Fund’s
holdings differ significantly from the securities that comprise the indices. The indices have not
been selected to represent appropriate benchmarks to compare an investor’s performance, but
rather are disclosed to allow for comparison of the investor’s performance to that of certain well-
known and widely recognized indices. You cannot invest directly in these indices.

Past results are no guarantee of future results and no representation is made that an investor will
or is likely to achieve results similar to those shown. All investments involve risk including the
loss of principal. This document is confidential and may not be distributed without the consent
of the Investment Manager and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer
to purchase any security or investment product. Any such offer or solicitation may only be made
by means of delivery of an approved confidential offering memorandum.




                                               -11-

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

2009 Real Gdp
2009 Real Gdp2009 Real Gdp
2009 Real Gdpguestdbe479
 
Deck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual OutlookDeck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual OutlookLenderJason
 
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual OutlookWells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual OutlookTom Cryer
 
Wheres the-money-in-local-media
Wheres the-money-in-local-mediaWheres the-money-in-local-media
Wheres the-money-in-local-mediaMediative
 
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookRecent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
 
March customer seminar
March customer seminarMarch customer seminar
March customer seminarWeichert Realtors
 
Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...
Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...
Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...Manya Mohan
 
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research Approved
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research Approved2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research Approved
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research ApprovedThais Batista
 
Rayola Dougher - Annual Meeting
Rayola Dougher - Annual MeetingRayola Dougher - Annual Meeting
Rayola Dougher - Annual MeetingAIPRO
 
A few big winners, many losers
A few big winners, many losersA few big winners, many losers
A few big winners, many losersBoyboy cute
 
2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan
2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan 2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan
2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan Enel S.p.A.
 
Earnings Release 2Q12
Earnings Release 2Q12Earnings Release 2Q12
Earnings Release 2Q12Multiplus
 
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
csx  2008_Citigroup Conferencecsx  2008_Citigroup Conference
csx 2008_Citigroup Conferencefinance27
 
Conference call presentation 4 q08 results
Conference call presentation   4 q08 resultsConference call presentation   4 q08 results
Conference call presentation 4 q08 resultsBraskem_RI
 
1Q10 Earnings Results Presentation
1Q10 Earnings Results Presentation1Q10 Earnings Results Presentation
1Q10 Earnings Results PresentationGafisa RI !
 

Was ist angesagt? (17)

2009 Real Gdp
2009 Real Gdp2009 Real Gdp
2009 Real Gdp
 
Earnings Release Report 3Q10
Earnings Release Report 3Q10Earnings Release Report 3Q10
Earnings Release Report 3Q10
 
Deck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual OutlookDeck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual Outlook
 
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual OutlookWells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
 
Wheres the-money-in-local-media
Wheres the-money-in-local-mediaWheres the-money-in-local-media
Wheres the-money-in-local-media
 
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookRecent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
 
March customer seminar
March customer seminarMarch customer seminar
March customer seminar
 
Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...
Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...
Conco Phillips- Presentations & Conference Calls Howard Weil Annual Energy Co...
 
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research Approved
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research Approved2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research Approved
2016_10_Australia Property Thematic Research Approved
 
Rayola Dougher - Annual Meeting
Rayola Dougher - Annual MeetingRayola Dougher - Annual Meeting
Rayola Dougher - Annual Meeting
 
A few big winners, many losers
A few big winners, many losersA few big winners, many losers
A few big winners, many losers
 
2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan
2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan 2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan
2011 Results 2012-2016 Plan
 
Earnings Release 2Q12
Earnings Release 2Q12Earnings Release 2Q12
Earnings Release 2Q12
 
Market According to Mercer October 2012
Market According to Mercer October 2012Market According to Mercer October 2012
Market According to Mercer October 2012
 
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
csx  2008_Citigroup Conferencecsx  2008_Citigroup Conference
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
 
Conference call presentation 4 q08 results
Conference call presentation   4 q08 resultsConference call presentation   4 q08 results
Conference call presentation 4 q08 results
 
1Q10 Earnings Results Presentation
1Q10 Earnings Results Presentation1Q10 Earnings Results Presentation
1Q10 Earnings Results Presentation
 

Andere mochten auch

Oei 2014-12
Oei 2014-12Oei 2014-12
Oei 2014-12Frank Ragol
 
Citigrioup 3 q 2011
Citigrioup 3 q 2011Citigrioup 3 q 2011
Citigrioup 3 q 2011Frank Ragol
 
Swmcef dec 2013_ucits_fund
Swmcef dec 2013_ucits_fundSwmcef dec 2013_ucits_fund
Swmcef dec 2013_ucits_fundFrank Ragol
 
Hussman wine countryconference 130405
Hussman wine countryconference 130405Hussman wine countryconference 130405
Hussman wine countryconference 130405Frank Ragol
 
Yhoo q311 earningspresentationfinal
Yhoo q311 earningspresentationfinalYhoo q311 earningspresentationfinal
Yhoo q311 earningspresentationfinalFrank Ragol
 
Zqk q3 2011_form_10-q_final
Zqk q3 2011_form_10-q_finalZqk q3 2011_form_10-q_final
Zqk q3 2011_form_10-q_finalFrank Ragol
 
Swan aug-15
Swan aug-15Swan aug-15
Swan aug-15Frank Ragol
 

Andere mochten auch (7)

Oei 2014-12
Oei 2014-12Oei 2014-12
Oei 2014-12
 
Citigrioup 3 q 2011
Citigrioup 3 q 2011Citigrioup 3 q 2011
Citigrioup 3 q 2011
 
Swmcef dec 2013_ucits_fund
Swmcef dec 2013_ucits_fundSwmcef dec 2013_ucits_fund
Swmcef dec 2013_ucits_fund
 
Hussman wine countryconference 130405
Hussman wine countryconference 130405Hussman wine countryconference 130405
Hussman wine countryconference 130405
 
Yhoo q311 earningspresentationfinal
Yhoo q311 earningspresentationfinalYhoo q311 earningspresentationfinal
Yhoo q311 earningspresentationfinal
 
Zqk q3 2011_form_10-q_final
Zqk q3 2011_form_10-q_finalZqk q3 2011_form_10-q_final
Zqk q3 2011_form_10-q_final
 
Swan aug-15
Swan aug-15Swan aug-15
Swan aug-15
 

Ă„hnlich wie Accredited fund-letter-to-investors-nov-11

T2 annual letter 2011
T2 annual letter 2011T2 annual letter 2011
T2 annual letter 2011Frank Ragol
 
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for India
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaThe Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for India
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaAshutosh Bhargava
 
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment Gap
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapIndian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment Gap
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
 
Indian Economy: the curious case of household savings-investment gap
Indian Economy:   the curious case of household savings-investment gapIndian Economy:   the curious case of household savings-investment gap
Indian Economy: the curious case of household savings-investment gapAshutosh Bhargava
 
Before the open february 8 2017
Before the open february 8 2017Before the open february 8 2017
Before the open february 8 2017John Pendrith
 
Before the open February 8 2017
Before the open February 8 2017Before the open February 8 2017
Before the open February 8 2017John Pendrith
 
Hyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly CommentaryHyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly Commentaryhyrejam
 
spectra energy Q308Transcript
spectra energy Q308Transcriptspectra energy Q308Transcript
spectra energy Q308Transcriptfinance49
 
Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment 02 06 2015
Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment  02 06 2015Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment  02 06 2015
Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment 02 06 2015Bernard Swords
 
Before the open February 9 2017
Before the open February 9 2017Before the open February 9 2017
Before the open February 9 2017John Pendrith
 
Silicon valley fund - October Update
Silicon valley fund - October UpdateSilicon valley fund - October Update
Silicon valley fund - October UpdateThanaa Makdsi
 
September 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investments
September 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investmentsSeptember 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investments
September 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investmentsFiner Wealth Management, Inc.
 
2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report
2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report
2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific ReportHindenburg Research
 
3Q11 Results Conference Call
3Q11 Results Conference Call3Q11 Results Conference Call
3Q11 Results Conference CallKianne Paganini
 
Before the Open March 8 2017
Before the Open March 8 2017Before the Open March 8 2017
Before the Open March 8 2017John Pendrith
 
Spring '18 Portfolio Performance
Spring '18 Portfolio PerformanceSpring '18 Portfolio Performance
Spring '18 Portfolio PerformanceMike Roma
 

Ă„hnlich wie Accredited fund-letter-to-investors-nov-11 (20)

T2 annual letter 2011
T2 annual letter 2011T2 annual letter 2011
T2 annual letter 2011
 
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for India
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaThe Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for India
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for India
 
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment Gap
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapIndian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment Gap
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment Gap
 
Indian Economy: the curious case of household savings-investment gap
Indian Economy:   the curious case of household savings-investment gapIndian Economy:   the curious case of household savings-investment gap
Indian Economy: the curious case of household savings-investment gap
 
Before the open february 8 2017
Before the open february 8 2017Before the open february 8 2017
Before the open february 8 2017
 
Before the open February 8 2017
Before the open February 8 2017Before the open February 8 2017
Before the open February 8 2017
 
Hyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly CommentaryHyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly Commentary
 
Weekly Economic Update August 6 2012
Weekly Economic Update August 6 2012Weekly Economic Update August 6 2012
Weekly Economic Update August 6 2012
 
Cgg presentation-2019 q1- eng
Cgg presentation-2019 q1- engCgg presentation-2019 q1- eng
Cgg presentation-2019 q1- eng
 
spectra energy Q308Transcript
spectra energy Q308Transcriptspectra energy Q308Transcript
spectra energy Q308Transcript
 
Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment 02 06 2015
Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment  02 06 2015Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment  02 06 2015
Goodbody_Market Pulse Weekly Investment 02 06 2015
 
Before the open February 9 2017
Before the open February 9 2017Before the open February 9 2017
Before the open February 9 2017
 
Silicon valley fund - October Update
Silicon valley fund - October UpdateSilicon valley fund - October Update
Silicon valley fund - October Update
 
September 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investments
September 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investmentsSeptember 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investments
September 17 2012 weekly economic update major league investments
 
RJ
RJRJ
RJ
 
2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report
2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report
2020.02.24 Roth New Pacific Report
 
3Q11 Results Conference Call
3Q11 Results Conference Call3Q11 Results Conference Call
3Q11 Results Conference Call
 
Anchor Capital presentation
Anchor Capital presentationAnchor Capital presentation
Anchor Capital presentation
 
Before the Open March 8 2017
Before the Open March 8 2017Before the Open March 8 2017
Before the Open March 8 2017
 
Spring '18 Portfolio Performance
Spring '18 Portfolio PerformanceSpring '18 Portfolio Performance
Spring '18 Portfolio Performance
 

Mehr von Frank Ragol

Tulip a eur_en
Tulip a eur_enTulip a eur_en
Tulip a eur_enFrank Ragol
 
Oei feb-16
Oei feb-16Oei feb-16
Oei feb-16Frank Ragol
 
Q1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenueQ1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenueFrank Ragol
 
Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15Frank Ragol
 
Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15Frank Ragol
 
Gdc FI-mayo-2015
Gdc FI-mayo-2015Gdc FI-mayo-2015
Gdc FI-mayo-2015Frank Ragol
 
Oei apr-15
Oei apr-15Oei apr-15
Oei apr-15Frank Ragol
 
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_330638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3Frank Ragol
 
Resultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembre
Resultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembreResultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembre
Resultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembreFrank Ragol
 
Bass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceBass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceFrank Ragol
 
Greif inc (spruce point capital)
Greif inc (spruce point capital)Greif inc (spruce point capital)
Greif inc (spruce point capital)Frank Ragol
 
Third point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoi
Third point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoiThird point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoi
Third point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoiFrank Ragol
 
Skagen global noviembre 14
Skagen global noviembre 14Skagen global noviembre 14
Skagen global noviembre 14Frank Ragol
 
Lessons of oil by howard marks
Lessons of oil by howard marksLessons of oil by howard marks
Lessons of oil by howard marksFrank Ragol
 
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014Frank Ragol
 
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014Frank Ragol
 
Gmo qtly letter_3q14_full
Gmo qtly letter_3q14_fullGmo qtly letter_3q14_full
Gmo qtly letter_3q14_fullFrank Ragol
 
Estadistica anual definitiva 2013
Estadistica anual definitiva 2013Estadistica anual definitiva 2013
Estadistica anual definitiva 2013Frank Ragol
 
Enagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacion
Enagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacionEnagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacion
Enagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacionFrank Ragol
 
2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-e
2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-e2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-e
2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-eFrank Ragol
 

Mehr von Frank Ragol (20)

Tulip a eur_en
Tulip a eur_enTulip a eur_en
Tulip a eur_en
 
Oei feb-16
Oei feb-16Oei feb-16
Oei feb-16
 
Q1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenueQ1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenue
 
Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15
 
Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15Oei dec-15
Oei dec-15
 
Gdc FI-mayo-2015
Gdc FI-mayo-2015Gdc FI-mayo-2015
Gdc FI-mayo-2015
 
Oei apr-15
Oei apr-15Oei apr-15
Oei apr-15
 
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_330638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3
 
Resultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembre
Resultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembreResultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembre
Resultados consolidados banca en españa a 30 septiembre
 
Bass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceBass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonance
 
Greif inc (spruce point capital)
Greif inc (spruce point capital)Greif inc (spruce point capital)
Greif inc (spruce point capital)
 
Third point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoi
Third point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoiThird point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoi
Third point-q4-2014-investor-letter-tpoi
 
Skagen global noviembre 14
Skagen global noviembre 14Skagen global noviembre 14
Skagen global noviembre 14
 
Lessons of oil by howard marks
Lessons of oil by howard marksLessons of oil by howard marks
Lessons of oil by howard marks
 
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
 
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014Odey absolute return octubre 2014
Odey absolute return octubre 2014
 
Gmo qtly letter_3q14_full
Gmo qtly letter_3q14_fullGmo qtly letter_3q14_full
Gmo qtly letter_3q14_full
 
Estadistica anual definitiva 2013
Estadistica anual definitiva 2013Estadistica anual definitiva 2013
Estadistica anual definitiva 2013
 
Enagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacion
Enagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacionEnagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacion
Enagas resultados 3 t 2014 presentacion
 
2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-e
2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-e2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-e
2014.10 ethenea-market-commentary-ethna-aktiv-e
 

KĂĽrzlich hochgeladen

0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdfRenandantas16
 
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756dollysharma2066
 
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...Paul Menig
 
Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...
Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...
Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...Roland Driesen
 
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023Neil Kimberley
 
KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...
KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...
KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...Any kyc Account
 
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan CommunicationsPharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communicationskarancommunications
 
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 MayIt will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 MayNZSG
 
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...lizamodels9
 
Dr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdf
Dr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdfDr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdf
Dr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdfAdmir Softic
 
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st CenturyFamous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Centuryrwgiffor
 
Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...
Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...
Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...amitlee9823
 
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best ServicesMysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best ServicesDipal Arora
 
HONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael Hawkins
HONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael HawkinsHONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael Hawkins
HONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael HawkinsMichael W. Hawkins
 
Forklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
Forklift Operations: Safety through CartoonsForklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
Forklift Operations: Safety through CartoonsForklift Trucks in Minnesota
 
Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...anilsa9823
 
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...amitlee9823
 
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756dollysharma2066
 
Organizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with CultureOrganizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with CultureSeta Wicaksana
 

KĂĽrzlich hochgeladen (20)

0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
0183760ssssssssssssssssssssssssssss00101011 (27).pdf
 
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Mahipalpur Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
 
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
 
Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...
Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...
Boost the utilization of your HCL environment by reevaluating use cases and f...
 
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
Mondelez State of Snacking and Future Trends 2023
 
KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...
KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...
KYC-Verified Accounts: Helping Companies Handle Challenging Regulatory Enviro...
 
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan CommunicationsPharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
 
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 MayIt will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
 
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
 
Dr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdf
Dr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdfDr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdf
Dr. Admir Softic_ presentation_Green Club_ENG.pdf
 
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st CenturyFamous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
 
Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...
Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...
Call Girls Electronic City Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Servi...
 
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best ServicesMysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
 
unwanted pregnancy Kit [+918133066128] Abortion Pills IN Dubai UAE Abudhabi
unwanted pregnancy Kit [+918133066128] Abortion Pills IN Dubai UAE Abudhabiunwanted pregnancy Kit [+918133066128] Abortion Pills IN Dubai UAE Abudhabi
unwanted pregnancy Kit [+918133066128] Abortion Pills IN Dubai UAE Abudhabi
 
HONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael Hawkins
HONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael HawkinsHONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael Hawkins
HONOR Veterans Event Keynote by Michael Hawkins
 
Forklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
Forklift Operations: Safety through CartoonsForklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
Forklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
 
Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow đź’‹ Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
 
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call đź‘— 7737669865 đź‘— Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
 
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
 
Organizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with CultureOrganizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with Culture
 

Accredited fund-letter-to-investors-nov-11

  • 1. Whitney R. Tilson and Glenn H. Tongue phone: 212 386 7160 Managing Partners fax: 240 368 0299 www.T2PartnersLLC.com December 1, 2011 Dear Partner, Our fund fell 0.6% in November vs. -0.2% for the S&P 500, +1.2% for the Dow and -2.3% for the Nasdaq. Year to date, it’s down 25.0% vs. +1.1% for the S&P 500, +6.7% for the Dow and -0.5% for the Nasdaq. On the long side, our three winners of note were Grupo Prisa (B shares) (18.9%), Iridium (stock 11.8% and warrants 4.0%), and AB InBev (8.2%). These gains were more than offset by Netflix (-21.4%), Sears Canada (-16.7%), Citigroup (-13.0%), Goldman Sachs (-12.5%), and dELiA*s (-10.7%). Our short book did well during the month and is now in the black on the year (meaning that all of our losses are on the long side). Our biggest winners in November were Career Education (-56.2%), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (-19.4%), Nokia (-14.0%), Lululemon (-12.0%), ITT Educational Services (-11.3%), and Salesforce.com (-11.1%). Our only loser of note was InterOil (+15.1%). Tax Estimates Tax estimates through the end of October will soon be available, so if you would like to receive yours please email or call Kelli at KAlires@T2PartnersLLC.com or (212) 386-7160. Iridium Iridium’s stock jumped after the company reported very strong earnings on November 8th. The company soundly beat analysts’ estimates and its own guidance for revenue, margins, EBITDA, and subscriber growth, with particular strength in both the machine-to-machine and legacy commercial voice product lines. Operational EBITDA margin hit a new high of 53.5% and management raised its 2011 outlook for subscriber growth (up 25% year over year) and operational EBITDA (up 20% year-over-year to ~$190 million). As an added bonus, the company said it would pay “negligible cash taxes from 2011 to approximately 2020.” We think this earnings report should assuage the concerns we’ve heard from investors and analysts, and are optimistic that it will prove to be a turning point for the stock, which we believe is deeply undervalued. Grupo Prisa Grupo Prisa received a boost in November when Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim acquired a 3.2% stake (see article in Appendix A). We think the stock will receive another boost in the next few weeks when the company announces that it has successfully refinanced its debt. The GM Building, 767 Fifth Avenue, 18th Floor, New York, NY 10153
  • 2. As background, this is what we wrote in our September letter: Spain and Portugal are going through a crisis similar to the one the U.S. went through in late 2008, so it’s not surprising that the stock of a company with 77% of its revenues in these two countries is suffering. It’s also not surprising that the company’s operating performance has been affected by the deep recession in its primary markets, though the company is holding up remarkably well in light of this: in the first half of 2011, revenues were down only 1.2%, adjusted EBITDA rose 3.6%, and the company’s restructuring and cost-cutting is on track. Prisa, however, needs to refinance its debt to give it breathing room to get through the current crisis. Our discussion with management and others – plus our own experience – leads us to have a high degree of confidence that Prisa will be able to do so successfully, but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on the stock. Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters A couple of weeks ago we sent you an article we published entitled “Why We’re Long Netflix and Short Green Mountain Coffee Roasters,” which is attached in Appendix B. Since then, both stocks have moved against us, making them even more attractive in our opinion. InterOil Though we haven’t discussed it in some time, InterOil remains one of our largest short positions. Our bearish thesis is being validated as the company continues to miss deadlines on its unrealistic promises, which will likely never be fulfilled, yet the company still has a $2.6 billion market cap. We believe intrinsic value is zero. The government of Papua New Guinea appears to finally be waking up to this gigantic promotion because it’s demanded that InterOil find an “internationally-recognized LNG [liquefied natural gas] operating partner,” which is highly unlikely ever to occur, for reasons that are well articulated in this article, and will certainly not happen anytime in the near future. InterOil bulls are hoping for a partnership similar to the one between Oil Search and Exxon Mobil, but this deal took five years to reach final investment decision (FID). Real energy companies do not quickly make multi-billion dollar commitments in one of the world’s poorest, most corrupt countries, so even if InterOil has discovered a major natural gas field (which we highly doubt), it will take years to sign a deal with an “internationally-recognized LNG operating partner,” yet InterOil has promised this in the very near future. Here is a laundry list of what InterOil has promised by year-end: - Secure FID with Mitsui for condensate stripping plant (CSP) - Secure FEED [front-end engineering design] and FID with Energy World Corp. for modular LNG plant - Secure FEED and FID with Flex LNG on floating LNG plant - Sign definitive agreement with Noble Group for offtake of 1MTPA [million tons per annum] - Secure “internationally-recognized LNG operating partner” - Sign additional Heads of Agreement for 1-2MTPA offtake -2-
  • 3. With less than a month to go in the year, the only one of these that IOC has delivered on is the last one, announcing recently that it had signed “a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with Gunvor Singapore Pte. Ltd., for the supply of one million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG).” However, Gunvor, according to Wikipedia, has unsavory ties: Following the major Wikileaks release of US State Department cables in November 2010, it was reported by the London Daily Telegraph[17] that the wealth of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is linked to a "secretive Swiss-based oil trading firm" called Gunvor. It said that John Beyrle, the United States Ambassador to the Russian Federation stated that close connections exist between Gunvor and the Russian Government and that he reported: "its secretive ownership is rumoured to include prime minister Putin." The whole point of an offtake agreement is so lenders will provide the billions of dollars that this project would cost – but we question whether anyone would lend such a large amount of money against an agreement with a firm like Gunvor. For the most in-depth expose of InterOil, see this article, which links to 12 pages starting here. For a more recent take, see this article. Conclusion Thank you for your continued confidence in us and the fund. As always, we welcome your comments or questions, so please don’t hesitate to call us at (212) 386-7160. Sincerely yours, Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue The unaudited return for the T2 Accredited Fund versus major benchmarks (including reinvested dividends) is: November Year-to-Date Since Inception T2 Accredited Fund – net -0.6% -25.0% 113.9% S&P 500 -0.2% 1.1% 27.9% Dow 1.2% 6.7% 76.8% NASDAQ -2.3% -0.5% 24.2% Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please refer to the disclosure section at the end of this letter. The T2 Accredited Fund was launched on 7/1/04. -3-
  • 4. T2 Accredited Fund Performance (Net) Since Inception 200 180 160 140 120 100 (%) 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 T2 Accredited Fund S&P 500 T2 Accredited Fund Monthly Performance (Net) Since Inception 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P T2 S&P AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 AF 500 January 7.8 4.1 -6.3 -5.0 4.4 3.6 -1.8 -1.5 -5.5 -2.6 4.7 1.8 1.1 -2.4 1.9 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.9 -5.9 -3.6 -8.4 -1.6 -3.6 -2.8 2.4 February -2.9 -3.1 6.2 -1.9 -0.6 -9.2 -1.1 -2.0 2.9 -1.6 7.0 1.5 2.1 2.0 -3.1 0.2 -3.3 -2.1 -6.9 -3.3 -8.9 -10.8 7.3 3.1 4.1 3.4 March 4.1 4.0 10.3 9.8 -2.6 -6.4 3.0 3.7 1.4 0.9 3.9 -1.5 3.9 -1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.8 1.1 -2.3 -0.5 2.9 9.0 4.6 6.0 -4.1 0.0 April 2.1 3.7 -5.1 -3.0 5.1 7.8 -0.2 -6.0 10.5 8.2 2.4 -1.5 0.6 -1.9 2.2 1.4 4.4 4.6 -0.9 4.9 20.1 9.6 -2.1 1.6 1.9 3.0 May -5.7 -2.5 -2.8 -2.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 -0.8 6.6 5.3 -1.4 1.4 -2.6 3.2 1.8 -2.9 2.5 3.3 7.9 1.2 8.1 5.5 -2.6 -8.0 -1.9 -1.1 June 2.2 5.8 4.1 2.4 4.6 -2.4 -7.3 -7.1 2.9 1.3 0.1 1.9 -3.1 0.1 -0.2 0.2 -3.0 -1.5 -1.2 -8.4 -5.0 0.2 4.5 -5.2 -2.4 -1.7 July -0.7 -3.2 -3.6 -1.6 -1.1 -1.0 -5.0 -7.9 2.3 1.7 4.6 -3.4 0.5 3.7 -0.9 0.7 -5.4 -3.0 -2.5 -0.9 6.8 7.6 3.5 7.0 -4.6 -2.0 August 4.1 -0.4 5.4 6.1 2.5 -6.3 -4.3 0.5 0.4 1.9 -0.9 0.4 -3.2 -1.0 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.5 -3.3 1.3 6.3 3.6 -1.5 -4.5 -13.9 -5.4 September -3.3 -2.7 -7.2 -5.3 -6.1 -8.1 -5.4 -10.9 1.7 -1.0 -1.6 1.1 -1.5 0.8 5.0 2.6 -1.1 3.6 15.9 -9.1 5.9 3.7 1.7 8.9 -9.3 -7.0 October 8.1 6.4 -4.5 -0.3 -0.8 1.9 2.8 8.8 6.2 5.6 -0.4 1.5 3.5 -1.6 6.3 3.5 8.2 1.7 -12.5 -16.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 3.8 7.0 10.9 November 2.8 2.0 -1.5 -7.9 2.3 7.6 4.1 5.8 2.2 0.8 0.8 4.0 3.1 3.7 1.9 1.7 -3.6 -4.2 -8.9 -7.1 -1.2 6.0 -1.9 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 December 9.8 5.9 2.3 0.5 6.5 0.9 -7.4 -5.8 -0.4 5.3 -0.2 3.4 -1.3 0.0 1.4 1.4 -4.3 -0.7 -4.0 1.1 5.5 1.9 0.5 6.7 YTD 31.0 21.0 -4.5 -9.1 16.5 -11.9 -22.2 -22.1 35.1 28.6 20.6 10.9 2.6 4.9 25.2 15.8 -3.2 5.5 -18.1 -37.0 37.1 26.5 10.5 15.1 -25.0 1.1 TOTAL Note: Returns in 2001, 2003, and 2009 reflect the benefit of the high-water mark, assuming an investor at inception. -4-
  • 5. Appendix A ď‚· WSJ, DEALS & DEAL MAKERS ď‚· NOVEMBER 18, 2011, 9:50 A.M. ET Slim Buys Stake in Spain's El Pais By DAVID ROMAN And ANA GARCIA MADRID—A company owned by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim has acquired a 3.2% stake in Spain's media group Promotora de Informaciones SA, in an unexpected move into one of the economies at the forefront of the euro zone's debt crisis. Mr. Slim, one of the world's richest men, bought the stake through Inmobiliaria Carso SA de CV, a firm which he controls, according to regulatory filings released Friday. Mr. Slim has also used Carso to build up a 8.1% stake in New York Times Co., the publisher of the New York-based daily. Inmobiliaria Carso didn't disclose how much it paid for the stake. At current market prices, it is worth €12.5 million (about $17 million). The shares of Prisa, as the Spanish company is known, jumped on the news of Mr. Slim's purchase, and they last traded up 13% at €0.85, valuing the entire company at €383.2 million. For Madrid-based Prisa, the country's largest media group, Mr. Slim's move is a much-needed show of backing. The company, owner of Spain's best-selling newspaper El Pais, has been restructuring and shedding assets in recent years as it seeks to reduce its heavy debt load. As in the case of the New York Times Co., Prisa's share price has struggled recently. El Pais has suffered a dip in sales, as well as a revenue squeeze owing to lower advertising. El Pais sells around 370,000 newspapers a day. Late last year, Prisa announced a plan to lay off 2,500 staff through the first quarter of 2012. This came after U.S. investment fund Liberty Acquisition Holdings Corp. bought a majority stake in the firm for some €650 million. This is Mr. Slim's first foray in Spain's media sector, which until recently was flushed with cash owing to the country's long-running property bubble. The sector is now in dire straits because large corporate and government advertisers have cut down on investments sharply, just as Internet competition and a drop in spending by highly indebted households has lowered demand for newspapers. Prisa, haunted by a series of bad investments, has been Spain's largest media company for decades. Besides El Pais, it also owns Cadena Ser, Spain's largest radio network by audience, and the profitable publisher Santillana, which has a large foothold in Latin America. -5-
  • 6. Appendix B Why We’re Long Netflix and Short Green Mountain Coffee Roasters November 13, 2011 T2 Partners LLC The GM Building 767 Fifth Avenue, 18th Floor New York, NY 10153 (212) 386-7160 Info@T2PartnersLLC.com DISCLAIMER: THIS LETTER IS FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHALL NOT BE CONSTRUED TO CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOTHING CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL CONSTITUTE A SOLICITATION, RECOMMENDATION OR ENDORSEMENT TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY OR PRIVATE FUND MANAGED BY T2 PARTNERS. SUCH AN OFFER WILL BE MADE ONLY BY AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM, A COPY OF WHICH IS AVAILABLE TO QUALIFYING POTENTIAL INVESTORS UPON REQUEST. AN INVESTMENT IN A PRIVATE FUND IS NOT APPROPRIATE OR SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES THE RISK OF LOSS. INVESTMENT FUNDS MANAGED BY T2 PARTNERS OWN CALLS AND ARE LONG THE STOCK OF NETFLIX AND OWN PUTS AND ARE SHORT THE STOCK OF GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE ROASTERS. WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS OF THE INFORMATION, TEXT, GRAPHICS OR OTHER ITEMS CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION. WE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ALL LIABILITY FOR ERRORS OR OMISSIONS IN, OR THE MISUSE OR MISINTERPRETATION OF, ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION. T2 PARTNERS MANAGEMENT LP IS A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. A COPY OF T2’S DISCLOSURE STATEMENT (PART II OF FORM ADV), WHICH CONTAINS MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ADVISOR, INCLUDING ITS INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND OBJECTIVES, CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING (212) 386-7160. -6-
  • 7. Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters are former market darlings whose stocks have collapsed in recent months, wiping out a combined $23.2 billion in market capitalization from their peaks ($11.7 and $11.5 billion, respectively). By many metrics, both stocks appear cheap and the terrible headlines are attractive to value investors like us, who like to buy when others are selling in a panic. For example, BP was one of our biggest winners in 2010 (click here to read our analysis at the time). The company, its CEO and the stock were all universally hated, with endless negative headlines (similar to Netflix today), which provided a wonderful opportunity to buy the stock far below its intrinsic value. We love situations like this – as long as we’re convinced that there’s a good company and a cheap stock once one cuts through all of the noise. So are Netflix and Green Mountain similar opportunities today? Yes and no. We’ve analyzed both companies carefully and concluded that Netflix is an attractive investment at today’s price, so funds we manage own the stock, but Green Mountain isn’t, we remain short it. Allow us to explain why. Similarities The stocks of both Netflix and Green Mountain over the past three months have suffered similar declines, as this chart shows: In addition, the companies are remarkably similar in revenues and profitability over the past 12 months: NFLX GMCR Revenues $2,925 $2,651 Operating Income $393 $369 Net Income $238 $201 Operating Margin 13.4% 13.9% Net Margin 8.1% 7.6% All figures are in millions, over the trailing 12 months Yet here the similarities end. Let’s take a look at both companies. -7-
  • 8. Netflix When Netflix fell 35% in one day last month to under $80, we purchased it aggressively, not as a short-term trade, but with a multi-year horizon. Over the next few quarters, the company will likely lose money as it invests in international growth and struggles to overcomes its missteps over the past few months. Ultimately, however, we think Netflix is an excellent company and that the market has overreacted to all of the recent negative news, thereby providing us the chance to own it at a cheap price, for reasons we discussed in our October letter to investors. Green Mountain In contrast, we are not only still short Green Mountain’s stock, but it remains our largest short position, even after last Thursday’s 40% decline. Our reasons are superbly articulated in the 110- slide presentation that Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn gave on the company at the Value Investing Congress last month. Even if you don’t have a position in the stock, it’s worth studying as a brilliant piece of analytical work – and it’s a must-read if you have a position. Although we were already short Green Mountain, after seeing Einhorn’s presentation we concluded that it was an even better short than we realized and increased the size of our investment, which has paid off handsomely. There’s a saying that pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered, so why don’t we cover our short and take our profits? After all, the stock, at $43.71, is now trading at “only” 16.8x the midpoint of the company’s guidance for next year, and at 12.5x Einhorn’s estimate of the company’s long-term earnings power of $3.50 (see page 66 of his presentation). The answer is that we think only the first shoe has dropped and there are more to come. Netflix vs. Green Mountain Here is a summary of our concerns about Green Mountain, with a comparison to Netflix: ď‚· Green Mountain gave strong guidance for next quarter and year, which we think, in light of the company’s performance last quarter, is too high and will need to be reset downward. Analysts remain bullish. In contrast, Netflix has given very poor – and, we believe, conservative – guidance that we think the company can exceed, and analysts are significantly more bearish. ď‚· Though it has similar revenues and profits, Green Mountain’s market cap, at $7.0 billion, is nearly 50% higher than Netflix’s $4.7 billion, which means there’s more downside and less likelihood of an acquisition. ď‚· Green Mountain’s business is highly dependent on two key patents, both of which expire on September 16, 2012. Contrary to the company’s and bullish analysts’ views, we believe that soon after these patents expire, there will be significant competitive pressures that will meaningfully impact Green Mountain’s profitability and growth. Netflix faces no patent risk though it, too, faces many competitive threats. ď‚· There is an ongoing SEC investigation at Green Mountain and we think Einhorn’s presentation provides a detailed roadmap that will, in our opinion, likely lead the SEC to uncover various accounting shenanigans. Netflix faces no such risk. ď‚· Green Mountain has spent $1.4 billion in cash on three richly-priced acquisitions over the past two years, which raises questions about organic growth and earnings quality. Einhorn notes: “The very -8-
  • 9. high allocations to Goodwill raise suspicion about subsequent earnings quality.” (See page 53 of his presentation.) In contrast, Netflix has made no acquisitions in recent years. ď‚· Green Mountain inventories and cap ex have been growing much faster revenues: last year, on a 95% revenue increase, inventories rose 156% from $262 million to $672 million, while cap ex rose 125% from $126 million to $283 million. The result has been severely negative free cash flow and a significant worsening of the balance sheet over the past two years, which raises questions about how the company will fund its cap ex plans for next year. The trends at Netflix are precisely the opposite. Netflix vs. Green Mountain: A Comparison of Balance Sheets and Cash Flows The last bullet point warrants further discussion because, while the two companies have similar income statements, their balance sheets and cash flows diverge massively. Netflix has a healthy net cash position of $166 million, while Green Mountain has $561 million in net debt. And Netflix has healthy operating cash flow, which substantially exceeds both net income and cap ex, resulting in free cash flow of $201 million, whereas Green Mountain is the reverse, with free cash flow of minus $282 million. This chart shows the data for both companies over the past 12 months: NFLX GMCR Cash & Cash Equiv* $366 $13 Debt $200 $574 Net Cash (Debt) $166 ($561) Operating Cash Flow $349 $1 Cap Ex** $148 $283 Free Cash Flow $201 ($282) * For GMCR, excludes $28M of restricted cash ** For NFLX, cap ex includes "Acquisitions of DVD content library" All figures are in millions, over the trailing 12 months The balance sheet and cash flow numbers are critical because both companies are making large investments to grow their businesses: in Netflix’s case, signing deals for streaming content and growing internationally and, in Green Mountain’s case, primarily to “increase our portion pack packaging” and “expand our physical plants.” Both companies (and stocks) are at risk if they run into trouble financing these investments. Given Netflix’s strong balance sheet and free cash flow, we think it’s highly likely that the company will be able to fund its growth, even if it loses more subscribers than the company (and we) expect (within reason). In contrast, Green Mountain is at much higher risk, both because of higher planned expenses and also a far weaker balance sheet and cash flow statement. As noted above, in last week’s earnings release, Green Mountain said “For fiscal 2012, we currently expect to invest between $630.0 million to $700.0 million in capital expenditures to support the Company’s future growth.” That’s a huge amount of money for a company that only had $201 million of net income last year and less than $1 million of operating cash flow. Our question is, where are they going to get the money? They’ve guided to $2.55-$2.65 in EPS in the next 12 months, but we are highly skeptical that the company will meet this guidance, and it also excludes some very real cash expenses like “acquisition-related transaction expenses; legal and -9-
  • 10. accounting expenses related to the SEC inquiry and the Company’s pending litigation.” In addition, the company’s balance sheet is consuming huge amounts of cash: due mainly to the rise in inventories and, to a lesser extent, accounts receivable, operating cash flow over the last 12 months was a mere $785,000 – basically zero. Nor was this an exception: in the prior year, the company had $80 million in net income yet operating cash flow of minus $3 million. On top of this are numerous richly priced acquisitions, which consumed $908 million in cash last year and $459 million the year before. To summarize, over the last two years, Green Mountain has generated $281 million of net income, yet lost $2 million of operating cash flow, plus spent $410 million on cap ex and another $1,367 million on acquisitions – a total cash burn of $1.8 billion! This chart shows the company’s accelerating cash burn over the past three years: GMCR ('09) GMCR ('10) GMCR ('11) Operating Cash Flow $38 ($3) $1 Cap Ex $48 $126 $283 Free Cash Flow ($10) ($129) ($282) Acquisitions $41 $459 $908 FCF Minus Acquisitions ($51) ($588) ($1,190) So how has Green Mountain funded these huge cash flow deficits? By using cash, taking on debt, and issuing stock. Over the past two years, the company has seen its net cash position go from +$164 million to -$561 million, a swing of $725 million, plus it’s raised $990 million by selling stock, as this chart shows: GMCR ('09) GMCR ('10) GMCR ('11) Cash & Cash Equiv* $242 $4 $13 Debt $78 $354 $574 Net Cash (Debt) $164 ($350) ($561) Issuance of Common Stock $395 $9 $981 * Excludes restricted cash In summary, we question how Green Mountain will fund its $630-$700 million cap ex plan over the next 12 months. Even if one believes the midpoint of the company’s guidance of $2.60/share, this only translates into $414 million of net income, plus the balance sheet is likely to continue consuming cash. We think investors will not look kindly on more debt, nor issuing stock at depressed prices, yet the company almost certainly will have to do one or the other. Conclusion We’re long Netflix because we think the bad news is out, we like the company’s balance sheet and cash flows, and see few red flags. In contrast, with Green Mountain, we think there is much more bad news to come, are very concerned about the company’s balance sheet and cash flows, and see many red flags. -10-
  • 11. T2 Accredited Fund, LP (the “Fund”) commenced operations on January 1, 1999. The Fund’s investment objective is to achieve long-term after-tax capital appreciation commensurate with moderate risk, primarily by investing with a long-term perspective in a concentrated portfolio of U.S. stocks. In carrying out the Partnership’s investment objective, the Investment Manager, T2 Partners Management, LLC, seeks to buy stocks at a steep discount to intrinsic value such that there is low risk of capital loss and significant upside potential. The primary focus of the Investment Manager is on the long-term fortunes of the companies in the Partnership’s portfolio or which are otherwise followed by the Investment Manager, relative to the prices of their stocks. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in the Fund’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent the Fund’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. All recommendations within the preceding 12 months or applicable period are available upon request. Performance results shown are for the T2 Accredited Fund, LP and are presented net of management fees, brokerage commissions, administrative expenses, other operating expenses of the Fund, and accrued performance allocation or incentive fees, if any. Net performance includes the reinvestment of all dividends, interest, and capital gains. Performance for the most recent month is an estimate. The fee schedule for the Investment Manager includes a 1.5% annual management fee and a 20% incentive fee allocation. For periods prior to June 1, 2004, the Investment Manager’s fee schedule included a 1% annual management fee and a 20% incentive fee allocation, subject to a 10% “hurdle” rate. In practice, the incentive fee is “earned” on an annual, not monthly, basis or upon a withdrawal from the Fund. Because some investors may have different fee arrangements and depending on the timing of a specific investment, net performance for an individual investor may vary from the net performance as stated herein. The return of the S&P 500 and other indices are included in the presentation. The volatility of these indices may be materially different from the volatility in the Fund. In addition, the Fund’s holdings differ significantly from the securities that comprise the indices. The indices have not been selected to represent appropriate benchmarks to compare an investor’s performance, but rather are disclosed to allow for comparison of the investor’s performance to that of certain well- known and widely recognized indices. You cannot invest directly in these indices. Past results are no guarantee of future results and no representation is made that an investor will or is likely to achieve results similar to those shown. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. This document is confidential and may not be distributed without the consent of the Investment Manager and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or investment product. Any such offer or solicitation may only be made by means of delivery of an approved confidential offering memorandum. -11-